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How likely a latter season drop off?



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3 hours ago, Pollyanna said:

Squiggle has us finishing first:

https://squiggle.com.au/ladder/

Click on "Melbourne" to see the other models' predictions - they're not expecting a drop-off.

Well that's terrifying. Qualifying final v Geelong at the G, who will no doubt have Cameron already having 100 goals.

Playing one of Brisbane, West Coast, Richmond, Sydney at the G for second chance.

Crikey!

Let's hope Geelong finish 5-8 then get knocked out. Not because we should be especially scared of them but because I really don't like them and it would especially satisfying.

WOE BETIDE *looks for nearest cliff

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Short answer: all things considered it reasonably likely we will drop off at some point, but if we do lets hope it is not at finals time.  Long answer: As is always the case for any contende

Even after being 9-0 in 2016 North were not considered a premiership contender, they were still about 10-1 to win  the flag and about 4th favorite. Most predicted a drop off and weren't surprised when

If I recall, in that run they played all the (as it turned out) bottom teams, then they got some injuries. They more or less ran out of gas. Then they got a flat tire. Their jumpers didn't come back f

3 minutes ago, Superunknown said:

Well that's terrifying. Qualifying final v Geelong at the G, who will no doubt have Cameron already having 100 goals.

Playing one of Brisbane, West Coast, Richmond, Sydney at the G for second chance.

Crikey!

Let's hope Geelong finish 5-8 then get knocked out. Not because we should be especially scared of them but because I really don't like them and it would especially satisfying.

WOE BETIDE *looks for nearest cliff

https://live.squiggle.com.au/ - click on Forecast at the top

Squiggle currently has us beating Port in the Qualifying final, Geelong by a point in the Prelim and losing to the Dogs by 3pts in the GF.

 

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The more likely scenario is we go undefeated the entire year and Covid strikes and the season is cancelled before to the grand final #MFCSS

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6 hours ago, Webber said:

Was just reading Titus O’Reily’s Round 8 wrap, and a poster in the comments was recalling North Melbourne’s start to 2016. They went 9-0, top of the ladder, but won only 3 more games to September, finished 8th and were eliminated straight up. Didn’t remember that, and now wish I hadn’t been reminded. Form and wins are fickle. How likely for the Dees? 

In fairness, outside of the Richmond game which we were strong across all lines and phases of the be game I don't think we've really hit our straps.

The last couple of weeks we've been smashed in clearance, and in other rounds we've played 2+ quarters of ordinary football with 1 quarter of dominance against middle of the road teams.

I think we have a strong enough system, talent and fitness across all lines to jag wins even when we aren't playing great football, which barring significant injuries, should see us win more than we lose for the remaining rounds.

This week if we tighten up around the centre bounces you'd think we beat Carlton, but get smashed in this area again and if we struggle in one or more of contested ball, forward 50 entry, or defensive pressure, and if Carlton bring their A game then we will lose.

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Fat Tony said:

I think we were beating them by a point last week.

I think that was 2 weeks ago pre-North, after that he's had us losing the GF.  Squiggle really like good teams dishing out annihilations.

Edited by Pollyanna
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Posted (edited)

I don't really see a drop off happening, in saying that i think it'd probably do us some good to drop a game. i reckon the players might have the streak in their heads a bit and will play with more freedom if that's not a factor 

Edited by Patches O’houlihan
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8 minutes ago, Patches O’houlihan said:

I reckon the players might have the steak in their heads

Are you calling our players meatheads?  Come here and say that!

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More than likely we will have a few off days.  Even top sides who go on to win premierships have ugly losses in the H and A.

If we can sure up a top 4 spot it will be a good idea to rest some players (Max) and rotate some of the young players.

Managing the list will be key.

 

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If you go back over the last decade most years a team starts 10-1 give or take a game and there after goes 50/50. In almost every instance that team still finished 1st or 2nd. We have already committed to the fast start no point trying to change it up now or even worrying about it, just ride this wave as far as it goes and reassess when things turn. Until we have our spot locked up wherever that is I hope the club just takes one week at a time and doesn’t fall into the trap of saving them self for the next weeks game, that’s what cost us up in Caines last season.

