GRAND FINAL: Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs

[Fork 'em 6,506]

 

5 hours ago, pinkshark said:

Dont know what to say don't know what to write.  Want to say something profound and inspiring but again, it means nothing.  I'm all over the effing shop!  blah wahblahyayada yada yada.  kjbfiuryshvio;asuxfiojsio'g.mn,buyth.

All that matters is how we perform in the grand final.

Come on MFC!!!!

The boys are gonna do what they've done all year and take the forken flag.
That's what they're gonna forken do.
Kick straight and we'll be celebrating by 3/4 time.

[binman 37,748]

1 hour ago, Fat Tony said:

Keep posting Binman. You are providing the glass is half full view that we all need right now.

In any previous season I would have been accused of being a happy clapper who accepts mediocrity and is part of the reason why the demons will never be successful. . 

[Timothy Reddan-A'Blew 3,797]

1 hour ago, Mr Steve said:

Bloody hell how many more sleeps is it now. 

You're sleeping?

[pinkshark 935]

4 hours ago, binman said:

I'm not disagreeing with the point he is making about the round 19 game, but fair dinkum, David King is all over the shop. He swings more than marriages in the1970's. 

He gets a direct mainline of champion data stats and whatever he bangs on about is directly related to what he has read before he comes on air.

In that same slot last week, or perhaps on First crack (he just repeats his talking points on that show the following day on SEN) he said the Cats v Dees PF was  'a genuine 50 50 game'.

A 50 - 50 game? Please. What load of nonsense. 

And this is not hindsight.

The bookies had us at $1.50 to win that game, not even money. And before anyone says the dogs win show that punting odds are meaningless $1.50 still gives the other team at 30 odd percent chance of winning.

Of course the odds not absolute. But they are very good measure of probability (i think the most reliable measure), particularly when pools are as big as they were for the PF, because there is real investment, most of which by professional punters who back their expertise with real money, not glib opinions. 

Part of his rationale for the PF being a flip of the coin game was how close the round 23 game was and the fact thta the cats jumped out to a big lead. Which is just ridiculous.

Why?

Because in that game I'm pretty sure the Champion data 'expected score' had us wining by 4-5 goals. From memory Goody even referenced it in his post match presser.

So this week the 'expected score' is relevant for his assessment of the outcome of the GF, but wasn't for the PF?

And as goody also noted the stats at half time all looked how we like them to look, with the exception of the scores from centre clearances (an outlier as goody noted - which by the by is an interesting parallel to the Round 19 inside 50 stoppage goals as Goody noted that stat was an outlier too in his post match presser) and the goals we gave up in the second quarter. 

King, and many others, completely misread that game from a form perspective.

Way too much weight was put on their 44 point lead and nowhere enough on the fact they could only manage 2 goals (and only 5 scoring shots?) in the second half of a must win game. 

Or the fact that their leaders - Hawkins, Selwood and Dangerfield went missing in that last quarter. Or for that matter the utter toweling Max gave Stanley, another leader, in the last quarter. 

All of those factors pointed to the probability of what would happen in the PF - and ultimately did happen. And those factors are why the weight of money had us at $1.50 to win that game.

And King, a fella employed by Fox to do expert analysis, missed EVERY SINGLE one of them.

 

 

King will crash and burn sooner or later.  He is a [censored].  Hard core gambler supposedly and that rarely ends well.

I have not listened to punditry all year.  Has been liberating.  I read this forum (thank you all), the mfc website (which is pretty ordinary by the way, - thank god for Gus and Gawny) and I watch every second of every game.  That's all I need.

Go DEES

Edited September 14, 2021 by pinkshark

[Timothy Reddan-A'Blew 3,797]

1 hour ago, qarocks said:

...and Chris Grant for them.

1994 Semi Final:

G. Lyon - 18 disposals, 10 goals 4 behinds

C. Grant - 6 disposals, 2 goals 1 behind

I wish I believed in omens...

[qarocks 101]

[binman 37,748]

30 minutes ago, pinkshark said:

King will crash and burn sooner or later.  He is a [censored].  Hard core gambler supposedly and that rarely ends well.

