CHANGES: QF vs Brisbane

[deanox 8,553]

4 minutes ago, TheWiz said:

Re-watched the Round 12 game and Brisbane’s round this weekend. Despite losing Hipwood they seem more dangerous. Cockatoo was intense and Rich shows how damaging he can be either linking or driving the ball easily into forward 50.

I would love to see ANB take a defensive forward roll on Rich to limit his impact, and leave Harmes around the ball like he currently is.

Our small forwards were prolific in R12, so need Kosi and Spargo to lift again. McDonald and Fritsch kicked a few but Weids had a doughnut. with BB in hopefully we can improve. 

Im confident our defence can keep up the intercepting pressure and hold Daniher accountable. Petty could be up to being on Daniher with May and Lever intercepting.

So for me the two risks are:

1. It will all be about about midfield efficiency and tackles. Brisbane play with speed, so force turnovers and capitalise.

2. They love playing the man and not the ball. Can’t get sucked into their game like we did in R12 and give them a 20 point head start. Need to protect Gawn and Oliver.

I wonder if we'll go purely "back our system head to head" or if we'll deploy a some targetted tactics like we did against the dogs in R11.

Most of the year we seem to have just played our system and let other teams do their thing.

[TheWiz 692]

8 hours ago, deanox said:

I wonder if we'll go purely "back our system head to head" or if we'll deploy a some targetted tactics like we did against the dogs in R11.

Most of the year we seem to have just played our system and let other teams do their thing.

Fair point deanox. I felt that’s how we played against Geelong, so maybe! The Libba tag was genius though. Nearly every other team has done it since!

[58er 5,607]

On 8/21/2021 at 10:56 PM, dl4e said:

I would leave the side alone but have a qiuet word in Mr McDonalds and Fritters ear.

Fritta did score 7 SEVEN goals a week ago !!!! Or have u forgotten? 

[58er 5,607]

On 8/21/2021 at 11:56 PM, deespicable me said:

Does anyone know how far away Hunt is? I would like to see him back in the line up. Also I think Hibbo should come back in.

As good as Bowey is and will be I think he might get exploited defensively, so maybe Bowey and Smith go out for Hibbo and hopefully Hunt.

Can't drop  a four game in a row good player on a ridiculous hunch !!! 
Hunt is not ready yet and we don't need to risk him as if we win he has 2 full weeks or at least one to get fit.
 

[Lucifers Hero 36,988]

AFL website shows Hunt out for 1-2 weeks.

However,

"The Demons think Hunt is an outside chance of returning for this weekend's qualifying final against the Lions, having originally been tipped to miss a month with an ankle injury. He is the club's only concern heading into September". - Riley Beveridge

If not this game then certainly the next, especially if we win this week and go thru to the Prelim. 

He must have worked awfully hard to get back in such a short time.  

[dazzledavey36 48,689]

Looks like another [censored] weather game..

 

[Winners at last 4,704]

I suspect no changes.

In terms of defensive matchups, I think it will start with Petty on Daniher/May on McStay/Smith on Cameron/Rivers on McCarthy/Lever on ## [don't know their other forwards].

 

Edited August 24, 2021 by bingers

[Jaded No More 57,744]

1 hour ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Looks like another [censored] weather game..

 

I wonder if that favors us. Brisbane would have played very few games in cold and rainy conditions. 

[Josh 1,420]

On 8/23/2021 at 5:30 PM, D Rev said:

Who is the second tall then?  Fritch is mid sized. 

Melksham stopped playing 4 quarter footy last year (at least) - he won't cut it in finals. Even injured, McDonald is better than Jake. He has kicked 30 goals this year and his fitness (when fit) has been the sort of thing you need to win finals.

McDonald is obviously suffering from the back injury related to flying up and down the east coast of Australia before the Suns game.  Probably not the time for an aerial tour of Australia, but who am I to judge?

I've almost gained faith in selectors this year.  If they pick McDonald, then he is right to play and part of our best 22.

Brown and Jackson... Although I like your argument, think I'll retract my comment 🤝

[Dwight Schrute 16,746]

21 minutes ago, Jaded said:

I wonder if that favors us. Brisbane would have played very few games in cold and rainy conditions. 

It 100% favors us, Brisbanes revival has been based on slick ball movement and high scoring, it suits us down to the ground if it rains. 

i think we will win either way though

[Pates 9,536]

4 minutes ago, Dwight Schrute said:

It 100% favors us, Brisbanes revival has been based on slick ball movement and high scoring, it suits us down to the ground if it rains. 

i think we will win either way though

I wouldn’t say our wet weather form has been great this year, mind you we did shift that against West Coast. I feel like a lot of our good ball movement comes off the back of intercept marking from Lever, May, Max, and Petty (to an extent). When the ball goes to ground in our defensive zones we look quite shaky. 

I don’t see any changes, apart from Hunt there isn’t anyone that I would say is a walk up start 22 that’s not coming available. Melksham and Hibberd who have been warriors for us would be in consideration for their experience but neither of their recent form demands they come in. Jones, the old favourite, would be in the thoughts for experience and sentimentality but he hasn’t played first team footy for a while. Jordon has been solidly in the best 23 for almost the entire year so he would be my pick for sub. 

