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413 shots for 205 goals and 208 pionts


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1 hour ago, Clint Bizkit said:

That Hunt moment was a bit of a turning point.

Exactly the moment we needed to put the foot down but blew it.

Pretty sure a teammate got angry at him, too, because I recall after his miss they cut to him and he was mouthing back and gesturing as if to say "what was I supposed to do?"

The answer, IIRC, was to slow down and hit one of the players laterally. Unfortunately he took off and wanted to keep moving, and ended up making a bad decision to neither full bore go for goal nor to pass it to Brown.

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4.6 last night from set shots and one of them came from the Brayshaw 50 metre penalty in the goal square.

BBB who couldn’t miss at North kicked 0.2 from set shots.

The set shot conversion needs to be over 50% as theoretically players should be more composed than kicking on the run.

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MFC Goal Accuracy % Rankings - Season 2021 up to and including Round 18

Player SG GAC % 2021 Rank
B Fritsch 56 62.5 1
T Sparrow 7 57.1 2
L Jackson 16 56.3 3
T McDonald 51 54.9 4
M Brown 4 50.0 5
E Langdon 22 50.0 5
J Harmes 11 45.5 7
K Pickett 59 44.1 8
A Neil-Bullen 25 44.0 9
B Brown 14 42.9 10
J Jordan 15 40.0 11
J Hunt 5 40.0 11
C Petracca 49 38.8 13
J Melksham 13 38.5 14
C Spargo 28 35.7 15
T Rivers 3 33.3 16
M Gawn 24 33.3 16
J Viney 6 33.3 16
C Salem 6 33.3 16
S Weideman 10 30.0 20
N Jones 7 28.6 21
C Oliver 22 27.3 22
A Brayshaw 13 15.4 23

SG = Shots at Goal   GAC = Goal Accuracy %

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25 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

4.6 last night from set shots and one of them came from the Brayshaw 50 metre penalty in the goal square.

BBB who couldn’t miss at North kicked 0.2 from set shots.

The set shot conversion needs to be over 50% as theoretically players should be more composed than kicking on the run.

Some random information/data which I think is relevant to this conversation. It's taken from A Matter of Stats (but goes to 2017 - which is a long time ago in football terms).

  • Our style - kicking to pockets, repeat entries - to my mind links into the 3rd point of interest in the Relationship Between Scoring and Winning Rates. 

 

 

502614750_ScreenShot2021-07-18at8_17_36pm.thumb.png.e0d889f363416552d4c1de9359f22675.png

 

 

Screen Shot 2021-07-18 at 8.23.24 pm.png

Screen Shot 2021-07-18 at 8.23.03 pm.png

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7 hours ago, picket fence said:

Hnmm anyone else unhappy with that conversion rate? Here above are the stats. Now can I reference this by saying that goal kicking IS a specialised art, and one that requires not only plenty of practice but a firm set shot routine. Shots on the run are more problematic, but set shots from anywhere in a 45 degree ark from 45 or so out should be absolute "Gimmes". Missing from 35 out almost directly in front is just dreadful goalkicking.  Putting on my Sports Science and Phys Ed teachers hat, quality practice and set shot routines start from Junior footy, but can still be coached at Senior footy providing the technique is kept relatively simple and is Biomechanically correct. I have seen plenty of players practicing at the end of training but that is not what I would call, specific, discrete, open or cloze skill model! Years ago I worked with some A grade Ammos clubs specifically on goal kicking drills and skills to improve set shot routines. I wont go into the method but it worked well enough for me and others as well. I suspect that AFL and other clubs probably dont have the resources to afford a specific goal kicking coach but should as given that it is a professional sport with professional level salaries, players missing easy goals just should be an aberration more than the norm.

Fence - are you volunteering, as a highly qualified “passionate supporter”? 

6 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Brayshaw’s last qtr miss was the costly one and a reflection of our woes this year.

A player that was supposed to be renowned as an elite set shot for goal, can’t nail a shot from 40 mtrs out on a slight angle. It’s been happening all year from some of our players including Kozzie, Petracca and Gawn. T Macs also been poor at times at the regulation set shot.

