Finals 2021

[In Harmes Way 7,477]

6 minutes ago, picket fence said:

We will play vs Moggies at MCG next week

There was a graphic on Fox at half time in the game that showed next week's game at the MCG, but I think this was a typo.

On First Crack just now it showed the game in Geelong. 

[Demonland 64,384]

 

[Jaded No More 57,609]

12 minutes ago, Demonland said:

 

Worth noting that the only teams Port have beaten in those rounds not outside the top 8 are the two Sydney teams. Sydney was at AO. 
They’ve had a soft draw. 

[Demonland 64,384]

 

[Binmans PA 25,889]

This could have gone in a few of the threads, but I notice David King has finally relented and pegged us as his flag favourite on FIRST CRACK, jumping off the Dogs.

He talked about us in the last 6 weeks being #1 in a list of categories vis a vis defending without the ball and a mile better than any other team (ridiculously so), so defending ball movement, forward half intercepts etc.

He basically said, if it continues, you can't not back us.

I think the real x factor that I've completely underestimated this season going into finals is Luke Jackson. He's not as damaging or as involved for as long as Jake Stringer (who I'd say is the best player in the comp over the last 3 or 4 weeks), but given where the rest of our game sits, I thought for the first time today, this kid could actually tear the 2021 finals series up.

The fact he's started marking the ball and adding goals to his game from the contest, to add to his ability to get it on the outside, is a massive, massive development for our forward half. I worry slightly that McDonald coming back will disrupt this, but we'll have to wait and see. It worked okay against the Suns.

The other tantalising aspect to LJ's game was again on display today from stoppage. He's a freak in that not only can he rove his own tapwork ala NikNat, he's an elite user by foot at 200cm. Wowee.

So can we win it? We just need a bit more luck and I think barring a horror out of the box performance, it's ours to lose now.

We're still vulnerable when Oliver or Petracca are slightly off, but fortunately they're rarely off and then we have Viney as a finals wild card as well.

 

[adonski 9,102]

10 minutes ago, A F said:

This could have gone in a few of the threads, but I notice David King has finally relented and pegged us as his flag favourite on FIRST CRACK, jumping off the Dogs.

He talked about us in the last 6 weeks being #1 in a list of categories vis a vis defending without the ball and a mile better than any other team (ridiculously so), so defending ball movement, forward half intercepts etc.

He basically said, if it continues, you can't not back us.

I think the real x factor that I've completely underestimated this season going into finals is Luke Jackson. He's not as damaging or as involved for as long as Jake Stringer (who I'd say is the best player in the comp over the last 3 or 4 weeks), but given where the rest of our game sits, I thought for the first time today, this kid could actually tear the 2021 finals series up.

The fact he's started marking the ball and adding goals to his game from the contest, to add to his ability to get it on the outside, is a massive, massive development for our forward half. I worry slightly that McDonald coming back will disrupt this, but we'll have to wait and see. It worked okay against the Suns.

The other tantalising aspect to LJ's game was again on display today from stoppage. He's a freak in that not only can he rove his own tapwork ala NikNat, he's an elite user by foot at 200cm. Wowee.

So can we win it? We just need a bit more luck and I think barring a horror out of the box performance, it's ours to lose now.

We're still vulnerable when Oliver or Petracca are slightly off, but fortunately they're rarely off and then we have Viney as a finals wild card as well.

 

On the McDonald bit, think it'll only help. Teams will go to town double teaming Brown if McDonald isn't playing. I know Fritsch kicked 7 today, but think it's a big help for him too.

[Jaded No More 57,609]

12 minutes ago, A F said:

 

We're still vulnerable when Oliver or Petracca are slightly off, but fortunately they're rarely off and then we have Viney as a finals wild card as well.

 

I think Oliver was born to play finals. I just feel that he will rise to the occasion. He was a baby in 2018. He is not anymore. 
I am probably most excited for May. Baring any disasters next week, he gets to finally play finals. He must be salivating. Watch out forwards. 

