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CHANGES: Rd 09 vs Carlton



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17 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

Would rather see Chandler get a run at it for Melk

K'noath!

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5 hours ago, Yokozuna said:

Just had a quick read, and think some people want to make changes for the sake of making changes.

On some of the points,

Gawn is playing more defensive at the moment, helping the back 6 until Petty gets going, or when more cover is required.

melksham IS under pressure and will either be dropped this week or needs a big game to hold his spot.

TMac won’t go to a wing - he is dominating forward, no need to move him from there.

Brayshaw is doing very well, playing his role and is a major reason our defense is so good. He could of course get more touches and for some people be more aggressive, but, don’t get it wrong, a major part of his role is structure.

Not to get people too worried, as it isn’t major, but I have heard that Jackson may be out this weekend and the next with a possible short term injury. If that is the case, the Weed is in to play fwd/ruck. Maybe I should have started with this statement ???

Keeping with winning team and minimal changes is a good way to go. If any players have more than a niggle, like Jackson give them a rest. Hence to state the obvious change this week:

Out: Jackson

In: Weideman 

Also not knowing exactly what coaches are asking each player to do, it can be difficult to know if they have played well or not! After watching the game on the TV last week, Brayshaw seemed to struggle, multiple out on the full kicks, but did he perform his role satisfactorily? Up to the coach!

Similarly Fritsch seemed to have a poor game, but those half forward and pocket roles, it’s hard to play consistently well, week in week out.

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2 hours ago, D4Life said:

Keeping with winning team and minimal changes is a good way to go. If any players have more than a niggle, like Jackson give them a rest. Hence to state the obvious change this week:

Out: Jackson

In: Weideman 

Also not knowing exactly what coaches are asking each player to do, it can be difficult to know if they have played well or not! After watching the game on the TV last week, Brayshaw seemed to struggle, multiple out on the full kicks, but did he perform his role satisfactorily? Up to the coach!

Similarly Fritsch seemed to have a poor game, but those half forward and pocket roles, it’s hard to play consistently well, week in week out.

Was difficult for Fritta.

There was not much room down there. Swans flooded and applied a lot of pressure to kicks into our fifty.

Its hard ro change a team that beat such a good side and Swans are definately a top side.

It might be worth trialling Sam w though and the only way to do that would be melk or jackson out but i dont think it will happen.

It would be tough to drop Lj after such a season. If hes carrying a niggle then it might just happen.

One things for sure that if Sw gets a look in he would want to make sure he smashes it?

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15 minutes ago, leave it to deever said:

Was difficult for Fritta.

There was not much room down there. Swans flooded and applied a lot of pressure to kicks into our fifty.

Its hard ro change a team that beat such a good side and Swans are definately a top side.

It might be worth trialling Sam w though and the only way to do that would be melk or jackson out but i dont think it will happen.

It would be tough to drop Lj after such a season. If hes carrying a niggle then it might just happen.

One things for sure that if Sw gets a look in he would want to make sure he smashes it?

A majority of comments announce that it is time for the Weed to have another shot at the big time, so what better opportunity might exist than a game against Carlton? He surely can make a greater contribution (other than just taking marks) than what the Melk has done? It will also provide a better decoy going into deep forward - in the hope that it may release an over-manned Fritta to play his more natural game foraging for crumbs and more meaningful scoring opportunities that has made us so potent 'down there' this season. With TMac and BBrown, as well, supported by some great smalls in every action and ground ball, the Blues just won't have the coverage that they will need to prevent us from (largely) free scoring.

My tertiary thoughts seal the deal: dropping in for addition support are LJ and Gawn, one a terrific midfield-to-deep forward utility and the Captain, perhaps the most reliable mark and play instigator in the League.

Carlton will be scratching themselves and losing their cool with one another for an entire game - then faced with attempting to break into our whole backline fortress to 'catch up' on the scoreboard. That just ain't going to happen.

If the Demons' midfield play angry with mongrel and sheer cruelty as well, the blues ship is going to spend most of their time visiting Davey Jones and his deep kelp seaweed forests.

 

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16 minutes ago, Deemania since 56 said:

A majority of comments announce that it is time for the Weed to have another shot at the big time, so what better opportunity might exist than a game against Carlton? He surely can make a greater contribution (other than just taking marks) than what the Melk has done? It will also provide a better decoy going into deep forward - in the hope that it may release an over-manned Fritta to play his more natural game foraging for crumbs and more meaningful scoring opportunities that has made us so potent 'down there' this season. With TMac and BBrown, as well, supported by some great smalls in every action and ground ball, the Blues just won't have the coverage that they will need to prevent us from (largely) free scoring.

My tertiary thoughts seal the deal: dropping in for addition support are LJ and Gawn, one a terrific midfield-to-deep forward utility and the Captain, perhaps the most reliable mark and play instigator in the League.

Carlton will be scratching themselves and losing their cool with one another for an entire game - then faced with attempting to break into our whole backline fortress to 'catch up' on the scoreboard. That just ain't going to happen.

If the Demons' midfield play angry with mongrel and sheer cruelty as well, the blues ship is going to spend most of their time visiting Davey Jones and his deep kelp seaweed forests.

