The common thread between 20 of the last 21 Premiers

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,101]

Is the fact that since 1990 every premier aside from West Coast in 1994 has gone at least 1 game in a finals series where they’ve avoided kicking  more behinds than goals.

All of these premiers have played at least 3 games.

Now how amazing a stat is that- at least one game in a finals series since 1990, a premier has  gone at least 50/50 conversion in at least one of their 3 finals,  aside from West Coast in 1994.

Moral of the story is that if we kick more behinds than goals in ALL (YES ALL) of our upcoming finals games, we’re only a 5% chance of winning the flag.

Foot note- West Coast kicked 47.70 in the 1994 series which is completely unsustainable and unrealistic in modern day footy.

Edited August 20, 2021 by Bring-Back-Powell

[Binmans PA 25,894]

Many of us have been saying all year that our poor goal kicking will cost us a final. We must kick straighter in the next 5 weeks. Do that and we'll be very hard to beat.

Edited August 20, 2021 by A F

[Satan 2,722]

13 minutes ago, A F said:

Many of us have been saying all year that our poor goal kicking will cost us a final. We must kick straighter in the next 5 weeks. Do that and we'll be very hard to beat.

Last quarter 87 prelim cost us ,  (carlton having the week off and 33c  killed off hawks the next week)  ( mind you its a sliding door moment) . I always have bas vibes when we hit the goal post early . Usually  its not the last tine

[Radar Detector 1,339]

We kicked 16.8 last week so hopefully we have started to rectify that issue.

[picket fence 15,056]

6 hours ago, Satan said:

Last quarter 87 prelim cost us ,  (carlton having the week off and 33c  killed off hawks the next week)  ( mind you its a sliding door moment) . I always have bas vibes when we hit the goal post early . Usually  its not the last tine

Yep we missed some sitters but the absolute worst was Simon Eisholds, shocking miss from 1 metre out! 🤯

[Salems Lot 2,360]

3 hours ago, picket fence said:

Yep we missed some sitters but the absolute worst was Simon Eisholds, shocking miss from 1 metre out! 🤯

Sadly remember it all too well....I learnt to hate Hawthorn supporters that day

[spirit of norm smith 12,839]

Huge focus.
 

 Goalkicking is the area of the game that has actually gone backwards (imo) despite all the specialist coaches, professional full time footballers and biomedical advancements.  

Fritsch showed last week how dangerous we can be. Dees seemingly have higher inside 50s than our opposition but much lower conversion of goals/inside50s  (stats gurus may be able to prove this right or wrong) 

Dees must nail the shots from 25-35 metres out in front.  MUST. 

[BDA 19,978]

In short, the straighter we kick the better chance we have of winning. Seems logical

[Little Goffy 12,507]

Oddly enough, in the drawn grand final and replay if you total the scores from both games, both Collingwood (25.26) and St Kilda (17.18) had more behinds than goals.

That Collingwood would have won the drawn grand final easily if they had managed even a 50/50 rate supports the OPs observation.

Hmm... now I'm looking at grand finals specifically and noticing that a lot of the losing teams had very poor accuracy on the day. In fact, it looks like about 90% of grand final losers had more behind that goals, and that includes some real stinkers.

GRAND FINAL SCORING SINCE 1990

WINNERS: 511.421 (55%)

LOSERS: 313.381  (45%)

[Satan 2,722]

2 hours ago, Salems Lot said:

Sadly remember it all too well....I learnt to hate Hawthorn supporters that day

Was at those goals so those misses were costly , had no idea about the stynes 15 m till later 

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,101]

58 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

Oddly enough, in the drawn grand final and replay if you total the scores from both games, both Collingwood (25.26) and St Kilda (17.18) had more behinds than goals.

That Collingwood would have won the drawn grand final easily if they had managed even a 50/50 rate supports the OPs observation.

Hmm... now I'm looking at grand finals specifically and noticing that a lot of the losing teams had very poor accuracy on the day. In fact, it looks like about 90% of grand final losers had more behind that goals, and that includes some real stinkers.

GRAND FINAL SCORING SINCE 1990

WINNERS: 511.421 (55%)

LOSERS: 313.381  (45%)

Absolutely agree with your grand final points.

Given how the game has evolved into a lower scoring code, if you’re inaccurate on grand final day, you’ll most likely be crying into your runner’s up beer.

From 2007 - 2020 only one premier has kicked more behind than goals, and they were a potential Dom Sheed behind away from losing.

 

[Diamond_Jim 11,678]

6 hours ago, picket fence said:

Yep we missed some sitters but the absolute worst was Simon Eisholds, shocking miss from 1 metre out! 🤯

In his defence he may have been 3-4 metres out.

[layzie 28,511]

The thing that scares me is that inaccuracy in grand finals gets remembered forever. North in 98, Geelong in 08 etc. It sticks with you.

[Webber 9,969]

6 hours ago, picket fence said:

Yep we missed some sitters but the absolute worst was Simon Eisholds, shocking miss from 1 metre out! 🤯

I was sitting behind those goals…….grim stuff. 

[Ham 741]

3 hours ago, BDA said:

In short, the straighter we kick the better chance we have of winning. Seems logical

Right? Who would've thought...