[brendan 3,380]

What’s happened to mark robinson seems to have disappeared, not on 360 and done nothing in herald sun for weeks 

[BDA 19,978]

9 minutes ago, brendan said:

What’s happened to mark robinson seems to have disappeared, not on 360 and done nothing in herald sun for weeks 

He has a health issue he's dealing with

[brendan 3,380]

8 minutes ago, BDA said:

He has a health issue he's dealing with

No good I don’t mind robbo on 360 

[Red But Mostly Blue 3,611]

9 hours ago, Demonland said:

 

Wouldn't it be just the most Melbourne thing ever to steam into the finals, and finally win a premiership - only for the game to be played interstate, and us (in Vic at least) not being able to see it in person because of lockdown? Is this the curse changing form? Success but we can't feel it? (the inhale, exhale of a packed MCG is unrivalled).

(Obviously I'll take a premiership no matter what haha).

[Demonland 64,384]

 

[titan_uranus 22,218]

10 hours ago, A F said:

This could have gone in a few of the threads, but I notice David King has finally relented and pegged us as his flag favourite on FIRST CRACK, jumping off the Dogs.

He talked about us in the last 6 weeks being #1 in a list of categories vis a vis defending without the ball and a mile better than any other team (ridiculously so), so defending ball movement, forward half intercepts etc.

He basically said, if it continues, you can't not back us.

I think the real x factor that I've completely underestimated this season going into finals is Luke Jackson. He's not as damaging or as involved for as long as Jake Stringer (who I'd say is the best player in the comp over the last 3 or 4 weeks), but given where the rest of our game sits, I thought for the first time today, this kid could actually tear the 2021 finals series up.

The fact he's started marking the ball and adding goals to his game from the contest, to add to his ability to get it on the outside, is a massive, massive development for our forward half. I worry slightly that McDonald coming back will disrupt this, but we'll have to wait and see. It worked okay against the Suns.

The other tantalising aspect to LJ's game was again on display today from stoppage. He's a freak in that not only can he rove his own tapwork ala NikNat, he's an elite user by foot at 200cm. Wowee.

So can we win it? We just need a bit more luck and I think barring a horror out of the box performance, it's ours to lose now.

We're still vulnerable when Oliver or Petracca are slightly off, but fortunately they're rarely off and then we have Viney as a finals wild card as well.

 

Whilst I agree with the sentiment and how the stats show we're as well-placed to win it this year as anyone, it's not a simple as the bolded line.

We don't need a "horror out of the box performance" to miss. There are four other very good sides in it: Geelong, Port, Brisbane and the Bulldogs (albeit the Dogs appear to be trending the wrong way at the wrong time). We know we can beat them but it won't take a "horror" match for us to lose, particularly if we lose to Geelong this week and end up playing Port in Adelaide in the first final (or, almost worse, we avoid them in the first final but lose to, say, Geelong, and then end up in Adelaide in the prelim...).

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,099]

45 minutes ago, Red But Mostly Blue said:

Wouldn't it be just the most Melbourne thing ever to steam into the finals, and finally win a premiership - only for the game to be played interstate, and us (in Vic at least) not being able to see it in person because of lockdown? Is this the curse changing form? Success but we can't feel it? (the inhale, exhale of a packed MCG is unrivalled).

(Obviously I'll take a premiership no matter what haha).

We haven't won the thing yet and I have to keep reminding myself of this.

But, yeah it's a cruel twist to send the GF to a state where VICs will not be able to attend under any circumstances (unless you can quarantine in TAS or NT and then risk wasting your time and effort if we lost a prelim) . Mind you if cases persist here, we won't be able to travel to any state regardless.

QLD and SA would typically require 14 days without community transmission and WA a full 28.

[Diamond_Jim 11,673]

24 minutes ago, Demonland said:

 

Yep....

GF in Perth.The real question is the two prelims and perhaps the previous finals.

