Jump to content

  • Podcast:     

  • Podcast:     

My Round 4 Preview and Prediction



Recommended Posts

12 minutes ago, Jjrogan said:

Our present scoring efficiency (46 %) versus the opposition's (61% ) is about as extreme as it gets. Any reversion to the mean will be welcomed.  

Overall we're started the year very strong and balanced. Our ratio of scoring shots to opposition is actually only second best because the doggies had a bye last week.   

If we dominate the midfield one of these weeks it has potential to be a blow out.

Huh?

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 66
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

WOW! 3 rounds, 3 wins and 12 premiership points in the bank. It is so long since we have experienced such a high position on the ladder this early in the season it is giving me nose bleeds.

Smokey, I have done these previews the last few weeks and will try to continue to knock them out each week. I do them because I am a Demon tragic and I enjoy it. I find that it also makes me think a b

We won't be favourites, advantage us.

Dees will be in front all game after the first goal (to Geelong from a free kick for nothing to Hawkins in front of goal). By the end of the 4th qtr, Dees will have amassed over 100 points again and Geelong will be humiliated with less than 40 points scored.

'Carna Dees! 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Jjrogan said:

Bad joke.  Better said, playing North will boost everyone's percentage and scoring stats this year. 

Oh, ok, now don't do that again and stop feeding my paranoia. I've been to Tassie for 4 games in recent years and lost every one. The last thing on my mind is an increase in percentage. I just want to win down there.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Just an aside. When are the umpires for any match announced publicly? I had a quick look at the AFL site and no result for our match. Am I looking in the wrong place or not following the right clicks so to speak. The reason I ask is that Geelong are the leagues worst culprits for staging, going to ground with no evident contact, pretending to get hit high when it was a chest bump and sniping when they think they can get away with it. Impartial umpires would help.  

Edited by maximum bob
Link to post
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, maximum bob said:

Just an aside. When are the umpires for any match announced publicly? I had a quick look at the AFL site and no result for our match. Am I looking in the wrong place or not following the right clicks so to speak. The reason I ask is that Geelong are the leagues worst culprits for staging, going to ground with no evident contact, pretending to get hit high when it was a chest bump and sniping when they think they can get away with it. Impartial umpires would help.  

Listed on the umpires website each week:  https://aflua.com.au/umpire-appointments/

Round 4:  https://aflua.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021-AFL-Season-Umpire-Appointments-Round-4-edit.pdf

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, dworship said:

Oh, ok, now don't do that again and stop feeding my paranoia. I've been to Tassie for 4 games in recent years and lost every one. The last thing on my mind is an increase in percentage. I just want to win down there.

Me to Dworship

This is never going to be a given we will have a better chance V Bulldogs or Port

I will be taking the odds with North Thnank you

Link to post
Share on other sites

From the first bounce, maintain a strong defensive structure and run run run. Tell Langdon, Hunt, Kozzi, Gus, Alex to run non stop in the first Q. Kick straight and the game should be blown open. 

the Cats don’t have a plan B. So when we are up by 30 we can play defensively and handle their BS tactics

Link to post
Share on other sites

Couple of thoughts in no particular order, with selective use of stats where it suits me!

In rounds two and three Geelong only managed four goals in each second half. 

Leads me to think that without Dangerfield providing the inside-50s, score involvements, goal assists and any other offensive stat you care to name as well as clearances, Geelong struggle to sustain scoring power.

Mitch Duncan (not Selwood) is Geelong's no.2 for just about everything that Dangerfield is no.1.

Tom Hawkins isn't just Geelong's leading goal-kicker with more than double any other, he is also their leading generator of scores for others (goal assists, score involvements) and even their best pressure forward.

Stanley/Blicavs are sharing ruck duties approximately 2/1 and Stanley is getting much more involved in general play than he ever has before.  Fascinating match up for Gawn/Jackson.

Tom Stewart warrants a defensive forward on him to limit his rebound as no other defenders bring the same quality of counter-attack.

Isaac Smith has had a grand total of 5 contested possessions after three rounds of football and must be forced.

Geelong have an unusual defence with almost all of them being 191cm+ but the tallest being Henderson at 196cm then Kolodjashnij at 193cm.  It's a real shame Brown isn't available to stretch them, but Gawn will have a major advantage up there if he isn't being used to plug holes in front of Hawkins. 

