PF: Melbourne vs Geelong

[Jaded No More 57,746]

54 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

This is cool!

 

We are missing out on SO MUCH 😭😭😭

[At the break of Gawn 3,484]

1 hour ago, Watson11 said:

Cats have had some shocking last quarters.  Not just R23, but earlier in the season Brisbane and Hawks came from a long way back and both should have won.  Sydney came from behind and won.  In R4 against us they were in the game at 3Q time but we did it easy. GWS last week came from a long way back and got within 2 kicks, but after a shocking turnover/goal gws gave up.  

Their best fourth quarter was against port away where they took a small lead into the 4Q. But at the time they rolled the dice and did the hardest front-running I have seen all season. They had defenders rolling the dice and running into forward 50 for 50-50 stoppages on the wing. That can come off but usually doesn’t against good teams.

That said, I can only see them in this game if they roll the dice on offence and it works so still a bit worried.  But at the same time I would not be surprised if we hammer them.
 

This is a good analysis. I think if you look at their Semi-final, they did use the ball a bit more aggressively at times. The thing is, the Giants don't do zone defence at all - they are a one-on-one side in their defence and it's been pretty good for them all year. Unfortunately though, they give up a lot of inside 50s, and so eventually when you come up against some terrific forwards who are good at one-on-ones (such as Hawkins), the damn wall eventually breaks which is what we saw last week.

I don't think the Cats will move the ball as easily through Optus as they did last week due to our zone defence. I think you'll see them take less aggressive kicks. 

I watched some of the round 23 game last night again, and I think the fact that the game was at GMHBA had a massive influence on their ability to get on top. It's much easier to score off centre clearances, and it's also easier to get really deep entries. If you look at that period of play before they kicked those centre bounce goals, they got some decent looks from deep entries where our defenders were all one-on one. This was also from them winning at stoppage where we went one-on-one, and their pressure in the midfield (mainly from Parfitt) was huge. In the second half we put Salem a kick behind  the stoppage which had a huge impact and steadied us. I think I recall Montagna highlighting this on "First Crack". He said Melbourne went even numbers at the stoppage in the first half as we were desperate to get the ball in our half of the ground as we worried about taking the ball the length of the field against Geelong. I don't why this is but someone on here may know why. 

I know it's been said 1000 times before already, but this game will be won and lost in the midfield. Gawn is our most important player tomorrow and he needs to dominate Stanley in the ruck and give our mids first use. Stanley played out of his skin in the first half against us in round 23, and was a big reason why they got that run on. If we get our territory game up and running and it "looks like a Melbourne game" you'll see us with repeat entries and you'll see us take easy intercepts when they try and rebound.

 

[drdrake 3,037]

1 hour ago, CYB said:

I get where you are coming from, but its really difficult to change a game style and be good at it immediately. The stop, start, slow & deliberate ball movement has become second nature to the Cats. To change that so late in the season, i think is just too risky for them i.e. the way Adelaide try to break through our setup. 

The bigger ground will be both an advantage and disadvantage for us. There will be more space for the Cats to play their game but we will be able to cover the ground more effectively with our superior fitness. The simple defensive objective of this game is to stop their forwards taking marks inside 50. They are good at set shots and a large % of their scores last week were from set shots. If we cannot intercept, then we will need to bring the ball to ground and rebound or create a stoppage. 

We can break them early, get a fast start, do what port did get 5 goals up by Half time then just watch them fall to apart in the last half.  Each year you usually have 1 close Prelim and 1 that is a walk over, god I hope ours is the walk over.  

[Jaded No More 57,746]

Losing to Geelong in a prelim final is the second worst possible outcome of any footy season. The first being losing to Geelong in a grand final.

 

[dazzledavey36 48,693]

GEELONG will be forced to make one selection call for its clash against Melbourne.

Gun midfielder Brandan Parfitt has been ruled out of the rest of his club’s finals campaign due to a hamstring tear that will require surgery.

Zach Guthrie, who was subbed in for Parfitt during the semi-final win over the Giants, could be elevated into the starting 22, while Sam Simpson and veterans Shaun Higgins and Luke Dahlhaus are also candidates to replace him.

Foxfooty.com.au senior reporter Tom Morris reports Higgins trained with the main midfield group on Thursday while Gryan Miers and Zach Tuohy didn’t train as part of a lighter load this week, but there’s no suggestion they won’t play.

Defender Lachie Henderson was put through his paces in what appeared to be a fitness test while Darcy Fort was rucking, with Rhys Stanley running on the side of the session.

