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Jon Ralph's big early predictions for 2022


FlashInThePan
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28 minutes ago, Grapeviney said:

Early prediction: If Luke Jackson isn’t re-signed by June, West Coast will be offering him $7 million over six years as the franchise target of their rebuild for 2023 and beyond.

I love these kind of nonsense ‘predictions’. Even if the Eagles want LJ he’s a former number 3 pick whose only gone up in value - meaning we’d want the equivalent of a number 1 pick and another top 10 to contemplate a trade.

So they’d essentially have to finish on the bottom to facilitate it and then give up something else - which isn’t how you rebuild a list if that’s what’s he’s trying to propose.

My Early Prediction: this isn’t happening.

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5 hours ago, Watson11 said:

His top 8 prediction is MFC, Port, Dogs, Lions, Cats, Bombers, Sydney, Tiges. 

So he is being bold this year and has GWS out and Tiges in. 

His 2021 top 8 prediction was just the 2020 top 8. No changes at all.

A few other things from the article.  He thinks if the dogs had a ruckman they would be premiers.  That's laughable considering they had the 14th ranked defence and no premier has been that bad defensively since they started measuring these things.  

He thinks the cats will be contenders again based on their bad injury run last year.  Fact: They had the second least games lost due to injury in 2021 behind us.

He thinks West Coast will be coming for LJ with an $8m 7-year contract 

 

Just so as I got this, everything virtually starts off with "he thinks"

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Come on guys and girls. Journos are paid for journalisiming. 

Have a look at your own 2021 predictions before you go backhanding his predictions.

I see Essedon and Adelaide as the rising powers in the coming years, and West Coast and Geelong as the big sliders. Geelong, ffs,

its OVER, let it go.

 

I've been negative for 4 decades based on experience, but this is a different beast. This MFC has talent, belief and commitment. We have multiple flags at our feet,.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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15 hours ago, Watson11 said:

His top 8 prediction is MFC, Port, Dogs, Lions, Cats, Bombers, Sydney, Tiges. 

So he is being bold this year and has GWS out and Tiges in. 

His 2021 top 8 prediction was just the 2020 top 8. No changes at all.

A few other things from the article.  He thinks if the dogs had a ruckman they would be premiers.  That's laughable considering they had the 14th ranked defence and no premier has been that bad defensively since they started measuring these things.  

He thinks the cats will be contenders again based on their bad injury run last year.  Fact: They had the second least games lost due to injury in 2021 behind us.

He thinks West Coast will be coming for LJ with an $8m 7-year contract 

 

This is sooo wrong. I reckon Cats and Tigers are on the edge of a massive cliff - Geelong moreso. Will it finally giveway this year, who  knows but the Giants are sneaky top 4 in my book. All they need is a good run with injuries and they will be a force to contend with. 

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13 hours ago, Jontee said:

If I can be frank, I haven't heard it before; well I have heard of frankfurts, not sure that counts....

Frankly, the new twist on the word 'frank' is full of limitations - ideal stuff to come from the journalists seeking credibility - yet it obviates a casualness in meaning. Frankly, typical fodder and in no way is it utilised as a means of passage of the initial intent.

 

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In my view the 3 locks for top 4 are Dees, Port and Lions.

History shows that sides who are beaten easily in a GF often drop off the year after, so I'm holding out on calling them Dogs a lock for top 4.

I think the Cats will drop out of the top 4, and while they should still sneak into the 8 there is a huge fall coming soon - could it be this season?

Tigers will get back into the 8, but I don't think they have the depth and talent to go all the way anymore. Over the last 2 seasons they have lost Brandon Ellis, Bachar Houli, David Astbury, Mabior Chol, Jack Higgins & Oleg Markov. Plus guys like Reiwoldt, Cotchin and Edwards are well into their 30's.

Both Essendon and Sydney will have to back up their form from 2021 and that isn't always easy for up and coming sides. I think at least one of them will drop out of the 8.

