Tonight’s Draft - The First Crack

[Whispering_Jack 27,925]

One of the results of the Covid19 pandemic is that it will take a while before the outcome of last year’s AFL National Draft can be judged. And if 2020 turned out to be an enigma for recruiters then tonight’s national draft is going to be just as difficult for AFL clubs even though we saw a little more football than we did last year.

You might not appreciate this if you pick up today’s newspaper or look at on line sites given that nearly every draft expert is predicting an identical top five as follows:- 

1. Jason Horne-Francis (South Adelaide, SA) 
2.  Sam Darcy (Oakleigh Chargers/Vic Metro) 
3. Finn Callaghan (Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro) 
4.  Nick Daicos (Oakleigh Chargers/Vic Metro) 
5. Mac Andrew (Dandenong Stingrays/Vic Country)

You can just about lock that in as my draft top 5 for tonight but if you think that this is the order from 1 to 5 of the best players available in this year’s draft pool, then you need to think again. The outcome above is a combination of the machinations of the AFL draft system and the fact that drafting has been compromised by Covid19. 

Writing in the Herald Sun’s on line section (no link available), former Hawthorn star and “recruiting guru” Gary Buckenara cautioned that the limited number of games and the inability in 2020 and 2021 of recruiters to travel and see players playing live was a major issue. Often clubs have had to rely on the use of video analysis and local part time staff and this is not ideal. Buckenara maintains that the best way to form an opinion about players is to view their games in person. 

“You cannot actually pick up everything about a player by analysing videos and stats and relying on these two forms of analysis is lazy recruiting”.

My reading of much of the draft coverage of the past week confirms this about many of the leading experts in the field. The pen pictures that have been posted about certain players bear such a resemblance to each other that it couldn’t be coincidental. So please forgive me for joining the lazy sheep in posting my top five as above.

You would be aware by now that, despite his potential as a future player, I wouldn’t place over-hyped Melbourne’s NGA player, Mac Andrew, in my top twenty “power rating” but spare a thought for GWS Academy player Josh Fahey who will probably have to wait until tomorrow night to be drafted without much fanfare by the Giants in the 20s. Fahey was his team’s only four quarter player for the Australian Academy when it was thrashed by 130 points by Geelong VFL and named its best player. Andrew was unsighted in that game for three quarters but put in a solid final term which catapulted him into top twenty draft rankings.

Good luck to both of them in 2022 when they start the season as equals in their quests for long AFL careers. The way things look at the moment, I’ll be cheering Blake Howes from my NAB Boys League club, the Sandy Dragons because most of the draft pundits have already decreed this to be the case.

[durango 1,976]

A good analysis but the MFC will be picking a player who JT think is the best available or best player for a position where we are thin.

I still thing Mac Andrew is over rated at this stage of his career and if the Suns do a Jack Watts with him he may endup a washout in the future because rushing young players causes them to doubt their ability and belonging at the highest level, causing them to stagnate and never reach their potential al la Colin Sylvia and Jack Watts.

When a player is properly developed and the coach is patient you get a star al la Christian Petracca.

[Freddy Fuschia 661]

Fahey will be a good steady footballer for GWS but he didn't attract attention because he's not flambouyant and there's nothing out of the ordinary about him. Andrew has a great highlights package but the question mark is can he do that consistently at a high level?

[Demon Disciple 10,902]

JT has said we are more so this year compared to other years, now looking to bring in players based on needs as opposed to best available. Understandable given we now have a premiership list and want to contend for as long as possible.

[Viscount Cardwell 153]

well I'll have a crack at JT's needs basis for tonight, it's between Jacob Van Rooyen and Blake Howes for mine. FFWD or a hybrid forward of the Gunstan mould. Tomorrow night might throw up Toby Conway or Jack Williams Ruck vs FFWD/ruck. Then Taj, keep the other pick for a train on or Andy MW as a Cat B rookie.

Edited November 24, 2021 by Viscount Cardwell
spelling

[Demon Disciple 10,902]

I’ll be tuning in tonight, purely to hear us being congratulated for winning the 2021 premiership.

 

[Lucifers Hero 36,983]

Not directly related to the Dees, but highly likely events (from what I have read):

1) a variety of live-pick trades in the first round and that affect the first round. eg GWS trade out their second pick for future picks.   Lions bundle up their first 2 to move up the order, Hawthorn swap 21 and 24 to get another first round pick.  Will Geelong bundle up 22 and 23 to get another first round pick.  

So a few surprises on the cards as to draft order (after the first 4/5) and who slides out of and who bolts in the first round. 

2)  Freo will be up all night fielding offers for pick 19 (pre F/S); the first pick tomorrow.  Players who were in top 20 calculations that have already slid out of the top 20 by at least one of the more notable phantom drafters:  Goater, Van Rooyen, Chesser, Draper, Butler.  Others might join them.  Plenty of clubs will want that pick 19.  

