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4 hours ago, buck_nekkid said:

Players were trying to do too much.  Happened again and again.  Either the system works, or the superstars do super things.  We look like we didn’t trust the system, and all the superstars were well down.  When have yo seem max, Clarrie and Trac all have such stinkers on the same day?

Very rare for Clarry to have an off day Buck that's for sure and as you say with all three off their best.  Had Clarry been able to muster his usual standard game i suggest we would have gotten much closer and maybe over the line if he flew at his best.

My issue here is that in the last few weeks i've started to see a bit of selfishness creep in in patches with less sharing of goals/blocks/shepherds etc and that's a worrying sign.

I think the system works on the larger grounds like the G, not so sure it's a smart way to play on a squashed up ground like the SCG.  Personally i thought we gave them way too much rope off HB and up to half way/just over with the zone and enabled them to launch attack after attack far too often from damaging launching places.

To me the SCG (or similar sized grounds) demands a much more in your face style of defence, in order to pressure the opponents in to turning the ball over more often behind of and not much further than center.  Guarding grass and taking space on the SCG for me....not a great idea.  And the Pies gained confidence the longer the match went on and the longer we continued to do so.

Our contested ground ball, loose ground ball gets and pressure inside our 50 was deplorable as well IMV which didn't help matters and saw their backs either marking uncontested or running off at will from resulting spills far too often.  Spargo (in particular) and Kozzie both had a poor day in a crumbing/pressuring sense and just in general really.  Too many times our tall forwards either didn't make the contest or did not impact when they did and played from behind far too often.

The other issue is you are sometimes going to see your best having an off day as you say and to me this is when some of the remaining lessor lights need to take some responsibility and say "not on my watch" and step up to the plate.

To have the bulk of the team, bar a few of the regulars with a few rookies sprinkled in, also having some pretty ordinary efforts was the clincher.   Yes leaders need to step up also and yes many were off as you say like Maxy.  But just once in a while the others need to do their bit and take the responsibility to lift, especially the more mature players and to a lessor degree some of the rookies also.  Jordan and LJ were two that stood out as doing so but unfortunately not enough went with them.

One area i thought was consistently badly played was the constant tap/knock forward of center by Maxy in the center square ruck contests where the Pies were reading this and running to in numbers.  Then spreading out the back, linking around and then direct inside 50 on multiple forays.  We (Maxy) did not appear to arrest this flaw at any stage until we finally relieved Big M of his ruck duties for LJ in the third (or maybe late into the 2nd), with Maxy then resting more up forward.  For one of the rare times ever, i actually thought Max was a liability in the center square ruck contests in this particular match and thought it was no coincidence that we started to turn things around once LJ took over.  Max has had a few games this season where i thought he has really put us behind the eight ball with some decisions / tapping of late...including the match against the Crows.

One question i would love to ask the line coach here is ..."Was this pointed out to Maxy at any stage when he was resting on the bench?".  If he wasn't resting and instead resting forward then surely you take him off at some point and get the message through.  And /or if you are allowing max to continue with this strat, then highlight to the rest of the followers what the hell is happening and fix up their starting positions/structure to make sure they are getting to this drop zone more often and compete like Demons to wrestle the game back off them!!

The other very poor call for mine (in game) was the late call to place Harmes on a rampaging DeGoey, mostly in the second.  Could be wrong but it was my impression they left Sparrow on him for almost the entire first half (possibly switched Harmes onto him in the last 5 to 8 minutes or so of the second...possibly even later) but by that stage the momentum / damage was done IMHO.

We were well beaten on and off the park yesterday.  Cudos to Bucks and his crew but a little worrying for us if we are ever going back to similar sized grounds this season.

Edited by Rusty Nails
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3 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

Very rare for Clarry to have an off day Buck that's for sure and as you say with all three off their best.  Had Clarry been able to muster his usual standard game i suggest we would have gotten much closer and maybe over the line if he flew at his best.

My issue here is that in the last few weeks i've started to see a bit of selfishness creep in in patches with less sharing of goals/blocks/shepherds etc and that's a worrying sign.

I think the system works on the larger grounds like the G, not so sure it's a smart way to play on a squashed up ground like the SCG.  Personally i thought we gave them way too much rope off HB and up to half way/just over with the zone and enabled them to launch attack after attack far too often from damaging launching places.

To me the SCG (or similar sized grounds) demands a much more in your face style of defence, in order to pressure the opponents in to turning the ball over more often behind of and not much further than center.  Guarding grass and taking space on the SCG for me....not a great idea.  And the Pies gained confidence the longer the match went on and the longer we continued to do so.

Our contested ground ball, loose ground ball gets and pressure inside our 50 was deplorable as well IMV which didn't help matters and saw their backs either marking uncontested or running off at will from resulting spills far too often.  Spargo (in particular) and Kozzie both had a poor day in a crumbing/pressuring sense and just in general really.  Too many times our tall forwards either didn't make the contest or did not impact when they did and played from behind far too often.