I'm seeing a pre grand final bye that allows quarantining and testing for the visiting teams in Perth.

[roy11 2,911]

Can I roll my GF guarantee over until next year? aha

[old dee 22,805]

12 hours ago, Jaded said:

Worth noting that the only teams Port have beaten in those rounds not outside the top 8 are the two Sydney teams. Sydney was at AO. 
They’ve had a soft draw. 

And we still have not beaten anyone above us!!!

[david_neitz_is_my_dad 3,925]

Optus oval suits us

[old dee 22,805]

10 minutes ago, roy11 said:

Can I roll my GF guarantee over until next year? aha

We both hope you are joking but the odds for a GF at the G with crowds are as long as the highway to Perth. 

[Deespicable 2,538]

Why is Adelaide not being seriously considered to host all finals?

I get that the MCG is not going to happen with crowds and I get that the spectacle is just so much better with crowds.

But I am sorry I don't quite get why Adelaide is not ahead of Perth in likelihood of staging the finals.

Adelaide, like Perth, has practically no cases

Adelaide, like Perth, has proud footy traditions which means that all games will be close to capacity even without the local sides playing, although Port are guaranteed to be playing in at least two of the nine finals.

Adelaide, like Perth, has a relatively new stadium that has won rave reviews. Crowd capacity is 53,500 as opposed to Perth's 60,156 - a slight difference but not massive enough to be a critical factor.

Then there's the advantages:

Adelaide is less distance for other teams to travel (ie Brisbane).

Adelaide is more accessible for us Victorians if we make the granny.

and while government policy changes, the one state that has been saying 'No' to any foreigners throughout the Covid era is WA.

I also get that holding the finals in Adelaide would give Port considerable clout, but as with the Lions last year, even though the umps will favour them, if you aren't up to it, you still aren't up to it.

So why Perth?

[rpfc 27,386]

8 minutes ago, old dee said:

And we still have not beaten anyone above us!!!

Only team above us is the Heaven XVIII. 

Bunch of righteous flogs, love to clip their wings… 

And did you know their coach is responsible for the pandemic? 

Love to punch him in the face…

[old dee 22,805]

9 minutes ago, Deespicable said:

Why is Adelaide not being seriously considered to host all finals?

I get that the MCG is not going to happen with crowds and I get that the spectacle is just so much better with crowds.

But I am sorry I don't quite get why Adelaide is not ahead of Perth in likelihood of staging the finals.

Adelaide, like Perth, has practically no cases

Adelaide, like Perth, has proud footy traditions which means that all games will be close to capacity even without the local sides playing, although Port are guaranteed to be playing in at least two of the nine finals.

Adelaide, like Perth, has a relatively new stadium that has won rave reviews. Crowd capacity is 53,500 as opposed to Perth's 60,156 - a slight difference but not massive enough to be a critical factor.

Then there's the advantages:

Adelaide is less distance for other teams to travel (ie Brisbane).

Adelaide is more accessible for us Victorians if we make the granny.

and while government policy changes, the one state that has been saying 'No' to any foreigners throughout the Covid era is WA.

I also get that holding the finals in Adelaide would give Port considerable clout, but as with the Lions last year, even though the umps will favour them, if you aren't up to it, you still aren't up to it.

So why Perth?

Deespicable what makes you think the GP from Victoria will be allowed into either state by the end of September? Both states require no positive cases for 2 weeks. That is simply not going to happen with Delta. Your only option is watching on TV  wether it be interstate with local crowds or G with no one. 

Edited August 16, 2021 by old dee

[Demonland 64,384]

 

[Willmoy1947 3,759]

9 minutes ago, Demonland said:

 

The further away from Home we go the harder we go...

[roy11 2,911]

33 minutes ago, old dee said:

We both hope you are joking but the odds for a GF at the G with crowds are as long as the highway to Perth. 

I meant I have the GF Guarantee, but if its in WA and we make it, highly doubt I'll be able to go for various reasons.