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Fixtures - second half of the season


CHF
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We sit at 11-2 with the bye weekend coming up and I had a look at the second half of the season with a clear eye on how we have gone so far this season.

Of course, with Covid there may well be some changes to the fixtures.

Round 15 Essendon at the MCG. Away game for us. We have a weekend off and they play this weekend against the Hawks in Tassie. A 85% probability of a win in my opinion.

Round 16 Giants at the MCG. Home game for us. The week before they play the Hawks at home. A 75% probability of a win in my opinion.

Round 17 Port at the Adelaide Oval. Away game for us. The week before they play the Hawks in Melbourne. A 50% probability of a win in my opinion.

Round 18 Hawthorn at the MCG (finally a team that do not play Hawks just before us). Home game for us. The week before they play Freo in Tassie. A 90% probability of a win in my opinion.

Round 19 Suns at Metricon. Away game for us. The week before they play the Bulldogs at Metricon. A 80% probability of a win in my opinion.

Round 20 Bulldogs at the MCG. Home game for us. The week before they play the Crows at Mars Stadium. A 70% probability of a win in my opinion.

Round 21 West Coast at Optus in Perth. Away game for us. The week before they play the Pies at the MCG. A 50% probability of a win in my opinion.

Round 22 Crows at the MCG. Home game for us. The week before they play Port in Adelaide. A 75% probability of a win in my opinion.

Round 23 Cats in Geelong. Away game for us. the week before they play the Saints at home in Geelong An easy couple of weeks for them at home. A 50% probability of a win in my opinion.

So, in the last 9 rounds of the season I give us a better than even chance of winning 6 of the games and a 50/50 chance in the other 3.

Factoring in a disappointing loss against a team we should have beaten and one win from the other 3 that gives us 17 wins for the season and that should be enough to get us into the top 2.

 

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The other key games for the remainder of the year;

ROUND 14

Geelong vs Bulldogs (KP)

ROUND 15

Brisbane vs Geelong (G)

Port vs Sydney (AO)

WCE vs Bulldogs (Perth)

ROUND 16

Sydney vs WCE (SCG)

ROUND 17

Bulldogs vs Sydney (Docklands)

ROUND 18

Richmond vs Brisbane (MCG)

GWS vs Sydney (GS)

ROUND 19

Richmond vs Geelong (MCG)

ROUND 20

GWS vs Port (MO)

ROUND 22

GWS vs Richmond (GS)

ROUND 23

Bulldogs vs Port (Docklands)

Brisbane vs WCE (G)

 

By the way, Cats have their last THREE games in Geelong 😡

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4 hours ago, CHF said:

We sit at 11-2 with the bye weekend coming up and I had a look at the second half of the season with a clear eye on how we have gone so far this season.

Of course, with Covid there may well be some changes to the fixtures.

Round 15 Essendon at the MCG. Away game for us. We have a weekend off and they play this weekend against the Hawks in Tassie. A 85% probability of a win in my opinion.

Round 16 Giants at the MCG. Home game for us. The week before they play the Hawks at home. A 75% probability of a win in my opinion.

Round 17 Port at the Adelaide Oval. Away game for us. The week before they play the Hawks in Melbourne. A 50% probability of a win in my opinion.

Round 18 Hawthorn at the MCG (finally a team that do not play Hawks just before us). Home game for us. The week before they play Freo in Tassie. A 90% probability of a win in my opinion.

Round 19 Suns at Metricon. Away game for us. The week before they play the Bulldogs at Metricon. A 80% probability of a win in my opinion.

Round 20 Bulldogs at the MCG. Home game for us. The week before they play the Crows at Mars Stadium. A 70% probability of a win in my opinion.

Round 21 West Coast at Optus in Perth. Away game for us. The week before they play the Pies at the MCG. A 50% probability of a win in my opinion.

Round 22 Crows at the MCG. Home game for us. The week before they play Port in Adelaide. A 75% probability of a win in my opinion.

Round 23 Cats in Geelong. Away game for us. the week before they play the Saints at home in Geelong An easy couple of weeks for them at home. A 50% probability of a win in my opinion.

So, in the last 9 rounds of the season I give us a better than even chance of winning 6 of the games and a 50/50 chance in the other 3.

Factoring in a disappointing loss against a team we should have beaten and one win from the other 3 that gives us 17 wins for the season and that should be enough to get us into the top 2.

