Jump to content

  • Podcast:      

  • Podcast:      

How likely a latter season drop off?



Recommended Posts

Was just reading Titus O’Reily’s Round 8 wrap, and a poster in the comments was recalling North Melbourne’s start to 2016. They went 9-0, top of the ladder, but won only 3 more games to September, finished 8th and were eliminated straight up. Didn’t remember that, and now wish I hadn’t been reminded. Form and wins are fickle. How likely for the Dees? 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites


Posted (edited)

I’m as worried as anyone when it comes to a drop-off happening, but the difference is that north’s list back then was old and bog-average. Provided we don’t cop too many injuries we should be fine, but this is Melbourne we’re talking about so you never know.

Edited by nacnud
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)

If I recall, in that run they played all the (as it turned out) bottom teams, then they got some injuries. They more or less ran out of gas. Then they got a flat tire. Their jumpers didn't come back from the cleaners. An old friend came in from out of town. Someone stole their car. There was an earthquake. A terrible flood. Locusts. It wasn't their fault!

Edited by Mazer Rackham
  • Like 2
  • Haha 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

While we have a healthy list and competition for spots in the team we will NOT falter . The passion is there and confidence is building . So proud of the MFC and what they stand for . Go Dees !

Can not remember what happened to NM in 2016 and don't care . Maybe like our year in 1965 ?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Burgess means it won't be for fitness, if properly managed through the season.

Barring some catastrophic run of injuries*, or a deep psychological malaise, I think it unlikely.

Creampuffs, we no longer be.

 

*I disclaim any responsibility if this actually happens as a consequence of committing that sentence to pixels.

  • Like 2
  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, faultydet said:

We don't have great midfield depth.

A couple of injuries to key players and we are right back in the pack.

I was howled down for saying the same.

With Jvs foot issue it makes me nervous.

Harmes was good and I hope gets better with each game.

Jordon has been a huge bonus and here to stay.

But who else is there aside from Sparrow?

So much luck is involved with injuries.

Heres hoping we get heaps of it. Luck that is.

Edited by leave it to deever
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think the signs are we won’t have a drop off

  • Great defensive set-up and system
  • We’ve overcome challenges in pretty much every game
  • We aren't actually playing particularly well. I reckon we have another gear to go.
  • Not overly reliant on key players. If the oppo shut down one another player can step up
  • Great depth to cover injuries
  • We are fit. Very good fourth quarter team

Injuries can derail any team but that aside I don’t believe we will fall away

  • Like 4
  • Love 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

They were an old side with little or no improvement left  in them during the season. They got injuries, other younger sides went past them and then they lost the magical ingredient ... confidence. 

Its good to remember what happened to them though I think. Things can go south very quickly for reasons that would have been hard, if not impossible,   for them to foresee at 9-0. We don’t yet know what challenges we’re going to be thrown or what our ability to adapt to them will be. But we’ve started well and history is ours to write now. I just pray it’s good reading and  not another depressing chapter! 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I expect a few loses along the way but barring injuries to key players we'll be right in it toward the pointy end.
There will be no easy games though, just about every club out there will come out firing thinking they could take us down with pressure.
Hell, they've been doing it for years.
Essendon especially.
Hate them forkers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, faultydet said:

We don't have great midfield depth.

A couple of injuries to key players and we are right back in the pack.

All clubs are in this situation; you can’t cover your best players. I doubt Richmond’s 25th best player is that much better than our 25th best, and he sure as hell doesn’t hold a candle to Dusty or Petracca. All you can do is hope you never have to find out how big the gap is.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, In Harmes Way said:

According to the Matter of Stats website, more than 50,000 simulations suggest we're likely to finish top 4. 

http://www.matterofstats.com/mafl-simulations/2021-simulating-the-final-ladder-after-round-8

Squiggle has us finishing first:

https://squiggle.com.au/ladder/

Click on "Melbourne" to see the other models' predictions - they're not expecting a drop-off.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Melbourne went 8-0 in 1965 and still missed out on finals.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

54 minutes ago, faultydet said:

We don't have great midfield depth.

A couple of injuries to key players and we are right back in the pack.

We have very good midfield depth. 
Oliver | Trac | Jordan | Harmes | Brayshaw | Jones | Sparrow | Pickett | Viney | Baker | Langdon 

granted some aren’t A graders but there is coverage there.  

