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1 hour ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

A summary of the Run Home:

image.png.58c1c9b74688dd0ab67065ea9face523.png

 

After this weekend's upsets good luck trying to predict the ladder order at end of H&A.  Never before has the adage that 'any team can win on any given day' been so true.  So no team can afford to relax even for what last week seemed to be 'easy' games.

Interestingly the Bulldogs play the same 3 of the bottom 5 sides as we do so should be an even run home.  Lions also play 2 of those 3 'lower' teams. 

Observations:

  • I would think the top 6 teams are set but the order is up for grabs. 
  • Round 20 will probably decide the minor premiers:  Demons or Bulldogs. 
  • Sydney is the only team that does not play a top 6 contender and only Freo as a top 8 contender, have a healthy list so could easily jump to 4th.
  • Freo.  Virtually playing an elimination final each week.  Doubt they will make the 8.
  • Eagles.  Well what can one say.  Boo stadium is no longer a fortress.  Ess, Bulldogs and North have beaten them there this year. And vs North they had their best 22.  Would love to see them miss.
  • Saints. Like Freo they are playing an elimination final nearly every week.  Their relatively poor % may cost them in the end.
  • GWS.  Like Freo and Saints nearly every week will be an elimination final.  That draw may come in very handy.
  • Ess:  An 'easie'r draw than others and have very good % so a good chance of making the 8.  I so desperately hope they don't.
  • Richmond:  Oh how the might have fallen.  A lot needs to go there way to make it.

Each week there are at least four 8-pt games

On paper, Ess and Rich have the better chance of making the 8.  ???

Unless Richmond make it we are the only finals team with the G as our home ground.

If the top 3 stay the same regardless of order we will have at least 2 Home finals at the G.

Look at round 23.  It will be a doozie and depending how the cards fall will be key to final 8 order, especially if Saints and Freo are still in contention for a finals spot.

Many thanks for this.  It saves me searching for each team seperately.

I note there is a small error in that you have put Geelong down for 4 games against top 8 teams.  They actually have only 2 with 3 against  9 - 12 teams.

I thought last week we had one of the hardest runs home.  Now it doesnt look so bad by comparison.

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I did the ladder predictor but changed the WCE and Bulldogs games to a loss, along with a loss against Geelong. It has us finishing 3rd and playing Bulldogs in the first final. 

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2 hours ago, Jaded said:

How are we at more of a risk to be kicked out of top 4 than the other 3 below us who have won one or two less games?

 

never said more of a risk, was just thinking worst case.  the other 3 do have easier runs so for me the biggest threat to our top 4 status is Port

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22 minutes ago, FritschyBusiness said:

We will not lose all 3 of those games

I agree. with our form this year it is more likely we will lose to the Hawks or Suns.  We do great against the good teams

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7 hours ago, Bimbo said:

Many thanks for this.  It saves me searching for each team seperately.

I note there is a small error in that you have put Geelong down for 4 games against top 8 teams.  They actually have only 2 with 3 against  9 - 12 teams.

I thought last week we had one of the hardest runs home.  Now it doesnt look so bad by comparison.

Glad you found it useful.  Makes the work worthwhile.

Thanks for picking up the error.  I will fix it in the next update (after each round). 

I just noticed that I have misclassified Freo in the count when they play.  Will fix it with next revision.

Edited by Lucifer's Hero
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17 hours ago, Pates said:

I can see it that way, but I also would love to see them miss purely because after we beat them the tigers fans and players (and media) were all arrogantly saying, “oh yeah well done, but we’ll get you in the finals”. I’d just love to see them miss finals to come back at them saying, “sorry what was that about getting us in the finals?”

Agree with all that.

The narrative coming out post Anzac eve on the Richmond Bigfooty forum was "Can't wait to play Melbourne in the finals. We'll beat them when the games actually count"

and "Kozzie Pickett's got a target on his back in the first qualifying final"

I can only hope our supporters won't be as arrogant as Richmonds once we complete our 4peat.

 

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4 hours ago, whatwhat say what said:

gc17 are, at the moment, a form team in the competition

Agreed. Suns have been  good the past fortnight and a win over the Dogs isn't out of the question, if indeed the Dogs are having their obligatory slump. 

Hopefully when we play GC it will be a repeat of the Essendon win where we showed the opposition just enough respect to get the job done.

It's the Hawthorn type game this weekend where we've had all sorts of problems this year.

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12 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Agree with all that.

The narrative coming out post Anzac eve on the Richmond Bigfooty forum was "Can't wait to play Melbourne in the finals. We'll beat them when the games actually count"

and "Kozzie Pickett's got a target on his back in the first qualifying final"

I can only hope our supporters won't be as arrogant as Richmonds once we complete our 4peat.

 

Not a chance - I will be super obnoxious during and after our 4peat. 

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The Roos win not only dropped WC into the 8 pressure cooker but also put a bit of pressure on the very bottom of the ladder in the race for the wooden spoon. that means there is interest all the way from top to bottom.

