CHANGES: Rd 17 vs Port Adelaide

[WA Demon Boy 966]

24 minutes ago, binman said:

All teams have to bring their effort and will pay if they don't. But the  dogs, cats and lions sneak wins because even when off they  an rely on a handful of key players to kick difficult shots and nail both easy and hard passes inside 50.

The Cats stayed in their game against ess in the first quarter becuase of their elite kicks. The dogs were just paddling agianst the roos but players like MCrae, Bont and Bailey Dale did both the basics and difficult well

So, we have poor kicks. And i reckon we are fatigued. And nothing exacerbates poor technique like fatigue. 

We won't win the flag unless we are physically ready to go and cheery ripe come finals. And it would make sense to build that base now, even if that risks losing some games we might otherwise win.

I'm increasingly convinced that is what is going on. 

Dogs, Cats and Lions have players that nail the fundamentals and not only this - they have the class. Especially the Lions and Dogs. 

Put simply, we don't. 

We don't have the group at the moment to win the flag. Yes we have some very, very good players. 

But our bottom 4-6 is really average and it always comes down to this. 

If you stack our 4-6 worst players versus Lions/Dogs bottom 4-6 there will be a large difference. 

This is why Richmond have been so good for the last 4 seasons. 

Their style of play is a big reason, but their 4-6 worst players are still good contributors.  

I won't accept fatigue as an excuse, but I will accept the fact that we just don't have the list right now.

[binman 37,793]

11 minutes ago, WA Demon Boy said:

Dogs, Cats and Lions have players that nail the fundamentals and not only this - they have the class. Especially the Lions and Dogs. 

Put simply, we don't. 

We don't have the group at the moment to win the flag. Yes we have some very, very good players. 

But our bottom 4-6 is really average and it always comes down to this. 

If you stack our 4-6 worst players versus Lions/Dogs bottom 4-6 there will be a large difference. 

This is why Richmond have been so good for the last 4 seasons. 

Their style of play is a big reason, but their 4-6 worst players are still good contributors.  

I won't accept fatigue as an excuse, but I will accept the fact that we just don't have the list right now.
 

Reasons are not excuses.

Our bottom 4-6 is every bit as good as that of the tigers in their premiership seasons. As is our top 10. 

They won those flags becuase of their system. And complete buy in to the system and preparedness by every player to play their assigned role.

It is worth noting that in 2017, 2019 and 2020, at the end of the home and away the tigers finished 3rd (15-7), 3rd (16-6) and 3rd (12-4-1).

Which is unsurprising given their ballistic model, like ours, is all but impossible to keep at the level week in week out. Which by the by is something they never tied to do. Their run to he flags started each year from about now

We absolutely have the team to win the flag this year.   

[Demon Dynasty 15,210]

4 hours ago, Win4theAges said:

I have a theory they have moved Tmac higher in a CHF capacity in anticipation for the return of BBB to FF.

They could have more accurately tested that theory by playing BB on Sat W4 surely.

With 50% of the theory not included in the practical experiment, this unfortunately left the forward line devoid of a genuine goal kicking KF.  And effectively the loss of 4 critical points that may decide our fate at year's end.

History repeating?  ie; games we expected to win or should have but didn't which cost us a finals berth)  ...2017,  2020,  2021*?

*Top two / four

[WA Demon Boy 966]

9 minutes ago, binman said:

Reasons are not excuses.

Our bottom 4-6 is every bit as good as that of the tigers in their premiership seasons. As is our top 10. 

They won those flags becuase of their system. And complete buy in to the system and preparedness by every player to play their assigned role.

It is worth noting that in 2017, 2019 and 2020, at the end of the home and away the tigers finished 3rd (15-7), 3rd (16-6) and 3rd (12-4-1).

Which is unsurprising given their ballistic model, like ours, is all but impossible to keep at the level week in week out. Which by the by is something they never tied to do. Their run to he flags started each year from about now

 

Totally agree that their system played a major role and that you can't keep playing great week in and week out. Loses come and I can live with that (our loses this year haven't been alarming either - even vs GWS we could of sneaked home had it been for a few snaps and better use i50) 

Would you not agree that we're missing 1-2 players who can take us to a more even spread of talent? 