Was also annoyed at Brayshaw’s arrogant celebration after he kicked a goal from 1 mtr out from a 50 M penalty, to put us 11 points up, as if the job had already been done.

I can see our conversion holding us back from a genuine tilt this year, unless we can get it right in September.

We need to get it right in July - can’t wait until September. 

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58 minutes ago, monoccular said:

Fence - are you volunteering, as a highly qualified “passionate supporter”? 

We need to get it right in July - can’t wait until September. 

YEP but club wont even  think it viable

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8 hours ago, Sir Why You Little said:

Ever since Goodwin arrived we have had trouble converting i50’s to scores

We need to sort it out before September, we will be shown up under Finals pressure 

Hard to make a comparison really. Obviously not much point going back to Neeld era so it is just the Roos period of any recent relevance. Still, let's look: (per game)

Roos:

2014:  40.5 i50s, for 8.6 goals and 9.0 behinds    

2015:  44.5 i50s, for 10.2 goals and 10.2 behinds

2016:  53.8 i50s, for 13.0 goals and 10.3 behinds

Goodwin:

2017: 54.8 i50s, for 13.7 goals, 10.1 behinds

2018: 59.8 i50s, for 14.8 goals, 12.8 behinds

2019: 54.0 i50s, for 10.1 goals, 10.1 behinds

*2020:  42.5 i50s, for 9.1 goals, 7.8 behinds

2021: 54.0 i50s, for 12.1 goals, 12.2 behinds

Verdict:

It's patchy. 2018 we were simply the best attacking side in the game, 2017 not far off the pace either. Our attack imploded in 2019 and we were kind of mid-range in 2020.

Right now we're doing 'well' for total scoring, but as much as a goal a game behind the top teams for actual goals. So in that sense it is our accuracy that is killing us, not our conversion of inside 50s to goals. But I would speculate we'd look very different if the stat was 'inside 35s' and therein lies the rub.

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We seem to enter our forward 50 into the pockets more often than not.

I think we do this to effectively set up down the field to assist our defence, this will normally lead to tougher set shots on angles. I'd be really interested in heat maps between us on the other top 4 teams were our set shots have been taken from. 

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20 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

MFC Goal Accuracy % Rankings - Season 2021 up to and including Round 18

Player SG GAC % 2021 Rank
B Fritsch 56 62.5 1
T Sparrow 7 57.1 2
L Jackson 16 56.3 3
T McDonald 51 54.9 4
M Brown 4 50.0 5
E Langdon 22 50.0 5
J Harmes 11 45.5 7
K Pickett 59 44.1 8
A Neil-Bullen 25 44.0 9
B Brown 14 42.9 10
J Jordan 15 40.0 11
J Hunt 5 40.0 11
C Petracca 49 38.8 13
J Melksham 13 38.5 14
C Spargo 28 35.7 15
T Rivers 3 33.3 16
M Gawn 24 33.3 16
J Viney 6 33.3 16
C Salem 6 33.3 16
S Weideman 10 30.0 20
N Jones 7 28.6 21
C Oliver 22 27.3 22
A Brayshaw 13 15.4 23

SG = Shots at Goal   GAC = Goal Accuracy %

Interesting data. My main concern is Pickett. Given he has had the most shots at goal (a surprise to me), if we could get him at the T-Mac level of accuracy he would have generated an extra 6 goals; at the Fritsch level, an extra 11 goals.

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20 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

MFC Goal Accuracy % Rankings - Season 2021 up to and including Round 18

Player SG GAC % 2021 Rank
B Fritsch 56 62.5 1
T Sparrow 7 57.1 2
L Jackson 16 56.3 3
T McDonald 51 54.9 4
M Brown 4 50.0 5
E Langdon 22 50.0 5
J Harmes 11 45.5 7
K Pickett 59 44.1 8
A Neil-Bullen 25 44.0 9
B Brown 14 42.9 10
J Jordan 15 40.0 11
J Hunt 5 40.0 11
C Petracca 49 38.8 13
J Melksham 13 38.5 14
C Spargo 28 35.7 15
T Rivers 3 33.3 16
M Gawn 24 33.3 16
J Viney 6 33.3 16
C Salem 6 33.3 16
S Weideman 10 30.0 20
N Jones 7 28.6 21
C Oliver 22 27.3 22
A Brayshaw 13 15.4 23