[Cheap Seats 3,300]

14 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Is the fact that since 1990 every premier aside from West Coast in 1994 has gone at least 1 game in a finals series where they’ve avoided kicking  more behinds than goals.

All of these premiers have played at least 3 games.

Now how amazing a stat is that- at least one game in a finals series since 1990, a premier has  gone at least 50/50 conversion in at least one of their 3 finals,  aside from West Coast in 1994.

Moral of the story is that if we kick more behinds than goals in ALL (YES ALL) of our upcoming finals games, we’re only a 5% chance of winning the flag.

Foot note- West Coast kicked 47.70 in the 1994 series which is completely unsustainable and unrealistic in modern day footy.

Who'd have thought that if you kick goals you're likely to win games.

What a novel concept. You should take it to the AFL

Edited August 21, 2021 by COVID Dan

[Redleg 37,474]

9 hours ago, picket fence said:

Yep we missed some sitters but the absolute worst was Simon Eisholds, shocking miss from 1 metre out! 🤯

If you looked at his face on the screen, you could see he was going to miss. He looked as though he was facing a firing squad.

So many incidents in that game.

Robbie Flower doing his shoulder.

Robbie missing a soda for him. 

The umpire not hearing the siren and awarding a 15 metre penalty, well after it started sounding to Buckenara, who said he wouldn't have kicked it from the original spot. Buckenara didn't even see Stynes run across the mark, as he later stated.

The kickout by the Hawks, in the last play to the wing, where Newport was grabbed around the neck, without the ball and thrown to the ground, right in front of the umpire, who ignored it. Pay that free and game over.

Several misses by Dees players Yeats, Eishold, Campbell and Healy from sitter positions in the last quarter.

Etc, etc, etc. 

[DubDee 20,341]

Who can forget the Cats losing the 2008 GF purely by bad kicking. 
probably the best team I’ve seen aside from 2002 Lions. 

[Demonstone 19,050]

35 minutes ago, Redleg said:

If you looked at his face on the screen, you could see he was going to miss.

Eishold revealed years later that the occasion got the better of him and he became so nervous and uptight that his legs turned to jelly.

[Guest]

7 hours ago, Salems Lot said:

Sadly remember it all too well....I learnt to hate Hawthorn supporters that day

They are the most entitled and fair weather  arzeholes you’d be cursed to meet in a day’s hunting.

I remember some [censored] was shown on the footage of the time (shown on ‘Every Heart Beats True: The Jim Stynes Story’) with a banner he’d created on a dot matrix printer made of fanfold continuous paper.

It simply read: Suffer Demons!

One of the few times an opposition supporter has singled me out to mock me was after they rolled us by 115 in 2015. I bit back with a few well placed comments about Jeff Kennett, but in both cases I must ask:

Really?

It’s not like we were a mouthy, hubristic bunch of loudmouths like Essendon in 2000 or Richmond recently. We were a support group just wanting a few slivers of light in years of darkness.

[picket fence 15,056]

17 minutes ago, Demonstone said:

Eishold revealed years later that the occasion got the better of him and he became so nervous and uptight that his legs turned to jelly.

Typical Ormond Amateur we ALWAYS had their measure

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,101]

Excellent win on Saturday night with next nothing to concern ourselves with.

However, it was another night of inaccuracy and history proves that 20 of the last 21 premiers go at least one final where they go 50/50 at worst eg  -14 goals 14 behinds.

We easily got away with it on Saturday night as we outscored them comprehensively and had complete control, but it's a stat we need to be slightly aware of. 

 

 

 

 

 

[old55 21,216]

On 8/21/2021 at 5:15 PM, DubDee said:

Who can forget the Cats losing the 2008 GF purely by bad kicking. 
probably the best team I’ve seen aside from 2002 Lions. 

11 goals 23 behinds - 12 behinds kicked, 11 rushed by the Hawthorn defence to regain possession of the ball.  It was a tactic by Clarkson.

[Demon17 4,531]

On 8/21/2021 at 1:08 AM, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Is the fact that since 1990 every premier aside from West Coast in 1994 has gone at least 1 game in a finals series where they’ve avoided kicking  more behinds than goals.

All of these premiers have played at least 3 games.

Now how amazing a stat is that- at least one game in a finals series since 1990, a premier has  gone at least 50/50 conversion in at least one of their 3 finals,  aside from West Coast in 1994.

Moral of the story is that if we kick more behinds than goals in ALL (YES ALL) of our upcoming finals games, we’re only a 5% chance of winning the flag.

Foot note- West Coast kicked 47.70 in the 1994 series which is completely unsustainable and unrealistic in modern day footy.

I like it.  And the overall season stat I like is that each week, 8 of the 9 winning teams had better accuracy, (kicking more goals than points) than the loser. Kick more gaols than points and 8 out of 9 chances sees a win.

The finals this weekend panned out that way, unless it was a demolition job like Port and Dees delivered . Swans kick 2.7 in the last 1/4. Losing the unlosable.

MY major worry that will kill our chances, unless we flat out swamp the oppositon with scoring chances like we did in the 2nd 1/4. 

[Demon17 4,531]

On 8/21/2021 at 3:37 PM, Ham said:

Right? Who would've thought...

I agree, but someone pass this only to Bailey Fritsch.

although to give him credit he's improved somewhat from early in the season.