Say for example a Maynard and another outside player (not sure who that is but someone who just adds a bit of polish). 

 

 

 

[binman 37,793]

10 minutes ago, WA Demon Boy said:

Totally agree that their system played a major role and that you can't keep playing great week in and week out. Loses come and I can live with that (our loses this year haven't been alarming either - even vs GWS we could of sneaked home had it been for a few snaps and better use i50) 

Would you not agree that we're missing 1-2 players who can take us to a more even spread of talent? 

Say for example a Maynard and another outside player (not sure who that is but someone who just adds a bit of polish). 

 

 

 

Yes I would agree. Particularly a couple of excellent kicks.

[picket fence 15,059]

4 hours ago, drysdale demon said:

The goal kicking across the comp. this year to date is the worst it has been for a long period of time, it is not just the MFC

And do you know why?? No Set shot routine!!! Blokes want to be fancy kicking around corners, and the like GARBAGE !!

[picket fence 15,059]

3 hours ago, A F said:

I worry about Bowey coming in to a big finals like atmosphere, but maybe we could try him against a Hawthorn? Flirting with form, I know.

I think Bowey is being groomed as a Salem back up, but Hunt's position is probably his other go to.

No not Hunt, SPARGY PANTS!!

[Mental Demons 136]

The other teams have figured us out and Goodwin is not a good enough of a coach to be able to have a different way of playing other teams’ styles. Goodwin is a one trick pony and we were very lucky in the first half of this season, it went to our heads. We have become instantly beatable and without a competent forward line. All teams have to do is halve the contest and challenge us to kick a score. I still don’t think Goodwin will win a grand final with us but we have a good enough list to win one.

 

The two most deserving of being dropped is Viney – because he is playing like he is too old and he did not have to prove himself at Casey to be selected. Perhaps when one is on as long a contract as Viney the team is stuck with him anyway. Make Viney earn his place, drop him.

 

A while ago I warned that picking Jackson as a forward is going to stop us developing a good forward line. It seems I was right. Last Saturday we did not have a tall forward target, that was meant to be Jackson’s job if he was picked as a forward. The reality is Jackson is picked as a second ruck and the only goals he kicks are joe the goose goals. He is not a forward and has been holding genuine goal kicking forwards out all year. No wonder we have such a poor record in the forward line. I still expect Jackson to be traded back to the west at the end of the season.

 

If we do not pick tall target forwards we can’t expect our crumbing small forwards to do what they are best at. I suspect Kossi and Spargo have not been doing their job but it is not really their fault. We have good small forwards doing well at Casey but I would like to see Kossi and Spargo have a go at crumbing to a tall forward.

 

I would drop Jackson for a tall forward. Viney is easy to replace as we found out in Viney’s last extended injury break, we can win without him. I would not have a problem with having a look at a different small forward setup but as happy to give Spargo and Kossi a chance to work with a tall forward.

[drysdale demon 4,143]

8 minutes ago, picket fence said:

And do you know why?? No Set shot routine!!! Blokes want to be fancy kicking around corners, and the like GARBAGE !!

Don't go crook at me, email all the clubs and tell them. You never know you may get a job as a goal kicking coach by telling them how you used to do it.

[dee-tox 4,772]

I'm not sure selection can fix all of our problems from Saturday.

We were slaughtered particularly in the first half around the ball. Oliver and Petracca were quiet. Harmes, Jordon, Viney and Sparrow were unable to pick up the slack. Would giving Viney a 'rest' allowing Jordon to play his best role help? Maybe. Would van den Berg help? Maybe. He hits hard and helps create space. 

We lack precise ball movement going forward. TMac was playing too high up leaving Fritsch to battle it out with guys much bigger than him. Maybe having Melksham back helps with the 'connection'?

