COVID & AFL 2021

[Jaded No More 57,541]

1 hour ago, binman said:

Not wanting to single you out jaded, but is a widely held view that, in my opinion does not hold up to scrutiny. 

The Northern beaches stated with a single transmission and very soon the much vaunted NSW contract tracing team were not able to keep up and lockdown was called for only days after the first case.

By the end of the outbreak 151 cases were linked to the cluster and the lockdown had lasted 3 weeks. This despite it being relatively small population, a population that does not move around greater Sydney much, minimal exposure sites and a contained location with natural boundaries.

And that lockdown happened over the XMAS period so businesses were smashed and families separated. 

As anyone who knows that part of Sydney, the NSW government was extremely lucky the outbreak was in the Northern beaches, not say the west of Sydney (which is geographically very similar to Melbourne). Our equivalent might have been an out break on the Morning Peninsula, which could be isolated in a matter of hours if needed. 

Our current outbreak (which largely came from leak from a SA hotel) is almost exactly the same in number, yet we are out of lockdown in two weeks. And we have huge population, hundreds of exposure sites, a highly transient population in terms of movement around the city and basically no natural boundaries.

Really, by any measure Victoria's contract tracing and related responses (eg exposure sites) has been extraordinary in this current outbreak. 

It is worth noting that we had the Black Rock cluster that was related the Northern beaches outbreak and we only had a brief lockdown. WA had a lockdown as did SA, after very low numbers. The one in WA cost the dockers and eagles millions. 

People made fun of the restrictions SA put on the pies and cats going into their state, were amazed at the hard lock down WA applied, shocked in the hard line Qld have taken this time to travel from Victoria etc et. That is all examples of very risk averse state governments 

The NZ government has had a couple of snap lockdowns after very low numbers

And the bleating from the Liberal party in Victoria is completely hollow, becuase they would have made exactly the same decision to lockdown if in government. 

The problem is that as a country we have decided to implement an elimination strategy. Not a suppression strategy, an elimination strategy. I'm amazed Andrews and co have not pointed this out previously, but finally Sutton did so on Tuesday

As Sutton said, we can't 'grumble along with one or two cases a day' and live the life we have been living (full pubs, everyone back in the office, 50k at the footy, packed trains. Because the numbers would eventually explode. As they have in Taiwan, a country that is also taking an elimination strategy.

In that scenario eventually restrictions have to come into place that as Bing points out has been a feature of much of the world whilst we go about our covid free lives.

There is not one example in the world of a country that has been able to effectively implement a suppression strategy. We have called our strategy suppression but that is bollocks. Arguably there is no such thing as it eventually gets away from health authorities.  The only two real strategies are elimination or stem the tide/minimise the impact. 

Even if they are not pure lockdown like we had last year (which in an case lots of countries have had of course), if there are enough restrictions it doesn't look much different. 

We can't have our cake and eat it too. Enjoy the benefits of no covid in our community and put up with the risk of lockdowns. Or accept living with covid and risk not living covid free (eg masks everywhere, all the time, no live sport etc etc).

We have collectively chosen the former. And so have to accept lockdown are likely to occur.

Of course the big problem is that it is dead obvious that a key plank of the elimination strategy should have been a war time like focus on national vaccination program with a super ambitious goal to say to vaccinate 80% of the population by Easter, or 1 July 2021 or some such. Call a national holiday to celebrate, once achieved.

Which of course would have been hard, but not having covid in the community and all the testing infrastructure in place gave us a huge opportunity other countries haven't.

Yesterday Seattle became the first major city in America to fully vaccinate 70% of residents 12 and up against COVID-19.

Fully vaccinate - so two shots for everyone over the age of 12. Seattle is not much smaller than Melbourne for Pete's sake!

I'll save my anger for the federal government. 

You make valid points and as I said before, our elimination strategy is great except at all levels of government our only solution to achieve that is to go into lockdowns, even 18 months on. Lockdowns are hugely costly and should not be the go to, when we’ve been yelling about vaccinations and proper quarantine hubs for a year. 
As you said our vaccination roll out has been a joke and we still quarantine people in densely packed CBD hotels. The mind boggles. 
 