 

I hope for his sake he does not punt on footy

[Clayton van Oliver 1,658]

I am failing to get anything productive done at the moment. How long to go? The time difference is too perfect. Wake up, check all the content thats already gone up in Aus, sit on demonland dreaming, suddenly it's the afternoon and another day has gone. Really need to get work done today. I'm gonna do it.

Ooh just saw that Gus & Gawny starts in 3 minutes.

[bing181 8,149]

38 minutes ago, AmDamDemon said:

Wake up, check all the content thats already gone up in Aus

Know it well. And no, not getting any work done here either!

[Coobs 174]

Is there any pub in Perth where demons will be congregating pre match?

[DeesFlag2020 90]

On 9/11/2021 at 10:37 PM, brendan said:

We are nice and settled in Perth, dogs still have to get there and quarantine, Bailey smith needs to be tagged and if we break even in the middle will go a long way to winning 

Our rucks are substantially better than their and we can match them in the mid field. It will be close all day but l predict we will overwhelm them in the final quarter. Go Dees!

[DeesFlag2020 90]

On 9/13/2021 at 7:47 AM, Pates said:

Plus they’ve managed to fluke themselves into gaining a top academy pick in Ugle-Hagen while it looks like academy pick will be lost to us. 

They may well have been the underdog battlers back when they won their drought breaking premiership but they’ve had the list to be right in the mix since and until now haven’t made good on it. The fact their were against the wall was thanks to that pitiful fade out against port in round 23. 

The first 5min will be interesting to see how it’s umpired, they still did more throws than the Melbourne storm against port that weren’t called. It baffles me that they get away with it. Their dream run with the umps is one of the big things that has me worried, that last match up was a joke with ALL 50/50 calls going their way and us just getting blatant frees not even called. 

One thing that I take from that last meeting in a positive way is that we didn’t play well for 90% of the game but still only lost by 20 points. Importantly though, same scoring shots, they were accurate and we weren’t. Kick straight Dees!

Partially agree, although l still think the Bullies are one of the better run clubs in the competition along with us, the Swans, Brisbane, and Eagles. It should be a great game…

[DubDee 20,332]

4 hours ago, Timothy Reddan-A'Blew said:

...and Chris Grant for them.

1994 Semi Final:

G. Lyon - 18 disposals, 10 goals 4 behinds

C. Grant - 6 disposals, 2 goals 1 behind

I wish I believed in omens...

My favourite game I ever attended. 10.4 in 3 quarters. Garry was a dead set gun in 94. If his back didn’t go, he would have kicked 700

[Dr. Gonzo 22,396]

16 hours ago, dee-tox said:

Didn't the AFL introduce a red card for grand finals to prevent Gaff-like hits? Knowing our luck Stevic will be one of the umpires and keen to put himself in the limelight by issuing the first ever red card! 😀 

No they did not.

[Dr. Gonzo 22,396]

11 hours ago, binman said:

I'm confused.

Do you love it? 

Or there is no way you will ever love it?

No way, I LOVE IT!!!!

♥️💙

😜

[qarocks 101]

26 minutes ago, DeesFlag2020 said:

Our rucks are substantially better than their and we can match them in the mid field. It will be close all day but l predict we will overwhelm them in the final quarter. Go Dees!

in the two matches this year Dees won center clearances while dogs won stoppage. it is likely we would win center clearances again in the GF.

[At the break of Gawn 3,474]

8 hours ago, binman said:

I'm not disagreeing with the point he is making about the round 19 game, but fair dinkum, David King is all over the shop. He swings more than marriages in the1970's. 

I was genuinely annoyed when I heard he had changed his mind for the Cats game. He lauded our performance against Brisbane and called us his no.1 seed. Then on the Sunday, leading up to the PF for first crack, instead of being as keen as Joey on us, he had unexpectedly cooled on us and called it a 50-50 game and made a remark how it’d be nice for Dangerfield to have a premiership tattoo!