We had no no targets going forward. We had Max sitting in a pocket on occasion not doing much. Would Ben Brown straighten us us up? Maybe. But what do we do with Gawn and Jackson? 

We lacked run off half back. Salem, Rivers, Hunt and Hibberd are important here. Hibberd also has to hurt his opponent going the other way and not just be lock down. We need speed coming off half back and all four have a part to play. Salem also needs to take the less safe option more often. Dinky 15 metre kicks allow the opposition to get numbers back and he needs to pull the trigger more often and launch a 45-metre pass to a one-one-one or kick into space.

Our small forwards were unable to apply enough pressure to lock the ball in. Part of this is the midfield coming to help out. Is Chandler worth a go to add some run, especially after a five-day break? 

So for me: Outs: Viney, Sparrow and Harmes

Ins: vDB, Melksham and Brown

 

[Binmans PA 25,897]

2 hours ago, binman said:

We have the players to run off half back, that's not an issue. But our lack of overlap run and dare was super evident on Saturday. 

I know Goody said we are doing any extra training loads but frankly I don't believe him. 

We are not running out our games the way we were in the first 10 games or so, we are not playing with anywhere near the same intensity, our defensive running has been off for 3 weeks and we have lost our overlap run. All that points to a team that is physically tired. And perhaps mentally tired too, but i reckon that's less the issue. 

An issue for us is how many young players we have in the team and it is totally normally for young players to be flagging at this stage of the season. So that's part of it no doubt.

But you make an excellent point about the TOG percentages, with the young'uns getting a lot of bench time and the senior players conversely up around the 90% plus range. But any extra loads on top will impact the senior players and younger players. 

Our game, like Richmond. is super taxing - physically and mentally. The system is completely dependent on huge physical effort. And when that drops off, for whatever reason, we come well and truly back to he pack.

And we have major Achilles heel that is exposed when drop off our physical aspect - our kicking is woeful. We are mid table at best in terms of kicking skills across the board.

It is important to put our losses into perspective. We have kept oppositions to low enough scores and our average losing margin is only 9 points. But in each of those losses, our terrible foot skills has been a huge factors.

The obvious ones are missed shots on goal, but more frustrating is the terrible missed passes inside 50. So many wasted chances where all that was required was a basic 30 meter kick to a free target. And tracc has been worst offender

All teams have to bring their effort and will pay if they don't. But the  dogs, cats and lions sneak wins because even when off they  an rely on a handful of key players to kick difficult shots and nail both easy and hard passes inside 50.

The Cats stayed in their game against ess in the first quarter becuase of their elite kicks. The dogs were just paddling agianst the roos but players like MCrae, Bont and Bailey Dale did both the basics and difficult well

So, we have poor kicks. And i reckon we are fatigued. And nothing exacerbates poor technique like fatigue. 

We won't win the flag unless we are physically ready to go and cheery ripe come finals. And it would make sense to build that base now, even if that risks losing some games we might otherwise win.

I'm increasingly convinced that is what is going on. 

Completely agree. We needed to handball and break lines to break open the zone, but didn't. 

To your point about our foot skills being poor in our losses, I'd say our goal kicking in all of those games has been woeful and is the key reason we haven't snatched those games when the rest of our game has otherwise been off. The Adelaide game Fritsch missed two from essentially the square and the Collingwood and GWS losses saw us miss regulation shots we were getting earlier in the year.

I remember many of us, myself include, saying earlier in the season that our goalkicking would eventually cost us games this year. IMO, it's now cost us three wins and almost cost us the Essendon game too.

That said, there's no doubt that Geelong and particularly the Bulldogs are wonderful kicking sides. Not sure Port are though. Brisbane have some wonderful kickers like McLuggage for example, but also have some pretty ho hums distributors by foot that are no better or worse than our mids like Zorko, Neale and Robinson. 