Forget Seattle, my family is in Israel and they have been 80% fully vaccinated for months. Population 8 odd million, including some challenging communities of Orthodox Jews and Israeli Arabs. 

Edited June 10, 2021 by Jaded

[binman 37,715]

10 minutes ago, Jaded said:

You make valid points and as I said before, our elimination strategy is great except at all levels of government our only solution to achieve that is to go into lockdowns, even 18 months on. Lockdowns are hugely costly and should not be the go to, when we’ve been yelling about vaccinations and proper quarantine hubs for a year. 
As you said our vaccination roll out has been a joke and we still quarantine people in densely packed CBD hotels. The mind boggles. 
 

Forget Seattle, my family is in Israel and they have been 80% fully vaccinated for months. Population 8 odd million, including some challenging communities of Orthodox Jews and Israeli Arabs. 

Lockdowns are the only option at this point in time.

But only because as you say the vaccination and quarantine programs have been a total joke.

We wouldn't need to Lockdowns at all if they had got those two things right.

And we could have enjoyed all the benefits of a covid free community without the risk of a lockdown.

Every state in the country would have locked down faced with the scenario we faced. 

And likely one will have to by the end of winter.

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,095]

Can anyone get pass this paywall from the HSun?

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=HSWEB_MRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.heraldsun.com.au%2Fsport%2Fafl%2Fnews%2Ffox-footy-posts-historic-afl-ratings-results-powered-by-lockeddown-victorians%2Fnews-story%2Fd99568521baadb0dafdb8c5fcaffaac2&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&offerset=hs_mobile&v21suffix=414-b
 

Article drops a hint about when crowds will return to VIC?

Could it be the dons game, 26 June?

Maybe the GWS game, 3/4 July?

[DemonLad5 1,637]

1 hour ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Can anyone get pass this paywall from the HSun?

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=HSWEB_MRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.heraldsun.com.au%2Fsport%2Fafl%2Fnews%2Ffox-footy-posts-historic-afl-ratings-results-powered-by-lockeddown-victorians%2Fnews-story%2Fd99568521baadb0dafdb8c5fcaffaac2&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&offerset=hs_mobile&v21suffix=414-b
 

Article drops a hint about when crowds will return to VIC?

Could it be the dons game, 26 June?

Maybe the GWS game, 3/4 July?

AFL crowds for Round 14 are expected to start at 50 per cent capacity in Melbourne then take about a month to build to 85 per cent capacity.

The league could have as many as three of its five Round 14 games in Melbourne, including Hawthorn’s home game against Essendon at the MCG.

The league will need to lodge a detailed plan with the Victorian Government’s Public Events Framework to be granted permission for crowds next week.

All of the Round 14 games in Melbourne present varying challenges for the AFL and State Government.

[Pates 9,536]

6 hours ago, binman said:

Lockdowns are the only option at this point in time.

But only because as you say the vaccination and quarantine programs have been a total joke.

We wouldn't need to Lockdowns at all if they had got those two things right.

And we could have enjoyed all the benefits of a covid free community without the risk of a lockdown.

Every state in the country would have locked down faced with the scenario we faced. 

And likely one will have to by the end of winter.

The quarantine hotels have been far from a joke, they’ve been the envy of most of the world. They haven’t been 100% full proof largely because they hotels (particularly in Melbourne I suspect) haven’t been built to act in this capacity. 

Because Australia has been the quarantine capitol of the world it’s meant the vaccination program hasn’t needed to be expedited unlike the UK and US where the virus is so prominent in the community the only way to fight back was to get a successful vaccine program rolled out quickly. Now that people realise a return to proper normal life won’t happen without vaccines the government is (rightfully) copping it for their lethargic approach to promoting vaccinations and also making sure enough doses exist.  

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,095]

8 hours ago, DemonLad5 said:

AFL crowds for Round 14 are expected to start at 50 per cent capacity in Melbourne then take about a month to build to 85 per cent capacity.

The league could have as many as three of its five Round 14 games in Melbourne, including Hawthorn’s home game against Essendon at the MCG.

The league will need to lodge a detailed plan with the Victorian Government’s Public Events Framework to be granted permission for crowds next week.

All of the Round 14 games in Melbourne present varying challenges for the AFL and State Government.