The other issue is you are sometimes going to see your best having an off day as you say and to me this is when some of the remaining lessor lights need to take some responsibility and say "not on my watch" and step up to the plate.

To have the bulk of the team, bar a few of the regulars with a few rookies sprinkled in, also having some pretty ordinary efforts was the clincher.   Yes leaders need to step up also and yes many were off as you say like Maxy.  But just once in a while the others need to do their bit and take the responsibility to lift, especially the more mature players and to a lessor degree some of the rookies also.  Jordan and LJ were two that stood out as doing so but unfortunately not enough went with them.

One area i thought was consistently badly played was the constant tap/knock forward of center by Maxy in the center square ruck contests where the Pies were reading this and running to in numbers.  Then spreading out the back, linking around and then direct inside 50 on multiple forays.  We (Maxy) did not appear to arrest this flaw at any stage until we finally relieved Big M of his ruck duties for LJ in the third (or maybe late into the 2nd), with Maxy then resting more up forward.  For one of the rare times ever, i actually thought Max was a liability in the center square ruck contests in this particular match and thought it was no coincidence that we started to turn things around once LJ took over.  Max has had a few games this season where i thought he has really put us behind the eight ball with some decisions / tapping of late...including the match against the Crows.

One question i would love to ask the line coach here is ..."Was this pointed out to Maxy at any stage when he was resting on the bench?".  If he wasn't resting and instead resting forward then surely you take him off at some point and get the message through.  And /or if you are allowing max to continue with this strat, then highlight to the rest of the followers what the hell is happening and fix up their starting positions/structure to make sure they are getting to this drop zone more often and compete like Demons to wrestle the game back off them!!

The other very poor call for mine (in game) was the late call to place Harmes on a rampaging DeGoey, mostly in the second.  Could be wrong but it was my impression they left Sparrow on him for almost the entire first half (possibly switched Harmes onto him in the last 5 to 8 minutes or so of the second...possibly even later) but by that stage the momentum / damage was done IMHO.

We were well beaten on and off the park yesterday.  Cudos to Bucks and his crew but a little worrying for us if we are ever going back to similar sized grounds this season.

Agree completely with your review and analysis…. Especially the game style on grounds like the SCG (probably cattery as well).  LJ was a much better choice than Max in the middle, and we simply were off all over the park. 

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8 hours ago, buck_nekkid said:

Agree completely with your review and analysis…. Especially the game style on grounds like the SCG (probably cattery as well).  LJ was a much better choice than Max in the middle, and we simply were off all over the park. 

It appears to me we cannot use our standard game plan at the SCG It removes one of our strengths playing through the Wings

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  • 2 weeks later...

Rnd 15, 2021 MCG - Bombers vs Demons

May takes the chocolates....just.

Lingers the most meters gained for both clubs tonight with 602.  Turnover king tonight was Tracc with 7.  The most score involvements T-Mac with 9 closely followed by Gus & Tracc with 8.  The most tackles inside 50 Spargo with 3.  Lever lead the intercepts with 10 followed by May with 8.  The most one percenters May with 9.

Team score of 65 a big improvement on last week's 56 but still about 4% off our season average of 68.

Player Score Rank
Steven May  5.025 1
Christian Salem  5.000 2
Clayton Oliver  5.000 2
Jake Lever  4.425 4
James Harmes  3.975 5
Angus Brayshaw  3.800 6
Ed Langdon  3.625 7
James Jordon  3.600 8
Jayden Hunt  3.025 9
Christian Petracca  2.750 10
Tom Sparrow  2.550 11
Tom McDonald # 2.525 12
Luke Jackson # 2.525 12
Trent Rivers  2.475 14
Jack Viney  2.450 15
Max Gawn # 2.425 16
Michael Hibberd  2.250 17
Charlie Spargo  1.975 18
Bayley Fritsch  1.750 19
Harrison Petty  1.525 20
Kysaiah Pickett  1.300 21
Alex N-Bullen  1.100 22
Team Score 65.08  
Top 6 27.23  
Bottom 6 9.90  

# Hit outs to advantage not captured

Stats courtesy of footywire.com

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Weighted Average Scores up to & including Rnd 15, 2021 vs 2019

Salem holding on to 2nd just ahead of May/Gawny*.  Harmes jumps into the top 5 again but realistically probably sitting around 6th once Max* gets a "Hit Outs to Advantage" bump up (to roughly 3rd/4th alongside May).