I hope you're right about the training loads, rather than it merely being just TOG management. There's no doubt we've struggled physically and intensity wise since the Brisbane game. I don't think it's a case of being the hunted, although maybe that's a mental and even physical toll that we're not giving enough weight to here. I think it was Salem who mentioned in his post match interview that it's good being a team at the top, because we need to experience this as a group. I feel like Goodwin has said similar things, so perhaps the mental has bogged us down too?

[rjay 23,867]

2 hours ago, binman said:

I know Goody said we are doing any extra training loads but frankly I don't believe him. 

Yeah, I'm with you here 'bin'...it's not mental exhaustion.

We've hit a brick wall and that points to heavy training loads.

You could see it with Max going back to the Pies game on...he's just not covering the same ground.

I'm not talking about a skinny kid or ageing veteran, I'm talking about a player in his prime.

We could be way off the mark 'bin' but as I said to old mate 'Kent' of the sack Goodwin brigade, the next few weeks will tell the story.

[Superunknown 3,307]

1 hour ago, Mental Demons said:

The other teams have figured us out and Goodwin is not a good enough of a coach to be able to have a different way of playing other teams’ styles. Goodwin is a one trick pony and we were very lucky in the first half of this season, it went to our heads. We have become instantly beatable and without a competent forward line. All teams have to do is halve the contest and challenge us to kick a score. I still don’t think Goodwin will win a grand final with us but we have a good enough list to win one.

 

The two most deserving of being dropped is Viney – because he is playing like he is too old and he did not have to prove himself at Casey to be selected. Perhaps when one is on as long a contract as Viney the team is stuck with him anyway. Make Viney earn his place, drop him.

 

A while ago I warned that picking Jackson as a forward is going to stop us developing a good forward line. It seems I was right. Last Saturday we did not have a tall forward target, that was meant to be Jackson’s job if he was picked as a forward. The reality is Jackson is picked as a second ruck and the only goals he kicks are joe the goose goals. He is not a forward and has been holding genuine goal kicking forwards out all year. No wonder we have such a poor record in the forward line. I still expect Jackson to be traded back to the west at the end of the season.

 

If we do not pick tall target forwards we can’t expect our crumbing small forwards to do what they are best at. I suspect Kossi and Spargo have not been doing their job but it is not really their fault. We have good small forwards doing well at Casey but I would like to see Kossi and Spargo have a go at crumbing to a tall forward.

 

I would drop Jackson for a tall forward. Viney is easy to replace as we found out in Viney’s last extended injury break, we can win without him. I would not have a problem with having a look at a different small forward setup but as happy to give Spargo and Kossi a chance to work with a tall forward.

Ken Hinkley is that you?

or Jackos mum pining for his return home

[Superunknown 3,307]

37 minutes ago, A F said:

Completely agree. We needed to handball and break lines to break open the zone, but didn't. 

To your point about our foot skills being poor in our losses, I'd say our goal kicking in all of those games has been woeful and is the key reason we haven't snatched those games when the rest of our game has otherwise been off. The Adelaide game Fritsch missed two from essentially the square and the Collingwood and GWS losses saw us miss regulation shots we were getting earlier in the year.

I remember many of us, myself include, saying earlier in the season that our goalkicking would eventually cost us games this year. IMO, it's now cost us three wins and almost cost us the Essendon game too.

That said, there's no doubt that Geelong and particularly the Bulldogs are wonderful kicking sides. Not sure Port are though. Brisbane have some wonderful kickers like McLuggage for example, but also have some pretty ho hums distributors by foot that are no better or worse than our mids like Zorko, Neale and Robinson. 

I hope you're right about the training loads, rather than it merely being just TOG management. There's no doubt we've struggled physically and intensity wise since the Brisbane game. I don't think it's a case of being the hunted, although maybe that's a mental and even physical toll that we're not giving enough weight to here. I think it was Salem who mentioned in his post match interview that it's good being a team at the top, because we need to experience this as a group. I feel like Goodwin has said similar things, so perhaps the mental has bogged us down too?

Scary to think with good kicking we could be 15-0

[Bags 34]

The difference between the top teams and everyone else is not a whole lot. On a bad day, anyone can be beaten. I trust the players and the coaches to come good soon. 