 

Gosh, CHF,........you sure  don’t suffer from MFCSS!
I wish I was 50% confident of wins v WCE over there, at Geelong, and Port  at AO. More like 10% , if you ask me.

I’m very worried about the Essendon game, too.

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4 hours ago, Jumping Jack Clennett said:

Gosh, CHF,........you sure  don’t suffer from MFCSS!
I wish I was 50% confident of wins v WCE over there, at Geelong, and Port  at AO. More like 10% , if you ask me.

I’m very worried about the Essendon game, too.

Nah Jack. All just a matter of opinion and probability. 

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The Essendon game is critical. Coming off a disappointing loss before the bye it's important we get back to winning ways. the bombers are a dangerous opponent. Their youngsters are full of confidence and won't fear playing us. Win and it set's us up for the second half of the season. A loss brings us back to the pack vying for Top 4 and will dent our confidence. That all said, we are better than the Bombers so i expect the win

Giants form has been up and down. Finals chances are slim and wouldn't surprise me if they put the cue in the rack. Win for us.

Port haven't beaten a top 8 team yet. We'll beat them.

Chalk Hawks and Suns down as wins.

Who knows after that what our form and injury profile will look like after that but i reckon we beat the Crows and Doggies and lose to Eagles and Cats.

That gives an 18-4 record, a Top 2 finish and one of the Cats, Doggies or Lions in a qualifying final at the G.

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Geelong in Geelong is under 20% chance of a win. The only way we win this is if Geelong is injured or sewn up a top 2/4 spot they’re happy with and so are resting the old legs. 

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10 hours ago, whatwhat say what said:

i don't know how you factor in those %s of wins

for me there's 1 of possible three results for every match-up; win, lose, or draw

footy is a funny ol' game...

Squiggle and Matter of Stats have a probabilistic methodology with different models (MoS) which might paint a picture.

You are right, it's still W-L, but it's interesting to ponder the probabilities for some confidence.

I think

Ess - L

GWS - W

Port - L

Suns - W

Hawks - W

Dogs - L

WC - L

Crows - W

Cats - L

4-5

Happy to be wrong though, very happy. It's quite possible for us to win Ess, Port, Dogs and go 7-2 though. That would be shocking.

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1 hour ago, Mickey said:

I also think we'll win 6-3, but wouldn't be surprised if we pinch a tough one and lose one we shouldn't.

My thoughts exactly.  Could see us easily dropping the essendon game but then beating West Coast or Geelong at their respected home grounds.

Adelaide,  GWS, GC and Hawthorn are non negotiables. 

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I'm not sure why everyone's so quick to say Port, West Coast, the Dogs and Geelong are going to be likely losses whilst GWS, Hawthorn, GC and Adelaide are likely wins.

We're 5-0 against the top 8 and our best games this year have all been against the best sides in it.

Meanwhile I think it's beyond argument that our worst performances this year have been against poor sides.

I think it's just as likely we drop one of the GWS, Hawthorn, GC and Adelaide games as it is that we sweep them. Similarly, I think we're going to be good chances of winning at least one, and likely more, of Port, West Coast, the Dogs and Geelong.

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24 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

I'm not sure why everyone's so quick to say Port, West Coast, the Dogs and Geelong are going to be likely losses whilst GWS, Hawthorn, GC and Adelaide are likely wins.

 

3 of those games are at the team's respective home grounds. While I completely appreciate our record against top 8 teams, the only side we beat on their home ground was the Dogs, and I wouldn't call Marvel a foreign ground.

We lost to Adelaide in AO, so could very well lost to a much better team in Port there. Playing in Perth is always a very hard task, and I suspect West Coast will be close to full strength by then, and the less said about that dump in Geelong the better.

These are very different propositions to playing a Cameron and Dangerfield-less Geelong at the G, Brisbane in Sydney, Sydney at the G and the Dogs at Marvel. 

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3 hours ago, Jaded said:

3 of those games are at the team's respective home grounds. While I completely appreciate our record against top 8 teams, the only side we beat on their home ground was the Dogs, and I wouldn't call Marvel a foreign ground.

We lost to Adelaide in AO, so could very well lost to a much better team in Port there. Playing in Perth is always a very hard task, and I suspect West Coast will be close to full strength by then, and the less said about that dump in Geelong the better.

These are very different propositions to playing a Cameron and Dangerfield-less Geelong at the G, Brisbane in Sydney, Sydney at the G and the Dogs at Marvel. 

We play at Marvel roughly the same amount of times per year we play at the Adelaide Oval these days.