Kozzie continues to fall away from his early season form and Jones pushes back into the top 22 without setting foot on the turf since Rnd 7 :lol:

Player 2021 Score 2021 Rank 2019 Score % Change vs 2019 2019 Rank Change in Rank vs 2019
C Oliver  5.393 1 4.643 16.15 1 0
C Salem 4.094 2 3.658 11.92 3 1
Steven May  4.057 3 2.446 65.86 14 11
C Petracca  3.873 4 2.616 48.05 10 6
J Harmes 3.675 5 3.850 -4.55 2 -3
Jake Lever  3.579 6 2.313 54.73 17 11
Max Gawn # 3.550 7 3.256 9.03 4 -3
Ed Langdon  3.392 8        
Jack Viney 3.283 9 3.068 7.01 5 -4
James Jordan 3.165 10        
A Brayshaw  3.060 11 2.894 5.74 6 -5
T McDonald # 2.652 12 2.150 23.35 19 7
Jayden Hunt 2.646 13 1.958 35.14 22 9
M Hibberd 2.595 14 2.124 22.18 20 6
L Jackson # 2.523 15        
Trent Rivers 2.480 16        
M Brown* 2.475 17        
A Tomlinson 2.475 17        
K Pickett 2.391 19        
Oskar Baker* 2.325 20 1.714 35.65 29 9
Nathan Jones 2.214 21 2.711 -18.33 7 -14
Alex N-Bullen  2.209 22 1.984 11.34 21 -1
Tom Sparrow 2.185 23 1.075 103.26 37 14
Bayley Fritsch  2.035 24 2.641 -22.95 9 -15
Charlie Spargo 2.029 25 1.375 47.56 35 10
J Melksham 1.984 26 1.931 2.74 23 -3
H Petty 1.897 27 1.905 -0.42 24 -3
Neville Jetta  1.865 28 2.264 -17.62 18 -10
Ben Brown # 1.575 29        
S Weideman 1.055 30 1.818 -41.97 27 -3
K Chandler* 0.250 31        
Average Team Score - Top 22 68.49   59.62 14.87    

Hit outs to advantage not captured

* Only played one match not an average score

Stats courtesy of footywire.com

Edited by Rusty Nails
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Not sure if this has been mentioned in any other threads, but without having access to the actual data, there's a good chance that our Casey side was on average significantly older than our seniors. We've got 11 players on our list that who are 28 or older . Of these 7 played at Casey and 4 for the Dees, remarkably we were the second youngest team on the weekend just gone. 

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Rnd 16, 2021 MCG - Demons vs Giants

Disposals Per Goal  54.0
% In50s Goal 12.4
Conversion % 35.0

Our worst result in the above three scoring aspects all season.  The next worse for over using the ball was last week against the Bombers @42.11 Disposals Per Goal.  It appears, in hindsight, this was building.

And look at that conversion rate...gadzooks!  Tops off our 39.1% last week and 38.7% against the Saints in Rnd 2.

May takes the chockies two weeks running with his highest weighted score this season.  Salem's second best this year.  His best against the Tigers in Rnd 6 with a 6.60

The top four players obviously defenders.  Probably explained by the fact they were under the pump with plenty of entries from the Giants but they also performed admirably much of the time.

In a worrying sign the team weighted score of 62.58 was only 5% above the average of the (woeful) 2019 season and a massive 10% off our 2018 season average.  We will more than likely go out in the first round or straight sets (if we get the double chance) putting in performances like this or close to it.  7 matches left to turn the tide folks or it's going to be a pretty ugly finals series and a sour end to 2021!

Player Score Rank
Steven May  5.425 1
C Salem  5.275 2
Jake Lever  4.300 3
Trent Rivers  4.000 4
C Oliver  3.950 5
C Petracca  3.925 6
Ed Langdon  3.375 7
J Harmes  3.225 8
Max Gawn # 3.175 9
T McDonald  3.125 10
James Jordon  2.650 11
Bayley Fritsch  2.625 12
A Brayshaw  2.600 13
Alex N-Bullen  2.525 14
Jack Viney  2.300 15
H Petty  1.975 16
T Sparrow  1.950 17
Jayden Hunt  1.475 18
C Spargo  1.350 19
K Pickett  1.350 19
L Jackson # 1.300 21
M Hibberd  0.700 22
Team Score 62.58  
Top 6 26.88  
Bottom 6 8.13  

# Hit outs to advantage not captured

Stats courtesy of footywire.com

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Weighted Average Scores up to & including Rnd 16, 2021 vs 2019

Player 2021 Score 2021 Rank 2019 Score % Change vs 2019 2019 Rank Change in Rank vs 2019
C Oliver  5.297 1 4.643 14.09 1 0
C Salem 4.179 2 3.658 14.24 3 1
Steven May  4.160 3 2.446 70.07 14 11
C Petracca  3.877 4 2.616 48.20 10 6
Jake Lever  3.627 5 2.313 56.81 17 12
J Harmes 3.625 6 3.850 -5.84 2 -4
Max Gawn # 3.525 7 3.256 8.26 4 -3
Ed Langdon  3.391 8        
Jack Viney 3.143 9 3.068 2.44 5 -4
James Jordan 3.129 10        
A Brayshaw  3.078 11 2.894 6.36 6 -5
T McDonald # 2.683 12 2.150 24.79 19 7
Trent Rivers 2.582 13        
Jayden Hunt 2.563 14 1.958 30.90 22 8
M Brown* 2.475 15        
A Tomlinson 2.475 15        
L Jackson # 2.436 17        
M Hibberd 2.423 18 2.124 14.08 20 2
Oskar Baker* 2.325 19 1.714 35.65 29 10
K Pickett 2.322 20        
Alex N-Bullen  2.230 21 1.984 12.40 21 0
Nathan Jones 2.214 22 2.711 -18.33 7 -15
Tom Sparrow 2.155 23 1.075 100.47 37 14
Bayley Fritsch  2.077 24 2.641 -21.36 9 -15
J Melksham 1.984 25 1.931 2.74 23 -2
Charlie Spargo 1.983 26 1.375 44.22 35 9
H Petty 1.906 27 1.905 0.05 24 -3
Neville Jetta  1.865 28 2.264 -17.62 18 -10
Ben Brown # 1.575 29        
S Weideman 1.055 30 1.818 -41.97 27 -3
K Chandler* 0.250 31        
Average Team Score - Top 22 67.76   59.62 13.65    

