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2021 Herald Sun Predictions



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56 minutes ago, whatwhatsaywhat said:

isn't the next federal election 2022?

I think he was referring to state government which is even further away. That's how much chance I think the first two have of getting up. 

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I do.  Mainly because of our list profile.  It's taken a number of years, but we're now the 5th oldest team and from a ''games played'' perspective we're 7th. Importantly, many of our best player

Melbourne will finish 3rd and win the Premiership 

I think a huge factor this season will be aerobic fitness. And it is a factor that works in our favor. We were super fit coming into last season. Unfortunately the 20 min quarters took away


2 hours ago, Neil Crompton said:

I wouldn't be so hot-to-trot on that bet if i were you Bombay, 'cause you know as sure as [censored] that if you do place that bet that the only game that North will win will be against us! So turn on the aircon and cool your jets.

Bottom 6 teams of last year were

Bombers, Suns, Hawks, Swans, Crows and North, going to be to interesting .

Should we lose to them, that alone would nearly be the end of Goodwin.

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1 minute ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

Bottom 6 teams of last year were

Bombers, Suns, Hawks, Swans, Crows and North, going to be to interesting .

Should we lose to them, that alone would nearly be the end of Goodwin.

1, 2 or all ?

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6 minutes ago, old dee said:

1, 2 or all ?

Sorry, North. 
 

Neil Crompton feared my bet might jinx us. I listed lasted seasons bottom six teams as I can’t see North beating any of them, hence the bet.

 

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1 hour ago, Pollyanna said:

Luke Jackson $26 for the Rising Star is attractive

Actually it is.

Presumably Rowell is some crazy odds (i'd be guessing even money?), but leaving that block head aside, Jackson is exactly the sort of player who is a good chance in the Rising Star. 

Unlike the stupid Brownlow its not purely a midfield award (though LJ will play some mid time, no doubt). And umpies are not the people voting. And like nik nat, LJ has the mix of attributes that stand out even in low possessions game the judges (a mix of footy journos and ex players IIRC) love.

Plus i am convinced he is going to be an absolute star.

I've convinced myself.   A pineapple on LJ it is.

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30 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

Sorry, North. 
 

Neil Crompton feared my bet might jinx us. I listed lasted seasons bottom six teams as I can’t see North beating any of them, hence the bet.

 

If we made finals but lost to North I would think he would be fairly safe. 

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5 minutes ago, old dee said:

If we made finals but lost to North I would think he would be fairly safe. 

Yes he probably would be but I like to think we could comfortably put all of last years bottom six away. 

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1 minute ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

Yes he probably would be but I like to think we could comfortably put all of last years bottom six away. 

I would like to as well BA but we are talking about the MFC remember with us the only certainty is uncertainty. 

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16 minutes ago, binman said:

Actually it is.

Presumably Rowell is some crazy odds (i'd be guessing even money?), but leaving that block head aside, Jackson is exactly the sort of player who is a good chance in the Rising Star. 

Unlike the stupid Brownlow its not purely a midfield award (though LJ will play some mid time, no doubt). And umpies are not the people voting. And like nik nat, LJ has the mix of attributes that stand out even in low possessions game the judges (a mix of footy journos and ex players IIRC) love.

Plus i am convinced he is going to be an absolute star.

I've convinced myself.   A pineapple on LJ it is.

Rowell is at $1.30! on Sportsbet

There are 14 players between him and Jackson and IMO none of them will have a better year than Jackson.

Injury to Rowell again and it's money for jam :)

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21 hours ago, faultydet said:

Does anyone seriously think we are a top 4 chance, or a flag threat?

9-12 is my thoughts.

I do.  Mainly because of our list profile.  It's taken a number of years, but we're now the 5th oldest team and from a ''games played'' perspective we're 7th.

Importantly, many of our best players are in their 20s and most are 23-25 and finally in their prime.

Petracca 25, Oliver 23, Lever 25, Langdon 25, Salem 25, Brayshaw 25, Fritsch 24, Weideman 23 and hopefully an improved Harmes 25.  Every one of those players should expect to finish top 10 in the B&F (except for Weideman-delayed start).  And May, Gawn, Viney and Ben Brown are still under 30 for all of 2021.

That's a healthy core.  We've also got 4 of the best 30-40 players in the competition imo, which is nothing to sneeze at. 

If we can get the added excitement that comes from emerging young players such as Jackson, Bowey, Laurie, Pickett, Petty, and a couple of others, then I don't see why we're not a finals team at a minimum and knocking on the door of the four.