[jumbo returns 6,486]

Jeez....I'm nervous

[TRIGON 4,715]

1 hour ago, Jaded said:

We are missing out on SO MUCH 😭😭😭

Don't cry that it's over there, smile that it's happening!

[Gawndy the Great 7,306]

29 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

GEELONG will be forced to make one selection call for its clash against Melbourne.

Gun midfielder Brandan Parfitt has been ruled out of the rest of his club’s finals campaign due to a hamstring tear that will require surgery.

Zach Guthrie, who was subbed in for Parfitt during the semi-final win over the Giants, could be elevated into the starting 22, while Sam Simpson and veterans Shaun Higgins and Luke Dahlhaus are also candidates to replace him.

Foxfooty.com.au senior reporter Tom Morris reports Higgins trained with the main midfield group on Thursday while Gryan Miers and Zach Tuohy didn’t train as part of a lighter load this week, but there’s no suggestion they won’t play.

Defender Lachie Henderson was put through his paces in what appeared to be a fitness test while Darcy Fort was rucking, with Rhys Stanley running on the side of the session.

If they bring Darcy Fort in (in addition to the Rat), then they can kiss the PF final good-bye. Simirlarly if they bring Fort in at the expense of the Rat, its still a win for us - he has little game time this year and will be off the pace against a Gawn / LG combination. Cant blame them for trying.

Question marks on Miers and Tuohy fitness levels are interesting. I understand Tuohy who has just come back from injury needs to manage his loads, but cannot expect for him to be at 100% after his second game. 

[david_neitz_is_my_dad 3,925]

Seems like a lot of them are running on fumes atm

[Lucifers Hero 36,991]

25 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

GEELONG will be forced to make one selection call for its clash against Melbourne.

Gun midfielder Brandan Parfitt has been ruled out of the rest of his club’s finals campaign due to a hamstring tear that will require surgery.

Zach Guthrie, who was subbed in for Parfitt during the semi-final win over the Giants, could be elevated into the starting 22, while Sam Simpson and veterans Shaun Higgins and Luke Dahlhaus are also candidates to replace him.

Foxfooty.com.au senior reporter Tom Morris reports Higgins trained with the main midfield group on Thursday while Gryan Miers and Zach Tuohy didn’t train as part of a lighter load this week, but there’s no suggestion they won’t play.

Defender Lachie Henderson was put through his paces in what appeared to be a fitness test while Darcy Fort was rucking, with Rhys Stanley running on the side of the session.

They are looking like a team of the walking wounded.

• Miers, Tuohy didn't train
• Henderson and Stanley on light duties.   
• The first 3 have not long ago returned from late season injuries. 
• Dangerfield has broken fingers. 
• Rohan and Cameron came back not long ago from hamstring issues.

Work them over early, on the bigger Optus Stadium and see how fit they are or are not.  

[dazzledavey36 48,693]

2 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

They are looking like a team of the walking wounded.

• Miers, Tuohy didn't train
• Henderson and Stanley on light duties.   
• The first 3 have not long ago returned from late season injuries. 
• Dangerfield has broken fingers. 
• Rohan and Cameron came back not long ago from hamstring issues.

Work them over early, on the bigger Optus Stadium and see how fit they are or are not.  

Yep, sounds like they're banged up.

In fairness though, it was most likely their captains runs which is usually pretty chill and low key.

[rpfc 27,413]

3 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

They are looking like a team of the walking wounded.

• Miers, Tuohy didn't train
• Henderson and Stanley on light duties.   
• The first 3 have not long ago returned from late season injuries. 
• Dangerfield has broken fingers. 
• Rohan and Cameron came back not long ago from hamstring issues.

Work them over early, on the bigger Optus Stadium and see how fit they are or are not.  

Yes, they are a team that planned for the pre-finals bye.

They will start well and I expect Selwood and Danger to will themselves to dominate the clearances early. We need to weather that and counterpunch with quick movement. Get them late in quarters.

 

[binman 37,876]

19 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Work them over early, on the bigger Optus Stadium and see how fit they are or are not.  

Agree. And I reckon that is exactly what they will look to do.

Against the Lions they were switching in the first quarter more often than they normally do (and more often than they did in the other 3 quarters) and i reckon the will do the same again. Make the cats chase and spread.

It was no surprise that the Scott and players that were interviewed downplayed the significance of the round 23 loss after that game (and since really). What else were they going to say?