Hit outs to advantage not captured

* Only played one match not an average score

Stats courtesy of footywire.com

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2 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

Weighted Average Scores up to & including Rnd 16, 2021 vs 2019

Player 2021 Score 2021 Rank 2019 Score % Change vs 2019 2019 Rank Change in Rank vs 2019
C Oliver  5.297 1 4.643 14.09 1 0
C Salem 4.179 2 3.658 14.24 3 1
Steven May  4.160 3 2.446 70.07 14 11
C Petracca  3.877 4 2.616 48.20 10 6
Jake Lever  3.627 5 2.313 56.81 17 12
J Harmes 3.625 6 3.850 -5.84 2 -4
Max Gawn # 3.525 7 3.256 8.26 4 -3
Ed Langdon  3.391 8        
Jack Viney 3.143 9 3.068 2.44 5 -4
James Jordan 3.129 10        
A Brayshaw  3.078 11 2.894 6.36 6 -5
T McDonald # 2.683 12 2.150 24.79 19 7
Trent Rivers 2.582 13        
Jayden Hunt 2.563 14 1.958 30.90 22 8
M Brown* 2.475 15        
A Tomlinson 2.475 15        
L Jackson # 2.436 17        
M Hibberd 2.423 18 2.124 14.08 20 2
Oskar Baker* 2.325 19 1.714 35.65 29 10
K Pickett 2.322 20        
Alex N-Bullen  2.230 21 1.984 12.40 21 0
Nathan Jones 2.214 22 2.711 -18.33 7 -15
Tom Sparrow 2.155 23 1.075 100.47 37 14
Bayley Fritsch  2.077 24 2.641 -21.36 9 -15
J Melksham 1.984 25 1.931 2.74 23 -2
Charlie Spargo 1.983 26 1.375 44.22 35 9
H Petty 1.906 27 1.905 0.05 24 -3
Neville Jetta  1.865 28 2.264 -17.62 18 -10
Ben Brown # 1.575 29        
S Weideman 1.055 30 1.818 -41.97 27 -3
K Chandler* 0.250 31        
Average Team Score - Top 22 67.76   59.62 13.65    

Hit outs to advantage not captured

* Only played one match not an average score

Stats courtesy of footywire.com

Thanks just confrms what i saw on a cold miserable afternoon

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Thanks Rusty. If you just look at the stats you’d think Oliver, Petracca, Harmes - all rated in our top 8 for the day - played well. But I think the midfield let us down badly.

Perhaps with the way these stats are compiled we need the midfield to fill out the first four or five places. Not May, Salem, Lever and Rivers. Crucial as those four backs are, the engine room has to do its job.

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2 hours ago, buck_nekkid said:

Thanks Rusty.  The stats back up reality in this case.  The trend towards mediocrity is underway, and needs to be arrested pronto!  

Aside from the backline this would appear to be the case in the last 3 matches especially BN.

1 hour ago, Kent said:

Thanks just confrms what i saw on a cold miserable afternoon

It was that cold Kent, at one point in the third i stood up quickly (for me) to cheer a goal and my right leg went into a cramp.  And that's without kicking any leather!  Too funny.  I've never felt as old as i did at that match and it sure felt like Melb of old to me which was a bit depressing.

35 minutes ago, Fanatique Demon said:

Thanks Rusty. If you just look at the stats you’d think Oliver, Petracca, Harmes - all rated in our top 8 for the day - played well. But I think the midfield let us down badly.

Perhaps with the way these stats are compiled we need the midfield to fill out the first four or five places. Not May, Salem, Lever and Rivers. Crucial as those four backs are, the engine room has to do its job.

FD i would compare the mids (or anyone's) season average score to their match day score and that will give you some idea, at least staistically, how they faired on the day.  Some better than others.  But as we know you can also look ok statistically on the day, or even not.ok, but still put in a bit of a shocker or maybe not (depending on the role being asked etc).

For example Olliver (way off), Harmes, JJ & Viney were either well below or slightly off (Sparrow)  their season average whereas Tracc was slightly above.  Does this mean Tracc played a solid game?

I'm not so sure in this case.  Ok maybe but was it one we would rate?  Did he cover off his direct opponents nicely when we lost possession?