[Demon Dynasty 15,210]

2 hours ago, Mental Demons said:

A while ago I warned that picking Jackson as a forward is going to stop us developing a good forward line. It seems I was right. Last Saturday we did not have a tall forward target, that was meant to be Jackson’s job if he was picked as a forward. The reality is Jackson is picked as a second ruck and the only goals he kicks are joe the goose goals. He is not a forward and has been holding genuine goal kicking forwards out all year. No wonder we have such a poor record in the forward line. I still expect Jackson to be traded back to the west at the end of the season.

If we do not pick tall target forwards we can’t expect our crumbing small forwards to do what they are best at. I suspect Kossi and Spargo have not been doing their job but it is not really their fault. We have good small forwards doing well at Casey but I would like to see Kossi and Spargo have a go at crumbing to a tall forward.

I would drop Jackson for a tall forward. Viney is easy to replace as we found out in Viney’s last extended injury break, we can win without him. I would not have a problem with having a look at a different small forward setup but as happy to give Spargo and Kossi a chance to work with a tall forward.

While not completely convinced yet.... and still seeing a possible relief role for Dogga (when Gawny is injured & assuming BB is in), I am beginning to lean towards this argument.

He is also potentially keeping out the likes of Melk who could play through the middle at times and connect with the likes of T-Mac (assuming he isn't way up field from 50 like he was most of the time Sat).

However i would have loved to see Goodwin experimenting with this situation much earlier than with just seven rounds to go.

He may have left this aspect to too late which might have already sealed our fate for 2021.  Hoping I'm wrong.

Viney isn't as bad as you say once he hits form but at this point in time he does feel like a lead weight around the neck.  Might need some time at Casey and instead play Chunk when fit (1st preference) or ABV in a fill in (non permanent) role until Chunk is available and/or Viney hits some hot form prior to Rnd 21 or so.   I wouldn't want Viney coming back in just in time for finals in his present form.  That's not to say we would ...just saying.

Having said all that I'm of the view that if BB gets in he will hopefully straiten us up both with our forward 50 entries and accuracy in front of goals.  Plus bring the likes of Kozzie into the game in a crumbing / goal kicking sense.

I'm still not convinced Spargo is the answer at this stage.  Would love to have picked up Weightman in the draft if wishes were horses.  A better version of Spargo (on steroids) who can take speckies and score more consistently.

Edited July 6, 2021 by Rusty Nails

[dazzledavey36 48,646]

37 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

While not completely convinced yet.... and still seeing a possible relief role for Dogga (when Gawny is injured & assuming BB is in), I am beginning to lean towards this argument.

He is also potentially keeping out the likes of Melk who could play through the middle at times and connect with the likes of T-Mac (assuming he isn't way up field from 50 like he was most of the time Sat).

However i would have loved to see Goodwin experimenting with this situation much earlier than with just seven rounds to go.

He may have left this aspect to too late which might have already sealed our fate for 2021.  Hoping I'm wrong.

Viney isn't as bad as you say once he hits form but at this point in time he does feel like a lead weight around the neck.  Might need some time at Casey and instead play Chunk when fit (1st preference) or ABV in a fill in (non permanent) role until Chunk is available and/or Viney hits some hot form prior to Rnd 21 or so.   I wouldn't want Viney coming back in just in time for finals in his present form.  That's not to say we would ...just saying.

Having said all that I'm of the view that if BB gets in he will hopefully straiten us up both with our forward 50 entries and accuracy in front of goals.  Plus bring the likes of Kozzie into the game in a crumbing / goal kicking sense.

I'm still not convinced Spargo is the answer at this stage.  Would love to have picked up Weightman in the draft if wishes were horses.  A better version of Spargo (on steroids) who can take speckies and score more consistently.

I too said have said that I believe Jackson is a weak link in our forward. He has no forward IQ and his leading patterns is all over the shop. Not only that he never threatens in the air which pretty much leaves McDonald and Fritsch as the main two key forwards. 

