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Free Kick Differential 2021



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Happy to be corrected, but I believe Richmond been last in this stat for the past 4-5 years.

They are coached to play on the edge and it works for them.

Also, they're not necessarily interested in being first to the ball, instead sweating on their opponents which provides turnover scoring (usually the most efficient scoring method) but also free kicks against.

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On 5/17/2021 at 1:48 PM, Nasher said:

Absolutely no correlation whatsoever between free kick diff and ladder position, shock horror. Maybe we might eliminate the culture our sport has of relentlessly complaining about the umpiring and blaming losses on it? Nah, of course not.

There is one element of the free kick continuum worthy of consideration - in terms of handouts and game-levelers. Years of appreciating footy had taught me that it ain't the number of frees you get (nor the differentials between teams awarded frees during matchplay), it is really just a blatant matter of WHEN, WHERE and WHY the free kicks are awarded.

Some teams are blessed with oodles of frees in the backline. Some teams are blessed with oodles of frees in the forward line - particularly near the goals when a 'catch-up' circumstance is required (this equates to rigging a win, in reality). 

 

Ask yourself:

  • Where would you rather earn a free kick?
  • When is it most important to be awarded a free kick near the goals in a game of footy?
  • How many matches in an entire season are won from the award of free kicks or the contrasting 'overlooked' incidents that should be awarded a free kick in front of goal but were not for some unexplained reason that many experienced spectators cannot articulate - let alone understand?

For the purists among us, '..heil, heil the conspiracy theory...'  (simply because it is logical evidence of 'the fiddle' with games.

For the optimists among us, '...it's all just fine...the umps did a good job...'

 

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9 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Given I can't discern any link between this data and ladder position, can't say that I care. 

That's what they want you to think LDVC.....propaganda from the machine.

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Given the "darlings" of the AFL the Bulldogs are so favored you would have to reckon' The Bont is leading the Brownlow.

They might struggle to stay top 4 if that +32 gets evened up over the second half of the year.

I'm glad we're close to even, it means the fools in yellow don't enter a game thinking they've got to limit the frees to us.

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 1 month later...

Surely about time we get #freekickbulldogs trending. It’s out of control now. 

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Watching a lot of games on TV the interpretation varies considerably game by game.  

Given what appears to be subjective decision making in many instances over the long haul frees should be around 50/50, ie win some/lose some. Most of incorrect disposal frees could go either way.

We just had a bad night by the law of averages and we will hopefully make it up later.

Having said that goals against from 50/50 decisions on incorrect disposal etc really hurt.

I can't figure out how if a players arm is held there is prior opportunity.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Demonland said:

We’re in the negative now 

image.png

 

GFC, surely the League HQ will have to address that before the finals.

That disparity for the Dogs is just over the top.

Tiggers probably have cause for complaint as well.

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In an industry obsessed with statistics nobody in the media ever wants to go near this with a 10 foot pole, but at both ends of that table there are MASSIVE outliers.

You could, theoretically, make an argument that Richmond (or any team in that position) are pushing the laws of the game with certain behaviour to explain that discrepancy, but how can you possibly say that one team is playing 'within' the rules by that much more than their opponents?

It's not an anomaly.

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16 minutes ago, The heart beats true said:

In an industry obsessed with statistics nobody in the media ever wants to go near this with a 10 foot pole, but at both ends of that table there are MASSIVE outliers.

You could, theoretically, make an argument that Richmond (or any team in that position) are pushing the laws of the game with certain behaviour to explain that discrepancy, but how can you possibly say that one team is playing 'within' the rules by that much more than their opponents?

It's not an anomaly.

Not an anomaly if the dogs played Richmond every week ?

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I’d like to see the figures for the 2016 finals series...I bet you’ll find a similar trend of favouritism towards the Dogs. 

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16 minutes ago, Star of the 80s said:

I’d like to see the figures for the 2016 finals series...I bet you’ll find a similar trend of favouritism towards the Dogs. 

Bulldogs won all their free kick counts in 4 finals including against WC at Perth. 79 frees for to 48 against. 
In the prelim and GF it was a total of 43 to 21 in their favour. 

Edited by John Crow Batty
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Will be interesting to see what happens in this year’s final series. Umpires seem to love the Dogs and obviously helped them in their Premiership year in ‘16.

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