Stats don't account for this perfectly and nor do these weighted scores.  I saw some pretty lazy accountability efforts from Tracc in our forward half on Saturday which allowed his nearest opponent (when ball was turned over) to just waltz out of our forward 50 with no pressure on at least two occasions.  With ball in hand he might have had a reasonable game which shows up in the weighted score but defensively he was pretty slack from what i witnessed.  Ok if he lands a tackle inside 50 or a few this will count towards his score.  But the method i use doesn't account for other pressure acts inside 50 (aside from one percenters) so this part is missed.  As was his lazy chasing efforts in our forward half or lack thereof on Saturday.

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Rnd 17, 2021 MCG - Power vs Demons

Disposals Per Goal  29.6
% In50s Goal 26.7
Conversion % 46.2

Significant improvement in all of the above forward indicators from last week's effort against GWS....

Disposals Per Goal  54.0
% In50s Goal 12.4
Conversion % 35.0

Tracc's equal best result in these tables for the year.  Same weighted score against the Tigers in Rnd 6.  Clarry bouncing back with another top of the table result.

May, Macca & Salem rounding out the top five.  Petty's best result for the season beating his 2.475 against the Lions in Rnd 12.

Still some work to do with the team score about 5.8% off the season average.

Player Score Rank
Clayton Oliver  5.900 1
Christian Petracca  5.125 2
Steven May  4.200 3
Tom McDonald # 3.875 4
Christian Salem  3.800 5
Ed Langdon  3.700 6
Michael Hibberd  3.200 7
James Jordon  3.025 8
Kysaiah Pickett  2.975 9
Angus Brayshaw  2.925 10
Harrison Petty  2.850 11
Jake Lever  2.775 12
Max Gawn # 2.625 13
James Harmes  2.500 14
Jayden Hunt  2.100 15
Bayley Fritsch  2.075 16
Charlie Spargo  2.050 17
Jack Viney  2.025 18
Luke Jackson # 1.675 19
Trent Rivers  1.600 20
Alex N-Bullen  1.550 21
Ben Brown  1.500 22
Team Score 64.05  
Top 6 26.60  
Bottom 6 10.40  

# Hit outs to advantage not captured

Stats courtesy of footywire.com

Edited by Rusty Nails
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7 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

Rnd 17, 2021 MCG - Power vs Demons

Disposals Per Goal  29.6
% In50s Goal 26.7
Conversion % 46.2

Significant improvement in all of the above forward indicators from last week's effort against GWS....

Disposals Per Goal  54.0
% In50s Goal 12.4
Conversion % 35.0

Tracc's equal best result in these tables for the year.  Same weighted score against the Tigers in Rnd 6.  Clarry bouncing back with another top of the table result.

May, Macca & Salem rounding out the top five.  Petty's best result for the season beating his 2.475 against the Lions in Rnd 12.

Still some work to do with the team score about 5.8% off the season average.

Player Score Rank
Clayton Oliver  5.900 1
Christian Petracca  5.125 2
Steven May  4.200 3
Tom McDonald # 3.875 4
Christian Salem  3.800 5
Ed Langdon  3.700 6
Michael Hibberd  3.200 7
James Jordon  3.025 8
Kysaiah Pickett  2.975 9
Angus Brayshaw  2.925 10
Harrison Petty  2.850 11
Jake Lever  2.775 12
Max Gawn # 2.625 13
James Harmes  2.500 14
Jayden Hunt  2.100 15
Bayley Fritsch  2.075 16
Charlie Spargo  2.050 17
Jack Viney  2.025 18
Luke Jackson # 1.675 19
Trent Rivers  1.600 20
Alex N-Bullen  1.550 21
Ben Brown  1.500 22
Team Score 64.05  
Top 6 26.60  
Bottom 6 10.40  

# Hit outs to advantage not captured

Stats courtesy of footywire.com

Thanks Rusty Love this weekly analysis

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Weighted Average Scores up to & including Rnd 17, 2021 vs 2019

Cheers Kent.

May slips into second spot for the first time this season neck and neck with Salem.  Viney out of the the top 10 dropping two places to 11th.  Leap frogged by JJ and Gus into 9th and 10th respectively.