I think Melksham could also play midfield if required as could someone like Chandler. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Obviously we need to maintain good health to be a shot, but there are also reasons to be optimistic.

We are winning convincingly every week and only running in second gear. And there is still plenty of improvement in our game. For example:

  • Petracca starts hitting more targets by foot and kicking straight.
  • Oliver starts kicking straight.
  • Gawn starts kicking straight.
  • We manage to win the centre clearances.
  • Viney comes back and makes the opposition cry.
  • Petty finds his feet.
  • Jackson goes from talented youngster to super star.
  • Kossie gets stronger and learns how to take a mark.
  • Ben Brown gets more mobility back.
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Even after being 9-0 in 2016 North were not considered a premiership contender, they were still about 10-1 to win  the flag and about 4th favorite. Most predicted a drop off and weren't surprised when it came.

Our aim is to finish top 4. So we have to beat the teams around us. Having wins against Richmond, Geelong and Swans are important. Last Saturday nights win was super important. If Swans won its 28 points to us and 24 points to them and they can replace us in the top 4 at some stage. Having won and now being 12 points ahead of the Swans gives us a chance to hold them off in the run home.

A problem for us though is our inability to get an easy win. A kill. Most good teams of the last 20 years had the ability to kill off the contest quickly and then could cruise through a few games. All our games the opposition were well in the game and in many cases ahead. It's good that we found a way to win but we looked cooked in the 4th quarter on Saturday night. The next part of our maturity as a football side is learning how to dominate. If we can't start putting games to bed earlier, we will almost certainly tire and drop off.

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

In 2016, North had the oldest list (by some margin) and also only played 2 teams who finished top 8 in the first 9 rounds, and 5 of those wins were within 16 points. Arguably we've already played at least 3 teams who will definitely finish top 8, also having played the teams currently sitting 9, 10 & 11 on the ladder, with only the Swans game coming within 2 goals. So we haven't had to fight out the wins as much.

Having said that, and I mentioned in the changes thread, we should be giving some consideration to managing some of the younger guys to keep them fresh. Jordan, Pickett, Rivers and Jackson are all under 21and have played only 8, 22, 17 & 14 games each. They are all important to our set up, and also I think we need to have that squad mentality where we've got 28 - 32 players ready to go at AFL standard. Having this means there's less likely to be a major drop off, even though we will drop games during the year. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Webber said:

Was just reading Titus O’Reily’s Round 8 wrap, and a poster in the comments was recalling North Melbourne’s start to 2016. They went 9-0, top of the ladder, but won only 3 more games to September, finished 8th and were eliminated straight up. Didn’t remember that, and now wish I hadn’t been reminded. Form and wins are fickle. How likely for the Dees? 

I remember the North team well. They were full of experienced players who got the job done on some pretty weak teams in those first 9 rounds. You were just waiting for them to get found out. They had nothing of the defensive system that we have.

Provided we continue bringing the work rate, our system will win finals. It's nothing like North's. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Last Saturday night we had our struggles, many sides would have lost to The Swans. But we managed to stay in front. 
this MFC Team is building an inner strength. The Coaching an Player Management is crucial from now on. 
Essendrug stayed up for all of 2000 

We just need to concentrate on each new opponent 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Match Previews, Reports & Articles  

    DELTA DEMONS by KC from Casey

    There was an ill wind blowing for the home side at Casey Fields on  Saturday but you wouldn’t have noticed if you turned up seven or eight minutes into the second quarter with the scoreboard showing the Casey Demons holding a lead of 7.5.47 to Footscray’s solitary point. Up to that stage, the depleted Dees combination had taken full advantage of the windy conditions and headed by veterans Nathan Jones, Jimmy Munro and Mitch White had came out of the blocks and plundered the Bulldogs’ defence.  

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Casey Articles

    ON THE FLY by George On The Outer

    After spending most of the previous day in the air, flying between Queensland and Victoria, it was hard to imagine the Demons would be at their best.   But this team was on the fly on the field as well and produced a clinical display which saw them record a 98 point win to put aside any questions about the side being out of form.   Certainly, the Suns who have fallen away badly in the second half of the season were their opponents, but with the Demons looking for a confidence boo

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    CITIUS, ALTIUS, FORTIUS by The Oracle

    This weekend, the Melbourne Football Club was supposed to embark on a tour that started with what looked like an innocent trip to the country’s sunny Gold Coast. However, the Covid19 pandemic intervened to bring them back home for this week at least. Next week, it’s off to the West Coast but conspiracy theorists are already suggesting that this interstate sojourn could take the team all the way across the country over the next month and indeed, there are cynics who even believe that it could bec

