CHANGES: Rd 16 vs GWS

[BW511 2,236]

37 minutes ago, Pollyanna said:

It's B.Brown for Fritsch for me.

I think Fritsch is a dangerous player who uses his smarts to get free, I also think he can play a negating role on medium intercept marking backs which is very valuable.  He's a good player who has been key in some of our wins this year.

But I think we need a contested marking target in our forward structure and something has to give.

I don't want to go with one less mid to accommodate an extra tall.  In the last quarter whenever Essendon had the ball on the back 50 I saw 4 MFC jumpers along the line of the centre square guarding the corridor and forcing them down the line.  I think in the end that's why we won.  That takes discipline and great running and I think we need the critical mass of mids to achieve it.  Sparrow played limited minutes but had high impact for that time - he was involved in some great handball chains, tackles strongly and kicked a clutch goal - he stays in for me.

Big finals are won in the contest - B.Brown offers more aerial contest deep inside 50 than Fritsch.  They both have similar defensive profiles when the ball hits the ground and I think we can only afford one of that type.  Fritsch would need to consistently kick more goals than B.Brown to make up for the lack of aerial contest and I don't think he can.

I had a few goes at writing something similar, it was hard to articulate without seeming overly critical of Fritta.

I feel his position is the one that worries me in September (Or whenever finals land). He isn't physical and in tight finals games, he will not create opportunities in the same way Spargo or Kossie could. He's clearly very smart and a good mark, but in a final he won't have space that he requires and we can't afford to carry that. Using our own example, I would be very comfortable with Hibbo or Riv lining up on Fritta in a final, even if May or Lever had BBB I'd always be nervous of him plucking a few and kicking goals and our defence is the best in the comp.

Understand he is our leading goal kicker, so people will disagree, but I would rather Sparrow in the lead up to and including finals

 

Edited June 28, 2021 by BW511

[Fat Tony 4,370]

19 minutes ago, Deestar9 said:

Pretty sure that Viney said he has been nursed & prepared for the pointy part of the season. They have been extremely cautious & not bought him back early so would be very surprised if he missed next week 

My post was just that he might pull up sore given he has not played for so long. I would not be surprised if he misses. You can only do so much work to prepare for a game of AFL football and he looked to be very tired at the end of the game on Saturday.

[Kent 2,574]

56 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

ANB had 31 pressure acts (only Viney for either side had more), 5 tackles (our most), and his opponent was Hind who didn't do much at all.

The vandenBerg love in has got to be toned back. He's not best 22 and he doesn't have the speed, tank or forward nous to replace ANB.

If you watched the Casey game there was no problems with AVBs ' speed nor his nouse

 

 

[Damo 2,970]

I think the Casey game was a pretty high level for VFL and showed we have quite a few options to choose from. Vanders was one of them. 

[DeeSpencer 23,061]

I don't understand the Fritsch negativity.

I thought he made a couple of nice spoils on switches and his pressure was about as good as it has been. Including putting Hind in to the post.

His work to get in to space on the counter and some of his ball use was good.

He had bad kicking for goal night as did Tom McDonald, as did the whole side really.

I actually think most of the forward struggles from Saturday night were on the midfield lacking any drive. Oliver got going in the 2nd quarter but that was about it. Petracca and Harmes were adjusting to more time forward. Viney was paddling in 2nd gear, away from the contests he provided nothing. 

Our game plan relies on that midfield run taking the space that our forwards spread to leave for them. I don't think if we added the All Australian key forwards they'd matter as much as getting that midfield part right. 

[jnrmac 18,914]

3 hours ago, Fat Tony said:

No change for me with Petracca spending more time forward after the centre bounces.

Viney could potentially need a week off and could be the sub with Jones coming into the 22.

???

He's had 7

[jnrmac 18,914]

Anyone have the stats for our set shot kicking this year?

We would have to be 16th or 17th surely....