SG = Shots at Goal   GAC = Goal Accuracy %

Thanks fir this. I was surprised to see Gus at 15.4%. that is actually pretty disgraceful fr a player of his ability , especially  given one goal he kicked was from 1 mtr out! So,  if my maths is accurate, it means he’s only kicked 1 other goal from his other 12 set shots? that’s crazy bad. 

with Oliver  i pretty much just presume he will kick a point now, but even HE has a better % than Gus. 

My concern is when finals pressure hits we may get even worse. straight kicking makes a huge difference in big games. 

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32 minutes ago, Wells 11 said:

Thanks fir this. I was surprised to see Gus at 15.4%. that is actually pretty disgraceful fr a player of his ability , especially  given one goal he kicked was from 1 mtr out! So,  if my maths is accurate, it means he’s only kicked 1 other goal from his other 12 set shots? that’s crazy bad. 

with Oliver  i pretty much just presume he will kick a point now, but even HE has a better % than Gus. 

My concern is when finals pressure hits we may get even worse. straight kicking makes a huge difference in big games. 

I'm not expecting miracles but the impression i get from some is that they're just not fussed whether they hit or miss.  Especially Clarry.  I've always said if he can bring reasonable goal kicking returns to his arsenol he'll go down as one of the great MFC players.

Have a feeling this might be for all shots taken not just set shots W11.

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28 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Interesting data. My main concern is Pickett. Given he has had the most shots at goal (a surprise to me), if we could get him at the T-Mac level of accuracy he would have generated an extra 6 goals; at the Fritsch level, an extra 11 goals.

It's funny we all see things diff LDC.

I was actually quite pleasantly surprised at Kozzie's % given he's only into his second year.

It's some of the other more senior fellows that are stinking it up that, for me, are more of a concern.  Melk, Viney, Clarry, Gawny and Gus the main offenders.  Not that we rely on Gus just that his % is bottom of the barrel stuff... at 33% or so i might get it.  Gawn's % also pretty much fits the bill but would have hoped he might have improved a little here and at least be hitting at around 40% or thereabouts.

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This is the ANB interview on the club website......forget the interview.....in the background is Greg Stafford working with Kossie on his goal kicking, much more interesting:

https://www.melbournefc.com.au/video/983044/off-the-track-alex-neal-bullen?videoId=983044&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1626676252001

 

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16 minutes ago, george_on_the_outer said:

This is the ANB interview on the club website......forget the interview.....in the background is Greg Stafford working with Kossie on his goal kicking, much more interesting:

https://www.melbournefc.com.au/video/983044/off-the-track-alex-neal-bullen?videoId=983044&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1626676252001

 

I noticed this as well George. This was on Monday and 2 things stood out for me. The first was there was less bounce in Kozi's step and trying to get him to run in a straight line. The bouncy run appears to affect his ball drop and Stafford can be seen showing how the ball drop should guide the ball to his foot. It also looked like they are working on a set shot routine, with a set number of steps, more of a run than a bounce and a straight ball drop.

Heres hoping it works on the weekend 

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On 7/19/2021 at 4:38 PM, Rusty Nails said:

I'm not expecting miracles but the impression i get from some is that they're just not fussed whether they hit or miss.  Especially Clarry.  I've always said if he can bring reasonable goal kicking returns to his arsenol he'll go down as one of the great MFC players.

Have a feeling this might be for all shots taken not just set shots W11.

I could not believe Clarry’s attitude when Spargo “took” his mark, he genuinely looked like a toddler who’d had his favourite toy taken away. And yet if I think if anyone had a choice between the two they’d go with Spargo every day of the week. Clarry’s set shots are disgraceful for a player of his ability. 