Player 2021 Score 2021 Rank 2019 Score % Change vs 2019 2019 Rank Change in Rank vs 2019
C Oliver  5.334 1 4.643 14.88 1 0
Steven May  4.163 2 2.446 70.20 14 12
C Salem 4.153 3 3.658 13.53 3 0
C Petracca  3.955 4 2.616 51.19 10 6
Jake Lever  3.573 5 2.313 54.47 17 12
J Harmes 3.513 6 3.850 -8.75 2 -4
Max Gawn # 3.469 7 3.256 6.54 4 -3
Ed Langdon  3.412 8        
James Jordan 3.122 9        
A Brayshaw  3.069 10 2.894 6.05 6 -4
Jack Viney 3.003 11 3.068 -2.12 5 -6
T McDonald # 2.758 12 2.150 28.28 19 7
Jayden Hunt 2.532 13 1.958 29.32 22 9
Trent Rivers 2.520 14        
M Hibberd 2.488 15 2.124 17.14 20 5
M Brown* 2.475 16        
A Tomlinson 2.475 16        
L Jackson # 2.385 18        
K Pickett 2.363 19        
Oskar Baker* 2.325 20 1.714 35.65 29 9
Alex N-Bullen  2.284 21 1.984 15.12 21 0
Nathan Jones 2.214 22 2.711 -18.33 7 -15
Tom Sparrow 2.155 23 1.075 100.47 37 14
Bayley Fritsch  2.077 24 2.641 -21.36 9 -15
H Petty 2.000 25 1.905 4.99 24 -1
Charlie Spargo 1.988 26 1.375 44.58 35 9
J Melksham 1.984 27 1.931 2.74 23 -4
Neville Jetta  1.865 28 2.264 -17.62 18 -10
Ben Brown # 1.556 29        
S Weideman 1.055 30 1.818 -41.97 27 -3
K Chandler* 0.250 31        
Average Team Score - Top 22 67.59   59.62 13.35    

Hit outs to advantage not captured

* Only played one match not an average score

Stats courtesy of footywire.com

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Rnd 18, 2021 MCG - Demons vs Hawks

Our last three matches (team weighted score) have been on average about 5% up on our abysmal 2019 season average.  And about 6.8% off our season average so far this year (to Rnd 17).  That's a number that won't cut it in Finals.  Let's hope some of the boys are able to take it to another level in the last few rounds.

DE% of 66.7% against the Hawks is also way off the AFL average of approx 73%.  Again you will struggle against most teams with that sort of skill level.  Previous weeks it was 74% (Power) and 75.4% (Giants).  Against the Giants we again failed to make the most of our forward entries however.  So it shows it doesn't matter what you do up the ground.  If you aren't delivering / converting very well you're toast.

Spargo was our best ball user (outside of defenders) running at 81.8% efficiency with ANB our worst offender at 46.2%  Might have gone a little heavy on the engagement celebrations!

A few other stats worth noting ...

Turnover Kings ?  Clarry headed this up with a massive 10!  Followed by Viney 8, Lever JJ & Hibb on 6 each

Score Involvements ? Gus 9, Kozzie 8, AVB & Spargo on 7, Tracc & Fritta on 6

Tackles ?  Viney the stand out here with a massive 11.  Next best Clarry with 6.  Dropped off from there.

Marks inside 50 ? Fritta the main target here with 4.  I doubt we'll win too many big games (finals) with him as the main target but who knows.

Player Score Rank
C Oliver 4.800 1
C Petracca 4.700 2
Jack Viney 4.400 3
Jake Lever 4.350 4
C Salem 3.975 5
A Brayshaw 3.675 6
A Vandenberg 3.475 7
K Pickett 3.125 8
Max Gawn # 2.975 9
C Spargo 2.900 10
Steven May 2.850 11
Trent Rivers 2.500 12
Bayley Fritsch 2.300 13
Jayden Hunt 2.275 14
M Hibberd 2.250 15
Ed Langdon 2.225 16
H Petty 2.175 17
Ben Brown 2.025 18
James Jordon 1.875 19
T McDonald # 1.250 20
Alex N-Bullen 1.050 21
Luke Jackson # 1.000 22
Team Score 62.15  
Top 6 25.90  
Bottom 6 9.38  

# Hit outs to advantage not captured

Stats courtesy of footywire.com

Edited by Rusty Nails
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Weighted Average Scores up to & including Rnd 18, 2021 vs 2019

Dogga the worry in the last three matches dropping from a rank of 15 in round 15 to a lowly 21st now.  Given he had 15 games under his belt at Rnd 15 that's a fairly significant fall (statistically) with averages in play.

Do we risk bringing in Melk for Dogga who can hit up players inside 50 at times and also occasionally hit the scoreboard himself?  I like Dogga's work in the middle though!  We do need a player who can finish with that kick coming inside.  We're pretty ordinary in this area.  Max then plays almost a full game in the middle/around the ground with occasional chop out up forward from Macca.  Melk in for Dogga allows Melk and Kozzie to mix it up, sharing a role through the middle and HF?

Also, what happens when Harmes becomes available once more?  Who goes out assuming he is straight back in?  I would think he would come straight back given his form since coming in.  Does ANB miss for Harmes and AVB stays?