Yesterday on Whately’s “means test” on SEN, Gerard made the comment that after Friday night he thought no one can beat Melbourne but then after Saturday night, he thought the Dogs performance was as equal to ours and hence he thought the GF would be a 50-50 game. King then disagreed with this and thought Melbourne were still the stronger team, but he did entertain Gerard’s idea by calling out this champion data expected score comment from rnd 19. I would not be surprised if King changed his mind multiple times before the actual morning of the GF.

[spirit of norm smith 12,833]

Stay focussed   This match is defining for all of us 

 

 

Edited September 14, 2021 by spirit of norm smith
Y

[Kick_It_To_Pickett 2,922]

Has anyone noticed how cocky the Dogs fans are on social media. They really believe this is all over and done with. I hope it rubs off on their players. The reasons they think they’ll win 1. We have not played as many games as them in the last month and they will be fitter??? 2. This is how they won in 2016! 3. Bailey Smith already has the Norm Smith.
 

As a supporter group, I reckon the Dogs have become completely unbearable. We had a  run in with a group in 2018. It was all the usual crud you get from Essendon or Hawthorn supports “have you ever seen a flag?” “When was your last flag” - like really? How quickly they were to forget.

This is another reason I went to kick this team’s rear end into next month. Absolutely cannot stand the Dogs.

[DemonWA 3,426]

8 hours ago, rpfc said:

Same. 

Now we will only get beaten if we fail to convert and/or by individual brilliance.

And we have some brilliant individuals ourselves…

If Bont and/or Naughton and/or Smith go crazy and beat us then I can live with that coz it’s going to have to happen for them to win.

Spot on. 

I feel like we're solid across the park, with our backs and mids particularly strong. 

If BBBBB and Kozzy play anywhere near the level that they did last Friday we should win. 

They have some stars too though. 

[faultydet 7,593]

8 minutes ago, Kick_It_To_Pickett said:

Has anyone noticed how cocky the Dogs fans are on social media. They really believe this is all over and done with. I hope it rubs off on their players. The reasons they think they’ll win 1. We have not played as many games as them in the last month and they will be fitter??? 2. This is how they won in 2016! 3. Bailey Smith already has the Norm Smith.
 

As a supporter group, I reckon the Dogs have become completely unbearable. We had a  run in with a group in 2018. It was all the usual crud you get from Essendon or Hawthorn supports “have you ever seen a flag?” “When was your last flag” - like really? How quickly they were to forget.

This is another reason I went to kick this team’s rear end into next month. Absolutely cannot stand the Dogs.

Every teams supporter are unbearable when they win a flag.

It's unfortunate for me that everyone I work with follows Drugby League and as such I have nobody to spend all of my unbearableness tickets on.

[Longsufferingnomore 1,457]

8 hours ago, longsuffering said:

I now feel confident enough to put this up. 1964 cup. We need another one.

This is what I should have posted🙄

[Cassiew 1,864]

We better win. We have only 9 years until Skynet takes over 

[At the break of Gawn 3,474]

9 hours ago, Kick_It_To_Pickett said:

Has anyone noticed how cocky the Dogs fans are on social media. They really believe this is all over and done with. I hope it rubs off on their players. The reasons they think they’ll win 1. We have not played as many games as them in the last month and they will be fitter??? 2. This is how they won in 2016! 3. Bailey Smith already has the Norm Smith.

It’s unbelievable how good they think Bailey Smith is. He’s literally hasn’t had someone play on him for the last 2 weeks. I have seen him play some awful footy this year, especially against the Hawks late in the season. I’m actually not worried about him at all.

I hope Goody watched the Hawks v Dogs game in rnd 21. Clarko did a masterclass on Bevo and there were no free roaming dogs players at any stoppage. I know sometimes Melbourne likes to have someone drop off at the back of the stoppage but it’s imperative we match their numbers otherwise they will roll through them with ease.

[old55 21,213]

It's Western's class versus Melbourne's power.  We can blunt their class with our pressure more than they can blunt our power.

We'll generate more scoring opportunities. If we kick straight we win.

Demons by 13 points

NSM: Clayton Oliver

Edited September 14, 2021 by Pollyanna