Thanks for posting the article DL5.

That's a promising development in terms of having crowds for the Essendon and GWS games at the G.

Zero cases today will only help this development.

[binman 37,715]

8 hours ago, Pates said:

The quarantine hotels have been far from a joke, they’ve been the envy of most of the world. They haven’t been 100% full proof largely because they hotels (particularly in Melbourne I suspect) haven’t been built to act in this capacity. 

Because Australia has been the quarantine capitol of the world it’s meant the vaccination program hasn’t needed to be expedited unlike the UK and US where the virus is so prominent in the community the only way to fight back was to get a successful vaccine program rolled out quickly. Now that people realise a return to proper normal life won’t happen without vaccines the government is (rightfully) copping it for their lethargic approach to promoting vaccinations and also making sure enough doses exist.  

The first lockdown in Melbourne was related to a pretty big stuff up in the hotels, but you are  right the quarantine hotel programs around the country have been amazing in terms of the statistically very small numbers of cases that have escaped. Particularly given how ill suited the buildings are for the job. 

That said it is concerning there are no national standards yet and it seems insane how long it took governments to take aerosol transmission seriously. 

I should have been clearer. I meant the overall quarantine program strategy, which is the responsibility of the federal government, has been a joke, not the individual programs.

Again it is related to choosing to go down the suppression/elimination road.  Once the feds, with the full support of every state government (and the majority of Australians i suspect) decided elimination was the strategy then using hotel quarantine as the key plank of the quarantine strategy was clearly a bad decsion.

The problem is, is hat as you say it is impossible for the hotels to be 100% full proof. The are not fit for purpose.

Which would be fine if we had not decided on an suppression/elimination strategy.

If we had decided on say a containment strategy (like the UK, the states and pretty much all of Europe) that focused on stopping the numbers overwhelming health systems, there would always be community transmission and cases circulating in the population. So the occasional leak from a hotel would be of little consequence. 

But in a zero covid environment where there are no cases and no community transmission even one case that escapes a hotel can have disastrous consequences.  Pretty much every lockdown that ash occurred in Australia has been related to breaches from hotels.

Think of the economic impact of even a 3 day lockdown, let alone a 2 week or six months one. Lockdowns have cost the Australian economy hundreds of billions of dollars. 

It was evident from the very beginning Howard Springs type facilities they have belatedly agreed to start building were what was required given the decision to go down the suppression/elimination road. Perhaps not as the only option, but certainly the major one.   

And the feds should have taken control of that process. Leaving aside the fact quarantine is their responsibility, they have access to crown land, army engineers and enough resources.

If they had got on their bike in April last year, and ensured purpose built facilities were built in every state they would have been completed by end of 2021. And whilst there would likely to have still been some leakage, each lockdown prevented would pay for their construction 10 times over.

We would also be in a much better position to bring Australians home and increase international travel.

I have no doubt the decision to not did not take responsibility and leadership an implement an effective  federal quarantine strategy was in large part driven by wanting to shift and risk and blame to the states. 

[The heart beats true 16,003]

16 hours ago, binman said:

Lockdowns are the only option at this point in time.

But only because as you say the vaccination and quarantine programs have been a total joke.

We wouldn't need to Lockdowns at all if they had got those two things right.

Yep, I’m 43. Have been told for 2 weeks I can get vaccinated. Made an appointment 9 days ago for this morning. Fronted up today at Prahran Town Hall to be told (like 90% of people there because of the age demographics) that they don’t have any Pfizer, and they don’t know when they’ll get it, and we’ll all have to go home - and hope that when we make our next appointment they might have it then, but they probably won’t.

Yet somehow all the politicians seem obsessed with the idea that we need to incentivise people to get vaccinated. How about we just get it right the first time? I can guarantee you that 90% of the thousands turned away today won’t make another appointment now - we all took time off work to do our bit.

Meanwhile friends and family in the US and UK have been fully vaccinated for months. The vaccine program has been stuffed up royally - and it’s only the most important public health program of the last 100 years.

[Superunknown 3,307]

23 hours ago, Wrecker46 said:

I just watched today's press conference. They don't know what variant the latest 4 cases have but will continue to ease the restrictions (good). A week ago the Delta strain was so bad they had to extend the 7 day circuit breaker.

