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Farewell Luke Jackson


Lucifers Hero

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22 minutes ago, Lord Travis said:

By the same token, the best players, especially tall forwards, are usually highly talented juniors taken in the first round of the draft.

100% I agree with you. If you want a dominant key forward history shows that it's almost entirely in the first round because it's such a difficult skill set. My comment was only in relation to the correlation between underage goal kickers and dominant AFL forwards, not the value picking a key forward int he first round of the draft. There are a lot of ways to kick goals in juniors, it's a recruiter's job to know (and detect) what parts of a player's game translates from juniors to AFL .... and that's really tough!

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8 minutes ago, Lord Travis said:

If you want to phrase it that way, then yes! 

What's in Jackson's head and anything to do with him as a person is now irrelevant as he's not part of our club or future.

What's in Tim Lamb's head is relevant as he's still part of our club and his decision making shapes our clubs future.

So,  we shouldn't discuss anything about other clubs and their players as they are not part of our club or future? You surely don't believe that.   If discussion about Jackson annoys you, just ignore it. 

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3 hours ago, binman said:

Since when is as an adult, considering the advice, and perhaps also feelings, of your parents when making big life decisions a bad thing (to be clear LT, i know you are not saying it is)?

I wish my 19 year old son would take some of my bloody advice and consider my feelings every now and then!

My 7yo constantly disregards my advice and feelings Bin. The three year old is the complete opposite.

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1 hour ago, Lord Travis said:

That's a completely valid point. No draft pick is a certainty and there's been plenty of top 5 picks who went on to be duds. We've had more than our fair share of them!

By the same token, the best players, especially tall forwards, are usually highly talented juniors taken in the first round of the draft. If you look at the Coleman medal winners, nearly every one for over a decade has been a first rounder.

2022 - Curnow - first round pick
2021 - H McKay - first round pick
2020 - Hawkins - father son pick
2019 - J Cameron - underage pre-draft (first round equivalent)
2018 - J Reiwoldt - first round pick
2017 - Franklin - first round pick
2016 - J Kennedy - first round pick
2015 - J Kennedy - first round pick
2014 - Franklin - first round pick
2013 - J Roughead - first round pick
2012 - J Reiwoldt - first round pick
2011 - Franklin - first round pick
2010 - J Reiwoldt - first round pick

It's up to the recruiters to determine if they think Cadman's physical attributes, skillset, and personality mean he will flourish at AFL level or not. Based on his output and data on previous draftees, he's more likely to become a winner than not. No guarantees though! 

I agree with your point.  The gun forwards that you can build your side around are generally top picks.  If we are in the position to draft Cadman,  then along with JVR we have a good chance of having at least one gun KPF over the next 10 years.  Look at how quickly Richmond and Geelong are able to rebuild on the run - it is in part from having quality key position forwards at the peak of their powers.  It is easier to bring in midfielders / defenders when you have the big key forward sorted.

And who knows, Petty might become a gun forward himself if played there regularly next year.

Will be interesting to see how this plays out - if could all be for nothing if North rate Cadman highly and draft him with their first pick (should they retain it).

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1 hour ago, Lord Travis said:

That's a completely valid point. No draft pick is a certainty and there's been plenty of top 5 picks who went on to be duds. We've had more than our fair share of them!

By the same token, the best players, especially tall forwards, are usually highly talented juniors taken in the first round of the draft. If you look at the Coleman medal winners, nearly every one for over a decade has been a first rounder.

2022 - Curnow - first round pick
2021 - H McKay - first round pick
2020 - Hawkins - father son pick
2019 - J Cameron - underage pre-draft (first round equivalent)
2018 - J Reiwoldt - first round pick
2017 - Franklin - first round pick
2016 - J Kennedy - first round pick
2015 - J Kennedy - first round pick
2014 - Franklin - first round pick
2013 - J Roughead - first round pick
2012 - J Reiwoldt - first round pick
2011 - Franklin - first round pick
2010 - J Reiwoldt - first round pick

It's up to the recruiters to determine if they think Cadman's physical attributes, skillset, and personality mean he will flourish at AFL level or not. Based on his output and data on previous draftees, he's more likely to become a winner than not. No guarantees though! 

True but they are often not top 3 picks.  I think only Roughhead from that list is.

Think Patton, Watts, Boyd, Schache, McCartin - all absolute gun fwds in juniors and done very little.  Picking a tall fwd with a top 3 pick is risky for sure

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9 minutes ago, DubDee said:

True but they are often not top 3 picks.  I think only Roughhead from that list is.