Player 2021 Score 2021 Rank 2019 Score % Change vs 2019 2019 Rank Change in Rank vs 2019
C Oliver  5.303 1 4.643 14.21 1 0
C Salem 4.142 2 3.658 13.23 3 1
Steven May  4.077 3 2.446 66.68 14 11
C Petracca  3.999 4 2.616 52.87 10 6
Jake Lever  3.619 5 2.313 56.46 17 12
J Harmes 3.513 6 3.850 -8.75 2 -4
A Vandenberg* 3.475 7        
Max Gawn # 3.440 8 3.256 5.65 4 -4
Ed Langdon  3.338 9        
Jack Viney 3.158 10 3.068 2.93 5 -5
A Brayshaw  3.104 11 2.894 7.26 6 -5
James Jordan 3.044 12        
T McDonald # 2.669 13 2.150 24.14 19 6
Trent Rivers 2.519 14        
Jayden Hunt 2.516 15 1.958 28.50 22 7
M Brown* 2.475 16        
A Tomlinson 2.475 16        
M Hibberd 2.469 18 2.124 16.24 20 2
K Pickett 2.407 19        
Oskar Baker* 2.325 20 1.714 35.65 29 9
L Jackson # 2.298 21        
Nathan Jones 2.214 22 2.711 -18.33 7 -15
Alex N-Bullen  2.212 23 1.984 11.49 21 -2
Tom Sparrow 2.155 24 1.075 100.47 37 13
Bayley Fritsch  2.091 25 2.641 -20.83 9 -16
Charlie Spargo 2.041 26 1.375 48.44 35 9
H Petty 2.016 27 1.905 5.83 24 -3
J Melksham 1.984 28 1.931 2.74 23 -5
Neville Jetta  1.865 29 2.264 -17.62 18 -11
Ben Brown # 1.650 30        
S Weideman 1.055 31 1.818 -41.97 27 -4
K Chandler* 0.250 32        

Hit outs to advantage not captured

* Only played one match not an average score

Stats courtesy of footywire.com

Edited by Rusty Nails
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On 7/18/2021 at 7:30 PM, buck_nekkid said:

I agree, we won’t win finals with that DE%, overall score or pressure.  Our ability to handle pressure and even get clean ball in the clear was way off.  Dogga is a worry, indeed.  Thanks for posting the data, Rusty 

No worries buck.  If we win the next two/three matches, IF, we just might be in a position to start managing a few of the boys that might need it and freshen them up for finals?  That's assuming a finals series is held with the continuous lockdown merry go round that's occurring.

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Rnd 19, 2021 MCG - Bulldogs vs Demons

The Hunters revert to the hunted once again (with a few exceptions).  Too meek and mild for 3 quarters tonight from most.  Some very poor match day coaching IMV also cost us dearly today.

Our worst Team Score for the season.  7.7% worse than the 2019 season average and a massive 19.8% off this season's average until last week!  Easily our worst score from the top 6 for the season by a fair margin also.  Probably Linger's worst game for the year as well (statistically). 

DE% of 60% is not going to win you many games either.  Yes it was wet, but same for both teams.  Doggies ran at 69%.

We over used the ball too much as well with 41 disposals per goal vs the Doggies 28.

Dogga was our best ball user (outside of defenders) running at 88.9% efficiency.  Tracc our worst at 35.5% overall.

A few other stats worth noting ...

Turnover Kings ?  Clarry leading for second week with a massive 11!  Followed by ANB 7, Tracc 6, Lingers & Hunt with 5 each.

Score Involvements ? Viney 7, Clarry & BB 6 with Hunt & Fritta 5 each.

Tackles ?  Viney leading for the second week in a row with 9.  Next best Kozzie & Harmes 8 with ANB & Tracc both on 7

Marks inside 50 ? BB the main target here with 4

Meters gained ? Hunt 548, Clarry 404, Tracc 390, Viney 371, Lever 362

Intercept Kings ? Lever 15, Hunt 9 with Clarry Rivers & Salem the next best on 6 each.

Player Score Rank
Jake Lever  4.675 1
C Oliver  4.225 2
Jack Viney  3.750 3
Jayden Hunt  3.175 4
J Harmes  2.950 5
Trent Rivers  2.950 5
C Salem  2.900 7
C Petracca  2.875 8
Alex N-Bullen  2.850 9
Steven May  2.725 10
Max Gawn # 2.575 11
K Pickett  2.125 12
A Brayshaw  2.050 13
M Hibberd  2.025 14
C Spargo  1.900 15
T McDonald # 1.850 16
J Jordon  1.775 17
L Jackson # 1.725 18
B Fritsch  1.700 19
Ben Brown  1.675 20
H Petty  1.350 21
Ed Langdon  1.200 22
Team Score 55.03  
Top 6 21.73  
Bottom 6 9.43  

# Hit outs to advantage not captured

Stats courtesy of footywire.com

Edited by Rusty Nails
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Weighted Average Scores up to & including Rnd 19, 2021 vs 2019