[jnrmac 18,932]

21 hours ago, deanox said:

I wonder if we'll go purely "back our system head to head" or if we'll deploy a some targetted tactics like we did against the dogs in R11.

Most of the year we seem to have just played our system and let other teams do their thing.

Agree with last line but I think we have also selected for oppo teams as well. They brought in Melk to play defensive fwd on McGovern. They brought in Smith to play on Rohan

Rich was pressured by Kosi last time, Bowie could take Bailey. No Hipwood is a bonus.

Bris like to maintain possession in their defnce (like Geelong) and bring the ball out slowly (ie no turnovers). Then they are happy to go down the line and let their talls contest in the air. With their talls playing higher up the ground they get a lot of running goals out the back.

They are a high scoring side with lots of different goalkickers but haven't played the best teams in the last 8 rounds.

I think we'll go well. 

[Dwight Schrute 16,746]

26 minutes ago, Pates said:

I wouldn’t say our wet weather form has been great this year, mind you we did shift that against West Coast. I feel like a lot of our good ball movement comes off the back of intercept marking from Lever, May, Max, and Petty (to an extent). When the ball goes to ground in our defensive zones we look quite shaky. 

I don’t see any changes, apart from Hunt there isn’t anyone that I would say is a walk up start 22 that’s not coming available. Melksham and Hibberd who have been warriors for us would be in consideration for their experience but neither of their recent form demands they come in. Jones, the old favourite, would be in the thoughts for experience and sentimentality but he hasn’t played first team footy for a while. Jordon has been solidly in the best 23 for almost the entire year so he would be my pick for sub. 

I think some consideration should be given to a Jordan-Sparrow swap, i think Jordan is our best tackler, and when he's in the side it's something i really notice, i think we're a better side with him in there, 

definitely missing Hunts run, and happy to swap him and Smith. 

I'd be picking Melksham or Jones as Sub, i think having an experienced Sub is going to be really handy in finals because it's effectively another coach, another experienced head on the bench and someone ready to go right away. 

coming into a big final half way through if the game is really hot could be a tough adjustment for a young player imv 

[Guest]

I can’t see changes this week, but they could be in the post in the next few weeks.

Winning form is good form, so Tomald stays in for mine. That said, we at best have 4 weeks max left in the season. Coming back from injury (especially back ones as that is vital to your core) definitely gives a grace period. That also being said, we need as fit and firing a team should we go to the last week.

So what is the answer? To be honest, if we can get him firing in the next couple of weeks, I say we don’t go ‘like for like’. I say we go with the one permanent tall forward line with Max and Dogga drifting in and out. I believe this works better as BBB is a natural forward, rather than a back turned forward like TMac.

Let’s not jump the gun, but let’s keep contingency plans in place.

Edited August 25, 2021 by Colin B. Flaubert

[dazzledavey36 48,689]

I'd drop Bowey for Hibberd. 

[dazzledavey36 48,689]

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/five-veterans-in-mix-for-selection-as-dees-turn-to-agassi-for-inspiration-20210825-p58lp7.html?fbclid=IwAR3YJGfq3GTw_2qVf9eZrVFR6V3LaPiOFCn0DPODYff1IvfDUALapE9hoqU

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,384]

2 hours ago, Jaded said:

I wonder if that favors us. Brisbane would have played very few games in cold and rainy conditions. 

Statistically, we're favoured if there is also lightning. Only team this year with a 100% win rate for games including stoppages for lightning.

[DemonLad5 1,637]

I think defensively Smith gives us heaps of versatility. Genuinely barely remember Rohan having a touch on Saturday. If Hunt is available there is a real selection headache as I can't see Bowey getting dropped.  

[dazzledavey36 48,689]

1 hour ago, dazzledavey36 said:

I'd drop Bowey for Hibberd. 

I see a few are shocked at this. Hopefully this explains better.

I'm a HUGE fan of Bowey and think we've got a 200 gamer on our hands. 

My reasoning for this is that while Bowey hasn't put a foot wrong, I genuinely can't find a decent match up for him. I worry about playing a small 4th gamer down back in a game where the pressure significantly goes through the roof.  Right now we don't have a lockdown small defender and Hibberd plays that role fine.

Brisbane's small forwards are Lincoln McCarthy, Charlie Cameron and Zac Bailey (kicked 4 last time). I'd have Salem to go with McCarthy, Rivers with Bailey which leaves Hibberd to take on Cameron who did a good job last time. Unfortunately I just think any of those guys could easily expose Bowey on the big stage.

Joel Smith will stay in. I think the club love his flexibility and he could also easily take one of those smalls or a tall as well.

[Winners at last 4,704]

34 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Statistically, we're favoured if there is also lightning. Only team this year with a 100% win rate for games including stoppages for lightning.

Yes, but lightning doesn't strike twice ...

[Gawndy the Great 7,300]

2 hours ago, Dwight Schrute said:

It 100% favors us, Brisbanes revival has been based on slick ball movement and high scoring, it suits us down to the ground if it rains. 

i think we will win either way though

I wouldn't be so sure on that. Brisbane are elite in stoppage work, contested possessions and clearances. This is what wet weather footy requires. 