Think Patton, Watts, Boyd, Schache, McCartin - all absolute gun fwds in juniors and done very little.  Picking a tall fwd with a top 3 pick is risky for sure

Boyd delivers in a GF, money well spent, if we were offered a gun FF for season '22 @ 1mil with another Premiership, well I would have put into that kitty.

McCartin has the worst run of luck and then some, now a gun and likely playing in a GF as a key position player. 

The draft positions weren't wrong, more probable than not.

Watts, well I will always think he could've been managed better.

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5 minutes ago, drysdale demon said:

According to channel 7 a new suitor has emerged for Jackson. Not sure if they have only just worked that the Eagles may be interested.

League to announce a third WA team?

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25 minutes ago, drysdale demon said:

According to channel 7 a new suitor has emerged for Jackson. Not sure if they have only just worked that the Eagles may be interested.

Perhaps North via the PSD to keep Eagles honest.

The more the merrier but his mum has said "welcome home"

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3 hours ago, Axis of Bob said:

100% I agree with you. If you want a dominant key forward history shows that it's almost entirely in the first round because it's such a difficult skill set. My comment was only in relation to the correlation between underage goal kickers and dominant AFL forwards, not the value picking a key forward int he first round of the draft. There are a lot of ways to kick goals in juniors, it's a recruiter's job to know (and detect) what parts of a player's game translates from juniors to AFL .... and that's really tough!

Good point, the anti density rules in U18s make it a very different ball game when compared to AFL level defensive setups.

 

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10 hours ago, old55 said:

Some posters live in dreamland, there is no way WC is going to trade pick 2 for LJ, Freo can't get anywhere near that and WC have the PSD safety net. The best achievable outcome from WC would be a top 10 pick from a split of 2, plus their pick 20.

Jackson is going to Fremantle anyway, it has clearly been arranged for ages, WC involvement just keeps Freo honest.

Why not?

If they looked at it logically & said “going forward, would we happier having X player on our list that we rate as pick 2, or Jackson?” I think they’d go for Jackson. But it doesn’t matter what I think, it matters what they’d say.

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11 hours ago, old55 said:

Some posters live in dreamland, there is no way WC is going to trade pick 2 for LJ, Freo can't get anywhere near that and WC have the PSD safety net. The best achievable outcome from WC would be a top 10 pick from a split of 2, plus their pick 20.

Jackson is going to Fremantle anyway, it has clearly been arranged for ages, WC involvement just keeps Freo honest.

...unless they trade out 20 and a player for another top 10 pick, but yeah, the Dees will try to get Jacko to his preferred destination.

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1 hour ago, Mach5 said:

Why not?

If they looked at it logically & said “going forward, would we happier having X player on our list that we rate as pick 2, or Jackson?” I think they’d go for Jackson. But it doesn’t matter what I think, it matters what they’d say.

Because they wouldn't have to to get it done.

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1 hour ago, Boots and all said:

...unless they trade out 20 and a player for another top 10 pick, but yeah, the Dees will try to get Jacko to his preferred destination.

but surely only if they offer decent compensation.  
IF WCE made a far better offer then we do have to look after our own interests first, and he would still be over there near his mum.  

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7 hours ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Looks like WCE are back in the game, altho they may be leaving their run a bit late: 

At this stage Tim, no it’s not,” O’Brien said in response to whether pick No.2 is on the table...“If we get the opportunity to trade for Luke, we can split selections to generate more, we’ve got future selections and there’s player trades.

O’Brien says that while he and his team are yet to contact Melbourne or Jackson’s management they won’t be “gun shy” in negotiations.  “We haven’t spoken to Melbourne yet at all, I’ll contact Tim Lamb in the coming days and start working through that,” O’Brien said.  “But we also need to get in front of Luke and his management to find out their position as well and put our case forward to hopefully convince him that we’re the right club to come to.

SEN

My only prediction for the silly season is this;

I think West Coast’s list manager (completely unknown to me until today) has the potential to get to Adrian Dodoro/ Peter Bell levels of unlikeability and Mark Neeld/Barry Prendergast levels of incompetence.

- he isn’t going to be ‘gun shy’ (but has already taken pick 2 off the table)

- has expressed serious level of confidence in convincing Jackson and getting the deal done (but hasn’t spoken to him yet).

Come on old mate.

 

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