These clowns just make it up as they go along.

 

Probably as they have no option but to respond to the facts as they come in

[Superunknown 3,307]

1 hour ago, binman said:

The first lockdown in Melbourne was related to a pretty big stuff up in the hotels, but you are  right the quarantine hotel programs around the country have been amazing in terms of the statistically very small numbers of cases that have escaped. Particularly given how ill suited the buildings are for the job. 

That said it is concerning there are no national standards yet and it seems insane how long it took governments to take aerosol transmission seriously. 

I should have been clearer. I meant the overall quarantine program strategy, which is the responsibility of the federal government, has been a joke, not the individual programs.

Again it is related to choosing to go down the suppression/elimination road.  Once the feds, with the full support of every state government (and the majority of Australians i suspect) decided elimination was the strategy then using hotel quarantine as the key plank of the quarantine strategy was clearly a bad decsion.

The problem is, is hat as you say it is impossible for the hotels to be 100% full proof. The are not fit for purpose.

Which would be fine if we had not decided on an suppression/elimination strategy.

If we had decided on say a containment strategy (like the UK, the states and pretty much all of Europe) that focused on stopping the numbers overwhelming health systems, there would always be community transmission and cases circulating in the population. So the occasional leak from a hotel would be of little consequence. 

But in a zero covid environment where there are no cases and no community transmission even one case that escapes a hotel can have disastrous consequences.  Pretty much every lockdown that ash occurred in Australia has been related to breaches from hotels.

Think of the economic impact of even a 3 day lockdown, let alone a 2 week or six months one. Lockdowns have cost the Australian economy hundreds of billions of dollars. 

It was evident from the very beginning Howard Springs type facilities they have belatedly agreed to start building were what was required given the decision to go down the suppression/elimination road. Perhaps not as the only option, but certainly the major one.   

And the feds should have taken control of that process. Leaving aside the fact quarantine is their responsibility, they have access to crown land, army engineers and enough resources.

If they had got on their bike in April last year, and ensured purpose built facilities were built in every state they would have been completed by end of 2021. And whilst there would likely to have still been some leakage, each lockdown prevented would pay for their construction 10 times over.

We would also be in a much better position to bring Australians home and increase international travel.

I have no doubt the decision to not did not take responsibility and leadership an implement an effective  federal quarantine strategy was in large part driven by wanting to shift and risk and blame to the states. 

So what you’re saying - I think - is the UK/US “containment” approach which led to a lot of deaths - is preferred?

[Demonland 64,361]

 

[old dee 22,799]

16 minutes ago, Demonland said:

 

It is difficult to believe we will go 3 months without another out break. While overseas repatriation continues past experience has shown us another breakout is only weeks away.  I can see the Dees having to break the drought in Sydney. 

[binman 37,715]

32 minutes ago, Superunknown said:

So what you’re saying - I think - is the UK/US “containment” approach which led to a lot of deaths - is preferred?

No, that is not what I even remotely saying. Or suggesting. Or implying. 

I'm very confused how you could have possibly arrived at that conclusion. 

[Wrecker46 2,650]

On 6/9/2021 at 7:05 PM, Dr. Gonzo said:

I don't think they are really worried about the teachers - it's all the parents mingling/hanging around during drop off/pick up time especially primary schools.

They should put a restriction on active wear at school drop offs. Would be more effective than face masks.

[Diamond_Jim 11,670]

when we all look back at these border restrictions and wonder how we got to such a situation I wonder what will stand out as the silliest.

Seems to me that that the SA response to visiting footballers is way up there as a single instance. Mind you the masks while driving which I think was WA was also close.

I'm fast giving up on any form of reason or nuance being used in this area.

[jules7 684]

4 minutes ago, Wrecker46 said:

They should put a restriction on active wear at school drop offs. Would be more effective than face masks.

Awesome response!

[Diamond_Jim 11,670]

18 minutes ago, old dee said:

It is difficult to believe we will go 3 months without another out break. While overseas repatriation continues past experience has shown us another breakout is only weeks away.  I can see the Dees having to break the drought in Sydney. 