On the flipside, Geelong don't have the kind of mobility in defence to control the Nibbler, Spargo, Viney, Jordan, Pickett swarm who are all in the top 30 for tackles inside 50 this season (along with, surprisingly, McDonald and Fritsch, with Jackson also just outside).

Put another way, the Cats are in the very lowest group for inside 50s against them, and will be playing the AFL's top inside-50 team, and they don't have the players to cope well with chaos in their defence and are playing against the best forward pressure team (!!!) in the AFL right now. They will be relying on midfielders running hard to get back, over and over. Old midfielders.  Old midfielders who they also need to be doing all the inside-50 work.

I say, play on like crazy and be willing to bomb it to the contest if there is no clear option.  Just this once.

The little guys will kick 10 between them.

 

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Heres hoping the umpires dont get an early jump on us😁

Edited by leave it to deever
  • Love 1
  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, leave it to deever said:

Heres hopimg the umpires dont get an early jump on us😁

Sounds silly, doesn't it? Sadly, it's true. Umpires are the only negative of this game against Geelong this weekend. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

A bit of an update on my preview and prediction –

There is talk over at the Kardy park site that OÇonnor with a hard tag on Oliver will cause Oliver to lose it and lash out and give away frees. I believe that he will learn from last week and more play the ball – really revert to ‘see ball – get ball’ and let the tag take care of itself. Early in last week’s game he got a few frees for holding and although he did not get a lot of possessions, he still had 3 center clearances by halftime.

I will back him to come back from his first half last week.

If I was a Cats supporter I would be more concerned about Selwood’s reaction to a possible Viney tag/run with. I still smile to myself recalling Hawkins with the ball in front of goal having to give it up for a free on the wing because Selwood lost it on his way to the bench. I am sure our players will remind him of that incident at the proper time.

Midfield match ups will be interesting. Interesting to see what they are at the first bounce and how they evolve during the game.

If Kossie is at the first bounce, who will the cats put on him?

I think our midfield will win out and expose Geelong on the open space of the G.

Revising upward my initial winning margin of 3 goals to 5 goals.

Link to post
Share on other sites

On 4/8/2021 at 8:40 PM, Lucifer's Hero said:

The three field umpires are also listed at the bottom of the AFL Team lists each week although you do have to "expand" the list

Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, CHF said:

h. I still smile to myself recalling Hawkins with the ball in front of goal having to give it up for a free on the wing because Selwood lost it on his way to the bench. I am sure our players will remind him of that incident at the prope

Twas footy Gold.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Match Previews, Reports & Articles

    THE EYE OF THE STORM by Whispering Jack

    When Melbourne monstered Richmond a few weeks back on the MCG thereby registering their sixth win on the trot, the block of games to follow looked highly appealing. After a stirring victory in difficult conditions over the reigning premier, the games to come were against a quartet of low achievers from 2020. North were winless, the Swans were the early high flyers now falling into a slump, Carlton couldn’t take a trick and the Crows had just lost an unloseable game to the Hawks in Launceston. Ev

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

    DUCKING A PLUCKING by George On The Outer

    With seven consecutive wins for 2021 behind it, and not having played well in its previous game,  Melbourne was ripe for the picking (or plucking) by the Sydney Swans. However, in the end, it was the Ducks who found themselves plucked by a Demons side that continues its relentless successful roll for the Season. Or did the Demons narrowly duck a plucking themselves? Sydney brought its usual game style to the M.C.G.  Get in front and then shut down the game, scrap and refuse to mov

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    THE MERRY, MERRY MONTH OF MAY by The Oracle

    The month of May was a little more than halfway into its second day when the news came. Melbourne was on top of the AFL table for the first time since Round 3, 2005. As usual with the Demons, there was no time for celebration. They had just lost tough nut Jack Viney with yet another soft spot in his foot, Adam Tomlinson’s year was in ruins with what was subsequently confirmed as an ACL and Bayley Fritsch’s careless but unintentional fend off on North’s Tom Powell was about to see him charge