But the bottom line is losing meant they had to play Port in Adelaide off a 6 day break. And having lost that game had to play an extra game, that surely has fatigued their aging stars - particularly given there was no pre finals bye.

Not to mention having one of their young stars in Pariffit injured and Hawkins getting a massive Mummy corkie 5 minutes before the end of the game

 

Edited September 9, 2021 by binman

[Gorgoroth 12,308]

Was told today Touhy is sore, they had Zac Guthrie as sub last week cos they didn’t know if he could get through the game. 
 

My thoughts is who do we use on Smith, Langers or Brayshaw? Both have strengths and weaknesses and both can exploit him and vice versa. 
Smith is a big cog for them.

[Lucifers Hero 36,991]

18 minutes ago, rpfc said:

Yes, they are a team that planned for the pre-finals bye.

They will start well and I expect Selwood and Danger to will themselves to dominate the clearances early. We need to weather that and counterpunch with quick movement. Get them late in quarters.

Agreed.

They tried to start fast vs GWS by playing Selwood for 91% of the first quarter in the hope they would get a good lead.  But they kicked 2.5.  They got an unassailable lead but GWS were easy prey on that day.   Selwood's TOG dwindled during the game.  In the last 2 games he has been voted among the very worst on the ground.  

After Danger and Selwood will themselves in the first half I don't know they will have enough spark in the team to keep the momentum going.

[At the break of Gawn 3,484]

I think I have too much time or nervous energy this afternoon so I decided to look up historical betting odds to see what they were for the PF in 2018.

Want to hear a scary yet surprising fact?

WCE were $1.76 to win and Melbourne was $2.06

As it stands, we are $1.49 and the Cats are $2.65

I'm really surprised we were only $2.06 in 2018. My memory was that we were massive underdogs but maybe that's just skewed because we got belted. 

Edited September 9, 2021 by At the break of Gawn

[The Swimming Dee 1,838]

34 minutes ago, david_neitz_is_my_dad said:

Seems like a lot of them are running on fumes atm

Beware a wounded team...I'm very nervous

[binman 37,876]

6 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

 

They tried to start fast vs GWS by playing Selwood for 91% of the first quarter in the hope they would get a good lead.  But they kicked 2.5.  They got an unassailable lead but GWS were easy prey on that day.   Selwood's TOG dwindled during the game.  In the last 2 games he has been voted among the very worst on the ground.  

After Danger and Selwood will themselves in the first half I don't know they will have enough spark in the team to keep the momentum going.

There is no doubting the fact that Selwood is a champion of the game. But jeez he looked slow in the last quarter of their game against GWS.

And i know he had a head knock in the last quarter against us in round 23, but he had no impact in that last quarter - which is hardly ideal given he is starting mid not, say, a defensive forward or some such.

And perhaps it is a bit of confirmation bias on my part, but to my eye he looks to have some of the tell tale traits of a player the game has gone past - crude tackles, throwing, milking frees, cheating a bit in terms of running patterns (eg getting forward of the ball).  

[Jaded No More 57,746]

1 minute ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Agreed.

They tried to start fast vs GWS by playing Selwood for 91% of the first quarter in the hope they would get a good lead.  But they kicked 2.5.  They got an unassailable lead but GWS were easy prey on that day.   Selwood's TOG dwindled during the game.  In the last 2 games he has been voted among the very worst on the ground.  

After Danger and Selwood will themselves in the first half I don't know they will have enough spark in the team to keep the momentum going.

On the other hand, their first quarter record this year is also quite poor.

If we come out firing like we did against Brisbane and get a good 5-6 goal lead going into half time, I really just can't see how they run over the top of us.

While none of us want to let them open up a big lead like in round 23, Geelong will not feel at ease if they are just 4-5 goals up at any stage of the game, and that will mean their star players will have to motor for 120 minutes. 

My only concern with this game is our lack of experience. Will we let the occasion get the better of us? Will we let Geelong rough us up as they so love to do? Will we let the bias Geelong umpiring get into our head? 

If we play at our best, we will absolutely win this game. But even being 2 or 3 percent off is enough to lose this against a very experienced side that is desperate and knows this might well be their very last chance. And then you know, there is plain old bad luck like Hawkins breaking May's face "accidently", or some lucky goals etc etc that can swing a game. But so long as we control the things we can control, and play at our best, we should win.

[cookieboc 607]

I just don't know if they will have the game on their terms for long enough, they will have to play for more than a 20 minute period of the game to win.