We beat Richmond at the G, a ground they supposedly dominate at. Our home ground, sure, but theirs too.

West Coast has already lost to Essendon at home. Port's lost twice at home too. Geelong would likely have lost at home to Brisbane in Round 2 had the umpire paid the free kick the rest of the world saw. 

The point remains, though, that we've produced our best football this year against good sides, not bad sides. The 11-2 start does not suggest we're unlikely to win those four games, but because of the loss to Collingwood that's now what everyone seems to think will happen.

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2 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

90% of being 4-5. 

People expecting any more i suppose are expecting us to go from playing our worst footy to playing our best footy over night. 

We beat the Dogs six days after losing to Adelaide.

Remind me, in your recent post categorising our performances this year, how did you describe those two games?

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1 hour ago, titan_uranus said:

We beat the Dogs six days after losing to Adelaide.

Remind me, in your recent post categorising our performances this year, how did you describe those two games?

Good call. but we were worse against the pies than Adelaide I think. 

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1 hour ago, Dr.D said:

90% of being 4-5. 

People expecting any more i suppose are expecting us to go from playing our worst footy to playing our best footy over night. 

We went from playing our worst footy at the time vs Adelaide, to destroying the dogs a week later

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6 hours ago, Superunknown said:

Squiggle and Matter of Stats have a probabilistic methodology with different models (MoS) which might paint a picture.

You are right, it's still W-L, but it's interesting to ponder the probabilities for some confidence.

I think

Ess - L

GWS - W

Port - L

Suns - W

Hawks - W

Dogs - L

WC - L

Crows - W

Cats - L

4-5

Happy to be wrong though, very happy. It's quite possible for us to win Ess, Port, Dogs and go 7-2 though. That would be shocking.

I think this is worst case and has plenty of upside Superunkown.

It would give us 15 wins which I would have grabbed with both hands in March.

The issue now is that we have a right to be dissappointed if we drop games like the Bombers and Port who we are clearly better than.  I think only the cats game is unwinnable.  But if you'e right I'll take it.  At least 15 wins would mean maybe 5th spot and a home Final 1.  Beat Port or Bombers and wer'e 16 wins and 4th spot, probaly 2 home finals at least

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Wins:

  • Bombers
  • GWS
  • Hawks
  • Gold Coast
  • Dogs
  • Crows

Losses:

  • Port (away)
  • WC (away)
  • Cats (away)

Will leave us 17-5 and in the top 2. Obviously we could easily win against Port/WC/Cats, conversely we could easily lose to the six easer games.  On balance and if we keep up the form we have shown in the first 13 games we should finish with 17 wins

The games need to freshen up for sure over the bye and unlike many of our challengers we do not have many injuries to significant players (eg, Butters, Treloar, Shuey etc)

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Maybe if the Footy Gods smile upon us in this second stage of the season and....

Viney returns to the team and plays out the rest of the games.

BBB dies a Tmac and recaptures his old form

There are no more serious injuries

Then a flag looks very promising.

Thats a lot to ride on but we need to find another tall because its not weideman.

Sparrow has showed promise but he is sill a work in progress. Jack v is bound to have a run of fitness and games together.

What a difference Jv and Bbb in fine form would make. Its possible.

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7 hours ago, Jaded said:

3 of those games are at the team's respective home grounds. While I completely appreciate our record against top 8 teams, the only side we beat on their home ground was the Dogs, and I wouldn't call Marvel a foreign ground.

We lost to Adelaide in AO, so could very well lost to a much better team in Port there. Playing in Perth is always a very hard task, and I suspect West Coast will be close to full strength by then, and the less said about that dump in Geelong the better.

These are very different propositions to playing a Cameron and Dangerfield-less Geelong at the G, Brisbane in Sydney, Sydney at the G and the Dogs at Marvel. 

So tired of always having to play at the cattery.

Not only is it always hard to win its a hole for other team supporters.

There are some clubs who always manage to evade the place. 

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4 hours ago, Dr.D said:

90% of being 4-5. 

People expecting any more i suppose are expecting us to go from playing our worst footy to playing our best footy over night. 

I mean you can certainly argue we went from playing our best footy to our worst footy over night (2-0 against top 4 sides, before a lose against a bottom 4 side), so the reverse is fairly easy to comprehend.

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5 hours ago, Dr.D said:

90% of being 4-5. 

People expecting any more i suppose are expecting us to go from playing our worst footy to playing our best footy over night. 

What percentage would you have given us for being 11-2?

 

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