Brayshaw in the past has actually been really steady as a set shot player so I wonder what’s changed. Is it the higher aerobic expectations from playing wing taking its toll? It’s not an excuse by the way, we need players to be able to nail clutch goals and I honestly don’t know if we have any. I mean BB misses from a set shot he nailed at north every bloody day of the week!

We got away with our poor conversation rate early in the season, we’ve now seen it cost us wins against Adelaide, GWS, and the Hawks. 

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59 minutes ago, Pates said:

I could not believe Clarry’s attitude when Spargo “took” his mark, he genuinely looked like a toddler who’d had his favourite toy taken away. And yet if I think if anyone had a choice between the two they’d go with Spargo every day of the week. Clarry’s set shots are disgraceful for a player of his ability. 

Brayshaw in the past has actually been really steady as a set shot player so I wonder what’s changed. Is it the higher aerobic expectations from playing wing taking its toll? It’s not an excuse by the way, we need players to be able to nail clutch goals and I honestly don’t know if we have any. I mean BB misses from a set shot he nailed at north every bloody day of the week!

We got away with our poor conversation rate early in the season, we’ve now seen it cost us wins against Adelaide, GWS, and the Hawks. 

And the worst part is Gus was devastated after the game and looking perplexed at what went wrong.  Well mate all you need to do is look at the set shot kicking, especially your own, and that will explain much of it.

Yes Pate I've already commented on the Clarry incident.  And this is another worry.  Ever since Macca failed to handball to a screaming free Tracc just outside the square and instead swung around on his right to kick it himself while being tackled (about 4/5 matches ago) the selfless sharing stuff we saw earlier in the season when we were beating all and sundry has slowly ebbed away to virtually zero.

Combine the two and it's resulted in a chipping away at unity, cohesion, then belief and ultimately form.

If Goody, the FD, Gawny and other leaders aren't aware of this, and on to it by now, we are in deep doggy doo. 

I'm also not that impressed with the re-entry of Viney so far.  For whatever reason, his body language since the return appears to me as an observer, rightly or wrongly, to be bloody awful.

Also, we need to decide do we want a plodding / straight ahead mid field to continue with the likes of Viney and AVB both in or do we bring in Melk for AVB to attempt to connect more out of the middle with forwards like Macca, BB and Fritta.

And do ANB and Viney hold their spots once (IF) Harmes gets back?  Could we bring Harmes in for Viney/ANB if one doesn't hit form (ANB a fair way off lately) and play Harmes in a wing / mid field role with Gus and bring Gus into the middle (say 50%ish) for some decent outside use and connection with the extractors in Tracc & Clarry?  Probably very unlikely at this late stage but just a thought.

The other very slim chance but worth a look is bringing in Baker for Gus for a few weeks and just see what that gives us on the non-Lingers wing.  I understand Baker probably doesn't have the defensive read and intercept capabilities of Gus but what he lacks there he might make up for with a speedier transition into the F50 to give better looks for our key and medium forwards.

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1 hour ago, Rusty Nails said:

Yes Pate I've already commented on the Clarry incident.  And this is another worry.  Ever since Macca failed to handball to a screaming free Tracc just outside the square and instead swung around on his right to kick it himself while being tackled (about 4/5 matches ago) the selfless sharing stuff we saw earlier in the season when we were beating all and sundry has slowly ebbed away to virtually zero.

 

Not sure about this. It seems that every week I see players overdoing the selfless bit and instead of taking a shot at goal themselves when in a good position to do so they attempt a pass off to another player who might be in a better position but we lose the ball in the process. Similarly, we often see one of the midfielders get first possession and instead of kicking forward when able to do so, handpass to another player who is not necessarily in a better position.

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We got away with our poor conversation rate early in the season, we’ve now seen it cost us wins against Adelaide, GWS, and the Hawks. 

 

In the current era, average conversion rates are around 51.4% on 22.3 scoring shots per match — that is, teams have scored an average of 11.6 goals per match. For the purposes of this article goal accuracy or conversion rates is defined as Conversion Rate = Goals / (Goals + Behinds).

In 2021, we are averaging  1.5% less than  the competition norm. Our opponents are 3% above the expected norm.