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We’ve arguably struck our best vein of form that any of us can remember yet some are too busy looking for the first signs of the beginning of the end to enjoy it. Smell the roses while you can people. 

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7 hours ago, hardtack said:

Melbourne went 8-0 in 1965 and still missed out on finals.

Irrelevant

We had fallen in under a goal in about 5 Winning games and were at the end of a run that started in 1964. Plus we had Smithy and the Cttee at war. 

The personnel while in name were the same were tired and no such 7/8 AA players and 10/12 B+ footballers.

History  proved that We never recovered with retirements and drop offs after 1965 and of course had lost the greatest modern footballer RDB who covered a multitude of deficiencies as he commenced in carving as successful coaching career as playing at Carlton. 
 

Some of the stats from Sat night re centre clearances and inside 50's May not be sustainable Every week Against all opposition but many players had their Uncharacteristically worst games for the season and we were saved by our Twin Towers Tmac and BBB and IMO again  by our defence and The wonderful competitive ability of Clarry to get his amazing hands on the ball  first and kick, handball, scrap and shovel it Forward any how in our direction. 
 

He refused to yield and any one who says we could do without him as the first mid with hands on the ball is either blind or does not Understand inside competitive football today.

I expect a big lift in many players this week as the Blues are dangerous with the ball in hand moving forward. Not so defending ground and space which should enable us to control the game. 

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1 hour ago, Garbo said:

If you go back over the last decade most years a team starts 10-1 give or take a game and there after goes 50/50. In almost every instance that team still finished 1st or 2nd. We have already committed to the fast start no point trying to change it up now or even worrying about it, just ride this wave as far as it goes and reassess when things turn. Until we have our spot locked up wherever that is I hope the club just takes one week at a time and doesn’t fall into the trap of saving them self for the next weeks game, that’s what cost us up in Caines last season.

Interesting take on Cairns  Garbo. If only it was that simple.

Poor selection fro the conditions inability to handle wind and rain plus sheer lack of skills and yes a schedule that we didn't adapt ( like WC Eagles) to of flying in and travelling hours prior to the first game.

Don't think any one left it to The next week we just were not tuned in or ready for such games In those conditions with such a dreadful skill level and average game plan also. 

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I try not to think too far ahead but having said that we have a tricky run home. Bulldogs at MCG, then WC in Perth, Adelaide at home, and Geelong at KP. Adelaide is the only one you’d bank as a likely win and it’s sandwiched in a tough run. We have to really do what we can to be cherry ripe for this run hone to have momentum into finals. 2018 showed how important that is. 

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To me, the biggest player loss would be Langdon. He is a key to  making the backlines efforts to get the ball out effective and to create a bit of  Opposition panic in getting the ball into our forward zone.

I don't know how we would replace him effectively if he were to be injured. I believe there would be a significant drop off in defence effectiveness and forward delivery.

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, hardtack said:

Melbourne went 8-0 in 1965 and still missed out on finals.

Melbourne went 8-0 in 1955 and 1956 and went back to back

Focus on the positives

Edited by Dr. Gonzo
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On 5/11/2021 at 5:25 PM, 58er said:

Interesting take on Cairns  Garbo. If only it was that simple.

Poor selection fro the conditions inability to handle wind and rain plus sheer lack of skills and yes a schedule that we didn't adapt ( like WC Eagles) to of flying in and travelling hours prior to the first game.

Don't think any one left it to The next week we just were not tuned in or ready for such games In those conditions with such a dreadful skill level and average game plan also. 

Heard Gawn say much in an interview this year that the team got ahead of them self leading into those games and didn’t treat them with the respect they deserved, might be a bit of revisionism on his part but still interesting that’s how they see it now.