Player 2021 Score 2021 Rank 2019 Score % Change vs 2019 2019 Rank Change in Rank vs 2019
C Oliver  5.243 1 4.643 12.92 1 0
C Salem 4.069 2 3.448 18.01 3 1
Steven May  3.994 3 2.446 63.29 14 11
C Petracca  3.936 4 2.616 50.46 10 6
Jake Lever  3.678 5 2.313 59.01 17 12
A Vandenberg* 3.475 6        
J Harmes 3.461 7 3.850 -10.10 2 -5
Max Gawn # 3.392 8 3.256 4.18 4 -4
Jack Viney 3.218 9 3.068 4.89 5 -4
Ed Langdon  3.212 10        
A Brayshaw  3.046 11 2.894 5.25 6 -5
James Jordan 2.969 12        
T McDonald # 2.624 13 2.150 22.05 19 6
Jayden Hunt 2.554 14 1.958 30.44 22 8
Trent Rivers 2.543 15        
M Brown* 2.475 16        
A Tomlinson 2.475 16        
M Hibberd 2.438 18 2.124 14.78 20 2
K Pickett 2.392 19        
Oskar Baker* 2.325 20 1.714 35.65 29 9
L Jackson # 2.265 21        
Alex N-Bullen  2.247 22 1.984 13.26 21 -1
Nathan Jones 2.214 23 2.711 -18.33 7 -16
Tom Sparrow 2.155 24 1.075 100.47 37 13
Bayley Fritsch  2.068 25 2.641 -21.70 9 -16
Charlie Spargo 2.033 26 1.375 47.85 35 9
J Melksham 1.984 27 1.931 2.74 23 -4
H Petty 1.960 28 1.905 2.89 24 -4
Neville Jetta  1.865 29 2.264 -17.62 18 -11
Ben Brown # 1.654 30        
S Weideman 1.055 31 1.818 -41.97 27 -4
K Chandler* 0.250 32        
Average Team Score - Top 22 68.03   59.62 14.10    

Hit outs to advantage not captured

* Only played one match not an average score

Stats courtesy of footywire.com

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Pre Bye (Rnds 1-13) vs Post Bye (Rnds 15-19) Player Review, Season 2021

Given all the chatter about where we are at after the bye i thought i would review each player's accessible data (some anyway!)  and take a look at their (statistical) form pre vs post the bye.

All data based on averages.  Obviously better to have more data than less but sometimes it is also helpful just to compare a later block of matches to an earlier block as a rough indicator of where a player might be trending in terms of form.

I'll work my way down from highest jumper number to lowest as quickly as i can.

BB first up with data a little shakey here given only 3 games played both pre and post bye.  Some of the large percentage changes here reflect the small data set for BB.  5 games minimum either side feels a bit more robust but including BB here as part of this review for interests sake.  I won't be including anyone with less than three games either side of the bye here in case you are wondering why they might have been left out...

#50          B Brown Rnds     1 - 13 Rnds 15 - 19 % Change Post Bye
CP 5.67 5.67 0.0
UP 4.00 5.00 25.0
ED 5.33 5.67 6.3
DE% 61.13 51.83 -9.3
CM 1.00 1.33 33.3
Mi50 2.33 2.00 -14.3
1% 1.33 2.33 75.0
CL 0.00 0.00 0.0
R50 0.00 0.00 0.0
i50 0.67 3.00 350.0
T 0.67 1.67 150.0
Si 4.33 4.67 7.7
MG 172.33 227.00 31.7
TO 2.00 2.00 0.0
ITC 1.33 0.33 -75.0
T5 0.67 1.33 100.0
TOG% 77.33 81.00 4.7
G 1.67 1.00 -40.0

CP = Contested Possessions  UP = Uncontested Possessions  ED = Effective Disposals  DE% = Disposal Efficiency %  CM = Contested Mark

Mi50 = Marks inside 50  1% = One Percenter  CL = Clearances  R50 = Rebound 50  i50 = Inside 50s  T = Tackles  Si = Score Involvements

MG = Meters Gained  TO = Turnovers  ITC = Intercepts  T5 = Tackles inside 50  TOG% = Time on Ground %  G = Goals 

Stats courtesy of footywire.com

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Pre Bye (Rnds 1-13) vs Post Bye (Rnds 15-19) Player Review, Season 2021

Kozzie has played all matches this season.  13 matches Pre & 5 Post

#36          K Pickett Rnds    1 - 13 Rnds 15 - 19 % Change Post Bye
CP 6.62 5.00 -24.4
UP 6.54 5.40 -17.4
ED 7.92 6.40 -19.2
DE% 59.28 65.24 6.0
CM 0.15 0.20 30.0
Mi50 1.23 1.20 -2.5
1% 1.00 0.80 -20.0
CL 1.23 1.00 -18.8
R50 0.38 0.40 4.0
i50 2.54 1.80 -29.1
T 3.62 4.60 27.2
Si 5.62 5.00 -11.0
MG 240.15 187.00 -22.1
TO 2.15 2.20 2.1
ITC 1.62 1.20 -25.7
T5 1.62 1.80 11.4
TOG% 77.85 73.60 -4.2
G 1.54 1.60 4.0

CP = Contested Possessions  UP = Uncontested Possessions  ED = Effective Disposals  DE% = Disposal Efficiency %  CM = Contested Mark

Mi50 = Marks inside 50  1% = One Percenter  CL = Clearances  R50 = Rebound 50  i50 = Inside 50s  T = Tackles  Si = Score Involvements

MG = Meters Gained  TO = Turnovers  ITC = Intercepts  T5 = Tackles inside 50  TOG% = Time on Ground %  G = Goals 

Stats courtesy of footywire.com

Edited by Rusty Nails
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