Here is a break down of our percentage conversions per game, against opponents (losses/draw in red) vs their conversion, as well as a difference between the teams on the day, as well as a % difference from the norm (for our opponents)

1544828319_ScreenShot2021-07-21at10_29_18am.png.8a786ebc0cc91717e3d320c6ae9e3ec6.png

 

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20 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Not sure about this. It seems that every week I see players overdoing the selfless bit and instead of taking a shot at goal themselves when in a good position to do so they attempt a pass off to another player who might be in a better position but we lose the ball in the process. Similarly, we often see one of the midfielders get first possession and instead of kicking forward when able to do so, handpass to another player who is not necessarily in a better position.

Personally i believe those issues are a part of the drop off in cohesion and confidence (especially in kicking skills ....ability to hit up a target).  A drop off in confidence also resulting in player's willingness to take the game/opponenent on and instead pass off responsibility asap to someone else LDC.

This is where you occasionally need an injection of younger talent being brought into the mix as they tend to have no fear or very little vs some of the more experienced boys.  They also come in a little fresher and can bring an energy and attack on the ball (run and carry also) into the group that might be lacking otherwise.  They of course can also bring with them inexperience and lack of a match day tank which may impact the team in other ways, especially late into a match when fatigue sets in.

I see much of this aspect happening with the likes of Sydney and the Sons at the moment.  They are getting great drive from their rookies.  Look at the Hawks last week.  10 rookies that had played only 35 games or less.  About three or so had only played 3 to 5 matches (if the coverage commentators are to be believed).

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22 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

Personally i believe those issues are a part of the drop off in cohesion and confidence (especially in kicking skills ....ability to hit up a target).  A drop off in confidence also resulting in player's willingness to take the game/opponenent on and instead pass off responsibility asap to someone else LDC.

This is where you occasionally need an injection of younger talent being brought into the mix as they tend to have no fear or very little vs some of the more experienced boys.  They also come in a little fresher and can bring an energy and attack on the ball (run and carry also) into the group that might be lacking otherwise.  They of course can also bring with them inexperience and lack of a match day tank which may impact the team in other ways, especially late into a match when fatigue sets in.

I see much of this aspect happening with the likes of Sydney and the Sons at the moment.  They are getting great drive from their rookies.  Look at the Hawks last week.  10 rookies that had played only 35 games or less.  About three or so had only played 3 to 5 matches (if the coverage commentators are to be believed).

"Sydney and the Sons" - sounds like the name of a R&B band.

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I notice with too many set shots that players use up all their time, fiddle with the ball, over angst and grimace, eyes darting left right and centre and over think the situation. Why not just go back and move forward straight away to kick the goal? Look at old footage, players rarely wasted too much time in lining up for goal unless in a tight part of the ground. 

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22 minutes ago, John Crow Batty said:

I notice with too many set shots that players use up all their time, fiddle with the ball, over angst and grimace, eyes darting left right and centre and over think the situation. Why not just go back and move forward straight away to kick the goal? Look at old footage, players rarely wasted too much time in lining up for goal unless in a tight part of the ground. 

Absolutely spot on assessment

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    Demonland | March 25

  • Casey Report      

    HIBERNATING by KC from Casey

    When they locked up the rooms for summer at the end of last year’s football season, the rooms gathered cobwebs, the atmosphere became dense and the place developed a sleepy feel. They opened up the rooms to let Casey out to play on Sunday but the team was still hibernating and they missed the bulk of the opening quarter ... READ MORE

    Demonland | March 25

  • PreGame      

    PREGAME: Rd 03 vs Port Adelaide

    The Demons head out on the road for the next 2 weeks as they travel to Adelaide to play Port on Saturday and then have a 5 Day break before facing the Crows in Gather Round. With injuries to May and Lever who comes in and who goes out? ...READ MORE

    Demonland | March 28

  • Match Report      

    A FORK IN THE HAWK by George on the Outer

    For too long in the past, Demon fans became habitually sick and tired of watching the Hawks hand out thrashings to their side. But Melbourne’s empahtic 55-point win at the MCG on Saturday has truly put a fork in the Hawk and turned that history well and truly on its head ... READ MORE