 

It seems to me the longer Weideman stays out of the team, the more his reputation is enhanced.

I don't think the data supports the thesis that Weideman would necessarily be better than Melksham. According to Footywire, in 2020 (all averages, except for number of games):

Games: Melksham 17 - Weideman 13

Disposals: M 9.4 - W 7.7

Marks: M 2.9 - W 3.1

Goals: M 0.9 - W 1.5

Goal Assists: M 0.6 - W 0.4

Score Involvements: M 3.5 - W 3.6

Tackles: M 1.4 - W 0.5

Tackles inside 50: M 0.5 - W 0.4

Contested possessions: M 3.8 - W 3.6

Contested marks: M 0.2 - W 1.3

Clangers: M 2.5 - W 1.2

Clearances: M 0.7 - W 0.1

I've been selective, but tried to identify the stats that might matter most for the roles they play. If you want to see the full comparison go to https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_compare?playerStatus1=A&tid1=12&playerStatus2=A&tid2=12&type=A&pid1=3323&pid2=4171&fid1=P&fopt1=2020&fid2=P&fopt2=2020

Frankly, I see no obvious reason to pick one over the other based purely on these stats.

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58 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

It seems to me the longer Weideman stays out of the team, the more his reputation is enhanced.

I don't think the data supports the thesis that Weideman would necessarily be better than Melksham. According to Footywire, in 2020 (all averages, except for number of games):

Games: Melksham 17 - Weideman 13

Disposals: M 9.4 - W 7.7

Marks: M 2.9 - W 3.1

Goals: M 0.9 - W 1.5

Goal Assists: M 0.6 - W 0.4

Score Involvements: M 3.5 - W 3.6

Tackles: M 1.4 - W 0.5

Tackles inside 50: M 0.5 - W 0.4

Contested possessions: M 3.8 - W 3.6

Contested marks: M 0.2 - W 1.3

Clangers: M 2.5 - W 1.2

Clearances: M 0.7 - W 0.1

I've been selective, but tried to identify the stats that might matter most for the roles they play. If you want to see the full comparison go to https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_compare?playerStatus1=A&tid1=12&playerStatus2=A&tid2=12&type=A&pid1=3323&pid2=4171&fid1=P&fopt1=2020&fid2=P&fopt2=2020

Frankly, I see no obvious reason to pick one over the other based purely on these stats.

The stats are largely even - distributed and each has a particular meaning/interpretation. Thanks for this array. 

My issue is really about experience and potential. In this regard, the Melk has been playing at AFL level with both the Dees and with Essendon for much longer accumulated AFL game times (at this level) than the Weed. The Melk has achieved a couple of very good, sustained performances across more than one season. The Weed in comparison, has not. Melk also is reaching an age where the footballing sunset is forseeable and some consider it to be predictable; and, this has combined with a minor loss of form across this season, and in 2020. For the Weed, the sunset would appear to be a far greater distance away. His form has (by most accounts) been on the improve and is exciting many Demons fans, at present.  The scales are tipping, surely?

However, if we are to benefit from depth, experience and match conditioning - as well as re-confirming abilities and aptitudes of both Melk and Weed at the present moment, it is my opinion (only) that Melk could be returned to Casey for some stimulating,  improved performance readiness - rather than/relative to - a continuity of AFL selection. Weideman would most likely be the best current replacement for Melk in the AFL team should the aforementioned Casey practice eventuate. 

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I don’t see a change this week unless someone has an injury that’s not on our official list.

Watched the replay and Brayshaw was impressive in the first half, so I can forgive his very poor last quarter and hope that he can learn from his mistakes.

People are still calling for Melksham to be dropped, but it won’t be for another tall like Weid. Regardless of any statistical similarities, they play completely different roles. Our team defence, and rebounding attack, relies on hard running and ability to create. Melksham plays this role, and he was clean on Saturday compared to many others, and is building form. Weideman just has to wait like Petty did before Tomlinson went down.

Form is a bit patchy for some players, but you don’t change a winning formula unless you have to.

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On 5/8/2021 at 11:26 PM, BLWNBA said:

Harmes for Sparrow. 
 

Unfortunately for Harmes he’s a liability. He mad some atrocious errors at some pivotal times in the game and how he was rewarded ahead of Sparrow is beyond me. 
 

I’d rather Jones out there, he offers more and his form has overwhelming been better. 
 

I understand it won’t happen, but that’s what I’d like to see. 

What game did you watch mate? Harmes was brilliant! 

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Posted (edited)
On 5/9/2021 at 12:12 AM, P-man said:

No change for me.

Harmes is on the fringes and I don’t think we’d lose anything by swapping him for Sparrow but on merit I don’t think you can make a strong enough argument for a change.

Harmes is on the fringes after 31 disposals (21 of them contested), 7 tackles and 5 score involvements? His DE was a bit low at 61% and he started the game fumbly, but I think he'll be much better for the run. 

As I mentioned in another thread, I'd have him tagging Walsh this week.