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

    BLUNDSTONE BOOTED by George on the Outer

    The tough Aussie Blundstone boot is made for true blue collar workers, and so it was at this aptly named stadium in Hobart, that the Demons were made to work their hardest for their seventh consecutive win of the season. From the outset, North Melbourne put scoreboard pressure on Melbourne with two majors at an early stage in the first quarter. The Demons fought back and temporarily had the lead but the Kangaroos responded to lead by five points at quarter time. This was not what the public

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    UNTROUBLED by KC from Casey

    The Casey Demons were untroubled for the third week in a row as they went on a four quarter romp at Marvel Stadium to record a 107 point win over an undermanned bottom-of-the-ladder North Melbourne VFL. The scoring riot began about ten minutes into the game when Sam Weideman notched the first of four goals that could easily have been six or seven but for some uncharacteristic misses from close in. The Demon forward, spurned so far by the club’s AFL selectors, demonstrated a strong work rate

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Casey Articles

    I’LL GIVE THEE A WIND by Whispering Jack

    The football world was reminded this week about the last time Melbourne opened a season with six wins or more in a row. That was in 1965 when Sir Robert Gordon Menzies was Prime Minister of Australia and the country was fighting a war in faraway Vietnam. It was before Jack Viney’s father, Todd, was born — a time when the game was played almost exclusively on Saturdays and when Demon fans used to wake up in the morning mostly safe in the knowledge that there was not even the remotest possibility

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

    MAKING HISTORY by KC from Casey

    This was a weekend of history with Anzac Day commemorations throughout the community including the sporting world including the VFL. For the Casey Demons, which originated from the Springvale Football Club founded in 1903, it was a double celebration as Saturday’s game was a celebration of the club’s 750th VFA/VFL match since admission to the competition in 1982. Springvale became the Casey Scorpions in 2005 when the club moved to Casey Fields and since 2017 has been known as the Casey Demo

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Casey Articles

    THE TWO ELEPHANTS NOT IN THE ROOM by WJ

    After another slow start when they conceded 2.3.15 to nothing in a handball-happy opening 15 minutes, the unflappable Demons delivered a warning sign of major proportions to the rest of the competition with their 34-point win over the reigning premiers in their Anzac Eve contest. And what made things even more ominous is that they did it without two elephants in the room - key forwards Ben Brown and Sam Weideman who have been amassing goals at VFL level while coming back from injuries that

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    A TALE OF TWO HEROES by Whispering Jack

    On Saturday night at the ANZAC Day Eve game between Melbourne and Richmond, we will give recognition to the achievements of two great Demons who made significant contributions to the Melbourne Football Club over substantially different time spans. The first is the late Frank V “Checker” Hughes who was born on 26 February 1894 and began his career as a Richmond player in 1915. Shortly after, Hughes was called on to serve his country when he went to war during WW1. He returned from battle and

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Special Features

    TURNING POINT by The Oracle

    It wasn’t that long ago when Melbourne held sway in its Anzac Eve matches against Richmond. The early versions of the blockbuster saw the Demons home by 32 points in 2015 and 33 in 2016. When the turning point came it was dramatic and sudden. The Demons might have been on an upward curve in 2017 under new coach Simon Goodwin but so were the Tigers who had finished a disappointing 13th in 2016. When the teams met in Round 5 under lights in front of a crowd of 85,657 — the highest ever betwee

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

    STARTING OVER by KC from Casey

    The Casey Demons made a successful return to the playing field with a 51 point away from home victory over the Box Hill Hawks. The visitors were starting over after a hiatus of almost 20 months and fielded a strong team of 14 AFL listed players against an undermanned opponent. And they showed from the first bounce that they were out to make up for lost time with an aggressive opening that saw them off to 21 point lead at the first break with thanks to a dominant midfield and two key forward

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Casey Articles

    NUTCRACKER by George on the Outer

    Q: How to crack a tough nut? A: Use a bigger hammer! It took Melbourne until the last quarter to crack the Hawthorn nut. These days, the Hawks under Alastair Clarkson simply don’t have the talent that served them so well in years gone, and they have to rely on not losing rather than trying to win.   The result is that the match became a slog for three quarters, as Hawthorn clogged the game, flooded heavily and simply stopped the Melbourne run.  Even in the first quarter the signs

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports


×
×
  • Create New...