It will as usual be a cynical bidding war between the various States. Not sure Sydney has the stadium size to make it worth their while (IIRC they're upgrading Homebush).

On a closer note I wonder of Geelong will make a money bid to "steal"the Bulldogs home game and take it down to Kardiinia Park.

Docklands at 50% is barely break even.

[BDA 19,978]

Covid is now endemic in the global population. Our only hope is to vaccinate, achieve herd immunity open our borders and get on with our lives.

I've been upset with the Vic govt over hotel quarantine and the Feds for the vaccine non roll-out but the reality is, thus far, we've done very well by international standards. It's been a weird year and unprecedented circumstances so i'm going to cut them some slack. Best thing we can all do is encourage people to do the right thing and get vaccinated. 

[old dee 22,799]

2 minutes ago, Better days ahead said:

Covid is now endemic in the global population. Our only hope is to vaccinate, achieve herd immunity open our borders and get on with our lives.

I've been upset with the Vic govt over hotel quarantine and the Feds for the vaccine non roll-out but the reality is, thus far, we've done very well by international standards. It's been a weird year and unprecedented circumstances so i'm going to cut them some slack. Best thing we can all do is encourage people to do the right thing and get vaccinated. 

Could not agree more but with a death yesterday after the vaccination that is going to be had work until we can offer more than the astra vaccine.

[Wrecker46 2,650]

19 hours ago, binman said:

Not wanting to single you out jaded, but is a widely held view that, in my opinion does not hold up to scrutiny. 

The Northern beaches stated with a single transmission and very soon the much vaunted NSW contract tracing team were not able to keep up and lockdown was called for only days after the first case.

By the end of the outbreak 151 cases were linked to the cluster and the lockdown had lasted 3 weeks. This despite it being relatively small population, a population that does not move around greater Sydney much, minimal exposure sites and a contained location with natural boundaries.

And that lockdown happened over the XMAS period so businesses were smashed and families separated. 

As anyone who knows that part of Sydney, the NSW government was extremely lucky the outbreak was in the Northern beaches, not say the west of Sydney (which is geographically very similar to Melbourne). Our equivalent might have been an out break on the Morning Peninsula, which could be isolated in a matter of hours if needed. 

Our current outbreak (which largely came from leak from a SA hotel) is almost exactly the same in number, yet we are out of lockdown in two weeks. And we have huge population, hundreds of exposure sites, a highly transient population in terms of movement around the city and basically no natural boundaries.

Really, by any measure Victoria's contract tracing and related responses (eg exposure sites) has been extraordinary in this current outbreak. 

It is worth noting that we had the Black Rock cluster that was related the Northern beaches outbreak and we only had a brief lockdown. WA had a lockdown as did SA, after very low numbers. The one in WA cost the dockers and eagles millions. 

People made fun of the restrictions SA put on the pies and cats going into their state, were amazed at the hard lock down WA applied, shocked in the hard line Qld have taken this time to travel from Victoria etc et. That is all examples of very risk averse state governments 

The NZ government has had a couple of snap lockdowns after very low numbers

And the bleating from the Liberal party in Victoria is completely hollow, becuase they would have made exactly the same decision to lockdown if in government. 

The problem is that as a country we have decided to implement an elimination strategy. Not a suppression strategy, an elimination strategy. I'm amazed Andrews and co have not pointed this out previously, but finally Sutton did so on Tuesday

As Sutton said, we can't 'grumble along with one or two cases a day' and live the life we have been living (full pubs, everyone back in the office, 50k at the footy, packed trains. Because the numbers would eventually explode. As they have in Taiwan, a country that is also taking an elimination strategy.

In that scenario eventually restrictions have to come into place that as Bing points out has been a feature of much of the world whilst we go about our covid free lives.

There is not one example in the world of a country that has been able to effectively implement a suppression strategy. We have called our strategy suppression but that is bollocks. Arguably there is no such thing as it eventually gets away from health authorities.  The only two real strategies are elimination or stem the tide/minimise the impact. 

Even if they are not pure lockdown like we had last year (which in an case lots of countries have had of course), if there are enough restrictions it doesn't look much different. 