    Demonland | March 23

  • Post Game      

    POSTGAME: Rd 02 vs Hawthorn

    The Demons cruised to an easy 55 point win over the Hawks at the MCG but but paid a heavy toll on the injury front with Steven May & Jake Lever possibly sidelined for a number of weeks ...READ MORE

    Demonland | March 23

  • Votes      

    VOTES: Rd 02 vs Hawthorn

    Last week Steven May took the lead in the Demonland Player of the Year Award from Jack Viney. Clayton Oliver & Max Gawn round out the Top 4. Your votes for the win/loss against/to the Hawks. 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 ...READ MORE

    Demonland | March 23

  • Game Day      

    GAMEDAY: Round 02 vs Hawthorn

    It's Game Day and after mixed results in the first two weeks of the season the Demons have the opportunity to capitalise on their good form last week when they take on the Hawks at the MCG today ... READ MORE

    Demonland | March 23

  • Training  

    Friday, 22nd March 2024

    Demonland Trackwatcher Kev Martin and I attended the Captain's Run at Gosch's Paddock on this lovely sunny morning to bring you the following observations from the training session ... READ MORE

    Demonland | March 22

  • Training  

    Tuesday, 19th March 2024

    Demonland Trackwatchers Kev Martin & Walking Civil War attended Tuesday morning's training session at Gosch's Paddock to bring you the following observations ... READ MORE

    Demonland | March 19

  • Training  

    Saturday, 16th March 2024

    Demonland Trackwatchers Kev Martin and Dee Zephyr wandered down to Gosch's Paddock on Saturday morning to bring you their observations from the Captain's Run in the lead up to Sunday's Round One match against the Bulldogs ... READ MORE

    Demonland | March 16

  • Farewell  

    Angus Brayshaw Retires

    After 167 games including the drought breaking Premiership Angus Brayshaw has made the heart breaking decision to medically retire from football as a result of a series of serious head knocks over his nearly decade of footy. We wish Gus all the best and he'll always be a hero at Demonland ... READ MORE

    Demonland | February 22

  • Latest Podcast  

    PODCAST: Koltyn Tholstrup Interview

    I interview the Melbourne Football Club’s newest recruit Koltyn Tholstrup to have a chat about his journey from the farm to the Demons, his first few weeks of preseason training, which Dees have impressed him on the track and his aspirations of playing Round 1 ... LISTEN

    Demonland | December 14

  • Latest Podcast  

    PODCAST: Jason Taylor Interview

    I interview the Melbourne Football Club's National Recruitment Manager Jason Taylor to have a chat about our Trade and Draft period, our newest recruits, our recent recruits who have yet to debut as well as those father son prospects on the horizon ... LISTEN

    Demonland | November 27

  • Next Match 

    .

    Round 03

       vs   

    Saturday 30th March 2024
    @ 07:30pm (AO)

  • MFC Forum  

  • Match Previews & Reports  

  • Training Forum  

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  • Topics

  • Injury List  


      PLAYER INJURY LENGTH
    Jake Lever Knee Test
    Clayton Oliver Hand Test
    Oliver Sestan Concussion Test
    Steven May Ribs 1 Week
    Lachie Hunter Calf 1 Week
    Daniel Turner Hip 2-3 Weeks
    Charlie Spargo Achilles 2-4 Weeks
    Shane McAdam Hamstring 3-5 Weeks
    Jake Bowey Shoulder 7 Weeks
    Jake Melksham ACL 12-14 Weeks
    Joel Smith Suspension TBA

  • Player of the Year  


        PLAYER VOTES
    1 Christian Petracca 27
    2 Steven May 25
    3 Max Gawn 21
    4 Jack Viney 20
    5 Bayley Fritsch 19
    6 Clayton Oliver 18
    7 Christian Salem 12
    8 Blake Howes 11
    9 Jack Billings 10
    9 Alex Neal-Bullen 10

        FULL TABLE
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