[Simon Port 143]

In: Brown

Out: Sparrow

[Jaded No More 57,675]

1 hour ago, Swooper1987 said:

First Crack on Fox Footy last night was talking about Jackson being up to 44% time on ball.  Gawn spent a lot of the last quarter in defence while Jackson took the ruck.  I thought that was interesting (and very successful - Gawn's last quarter was great), but it did leave us short in the forward half.  Macca is a lead up forward.  Fritsch is a hybrid who applies very little defensive pressure.  Brown is also not great defensively but can take a mark and draw a free.  I guess the cost-benefit analysis would be interesting on Brown.  What is his "break even" point?  I think he'd have to kick at least three per game to compensate for the scoring opportunities the opposition gets from his lack of capacity to do the things we value in our forward half.  I don't think it's any surprise that this was one of the main reasons North was prepared to let him go.  And it's probably why Weid got a 5 week run at it.  He's more mobile and can chase and tackle.  If Jackson and Gawn aren't going to change forward all the time, then we need one more tall.  I'm not a fan of either option at the moment.

Had Tomlinson not gone down, perhaps Petty could've been the marking target deep forward.  

3 goals per game is an insane barometer. There are very few if any forwards this year averaging 3 goals per game. 

It's not just about goals kicked. It's about how many long bombs inside 50 end up at ground level for Kossi, ANB or Spargo to mop up, versus how many end up directly in the opposition's hands, that is important with Brown.

If he kicks 1 or 2 goals per game but creates 2 or 3 more, he is doing an important job. The more aerial contests we can half, the more time the ball can spend in our forward 50, the less time we spend defending in the opposition's attack and the more chances we give ourselves to put scoreboard pressure. This is how we want to play, we want to be a forward half team, but when Spargo is at FF because Tmac is rightly playing up the ground and Fritta is leading to the wings, what chance does that give us?

Besides, Ben Brown will always command respect from defenders. It means if Jackson or Gawn drop inside 50, teams will be stretched for height. You leave Brown alone, he will destroy you. So you man him up and that frees other players and stops the constant 2 on 1 we often see in the forward 50.

I think people forget what a good forward Brown is. Now maybe he's past it, or maybe he's barely played in 12 months, had no pre season, and is coming back from a knee operation. But I know that come week 1 of the finals, I rather him at FF than Fritsch. 
He will help us stretch the weaker backlines of the Dogs and Geelong, and help to make Andrews accountable against Brisbane.

We know we are playing finals. Now we need to decide how we want our team to look come finals. 

[Fat Tony 4,370]

48 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

Anyone have the stats for our set shot kicking this year?

We would have to be 16th or 17th surely....

We are 42% from the set shot and 46% from general play. We are slightly below the expected score given the difficulty of our shots.

https://www.statsinsider.com.au/afl/shot-charting

Edited June 28, 2021 by Fat Tony
Sorry data on that site is not up to date. We are currently ranked 10th according to goal/total scores.

[bush demon 1,875]

1 hour ago, Fat Tony said:

Usually we are on the same page 55 but not this time. Fritsch is very frustrating but is also our most productive forward.

Brown's biggest hurdle is that Max is spending around 30% of the game forward at the moment and we can't ever have both Gawn and Brown in the same forward line.

I am also not sure we need another big marking target. Our game plan is very structured for slow ball movement situations and we look to "narrow" the ground by going along the boundary. Because TMac and Jackson are so mobile, they are generally able to cover enough territory to get to the next contest in time if we win the first one. (Watch how often they are in one contest and we take a mark or get a free and then they are the long target the next time.) On the counter attack, Fritsch's mobility is much more valuable than Brown's marking.

Brown/Weideman would get more opportunities if we were willing to use the fat side of the ground, but this is taboo and our strategy would need to change to allow this. The reason we are so cautious is that we are concerned about getting opened up on the counter attack. The defensive running of the midfield and wingers, May and Lever and the cautious way we are moving the ball is why our defence is so strong.

 

We are playing 'lock-down' football precisely because we don't have a B. Brown to chime in with 3-4 goals each other week.

[Deemania since 56 6,122]

On 6/26/2021 at 10:11 PM, Docs Demons said:

Beat me to it HB. Kozzie will become a great player for us but he needs a rocket up his backside real quick. Trying to play Hollywood footy in lieu of team footy. Chocko needs to have a quiet/hard word to him.

Kozzie is becoming predictable to the opposition - still highly skilled, an electric surprise machine, potentially lethal - but could watch the next match to take onboard those 'team footy' fundamentals.