Final 8 prediction (pre finals):

1. Port Adelaide

2. Melbourne

3. Brisbane

4. Western Bulldogs

5. Geelong

6. GWS

7. Richmond

8. Essendon

Edited by Action Jackson
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1 hour ago, CYB said:

This is sooo wrong. I reckon Cats and Tigers are on the edge of a massive cliff - Geelong moreso. Will it finally giveway this year, who  knows but the Giants are sneaky top 4 in my book. All they need is a good run with injuries and they will be a force to contend with. 

Totally agree with this, and they don't have the rebuild systems like Hawks.Giants are just on the fringe.Twsnbn have the Papal blessings all the time so they are right.

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2 hours ago, CYB said:

This is sooo wrong. I reckon Cats and Tigers are on the edge of a massive cliff - Geelong moreso. Will it finally giveway this year, who  knows but the Giants are sneaky top 4 in my book. All they need is a good run with injuries and they will be a force to contend with. 

Agree.

I thought the Cats would miss the finals last season. Got that wrong obviously - but i think their finals campaign showed that despite another top 4 finish they were not a realistic premiership chance.

Which in turn was evidence that my in season assessment was correct that, contrary to the accepted wisdom ('it's so even this season - anyone down to 8 can win it!'), there were very few realistic flag chances. I think the same will be true next season too. 

With the kardina park leg up the Cat's probably make the 8, but i can't see them making the top 4, If they do make the top 4 its probably an indication of another season with very few realistic flag chances.

History say's it is unlikely Tigers will rise again. But funnily enough the fact they finished out of the 8 puts them ahead of the Cat's i think because, unlike the Cat's they have had a good post season break to freshen up and they got a first round draft pick.   

So they may might make the finals. But i certainly wouldn't be shocked if they don't. Like us, with the energy and singular focus their game plan demands, it all depends on their preparedness to do the work to get fit enough and desire to play manic, selfless football. 

I like the Giants, and hope they do well. I'm not sold on their game plan, but their intensity was fantastic this year and i reckon they are really turning into a hard working, blue collar club. As you say much depends on their injury status - they had wretched run last year, and in previous years for that mater.  if they have good run wit injury, i think they have the talent and focus for a top 4 finish.

The other two clubs i think will improve are the bombers and the dockers. Both clubs have copied our defensive system and they will reap the reward of another year of embedding that system it and building their fitness base. Other teams will struggle to score against them i think. 

Edited by binman
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Freo could be a strong candidate for the 8 assuming West Coast meander downwards.

We tend to overlook the guaranteed two games against the same city team that faces interstate teams.

Brisbane probably locks down its two games against GC.

Not so sure about the Sydney and Adelaide derbies. Could be an even split.

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To me 2022 is looking like one of the most even years of the competition, if you are off your game even a little you will get beaten.

Something about Port, I just see them as sliding down the ladder next season.  The 2 teams in the West will be interesting Fremantle are building a pretty good list and WCE have 1-2 years left before really falling off the cliff, similar to Geelong.

I think top 4 will be Melbourne, Brisbane, Sydney and Dogs not sure the order

Then Port, Geelong, Essendon, Carlton, WCE, Freo, GWS, Richmond, St Kilda fighting it out for the last 4 spots in the final 8.

Hawthorn will get the wooden spoon

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Warning ⚠️ on the Giants - look at their form with Mummy and without, they’re putting a lot of faith in Preuss getting on the park!

Also no Toby for the first 5 rounds. Coniglio would want to have a very good year.

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36 minutes ago, grazman said:

Warning ⚠️ on the Giants - look at their form with Mummy and without, they’re putting a lot of faith in Preuss getting on the park!

Also no Toby for the first 5 rounds. Coniglio would want to have a very good year.

If it is true that GWS are considering Toby Greene for captain, it suggests to me that GWS doesn't understand the important roles culture and selflessness play in making a premiership team. If Greene is appointed captain, I doubt GWS will even make the eight.

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I can only see improvement for port next year. Having Dursma, rozee and the other midfield guy back and uninjured will give them a big boost. The only question mark is can they shake off the mental demons that the prelim shellacking would have given them.

