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Ladder Watch


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40 minutes ago, Mr Steve said:

Geelong will demand a home final and Im guessing so will WB. 

Unless they play an interstate side it won’t happen. 
Firstly Marvel will be considered a greater Covid risk due to the roof and the narrow entrances. Secondly the AFL is a lot more likely to push for bigger crowds at the G come finals because of the space and the ability to social distance. 

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The Run Home:

image.png.1c8fc22a663846e955b3e97a4341bfa6.png

Note:  AFL has said the draw won't change for covid but the schedule of games will.  

I don't think the last 3 can make finals due to their draw and % but have left them in the analysis for this week.

Richmond is highlighted as the most likely to get into the 8.  As much as I would hate a rampaging Richmond in the finals, I would ? if Ess make it.

Sydney were awesome yesterday.  If we make the top 4 I really hope they don't.  

The future is in our hands.  We have the hardest draw.  If we continue the pattern of beat the good sides and play poorly/lose to the bottom sides we stay in top 2.  That draw may just come in handy!

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22 hours ago, Kent said:

Im wit the good doctor after last night

5th for me unfortuantely

Iv'e now changed my mind to your post. I think worthy top 4 on form are Dogs, cats, swans.  

Second tier for the 4th spot are Port, Lions(probable top 4 now.) and Dees.

With the run  home and losses to lowly sides , I think 5th is about right for the season perfomance.

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3-1 from here guarantees top 4 as neither Brisbane nor Sydney could pass us.

Two wins from here gets us to 15-1-6. If we do that:

  1. Brisbane has to go 4-0 to pass us. They have Hawthorn, Fremantle (away), Collingwood and West Coast. They could easily win that entire lot. Will really need to hope like [censored] the Fremantle match is actually played in Perth as that's their hardest game at this point;
  2. Port has to 3-1 to pass us. They have GWS, Adelaide, Carlton and the Dogs. I'd back them in to go 3-1 from that lot.
  3. Sydney has to go 5-0 to pass us. They have Fremantle, Essendon, St Kilda, North and Gold Coast. That's a harder draw than Brisbane or Port IMO. I can't see them winning all five.

Of course, if we only go 1-3 from here we're in big trouble. That would mean Brisbane can drop a game and still pass us whilst Port would only need to go 2-2 to pass us. 

In all likelihood 1-3 means 5th (6th if Sydney do well), 2-2 means 4th and a final vs Geelong or the Dogs, and 3-1 puts us in contention for top 2 (particularly if we beat Geelong in the final round).

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I did a few predictors and if we continue losing and Sydney continue winning we will finish sixth and play West Coast in Perth 

I really hope our bad run is over for the sake of my sanity

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1 hour ago, Kent said:

I did a few predictors and if we continue losing and Sydney continue winning we will finish sixth and play West Coast in Perth 

I really hope our bad run is over for the sake of my sanity

6th gets a Home final vs 7th. 5th gts a Home final vs 8th.

But who knows where finals we be - they may all be in Perth...

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My advice - steer clear of ladder predictors! Forecasting results in this competition, at this time of year, up to 4 weeks ahead is impossible.  Injuries, suspension, covid complications.  Just take it one week at a time.  We control our own destiny.  After this round at worst we are third (hopefully the Tigers can get up today).  If we win next week we won't be below third.  

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3 hours ago, Swooper1987 said:

My advice - steer clear of ladder predictors! Forecasting results in this competition, at this time of year, up to 4 weeks ahead is impossible.  Injuries, suspension, covid complications.  Just take it one week at a time.  We control our own destiny.  After this round at worst we are third (hopefully the Tigers can get up today).  If we win next week we won't be below third.  

Agreed.

Ladder predictors show you what will happen with your predictions of games but your predictions of games will almost never be right.

What we know is the maths: 3-1 from here guarantees top 4, 2-2 requires Brisbane or Sydney to win out to pass us.

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Well, for what it is worth, we are now a mathematical impossibility to miss finals.

Actually, I'm pretty sure we were last week after Freo and the Saints lost, but definitely lock it in now.

It's kind of a funny feeling, considering most of the last 15 years we would consider it a good year if we were even still a mathematical chance of making the finals this late in the season!

Top 2 is difficult but not complex - win at least one more game than either the Cats or Bulldogs, and at least the same number as Port.

Dropping out of the top 4 would require one of Sydney or Brisbane to win two games more than we do in the remaining four rounds, as well as Port gaining one win on us.

We can't really drop below 6th (home elimination final) unless we lose every game and West Coast wins every game.

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Win 2 finish 6th

win 3 finish 3rd

win 4 finish 2nd 

so to finish in top 4 need to beat either cats or eagles at home or both, that’s assuming we beat suns and crows, on current for could drop the lot 

Edited by brendan
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It is in our hands - keep winning and we will be top 2.

That is all we need to know - PS it will necessitate learning to kick goals. 