We can't have our cake and eat it too. Enjoy the benefits of no covid in our community and put up with the risk of lockdowns. Or accept living with covid and risk not living covid free (eg masks everywhere, all the time, no live sport etc etc).

We have collectively chosen the former. And so have to accept lockdown are likely to occur.

Of course the big problem is that it is dead obvious that a key plank of the elimination strategy should have been a war time like focus on national vaccination program with a super ambitious goal to say to vaccinate 80% of the population by Easter, or 1 July 2021 or some such. Call a national holiday to celebrate, once achieved.

Which of course would have been hard, but not having covid in the community and all the testing infrastructure in place gave us a huge opportunity other countries haven't.

Yesterday Seattle became the first major city in America to fully vaccinate 70% of residents 12 and up against COVID-19.

Fully vaccinate - so two shots for everyone over the age of 12. Seattle is not much smaller than Melbourne for Pete's sake!

I'll save my anger for the federal government. 

When you say the NSW government were "lucky" because of the geographical location of the outbreak, you are putting blinkers on.

The NSW government take in the majority of overseas travellers in their quarantine for the rest of the country. Victoria take in a minor share and still keep going into lockdown. There is no luck about it.

Dan Andrews is the first premier / prime minister to go missing since Harold Halt. 3 photos so far. You can't possibly tell me the 2nd photo wasn't photo shopped? Look at the neck.

The ambulance statement didn't even match the dates with Dan's tweets. They also said at the bottom of their unsigned statement that they would not provide further statement. That was in bold. Until they realised they got the date wrong and made a further statement.

 

[binman 37,715]

1 minute ago, Wrecker46 said:

Dan Andrews is the first premier / prime minister to go missing since Harold Halt. 3 photos so far. You can't possibly tell me the 2nd photo wasn't photo shopped? Look at the neck.

The ambulance statement didn't even match the dates with Dan's tweets. They also said at the bottom of their unsigned statement that they would not provide further statement. That was in bold. Until they realised they got the date wrong and made a further statement.

 

Pure comedy gold.

Please tell me this is satire.

[BDA 19,978]

Just now, old dee said:

Could not agree more but with a death yesterday after the vaccination that is going to be had work until we can offer more than the astra vaccine.

Reality is OD we have no idea of the long term effects of any of these vaccines. People have to weight up the risk for themselves but everyone needs to understand that we can't keep our borders closed indefinitely. When we open our borders covid will return for sure

Do people want to be unvaccinated and risk a bad illness, long covid symptoms and other complications or risk the vaccine. I've made my mind up in favor of the vaccine. Yes there are risks but its better than long covid an overseas family member of mine is struggling through. He caught Covid from his wife about 6 months ago, a health worker. Very fatigued he has been unable to work since He has 3 young kids as well. 40 years of age so not old at all.

[The heart beats true 16,003]

43 minutes ago, Wrecker46 said:

They should put a restriction on active wear at school drop offs. Would be more effective than face masks.

That’s comedy gold ?

[old dee 22,799]

23 minutes ago, Better days ahead said:

Reality is OD we have no idea of the long term effects of any of these vaccines. People have to weight up the risk for themselves but everyone needs to understand that we can't keep our borders closed indefinitely. When we open our borders covid will return for sure

Do people want to be unvaccinated and risk a bad illness, long covid symptoms and other complications or risk the vaccine. I've made my mind up in favor of the vaccine. Yes there are risks but its better than long covid an overseas family member of mine is struggling through. He caught Covid from his wife about 6 months ago, a health worker. Very fatigued he has been unable to work since He has 3 young kids as well. 40 years of age so not old at all.

I don’t disagree with you, the after mart never seems to get air time in the media. We need to hear more stores like your rels. I have had  my shot and impatiently waiting for the second. You may have seen my comment before, I have friends who are old like me but are waiting for the Pfizer vaccine. I think sadly  there is a sizeable group like that.  

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,095]

44 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

It will as usual be a cynical bidding war between the various States. Not sure Sydney has the stadium size to make it worth their while (IIRC they're upgrading Homebush).

On a closer note I wonder of Geelong will make a money bid to "steal"the Bulldogs home game and take it down to Kardiinia Park.

Docklands at 50% is barely break even.

Is not that game at Kardinia park/GMHBA anyway?