I sometimes think supporters just assume other lists are better.  But when I look at most of the other top 8 teams, or aspiring top 8 teams, I see plenty of flaws.  We really should be good enough to be at the pointy end of the ladder.  The reason the media and opposition supporters don't have us there is the same reason you doubt us.  They don't trust us.  We're a flaky club.  And let's be honest, it's pretty hard to argue with.  Yes, we have to improve our ball movement, the delivery inside 50 and not relax our intensity during games (maturity).  Just about every other club has the same issues to varying degrees.  There's also a sameness to the midfield, but I reckon that can be sorted with quality coaching and better ball movement.

It's a long journey developing a unit ready to regularly compete in finals.  I reckon our list profile is finally perfectly placed to be thereabouts.  As long as they believe they're good enough, because that's the one area I'm not privvy to, i.e. their pysche.  Choco Williams and Yze couldn't have come along at a better time to help with those belief systems.  It's a long season and there'll be stumbles along the way, but Goodwin has no more excuses not to have this group playing finals (barring the standard horror year with injuries).

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1 hour ago, Pollyanna said:

Rowell is at $1.30! on Sportsbet

There are 14 players between him and Jackson and IMO none of them will have a better year than Jackson.

Injury to Rowell again and it's money for jam :)

1.30? I assume it is a pretty small pool at this stage, but that is ridiculous.

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19 minutes ago, Hannibal Inc. said:

I do.  Mainly because of our list profile.  It's taken a number of years, but we're now the 5th oldest team and from a ''games played'' perspective we're 7th.

Importantly, many of our best players are in their 20s and most are 23-25 and finally in their prime.

Petracca 25, Oliver 23, Lever 25, Langdon 25, Salem 25, Brayshaw 25, Fritsch 24, Weideman 23 and hopefully an improved Harmes 25.  Every one of those players should expect to finish top 10 in the B&F (except for Weideman-delayed start).  And May, Gawn, Viney and Ben Brown are still under 30 for all of 2021.

That's a healthy core.  We've also got 4 of the best 30-40 players in the competition imo, which is nothing to sneeze at. 

If we can get the added excitement that comes from emerging young players such as Jackson, Bowey, Laurie, Pickett, Petty, and a couple of others, then I don't see why we're not a finals team at a minimum and knocking on the door of the four.

I sometimes think supporters just assume other lists are better.  But when I look at most of the other top 8 teams, or aspiring top 8 teams, I see plenty of flaws.  We really should be good enough to be at the pointy end of the ladder.  The reason the media and opposition supporters don't have us there is the same reason you doubt us.  They don't trust us.  We're a flaky club.  And let's be honest, it's pretty hard to argue with.  Yes, we have to improve our ball movement, the delivery inside 50 and not relax our intensity during games (maturity).  Just about every other club has the same issues to varying degrees.  There's also a sameness to the midfield, but I reckon that can be sorted with quality coaching and better ball movement.

It's a long journey developing a unit ready to regularly compete in finals.  I reckon our list profile is finally perfectly placed to be thereabouts.  As long as they believe they're good enough, because that's the one area I'm not privvy to, i.e. their pysche.  Choco Williams and Yze couldn't have come along at a better time to help with those belief systems.  It's a long season and there'll be stumbles along the way, but Goodwin has no more excuses not to have this group playing finals (barring the standard horror year with injuries).

I largely agree with your analysis Hannibal. My only concern is that the club will select maybe 3/4 players in the first number of rounds who are already tried and tested and are either nearing their "use-by date" or simply haven't provided enough point of difference and consistent form in the last couple of years to warrant ongoing selection. We won't have the luxury of 5 weeks say to make the call and give some of the fresh faces a crack if we don't get off to a flyer. If we're still carrying extra luggage by round 5 then a high ladder finish is very unlikely.

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4 minutes ago, maximum bob said:

I largely agree with your analysis Hannibal. My only concern is that the club will select maybe 3/4 players in the first number of rounds who are already tried and tested and are either nearing their "use-by date" or simply haven't provided enough point of difference and consistent form in the last couple of years to warrant ongoing selection. We won't have the luxury of 5 weeks say to make the call and give some of the fresh faces a crack if we don't get off to a flyer. If we're still carrying extra luggage by round 5 then a high ladder finish is very unlikely.

Totally agree Max Bob we need to transition to youth NOW from Round1.

Those stats Of our list age  are totally misrepresentative of the  team which if we say made the GF this year.

We would only have IMO Gawn May Possibly Hibbo of the 30 yo brigade.

About 13/14 might be of the 23 - 27 Category ( considered in their prime ) and the excitement from my point of view would come FROM  Players in their first 3 years viz Sparrow Jordon Lockhart  Jacko Kossie Riv Laurie Bowey Rosman and say possibly Bradtke.

Grest blend of experience and youth.

Many will say why not so and so but trust me most are past their best snd It  has not been good enough and they have run out of opportunities unless that are in absolutely stellar form.