[Neil Crompton 4,676]

2 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

ANB had 31 pressure acts (only Viney for either side had more), 5 tackles (our most), and his opponent was Hind who didn't do much at all.

The vandenBerg love in has got to be toned back. He's not best 22 and he doesn't have the speed, tank or forward nous to replace ANB.

Titan, I think an in-form and fit AVB would be required in our best 22 - for the hardness and pressure he displays and how he brings other players into the game. Despite what you say, he does have a good tank and a good turn of speed and a good football brain. (His disposal has let him down at times in the past, but he certainly wouldn't be the worst in the team in that regard, by any means). I think that Goody, having watched the Casey game live, would have come away absolutely wrapped with what he saw from AVB - and another 2 or 3 weeks of similar or better form, Goody will most likely have him back in the 22. 

Edited June 28, 2021 by Neil Crompton

[Deemania since 56 6,122]

1 hour ago, Damo said:

I think the Casey game was a pretty high level for VFL and showed we have quite a few options to choose from. Vanders was one of them. 

Vanders adds something special ... thud.

[Swooper1987 2,725]

32 minutes ago, Jaded said:

3 goals per game is an insane barometer. There are very few if any forwards this year averaging 3 goals per game. 

It's not just about goals kicked. It's about how many long bombs inside 50 end up at ground level for Kossi, ANB or Spargo to mop up, versus how many end up directly in the opposition's hands, that is important with Brown.

If he kicks 1 or 2 goals per game but creates 2 or 3 more, he is doing an important job. The more aerial contests we can half, the more time the ball can spend in our forward 50, the less time we spend defending in the opposition's attack and the more chances we give ourselves to put scoreboard pressure. This is how we want to play, we want to be a forward half team, but when Spargo is at FF because Tmac is rightly playing up the ground and Fritta is leading to the wings, what chance does that give us?

Besides, Ben Brown will always command respect from defenders. It means if Jackson or Gawn drop inside 50, teams will be stretched for height. You leave Brown alone, he will destroy you. So you man him up and that frees other players and stops the constant 2 on 1 we often see in the forward 50.

I think people forget what a good forward Brown is. Now maybe he's past it, or maybe he's barely played in 12 months, had no pre season, and is coming back from a knee operation. But I know that come week 1 of the finals, I rather him at FF than Fritsch. 
He will help us stretch the weaker backlines of the Dogs and Geelong, and help to make Andrews accountable against Brisbane.

We know we are playing finals. Now we need to decide how we want our team to look come finals. 

The three goals is more a reference point to break even.  He does nothing defensively so I was speculating.  If the oppo score three or four because he doesn't defend (the main reason he was dropped in the first place and the reason why North let him go) then how does he hold his place?  By the way - he kicked more than 60 goals three seasons in a row before last year.  That's three a game average.

If our aim is to split an aerial contest (i.e reduce intercept marks) there are other ways to do that that happen further up the field.  Brown is less likely to get outmarked than a couple of our other forwards but is any use when he doesn't get a mark or free?  All just grist for the mill.

[Jaded No More 57,675]

31 minutes ago, Swooper1987 said:

The three goals is more a reference point to break even.  He does nothing defensively so I was speculating.  If the oppo score three or four because he doesn't defend (the main reason he was dropped in the first place and the reason why North let him go) then how does he hold his place?  By the way - he kicked more than 60 goals three seasons in a row before last year.  That's three a game average.

If our aim is to split an aerial contest (i.e reduce intercept marks) there are other ways to do that that happen further up the field.  Brown is less likely to get outmarked than a couple of our other forwards but is any use when he doesn't get a mark or free?  All just grist for the mill.

I am not sure that he will do less defensively than Fritsch, but I am sure he would  take away a better defender. 

[Swooper1987 2,725]

3 minutes ago, Jaded said:

I am not sure that he will do less defensively than Fritsch, but I am sure he would  take away a better defender. 

He would indeed, but they are different players playing different roles. Let's hope they work it out.

[chook fowler 18,174]

54 minutes ago, Deemania since 56 said:

Vanders adds something special ... thud.

and i suspect GWS don't like getting physical and are easily intimidated.

[old55 21,216]

2 hours ago, Jaded said:

We know we are playing finals. Now we need to decide how we want our team to look come finals. 