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On 7/12/2021 at 9:28 AM, leave it to deever said:

Looking at the Cats run home, I have a feeling they will be number one.

Let them have it.

They're old legs will be too tired come their 25th game if they make it that far!

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7 hours ago, Dr.D said:

All these people recognising that top 4 is in danger after I called it out 3 weeks ago and got called out for it. lolz

How predictable. 

You also said we'd lose to Essendon and Port.

How predictable.

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14 minutes ago, Pollyanna said:

You also said we'd lose to Essendon and Port.

How predictable.

It isn't in Danger. We win the next two. its a formality.

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16 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

The narrative coming out post Anzac eve on the Richmond Bigfooty forum was "Can't wait to play Melbourne in the finals. We'll beat them when the games actually count"

and "Kozzie Pickett's got a target on his back in the first qualifying final"

I can only hope our supporters won't be as arrogant as Richmonds once we complete our 4peat.

 

I've heard of terms such as "passive aggressive", "backhanded compliments" and "delicious irony" but there must be a term to use for this bolded line. Is it "implied overconfidence"?

Edited by La Dee-vina Comedia
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On 7/13/2021 at 10:12 AM, loges said:

My take is that every side has their down days and so far we have had the least. May it continue.

I think we've had a lot more down days that the doggies or cats, but from that we've only managed to lose 3 times and have won a few (Nth, Ess), whereas when the Dogs or Cats have been beaten, it hasn't been due to a down day, they've truly been beaten by better sides. My take on that is come finals, down days should be eliminated, which should be good for us. 

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8 hours ago, Dr.D said:

All these people recognising that top 4 is in danger after I called it out 3 weeks ago and got called out for it. lolz

How predictable. 

With all the upsets top 4 is in danger for all finals sides. Captain obvious.

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7 hours ago, Doug Reemer said:

Let them have it.

They're old legs will be too tired come their 25th game if they make it that far!

A few commentators have said they have the best fwd line and we have the best defence.

Im hoping our fwd line will come together with bb as the lynchpin now and we will have one just as potent come finals.

Edited by leave it to deever
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Round 18 will be interesting to watch unfold with regard to ladder positions.

We play on Saturday evening against the Hawks at the same time as the Dogs play the Suns away at Metricon. The way the Suns are playing at the moment, you never know, the Dogs might just stumble.

All the games that could have an effect on the top 8 mostly take place before our game with the Cats playing the Dockers on Thursday night in Perth. Not a game that the Cats can afford to take lightly with Dockers at home and playing week in week out for a place in the 8.

Friday night, Tigers Vs Lions at the G. Lions gathering injuries and the Tigers just about on the last roll of the dice to remain competitive for the 8.

And before our game on Saturday the Giants play the Swans on Mars. Giants playing to keep pushing for the 8 and the Swans looking better and better each week in a push for the top 4. This game should finish just as we are beginning.

Saints, Port play just after us so by the end of business Saturday we will have a clear idea of the state of play.

Sunday’s games will have an impact on the lower reaches of the 8 and on the race for the wooden spoon.

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On 7/11/2021 at 10:12 PM, Wadda We Sing said:

I really think we can beat Geelong at Geelong....and we will play them again in finals.

They only kicked 2 goals in a whole game a few weeks ago....not sure what all that was about.....finals loading perhaps?

Or just an ageing team if has been a not up to it. 

On 7/12/2021 at 6:28 AM, Deemania since 56 said:

We just have to hit the Hawks hard - very hard - so bring in AVB to sort a few nasties in their team. AVB was allegedly BOG for Casey last weekend, playing a very commendable, experienced, fast, linkaged game. Time for a newbie, too - in the backline (Bowie?) to release Hunt for some attacking, sprinting practices upfield against the Hawks. 

AVB and Bowie - for whom?

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On 7/13/2021 at 11:00 AM, Nelo said:

I did the ladder predictor but changed the WCE and Bulldogs games to a loss, along with a loss against Geelong. It has us finishing 3rd and playing Bulldogs in the first final. 

 I really cant see us losing to WC atm....

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13 hours ago, Red and Blue realist said:

I think we've had a lot more down days that the doggies or cats, but from that we've only managed to lose 3 times and have won a few (Nth, Ess), whereas when the Dogs or Cats have been beaten, it hasn't been due to a down day, they've truly been beaten by better sides. My take on that is come finals, down days should be eliminated, which should be good for us. 

Great post. Completely agree with this. Bulldogs have been consistent all year. They've just been solidly beaten by teams when beaten. They haven't had a form slump yet. I wonder if that'll come closer to the end of the year?

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15 hours ago, CHF said:

Round 18 will be interesting to watch unfold with regard to ladder positions.

...

And before our game on Saturday the Giants play the Swans on Mars. Giants playing to keep pushing for the 8 and the Swans looking better and better each week in a push for the top 4. This game should finish just as we are beginning.

Saints, Port play just after us so by the end of business Saturday we will have a clear idea of the state of play.

Sunday’s games will have an impact on the lower reaches of the 8 and on the race for the wooden spoon.

Aged well.

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