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Ever since 2017, the glaring risk for Melbourne has been the lack of an option if Gawn goes down injured. We cobbled together a response that year, but it arguably cost us a finals spot. In four seasons since, we still have not got a ruckman who can step up and do the job if Gawn gets a long-term injury. Jackson is too young to take this role on long-term, and who else is there? We would end up robbing the forward line Peter to pay the midfield Paul, again.

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21 minutes ago, GonetoCA said:

Ever since 2017, the glaring risk for Melbourne has been the lack of an option if Gawn goes down injured. We cobbled together a response that year, but it arguably cost us a finals spot. In four seasons since, we still have not got a ruckman who can step up and do the job if Gawn gets a long-term injury. Jackson is too young to take this role on long-term, and who else is there? We would end up robbing the forward line Peter to pay the midfield Paul, again.

I'm confused. What's your point?

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On 5/11/2021 at 11:25 AM, binman said:

Short answer: all things considered it reasonably likely we will drop off at some point, but if we do lets hope it is not at finals time. 

Long answer:

As is always the case for any contender, much will depend on injury. And luck (eg who gets injured, when they get injured, opposition issues) 

We have had an ok run with injuries thus far (though that should not be overstated - we have lost thommo, our two first pick forwards were unavailable until recently, our small defender back up has been out, we lost a very handy defensive back up in Hore for the season, Viney is out for a bit).

But we can expect some more.

Our game plan has pressure as its absolute foundation. It is a very taxing style to play for a full season. Physically and mentally. It is likely intensity will drop in some games and we will lose a handful of them. 

So I think we will definitely dip a bit. Which is no bad thing. Gone are the days of teams going through seasons undefeated (how insane does that sound in reference to a discussion about the dees!)

The key is to replicate what the Tigers have been so brilliant at:  banking enough wins to make top 4, not being overly fussed if they are scratchy wins and peaking at finals time.

As Hardwick and Goody have noted (perhaps taking a cue from the NFL) there are two seasons: 

Home and Away. And Finals.

Get through the first in good shape and with a strong ladder position. Peak in the second 

Our system and game plan is robust and I am super confident it will stand up in finals. And our list is in the perfect stage of its development.

Make no mistake we are legitimate contenders for the flag this year, as evidenced by the fact we are currently EQUAL FAVOURITES (with the Dogs, Tigers and Port - all $5.50) for the flag with the bookies.

I hope they go all chips in in the next two games (was four games when i made this comment previously, so we have the first two pieces of the puzzle) and do all they can to win the them both. That includes picking the very best side they can. And not resting players unless really necessary.

If we go 10 zip we are a top four lock as 15 win gets us top four, meaning we 'only' need to win half of our remaining games. 

Do that and we can plan around the bye to rest players. So rest players between rounds 11 and say 15.

That includes possibly not having our best team against the dogs, port and/or lions.

All three games are not as important at they might have been without our brilliant start to the season. If we happen to lose any, those clubs will know we were not at full strength. And dees fans we will be the ones who can smugly say premierships are not won in July. 

Give Gawn a chop out, manage Tracc and Oliver for a game or two, perhaps Jackson, Rivers and Jordan too (but not not kozzie - he would hate it too much!).

Get some experienced players like Jones and maybe Jetts in for the tough mid winter games. And give the Bowey, Swallows, Chandlers and Bedfords, maybe even Rosman and of course Weed their shots.

Fresh, motivated players will bring an energy just when we  need it. And actually might help us win some games we might otherwise lose. 

Our flying  start has created this opportunity. But we need to win to next two to get get full value from it. 

 

 

If we were to rest players, would it make sense to rest them for long interstate trips 

R12   v  Brisbane     traeger park  nt

R19  v  gold Coast   metricon  qld

R21  v  West Coast   optus  wa

Big game against the blue baggers this week 

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On 11/05/2021 at 9:25 PM, Dr. Gonzo said:

Melbourne went 8-0 in 1955 and 1956 and went back to back

Focus on the positives

Melbourne went 0-3 in the last home and homes in '57 and thence completed the threepeat. The last cupplar games are a sideshow if wins have been banked and players managed for the finals denouement.

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