Edited by A F
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On 5/8/2021 at 10:22 PM, Return to Glory said:

Probably no change but I’d be interested to hear what others thought of Brayshaw’s game. For the record, I thought he was plumb ordinary 

I'll play here. How would you play on the wing instead? I'd take Brayshaw over Baker every day of the week. Tom McDonald is playing too well forward to play him on a wing or could this be the week that we try McDonald on the wing and bring in Weideman?

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On 5/8/2021 at 10:36 PM, titan_uranus said:

Petty was poor but IMO should hold his spot to work on his connection with the others in the backline.

Brayshaw's positioning was excellent but his disposal poor. Wouldn't drop him, though.

Melksham was significantly better this week than last week. Not the week to be calling for his head if you don't like him.

Harmes' fourth quarter was important so I'd keep him but I'm far from convinced.

So all of that said, may be no change.

How was Petty poor? Have you watched the replay? It can be good to watch the game when the emotion is taken out of it...

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On 5/8/2021 at 10:43 PM, one_demon said:

Please don't play Petracca if he has a corky.  We need him cherry ripe for tougher games coming up.

Imagine us around the contest sans Viney and Petracca. They won't rest Petracca with a corky. We're not playing under 12s here. Players have to play through corkies.

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1 hour ago, A F said:

Harmes is on the fringes after 31 disposals (21 of them contested), 7 tackles and 5 score involvements? His DE was a bit low at 61% and he started the game fumbly, but I think he'll be much better for the run. 

As I mentioned in another thread, I'd have him tagging Walsh this week.

You have my vote AF

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On 5/8/2021 at 11:56 PM, DeeSpencer said:

Fritsch is poor defensively but he flies for his marks with rare courage.

Melksham can’t take a chest mark in 20m of space. Not the first time and unless something is done about it, won’t be the last.

We need his skills in the side but the coaches aren’t doing him or the team favours if they don’t set basics standards on intensity and courage. 

Fritsch was horrendous, but we can handle one down week. He'll be back next week.

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I don’t get the Brayshaw critics. He is absolutely playing to the role he has been given. Motoring up and down the wing, super clean with his ground ball and hard in when he needs to be. His first half disposals last week were immaculate. He has a couple of clangers in the second half but they were under very heavy pressure.

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1 hour ago, A F said:

Harmes is on the fringes after 31 disposals (21 of them contested), 7 tackles and 5 score involvements? His DE was a bit low at 61% and he started the game fumbly, but I think he'll be much better for the run. 

As I mentioned in another thread, I'd have him tagging Walsh this week.

No disrespect to him but if he isn’t on the fringes, particularly when it comes to the midfield, who is? 

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1 hour ago, P-man said:

No disrespect to him but if he isn’t on the fringes, particularly when it comes to the midfield, who is? 

Harmes has the flexibility to play the same role Viney was playing, which is high half forward and midfield rotation. I think we need Oliver, Petracca, Viney, Harmes and Jordon all in. Sparrow replaces Jordon when his form dips or he tires. 

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1 hour ago, FlashInThePan said:

I don’t get the Brayshaw critics. He is absolutely playing to the role he has been given. Motoring up and down the wing, super clean with his ground ball and hard in when he needs to be. His first half disposals last week were immaculate. He has a couple of clangers in the second half but they were under very heavy pressure.

Some were, some weren't. He seems good for a couple of absolute brain fade skill errors a week, plus some strange decision making where his tempo doesn't match what the team is doing. He's strong one on one in the air or on the ground and is a smart player. I'm glad he seems to be doing a role but overall feel he's still nowhere near getting close to maximising his talent.

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Posted (edited)

What's this nonsense about Petty being shaky? Sure, he was a little shaky against Hawthorn, but he was solid the other night. May and Lever have also had their share of shaky moments this season too. It happens when you're playing in defence and the pressure comes or players infer pressure. 

I think Harry was out-marked twice up the ground and didn't quite hit the kick to McDonald that cost us an early goal - that play was a little unlucky, but sloppy.

He did however take an important intercept mark when the Swans were coming and was never exposed deep.

He also played our deepest anchor role at times (see First Crack and On The Couch).

Petty will get better from here with more continuity and become an important cog in our team defence. The more he settles in now, the better he'll be, and the better our team defence will be, come the pointy end of the season.

Edited by A F
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3 minutes ago, A F said:

What's this nonsense about Petty being shaky? Sure, he was a little shaky against Hawthorn, but he was solid the other night. May and Lever have also had their share of shaky moments this season too. It happens when you're playing in defence and the pressure comes or players infer pressure. 

I think Harry was out-marked twice up the ground and didn't quite hit the kick to McDonald that cost us an early goal - that play was a little unlucky, but sloppy.

He did however take an important intercept mark when the Swans were coming and was never exposed deep.

He also played our deepest anchor role at times (see First Crack and On The Couch).

Petty will get better from here with more continuity and become an important cog in our team defence. The more he settles in now, the better he'll be, the better our team defence will be, come the pointy end of the season.

with you, we've been spoilt by the tremendous year Tommlinson was having. considering the supply the Swans got, Petty and the entire back 6 stood up incredibly well. considering his opponent mclean dominated the week before i was really happy with Petty 

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