Agree and we've effectively got an 9 week finals campaign starting with the R20 clash vs the Dogs (Dogs, Eagles, Crows, Cats, bye, finals) so we've got just 4 weeks to get set.

[binman 37,793]

1 hour ago, chook fowler said:

and i suspect GWS don't like getting physical and are easily intimidated.

Maybe in their early years. Definitely not this year. They have been super hard at it all season.

Of the teams out of the top 4 probably the best contest team this year, and i include the tigers and swans in that assessment. 

Their issue is they have been decimated with injury this season. 

[Garbo 1,324]

Agree with some of the sentiments that Pickett needs to lifted his game or he risks getting dropped. Didn’t even have a tackle on the weekend which is unacceptable for the role he plays.

Not to worried about Fritsch just yet. Noticed on the weekend him and tmac were pushing up the ground extremely high, I think we over compensated for our defence vs pies last week, they really need to hang back a bit more. I’m sure we will find the balance soon just needed a win to settle the nerves. The psychology of getting 12 wins already should be a big weight off for the rest of the year as everything else from now is prepping for finals 

Edited June 28, 2021 by Garbo

[Redleg 37,478]

On 6/27/2021 at 11:56 AM, pineapple dee said:

I said to my son late in the game we needed a contribution from Fritch. I meant something like a goal. But that pressure act on the wing to get the ball over the boundary was almost as good. 

The bummers could have hurt us if Fritch hadn't intervened.

My post was in relation to Kozzie.

[Lord Nev 13,511]

3 hours ago, Neil Crompton said:

(His disposal has let him down at times in the past, but he certainly wouldn't be the worst in the team in that regard, by any means).

In 2020: 5th last for disposal efficiency, 7th for turnovers, 5th for clangers, whilst being 14th for disposals.

He 'lead' us for turnovers/disposals rate at 3.4, and clangers/disposals at 4.3.

So, technically he is the worst.

Edit - Apologies, Melksham was actually our worst for turnovers/disposals at 3.2. vB second.

Edited June 28, 2021 by Lord Nev

[Robbie57 1,990]

Two players caught my attention in the Casey game. Jones and Weed. Jones was a class above and gave it all. He is not going out quietly. Really wants another senior game. Not sure he gets it but the fire is burning in him with a whiff of finals again. 

Now to Weed, I suspect he did most (but not all) of the things the Coaches asked of him. He moved up and down the ground and was defensively good. However he didn't clunk too many marks inside 50 and his kicking was wayward. BB also found it hard to clunk the marks and at least 2 of his goals came off the deck. In contrast he is not as committed defensively.

As a general observation we have some real talent in the twos who are learning our game style and quite a few of them will be banging down the door.

So do Jones and Weed get picked? I think not. Jones may be the emergency again. I suspect Brown will be given a chance but he has to do more to really impress and hold a spot. 

[titan_uranus 22,220]

4 hours ago, Jaded said:

3 goals per game is an insane barometer. There are very few if any forwards this year averaging 3 goals per game. 

Agree.

There are two forwards averaging 3+ goals per game - Walker and Mackay (both 3.1).

4 hours ago, Neil Crompton said:

Titan, I think an in-form and fit AVB would be required in our best 22 - for the hardness and pressure he displays and how he brings other players into the game. Despite what you say, he does have a good tank and a good turn of speed and a good football brain. (His disposal has let him down at times in the past, but he certainly wouldn't be the worst in the team in that regard, by any means). I think that Goody, having watched the Casey game live, would have come away absolutely wrapped with what he saw from AVB - and another 2 or 3 weeks of similar or better form, Goody will most likely have him back in the 22. 

This is the sort of reasoning that is all over Demonland.

We don't lack "hardness" or "pressure". They're our hallmarks.

I think there's a reasonable argument that he would, indeed, be the "worst in the team" in regard to disposals.

In his previous AFL outings he's been a great tackler but that's about it. Last year he was a liability with ball in hand and repeatedly gave away dumb free kicks. We cannot afford that sort of player now that we're a genuine flag contender.

And who does he replace? Don't tell me ANB, Spargo or Pickett, as he's not a forward.

I love vandenBerg's endeavour, willingness to get back after all his injuries, and tackling ability, but he's not best 22 and IMO isn't even that close.