3) Low-mid 20 picks will also be valuable for clubs who want a slider.  Current holders of those picks are:

20    North Melbourne
21    Hawthorn 
22    Geelong 
23    Western Bulldogs (highly likely to trade it to Geelong for two 30-something picks)
24    Hawthorn

Would be surprised if there isn't a bit wheeling and dealing with that lot!!

Edited November 24, 2021 by Lucifers Hero

[Lucifers Hero 36,983]

Lots more on possible pick trades here:  latest-news-updates-whispers-live-trades

This I found interesting:  "Clubs that could trade up into this part of the draft include Brisbane (Picks 16 and 20) and Melbourne (Pick 19), who are considering getting ahead of Essendon (Pick 13) and Port Adelaide (Pick 14) in the order. That’s because all four clubs have been linked to Northern Knights defender Darcy Wilmot, who now looms as hot property in the middle of the draft and could be central to how the rest of the round pans out".

Both Lions and Demons have been linked to the same players for a while so it is no surprise to see some jockeying by the two to climb up the order.  Not sure we have the currency to out gun Brisbane who still have their 2022 first round pick to play with.

[Skuit 9,112]

8 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

2) As a result of the 'sliders', Freo will be up all night fielding offers for pick 19; the first pick tomorrow.  Players who were in top 20 calculations have already slid out of the top 20 by at least one of the more notable phantom drafters:  Goater, Van Rooyen, Chesser, Daper, Butler.  Others might join them.  Plenty of clubs will want that pick 19.

Not just Freo's 19. The limited history of live trading has seen a lot of movement in behind that first pick of the second round in the early-to-mid 20s, and some pretty decent rewards offered up. Good players are undoubtedly going to slip in this draft, and that's why I think we should slide with them. 

We've been drafting a year ahead, have a mostly healthy list balance with an abundance of young talent, and have JT sitting at the desk. Oh, and we're the premiership front-runners. These factors, plus the extra uncertainty of recruiting during a pandemic, offer a unique opportunity and I believe we should attempt to cash in.

Dangle 17 in front of Hawthorn for example to move back to the early second round at 21, and then dangle that again overnight to a mid-20's team such as Richmond if there are still players on the board we think are good value. Then maybe even go again. We could come out of it with a trio of mid second-round players or possibly even more across two drafts for the price of a 17. 

That's a potential return of Bowey, Sparrow and Fritsch or whatever else JT manages to uncover. Or we could pool our gains to take a stab at some genuine top-end talent next year during a period we're unlikely to have much in the way of natural draft cookies. 

[Lucifers Hero 36,983]

28 minutes ago, Skuit said:

Not just Freo's 19. The limited history of live trading has seen a lot of movement in behind that first pick of the second round in the early-to-mid 20s, and some pretty decent rewards offered up. Good players are undoubtedly going to slip in this draft, and that's why I think we should slide with them. 

We've been drafting a year ahead, have a mostly healthy list balance with an abundance of young talent, and have JT sitting at the desk. Oh, and we're the premiership front-runners. These factors, plus the extra uncertainty of recruiting during a pandemic, offer a unique opportunity and I believe we should attempt to cash in.

Dangle 17 in front of Hawthorn for example to move back to the early second round at 21, and then dangle that again overnight to a mid-20's team such as Richmond if there are still players on the board we think are good value. Then maybe even go again. We could come out of it with a trio of mid second-round players or possibly even more across two drafts for the price of a 17. 

That's a potential return of Bowey, Sparrow and Fritsch or whatever else JT manages to uncover. Or we could pool our gains to take a stab at some genuine top-end talent next year during a period we're unlikely to have much in the way of natural draft cookies. 

 

That is what I said in point 3) of the post you quoted but curiously deleted it from the quoted post 🤔  

The deleted part of my post is below.

55 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

3) Low-mid 20 picks will also be valuable for clubs who want a slider.  Current holders of those picks are:

20    North Melbourne
21    Hawthorn 
22    Geelong 
23    Western Bulldogs (highly likely to trade it to Geelong for two 30-something picks)
24    Hawthorn

Would be surprised if there isn't a bit wheeling and dealing with that lot!!

There are many permutations of pick swaps for us and other clubs and yeah giving up pick 17 for two in the low 20's is one. 

Edited November 24, 2021 by Lucifers Hero

[kryton101 334]

How nice is it that the draft night is not one of the biggest things on our footy calendar?!  We are not having to find the club’s saviour.

[Jontee 3,634]

2 hours ago, Demon Disciple said:

JT has said we are more so this year compared to other years, now looking to bring in players based on needs as opposed to best available. Understandable given we now have a premiership list and want to contend for as long as possible.