 West coast don’t have another year or two. The news hasn’t sunk in for them that they just fell off a cliff. They are currently just a dead man walking.

i honestly have no idea about Carlton. Can Voss sure up that defence with one preseason? Even if he can they may be more competitive but they won’t be making the 8.

 Essendon are the team most likely to go up a gear for mine, Adelaide the other. Freo may be coming but not next year, history tells us that new recruits are too inconsistent to bank on in their first or second year. I rate what they are building but I think it is another year or two away.

I just realised I am talking myself into no change in the top right… maybe tigers will knock out Sydney though.

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3 hours ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

😏 It’s actually The Angels, Aussie rock band from the 70s/80s, with classics such as Am I Ever Gonna See Your Face Again? No way. Get effed. Eff off. 
You’re welcome 😉 

Described them clearly...

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19 minutes ago, FlashInThePan said:

I can only see improvement for port next year. Having Dursma, rozee and the other midfield guy back and uninjured will give them a big boost. The only question mark is can they shake off the mental demons that the prelim shellacking would have given them.

 West coast don’t have another year or two. The news hasn’t sunk in for them that they just fell off a cliff. They are currently just a dead man walking.

i honestly have no idea about Carlton. Can Voss sure up that defence with one preseason? Even if he can they may be more competitive but they won’t be making the 8.

 Essendon are the team most likely to go up a gear for mine, Adelaide the other. Freo may be coming but not next year, history tells us that new recruits are too inconsistent to bank on in their first or second year. I rate what they are building but I think it is another year or two away.

I just realised I am talking myself into no change in the top right… maybe tigers will knock out Sydney though.

I like Adelaide too. They have a hard working midfield. They are similar to the Doggies in that they can attack and score but equally can be scored against heavily. They put a lot of speed on the ball, which makes for a great spectacle when it works. 

However the Taylor Walker situation is a big mess and it may impact them coming into next year as he was a focal point in the f50. Not sure whether he plays in the first quarter/half of the season either.

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The Dogs and then the Lions and Giants are our biggest threats IMO.

The Dogs will potentially add Bruce, JUH and/or Darcy to the forward line next year. They were the only top side to beat us last year.

The Lions were well on top of us in Sydney and will get Rayner back from his knee.

The Giants have never had a decent run at it with injuries but have an excellent midfield.

Of the other main challengers, Port are not good enough and the Cats too old.

The Bombers would also be a sneaky chance, especially if Rance makes a comeback. Sydney have a chance but would need Buddy to maintain his health.

The Blues don't have the midfield depth.

WCE and Richmond look cooked.

I think the market has our odds right at around $4. (Maybe we should be $3.50.) The Dogs at $7 looks overs IMO.

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2 hours ago, grazman said:

Warning ⚠️ on the Giants - look at their form with Mummy and without, they’re putting a lot of faith in Preuss getting on the park!

Also no Toby for the first 5 rounds. Coniglio would want to have a very good year.

I'd be thinking at GWS  this year , we win the first five games without the [censored], if i was coaching them. Then switch em on to do it and let the rest of the year roll..

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1 hour ago, Fat Tony said:

The Dogs and then the Lions and Giants are our biggest threats IMO.

The Dogs will potentially add Bruce, JUH and/or Darcy to the forward line next year. They were the only top side to beat us last year.

The Lions were well on top of us in Sydney and will get Rayner back from his knee.

The Giants have never had a decent run at it with injuries but have an excellent midfield.

Of the other main challengers, Port are not good enough and the Cats too old.

The Bombers would also be a sneaky chance, especially if Rance makes a comeback. Sydney have a chance but would need Buddy to maintain his health.

The Blues don't have the midfield depth.

WCE and Richmond look cooked.

I think the market has our odds right at around $4. (Maybe we should be $3.50.) The Dogs at $7 looks overs IMO.

Darcy will get a few games but be a non-factor like JUH this year

I'm not overly sure Bruce will play next year if JUH looks any good in year 2, considering he did his knee in round 20 odd

Port have a fair bit of natural improvement in them, got a very good group of young players

Edited by adonski
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