His ruck work and around the stuff is amazing, but up forward he's a witches cones unfortunately. 

We've trialled McDonald, Weideman and Brown once all together. I would certainly like to see more of it.

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,106]

1 hour ago, Superunknown said:

Scary to think with good kicking we could be 15-0

The Adelaide loss was our third most accurate scoreline of the year. The trouble with that game was that Adelaide kicked an unsustainable 15.6. Walker, Fogarty and Co couldn’t miss that day.

Collingwood kicked 11.14 and outscored us by 7 shots. It was a genuinely deserved loss by the Dees.

Last week was the game where our inaccuracy absolutely cost us a game of footy.

[Half forward flank 1,022]

3 hours ago, picket fence said:

And do you know why?? No Set shot routine!!! Blokes want to be fancy kicking around corners, and the like GARBAGE !!

Spot on. Every other sport people practice their routines. I will probably be ridiculed but close in the old punt kick was ungainly but accurate.  

[Binmans PA 25,897]

43 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

The Adelaide loss was our third most accurate scoreline of the year. The trouble with that game was that Adelaide kicked an unsustainable 15.6. Walker, Fogarty and Co couldn’t miss that day.

Collingwood kicked 11.14 and outscored us by 7 shots. It was a genuinely deserved loss by the Dees.

Last week was the game where our inaccuracy absolutely cost us a game of footy.

We lost by a point and Fritsch missed from the goal square.

[Redleg 37,478]

14 minutes ago, A F said:

We lost by a point and Fritsch missed from the goal square.

And a Crow dropped it and then it was kicked 8 metres to Tex , who goaled and put them in front and then another Crow pushed Pickett in the back as he tried to mark 20 out from our goal and then another Crow hand balled it straight out, all in the last two minutes and all not paid to us after several dubious frees and goals therefrom were handed to the Crows.

Funny game footy.

Edited July 6, 2021 by Redleg

[Docs Demons 1,656]

38 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

The Adelaide loss was our third most accurate scoreline of the year. The trouble with that game was that Adelaide kicked an unsustainable 15.6. Walker, Fogarty and Co couldn’t miss that day.

Collingwood kicked 11.14 and outscored us by 7 shots. It was a genuinely deserved loss by the Dees.

Last week was the game where our inaccuracy absolutely cost us a game of footy.

We all need to remember that it is not all doom and gloom. The 3 losses have been by minimal amounts with Magpies winning by 17 points I think, being most so whilst we are playing crap at moment it only needs a little tinkering, a few players to get back to their best, the bottom 6 to again put in and on and upwards we go. I hope so .

[Binmans PA 25,897]

I watched the Port v Suns game a few weeks ago and saw Gray injure his knee. Hadn't realised he'd gone in for surgery though. 

With him missing and Boak in doubt, with Butters no certainty to come back in, at the very least coming back from injury, it has to tip the scales our way. 

How much do our guys want to make a statement about our 2020 loss to Port too?

Given Port's forward set up is anchored around Dixon, if we keep him quiet, you'd have to think that'll go a long way towards us winning.

Edited July 6, 2021 by A F

[YesitwasaWin4theAges 5,789]

2 hours ago, Superunknown said:

Scary to think with good kicking we could be 15-0

I don't understand all the miserable sods on here. Our average losing margin is 9pts FFS and we're 2/3 into a season 2nd on the ladder.

I think this might be Burgo's final gift to the club, the Malcolm Blight inspired mini pre season within the season. 

Goody lived it in 97 and 98, could be onto something here Bin.

[YesitwasaWin4theAges 5,789]

1 minute ago, A F said:

I watched the Port Suns game after weeks ago and saw Gray injury his knee. Hadn't realised he'd gone in for surgery though. 

With him missing and Boak in doubt, with Butters no certainty to come back in, at the very least coming back from injury, it has to tip the scales our way. 

How much do our guys want to make a statement about our 2020 loss to Port too?

I'm expecting a backs to the wall type response from our football club.