JT has said a number of times that we will go for what we need rather than best available so I am assuming we will go tall;  unless of course our need is best available player

[kryton101 334]

Also really not looking forward to all the ‘swooping’ and ‘pouncing’ when clubs are reported on for their selections.

[durango 1,976]

Maybe they are swooning in hope since the selections will be seen on the smallest body of work in the history of recruiting, the 2020 draft may have played very little football but at least they played a full season in 2019, whereas this year no 2020 and very little 2021 in Victoria where most recruits are taken.

WA and SA have had a good 2021 but who knows what the standard was. 

[Deeman 1,399]

Looking forward to one of the recruiters at some club to fall asleep on screen.

[demon3165 1,908]

Next year we will have our neck right in it because as much as we have a load of talent not all can get games so some will want to leave or we will trade some harsh but fact.

[Supreme_Demon 3,009]

It's certainly a weird feeling about this year's AFL National Draft.

As a Melbourne supporter this is usually the highlight of the year with a top Draft pick! Especially as it would be due to having finished near the bottom of the ladder after another poor season.

Now it's a bit of "shrug your shoulders" occasion due to being the 2021 AFL Premiers! What a luxury! Oh well, it's nice to not have to worry about hoping we get a top 5 Draft pick who will help turn around our Club. I remember many years ago watching the 1997 AFL Draft when it was on Channel 7 and we had the number 1# Draft pick that year and recruited Travis Johnstone from the Dandenong Stingrays!

Nevertheless, I will still watch the 2021 AFL National Draft though as I do enjoy it. But I won't need to be stressed about it as I much as I have been over years gone by. 

 

Edited November 24, 2021 by Supreme_Demon

[Deemania since 56 6,122]

We're going to get one or two rippers, tonight, downlisting - and pick up Woey's son - and develop two or five absolute stars from across the current listings. Happy with that, heh?

[Demonland 64,416]

5 minutes ago, Deemania since 56 said:

We're going to get one or two rippers, tonight, downlisting - and pick up Woey's son - and develop two or five absolute stars from across the current listings. Happy with that, heh?

The draft is being held over two nights with only the first round happening this evening. That means Taj Woewodin's drafting is likely to happen tomorrow night.

[DubDee 20,356]

They are sticking with the 2 night format?  coz it was so entertaining last year?!?

good lord.  I'll tape it and watch the 15 minutes of content from the 2 hours

[Demon Disciple 10,902]

Strung out over 2 nights 🤮

COVID was around this time last year and they still had it on the 1 night. Only good reason to have it go for so long over 2 nights is so that Gil can fawn over how good the GF was, and no matter the topic he should steer the conversation back towards the MFC’s greatness.

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 10,570]

I think the most entertaining and interesting watch out of all this is the video of Jason Taylor and the recruiting team going through their options and then locking in the picks, like the ones for the Jackson, Picket, Rivers 2019 draft and the Bowey, Laurie 2020 draft posted reciently on the MFC website. 

Fascinating and inspiring watching, but I  don't think that gets released anywhere near the actually draft night, so best we get is a rap up from JT and pretty much bank it that whatever her tells us about the players is what we'll see running around in our best 22 over the next few years.

In JT we trust.

[Roger Mellie 3,483]

44 minutes ago, DubDee said:

They are sticking with the 2 night format?  coz it was so entertaining last year?!?

good lord.  I'll tape it and watch the 15 minutes of content from the 2 hours

^ This!

It was horrendous, although I'm sure it was more than 2 hours of torture.

I recall the clubs would lock in their picks and sit back waiting...... and then a whole lot of nothing....minutes would pass before some twit would appear from behind a curtain and announce who said pick was. It was excruciatingly bad coverage.

I didn't think it would be possible to drag it out more than they did, but I was wrong. Some poor draftee would be dragged out to stammer - they just wanted to earn the respect of their team mates, followed by some Shifter Sheehan gems (Uggh) and more awkward silence while waiting for the commodore computers to catch up.

[Colm 1,473]

I predict we get Wilmot. We move up the order and take GWS pick 13 in a deal that will also involve some of Collingwoods future picks. 
But whatever JT does I’ll be happy with. 
It’s going to be a boring to watch but I’m still looking forward to it. Excited to see who’s the lucky draftee is that gets to join our young and talented list. 

[Lucifers Hero 36,983]

The first draftee will be called soon and other than a news article about draft order there isn't anything useful on the AFL website to track pick swaps or draftees as they are called.   One would think all that would be in the 'Draft Hub'.  But, no...

Edit.  Fox have created something rather rudimentary but it is better than nothing afl-draft-live-picks-every-pick-by-every-club-updates-full-draft-order-trades-draft-value-index

Would rather check in there every now and then than sit thru endless waffle.

Edited November 24, 2021 by Lucifers Hero