Can they sustain their game style for a half of football or more? Their style is slow and relies on them keeping possession , I just don't know if they will be able to for long enough. There will definitely be periods where they will. 

The other thing is I think that they will need to adjust their game style/ plan to suit us, would they be able to do this for the entire game?  

[Lucifers Hero 36,991]

10 minutes ago, Jaded said:

On the other hand, their first quarter record this year is also quite poor.

If we come out firing like we did against Brisbane and get a good 5-6 goal lead going into half time, I really just can't see how they run over the top of us.

While none of us want to let them open up a big lead like in round 23, Geelong will not feel at ease if they are just 4-5 goals up at any stage of the game, and that will mean their star players will have to motor for 120 minutes. 

My only concern with this game is our lack of experience. Will we let the occasion get the better of us? Will we let Geelong rough us up as they so love to do? Will we let the bias Geelong umpiring get into our head? 

If we play at our best, we will absolutely win this game. But even being 2 or 3 percent off is enough to lose this against a very experienced side that is desperate and knows this might well be their very last chance. And then you know, there is plain old bad luck like Hawkins breaking May's face "accidently", or some lucky goals etc etc that can swing a game. But so long as we control the things we can control, and play at our best, we should win.

I think we can deal with those challenges and the likes of May and Brown will keep their young charges calm.  And, Geelong comments this week make them sound rattled.

The round 23 commentary is interesting.  Geelong say it was one bad qtr.  We know it was a 20 min bitz.  iirc we were tried something new in the first half:  an extra at stoppages and one less in defence.  They walked straight thru our defences.  Late in the 2nd qtr or at 3/4 time we reverted back to our normal structure: extra behind the ball, even numbers at stoppages.  They weren't ready for the switch and we ran them down.  Their scoring dried up and we went on a scoring spree.

Scott was out coached but no one will say it publicly.

Edited September 9, 2021 by Lucifer's Hero

[Jaded No More 57,746]

I am hoping the 8-10 minute period in round 23 where they smashed us in clearances has given us enough of a wake up call to realise that we absolutely cannot get smashed in the middle. We need to, at the very least, break even in clearances and make sure that when they do win a clearance, we pressure them enough to ensure they don't turn clearances into goals.

They kicked 4 or 5 goals from centre clearances in round 23 which opened up that massive gap in about 5 minutes of play. That is unacceptable, and I presume Viney, Clarry and Trac will be on this to ensure it doesn't happen again.
If we can pressure their ball carrier enough to get the ball bombed in high inside their 50, we should be able to nullify enough aerial contests down back, and run the ball out. Our ground ball game in defence isn't great, but Geelong's isn't much better. They have a tall forwardline that is largely immobile, and bringing in Ratogulia only makes that worse. 
While Scott wants to stretch us in the air, it is actually the ground ball that can really hurt us down back. This is where someone like Grey and Rosie would really worry me if we make the Grand Final and play Port. 

Their tagger (I forgot his name) is out injured. I don't think they will try to hard tag us, but I would like to see Viney do a job on Danger and really limit his involvement. While Selwood can still do a lot of damage, Dangerfield is their creative mid and playmaker. He is not at his best physically right now, and Viney needs to really exploit that. 

[Lucifers Hero 36,991]

2 minutes ago, Jaded said:

Their tagger (I forgot his name) is out injured. I don't think they will try to hard tag us, but I would like to see Viney do a job on Danger and really limit his involvement. While Selwood can still do a lot of damage, Dangerfield is their creative mid and playmaker. He is not at his best physically right now, and Viney needs to really exploit that. 

Their tagger is Connor and usually goes to Oliver.  But by the end of the game he is moved off him.

I agree they won't try too hard to tag us, after all who can they use.  It will be like robbing Peter to pay Paul for them.  They have only a few fully fit mids and will need them to attack.  Petracca and Oliver will destroy an unfit player who tries to tag or go with them.

 

Talking of tagging.  In the Brisbane game whenever there was a secondary ball up in the middle Zorka guarded Oliver and Viney would stand right behind Zorko. Literally breathing down his neck.   Sometimes Viney did it as soon as the ump went to bounce the ball.  Zorko had no chance to impacting the game from the middle. 

I like all these subtle moves (structure/positioning) we ae making during games.  

[The Swimming Dee 1,838]

I think Viney is going to play a huge game tomorrow night...he knows it is his time to monster someone

[Deecisive 1,651]

just heard of a massive out for us Razor ray is out. so what umpires do we end up with this week and what is our history with them, or more importantly what is Geelongs history with them