2021  could be our breakout year if we get on the front foot and give our youth a go from the start. That can learn on the job not try and turn the clock  back Like some of our noble warriors of the past.

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15 hours ago, Hannibal Inc. said:

I do.  Mainly because of our list profile.  It's taken a number of years, but we're now the 5th oldest team and from a ''games played'' perspective we're 7th.

Importantly, many of our best players are in their 20s and most are 23-25 and finally in their prime.

Petracca 25, Oliver 23, Lever 25, Langdon 25, Salem 25, Brayshaw 25, Fritsch 24, Weideman 23 and hopefully an improved Harmes 25.  Every one of those players should expect to finish top 10 in the B&F (except for Weideman-delayed start).  And May, Gawn, Viney and Ben Brown are still under 30 for all of 2021.

That's a healthy core.  We've also got 4 of the best 30-40 players in the competition imo, which is nothing to sneeze at. 

If we can get the added excitement that comes from emerging young players such as Jackson, Bowey, Laurie, Pickett, Petty, and a couple of others, then I don't see why we're not a finals team at a minimum and knocking on the door of the four.

I sometimes think supporters just assume other lists are better.  But when I look at most of the other top 8 teams, or aspiring top 8 teams, I see plenty of flaws.  We really should be good enough to be at the pointy end of the ladder.  The reason the media and opposition supporters don't have us there is the same reason you doubt us.  They don't trust us.  We're a flaky club.  And let's be honest, it's pretty hard to argue with.  Yes, we have to improve our ball movement, the delivery inside 50 and not relax our intensity during games (maturity).  Just about every other club has the same issues to varying degrees.  There's also a sameness to the midfield, but I reckon that can be sorted with quality coaching and better ball movement.

It's a long journey developing a unit ready to regularly compete in finals.  I reckon our list profile is finally perfectly placed to be thereabouts.  As long as they believe they're good enough, because that's the one area I'm not privvy to, i.e. their pysche.  Choco Williams and Yze couldn't have come along at a better time to help with those belief systems.  It's a long season and there'll be stumbles along the way, but Goodwin has no more excuses not to have this group playing finals (barring the standard horror year with injuries).

Excellent post. Agree with all of it. 

You are spot on about goodwin having no more excuses. There were certainly mitigating factors in 2019 and 2020 (injury and a pandemic respectively) but they have basically used up his get out of jail cards.

If we don't make finals, i'm convinced that no matter what extenuating circumstances there might be, he wont be there next year. Because, as you say where we are at in terms of the list, development etc anything less would be fail.

Agree about our list profile and the importance of having a core of key players in their prime age range. Added to the invaluable AFL experience that brings, that group is also at their peak fitness and strength  wise. Which will be critical this year with 30 minute quarters and 75 rotations.  

And credit where it is due, they have finally brought in some players in Rivers, Bowey and Laurie to help address our kicking problems. And in Kozzie and Jackson they have added the x factor every contender need.

I watched much more football last season than I ever have. Prior to last season i barely watched non Melbourne games, save for finals, the occasional big game and may be one or two quarters of random games. 

Watching so many games really reinforced your point about over rating the lists of other teams. There are lot of average players and a lot of players with rubbish kicking skills. 

We have top 4 list. And i think we are good chance of making top 4. Of course i wont be surprised if we don't. 

I will be surprised if we don't make the 8.  

 

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I say just write all the teams down on slips of paper and draw em out of a hat, from Wooden Spooners to 1st.  Overall accuracy % would probably be the same as most expert pre-season predictions....

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On 3/2/2021 at 1:02 PM, 58er said:

RU counting 2017 ? Not below average What is below our average?

And each year deserves to be assessed on its own.

Blind Harry the Miner can see our list and depth is 25% better and coaching at least that again. Also our game plan looked credible and much faster on Friday.

Oh sorry you can't See this development  Bandi let's just wait and see then. 

2017 when we missed finals?

2017 when we played 14th placed Collingwood in the last round and failed to lay a tackle in the first 20mins. And we played with zero intensity to lose the game and not make finals?

That 2017?

Pretty f***** average if you ask me.

And you do realise the rest of the comp doesn't stand still every year?

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Listening to SEN this morning and they were talking about probable/possible final 8 teams.

MFC weren't even mentioned. Freo and Bulldogs were the possibles with Lions, Tigers, Eagles Port Saints Cats GWS being more definite and perhaps the Pies.

 

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36 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Listening to SEN this morning and they were talking about probable/possible final 8 teams.

MFC weren't even mentioned. Freo and Bulldogs were the possibles with Lions, Tigers, Eagles Port Saints Cats GWS being more definite and perhaps the Pies.

 

the very fact that they think aints or gw$ in particular are 'definite' to make finals in 2021 sums sen up

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