The only advantage we may have is how tall Brisbane go in the forward line. In dry weather i think they would try to exploit our shorter defenders and go super tall. That is risky in the wet weather.

I think we have to do a number on Rich and Neale - maybe Melksham plays a defensive role on Rich as the initiate a lot scoring chains from their back half through Rich. Harmes to Neale to negate his influence on the game. 

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,384]

10 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

I see a few are shocked at this. Hopefully this explains better.

I'm a HUGE fan of Bowey and think we've got a 200 gamer on our hands. 

My reasoning for this is that while Bowey hasn't put a foot wrong, I genuinely can't find a decent match up for him. I worry about playing a small 4th gamer down back in a game where the pressure significantly goes through the roof.  Right now we don't have a lockdown small defender and Hibberd plays that role fine.

Brisbane's small forwards are Lincoln McCarthy, Charlie Cameron and Zac Bailey (kicked 4 last time). I'd have Salem to go with McCarthy, Rivers with Bailey which leaves Hibberd to take on Cameron who did a good job last time. Unfortunately I just think any of those guys could easily expose Bowey on the big stage.

Joel Smith will stay in. I think the club love his flexibility and he could also easily take one of those smalls or a tall as well.

I'm not sure about any of the arguments which match our defenders against specific forwards. We play a seven man defence. Lever and May generally play nearly 100% game time, but the others regularly rotate each playing between approx 75%-90% on the ground. I suspect Brisbane's forwards also interchange regularly. As a consequence, the idea that one player will match up specifically on another is hard to execute. I fully expect to see all of the smaller defenders, whoever plays, mixing and matching with the smaller Brisbane forwards.   

For what it's worth, if Hunt is fit, I would choose him over Smith. I might also be tempted to play Hibberd ahead of Smith should Hunt be unavailable. But I would definitely be playing Bowey (plus Salem, Petty, Rivers, Lever and May.)

[Dwight Schrute 16,746]

3 minutes ago, CYB said:

I wouldn't be so sure on that. Brisbane are elite in stoppage work, contested possessions and clearances. This is what wet weather footy requires. 

The only advantage we may have is how tall Brisbane go in the forward line. In dry weather i think they would try to exploit our shorter defenders and go super tall. That is risky in the wet weather.

I think we have to do a number on Rich and Neale - maybe Melksham plays a defensive role on Rich as the initiate a lot scoring chains from their back half through Rich. Harmes to Neale to negate his influence on the game. 

I'd go slightly differently to be honest, I'd bring in Jordan or send Viney to body up Neale at stoppages,  Harmes to McLuggage to not allow him time and space, and i agree on a Melksham/Fritsch doing a defensive job on RIch, Starcavic will try and blanket Fritsch i'd imagine, but if he can get one on one Fritta might be able to get him in the air 

[NeveroddoreveN 1,034]

11 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

I see a few are shocked at this. Hopefully this explains better.

I'm a HUGE fan of Bowey and think we've got a 200 gamer on our hands. 

My reasoning for this is that while Bowey hasn't put a foot wrong, I genuinely can't find a decent match up for him. I worry about playing a small 4th gamer down back in a game where the pressure significantly goes through the roof.  Right now we don't have a lockdown small defender and Hibberd plays that role fine.

Brisbane's small forwards are Lincoln McCarthy, Charlie Cameron and Zac Bailey (kicked 4 last time). I'd have Salem to go with McCarthy, Rivers with Bailey which leaves Hibberd to take on Cameron who did a good job last time. Unfortunately I just think any of those guys could easily expose Bowey on the big stage.

Joel Smith will stay in. I think the club love his flexibility and he could also easily take one of those smalls or a tall as well.

 Bowey has forced his way through being a standout in match simulations when Hibberd was going right off the boil and fumbling everything.  There is no way known he will get dropped for "fumbles"....regardless if Bowey has the ideal matchup.  He is actually releasing Salem to play his more normal game as we now have another lovely user of the ball in the back half.

Love Hibberd but can't see him forcing his way past any of our current back 6.  Even Smith is ahead of him atm.

[dazzledavey36 48,689]

1 minute ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

I'm not sure about any of the arguments which match our defenders against specific forwards. We play a seven man defence. Lever and May generally play nearly 100% game time, but the others regularly rotate each playing between approx 75%-90% on the ground. I suspect Brisbane's forwards also interchange regularly. As a consequence, the idea that one player will match up specifically on another is hard to execute. I fully expect to see all of the smaller defenders, whoever plays, mixing and matching with the smaller Brisbane forwards.   

For what it's worth, if Hunt is fit, I would choose him over Smith. I might also be tempted to play Hibberd ahead of Smith should Hunt be unavailable. But I would definitely be playing Bowey (plus Salem, Petty, Rivers, Lever and May.)

No I understand all that.

Even if Bowey is rotating through those small forwards it's still going to make me nervous.  

All 3 of those small forwards are bloody good players. Probably the first time in his AFL where he comes up against some quality small forwards.