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Top 4 is completely in our hands. 

We win we cannot lose our top 4 spot. Who cares what the Sydney and Brisbane need to do it's null and void if we win.

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Limping into finals in 5th or 6th spot is no good. We have to find some form somehow. The problem is all our opponents smell blood now. Every game will be a battle.

Let's focus on one game at a time starting with the suns next week. Absolutely have to win that game.

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Unless we find form quickly, we’ll likely finish fifth and play elimination final against Essendon or Richmond. Essendon would roll us on current form. Tigers without Dusty would be an easier match up. 

This feels like 2004 all over again. Going well and top of the ladder, then fall in a heap at the end, finish fifth and go out in straight sets to the eighth placed team.

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Gonna be a rough trot home. Not confident against Geelong but we have a score to settle with Adelaide and I reckon we'll deal with the Suns comfortably. WCE will be a tough one and a good litmus test.

3-1 would be a great result.

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1 hour ago, GCDee said:

Top 4 is completely in our hands. 

We win we cannot lose our top 4 spot. Who cares what the Sydney and Brisbane need to do it's null and void if we win.

What has happened in the past when our destiny has been in our own hands? I predict nothing will have changed and we will have learnt nothing from history and we will falter. I'm expecting 1-3 in the run home and we slip outside top 4. I wouldn't also be surprised at 0-4 and a 5th straight loss in week 1 of finals to end our 2021 campaign. 

Suns: will smell blood and have been in good form. Our boys will chalk it up as a win and we know how that story goes : (Loss)

Eagles: fully packed Optus Stadium (trip from QLD >> Perth) our boys will be sluggish, tired and lethargic and the Eagles will be buoyed by their recent form: (Loss)

Crows: will take some confidence in their last win over us, however at the G we will just get home by < 2 goals (Win)

Cats: in strong form running into finals with all pistons firing. Anyone remember Roos farewell . Well lets home we dont have a repeat of that, but am expecting a rather dominant display with Hawkins kicking 5+ goals (Loss)

Form of late is worrying and i have absolutely no confidence or belief that the boys mental toughness or the coaching staff's planning creativeness / intelligence is anywhere, where it should be. 

Like always, i could be wrong, but the expectation of winning that i had in surplus amounts in Rounds 5-12 has all but disappeared. 

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18 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

3-1 from here guarantees top 4 as neither Brisbane nor Sydney could pass us.

Two wins from here gets us to 15-1-6. If we do that:

  1. Brisbane has to go 4-0 to pass us. They have Hawthorn, Fremantle (away), Collingwood and West Coast. They could easily win that entire lot. Will really need to hope like [censored] the Fremantle match is actually played in Perth as that's their hardest game at this point;
  2. Port has to 3-1 to pass us. They have GWS, Adelaide, Carlton and the Dogs. I'd back them in to go 3-1 from that lot.
  3. Sydney has to go 5-0 to pass us. They have Fremantle, Essendon, St Kilda, North and Gold Coast. That's a harder draw than Brisbane or Port IMO. I can't see them winning all five.

Of course, if we only go 1-3 from here we're in big trouble. That would mean Brisbane can drop a game and still pass us whilst Port would only need to go 2-2 to pass us. 

In all likelihood 1-3 means 5th (6th if Sydney do well), 2-2 means 4th and a final vs Geelong or the Dogs, and 3-1 puts us in contention for top 2 (particularly if we beat Geelong in the final round).

I'll simplify it for everyone..... we will not finish top 4 BOOKMARK IT.  If u cannot beat bottom teams when u should... ur future is laid out in front of u in vivid stark reality

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4 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

Agreed.

Ladder predictors show you what will happen with your predictions of games but your predictions of games will almost never be right.

What we know is the maths: 3-1 from here guarantees top 4, 2-2 requires Brisbane or Sydney to win out to pass us.

...and a couple of up-coming games with umpires who are accountable...

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1 minute ago, Sir Why You Little said:

Plummeting to 3rd. Is it free fall?

Or do we have some inner strength 

stay tuned. 

I dont think we have cattle or steet smarts unfortunatey too many ""iffys"

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10 hours ago, Superunknown said:

I’ll take that bet. I think we will go 2-2 but it could easily be 1-3. 

So who will we beat Super?

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35 minutes ago, Kent said:

So who will we beat Super?

Great question - I honestly don’t know - which team turns up? The only game I’m sort of comfortable with is Adelaide. I honestly have had little confidence week to week since the North game - yes yes despite going 9-0. Cats Tigers Dogs Port good wins but to me they’ve felt anomalous….hawks x 2, pies, north, Saints, bombers, swans, Adelaide even the blues . That’s just me though.

if the earlier season melbourne turns up well we could go 3-1 or 4-0 but I think the cats are going to run amok. I hope that game isn’t to try and save too 4. I afear we’ll fall apart.

very happy to be wrong though !!!! 
 

 

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