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

    THE YEAR THE SNOWFLAKES FELL by Whispering Jack

    The snow that fell on the slopes of Victoria’s mountain districts in the winter of 1965 was not considered good enough to satisfy the enthusiasts. The really heavy snow that season came in two waves further north in July and August. The first descended on the national capital where “Pig Iron Bob” still held sway. Snow flurries touched the landscape all the way across the Blue Mountains. The next big snow extended further north up to the hills around Mackay in Queensland. Snowflakes fell inside t

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Special Features 10

    DEES GIVE DOGS A BONE by George On The Outer

    First place versus second on the ladder promised to be a precursor to what can be expected in the coming finals race.  However, it was the Demons who faltered and gave the Bulldogs a bone to feed their hunger just weeks out from the end of the season. The win also sent the Dogs to the top of the ladder, a position they are unlikely to cede in the coming weeks, given their fixture. While Melbourne may now struggle to keep a spot in the top four with its draw and will likely depend on the res

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    THE WORM WILL TURN by The Oracle

    When I was asked to preview this game, I wasn’t sure whether it was going to be played in Darwin, on the Gold Coast or the MCG. I had no idea as to the identity of Melbourne’s opponent. This would have made for one hell of an interesting match preview so I’m glad that the AFL managed to reorganize its fixture to enable a game … any game at all … to proceed in Round 19. We’ll worry about the Gold Coast Suns or whoever they put us up against when the weekend’s done and dusted and if and when

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

    DRAWN AND DEEFLATED by George on the Outer

    1st v 17th ... it would seem a sure one way contest between the Hawks and the Demons but it was not to be with the game finishing in a draw, the only positive being the Demons still retain their top spot on the ladder. Melbourne was taught a football lesson by Al Clarkson, who with limited resources, just instructed his players to scrap, fight and surge the ball forward.  It stifled the Melbourne free flowing style of play and denied them the opportunities they could normally expect. I

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    PINK RAIN by Whispering Jack

    There is no certainty about life under a pandemic. You wake up one morning without a care in the world; the sun’s shining and it’s a beautiful day. An hour later, everything’s up in the air, the entire state is on high alert and the apartment complex next door’s in lockdown. The simple decision you had to make about buying a ticket to the footy at the weekend suddenly might get put on the back burner. There are other things in life to prioritise and on top of that, they’re predicting rain for th

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

    COR BLIMEY by KC from Casey

    In years to come, the old timers will talk in wonderment about the “Avalon Avalanche” that hit Werribee’s Avalon Airport Oval on a mild winter’s afternoon at about ten minutes after the halfway mark of the game between the local Tigers and their cross town rivals, the Demons from Casey. At that moment in time, the game was poised as if on a knifepoint. Up until the main interval, it had been the visiting team which had maintained the lead from the start but it had struggled to entirely asse

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Casey Articles

    POWER FAILURE by George on the Outer

    South Australians should be well familiar with the damage that storms can do to the power supply.  But Port Power forgot those lessons on Thursday night football as they watched the Melbourne storm descend upon them from across the border and ruin their hopes of a top four placing. Just as equally, the win to the Demons cemented their spot in the top two and sent out the message that a team who had been going around in circles for the past couple of weeks, has in fact, turned into a cyclone

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    CASEY SUFFER FIRST DEFEAT IN TWO YEARS

    The circumstances were a little unusual last Saturday night as KC from Casey was unavailable to report on the Casey Dees due to work commitments. On the ground things were somewhat unusual as well given that, although there was a game to be won on the night, preparations were also being made for the forthcoming Thursday night clash against Port Adelaide with Ben Brown rested for large slabs of the evening. It turned out perhaps, to be a stroke of genius for Melbourne with Brown making a strong c

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Casey Articles

    WEATHERING THE STORM by Mel Rundle

    The magic of Melbourne’s magnificent start to 2021 is beginning to wear off. In its past six matches it lost to three teams that were outside the eight, out of form —  teams which it had very little trouble bearing last year. This week, the temperature is turned up even higher with the hard fought spot in the top four at risk. The really ominous factor about the Demons’ upcoming Thursday night meeting with Port Adelaide this week is that it is due to take place at the very place where its dec

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews


×
×
  • Create New...