PREGAME: Rd 01 vs Fremantle

[forever demons 1,801]

any training today

[JimmyGadson 3,455]

54 minutes ago, Axis of Bob said:

 

So your argument is that teams have figured out how to stop our clearances ..... by allowing us to win clearances? I'm sorry, but this is getting pretty silly now. 

EDIT*

They've figured out how to stop our clearance dominance.

Whether it's sharking Gawn's taps or simply pressuring us harder on that first possession/disposal, our clearance numbers are down and we are nowhere near as efficient or clean as we need to be.

And yes, opposition sides absolutely allow us to win first possession and sometimes the opportunity for clearance knowing full well that our downfall is that next possession/disposal. 

Edited March 15, 2021 by JimmyGadson

[Doug Reemer 897]

1 hour ago, DubDee said:

I think we’ll win. It won’t be pretty though and it will be close

God I hope you're right. Because we might get an underdone stkilda the next week!

[DeeSpencer 23,079]

9 minutes ago, Axis of Bob said:

 

So your argument is that teams have figured out how to stop our clearances ..... by allowing us to win clearances? I'm sorry, but this is getting pretty silly now. 

The stats and language is getting jumbled but Jimmy is right. Richmond worked out in 2017 that first possession means little. It’s quality not quantity.

For years we’ve won the ball, spat it out backwards or lobbed it up in the air on our half forwards heads.

The stat I’d like to know is Clearances that result in an effective kick inside 50 (ie to a forwards advantage or 50:50).

Every other clearance is just a negative because you’re either turning the ball over or kicking to a very dangerous spot (ie corner of the square). 

I don’t care if we win 1 in 5 centre clearances if the 1 we win lands on Fritsch’s chest and the 4 we lose get sat up for Lever to mark. 

 

[sisso 2,383]

Roos obsession with inside mids got our list to where it is today he just kept drafting more and more of them and Goodwin has continued it....I see now Roos is at North they've gone back to Dom Tyson: he's stuck in 2005 era footy

[Pickett2Jackson 3,904]

 

This might have been posted already, if so apologies.  Great stuff from the club, wonder if they will do it for every round?

[DeeSpencer 23,079]

We’re also getting in to the conundrum of Gawn.

Rucks don’t try to beat him. They defend space that makes him hit a certain way. He can’t leap like Nic Nat so he can’t hit 360. Then they assault our mids with heaps of pre-tackles.

He can smack it forward, but then it’s a contest at half forward with momentum of the players running away from goal.

He can pluck the ball from the air, but the other team catches on and tackles him and from hand to ball is a long way. 

There’s creative options:

1. Max learns to gather and spin and kick with his left to throw off tacklers.

2. Our on ballers hit the contest with more speed or dispose by punching the ball away - a second hit out that changes the shape of the contest 

3. Max hammers an opponent with the biggest possible knee to the chest etc

4. Max punches the ball 20m sideways to Oliver on a wing. Or backwards to Hunt etc

5. Max takes less centre bounces

[dazzledavey36 48,684]

15 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

Agree with all of that. But I have to assume no one wanted McDonald or Brayshaw on 700k a year. And we paid big overs for Tomlinson and even Langdon (yes Langdon cost too much IMO).

I wouldn’t have signed Ben Brown and have instead chucked another 20k at McKernan as depth, then put that money in to a outside runner. Cut Mitch Brown for another cheap as chips runner too. Retired Jones and Jetta to free up cash for a mid tier option.

In terms of improvement the best possible version of our backline has a lot of talent. The midfield can get twice as good if the lesser players support Gawn, Oliver and Tracc - whilst those 3 elite players combine individual brilliance with team play. I don’t know if Brown, Weid, Fritsch and role playing smalls are enough or will even work but for this year at least the biggest test is on Goodwin and Yze sorting the mids out. 

There will be a big list overhaul come season end.

Jones, Jetta, Hibberd, Mitch Brown, Vandenberg are already on my retired list.

That's 5 already gone, not even counting the delisted players as well. 

I was surprised we weren't as ruthless as I thought we should have at last year's trade period. Is it blind faith? Who knows.

But going into 2022 with this list raises a fee too many concerns for my liking.

[Axis of Bob 10,179]

 

14 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

I'm not sure you can discount me using averages and then use them yourself.

I was showing you the other side of the coin for the statistic you provided. If you rank a team in average clearances per game, then you need to know what the opposition did in order to know if you were better than them. The differential does this because it incorporates both sides of the coin. I offered up the opposing side of your 'average clearances' statistic by showing 'average opposition clearances' to demonstrate that you couldn't draw the conclusion you did from the data you had. If I had used our excellence in limiting 'opposition average clearances' as justification for a claim that we are the best stoppage team in the league, then you could justifiably have thrown my logic back at me.

18 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

2018: 1st for centre clearance differential.

2020: 12th for centre clearance differential.

I fully agree with you that there was a big drop off in centre clearances last season. I'm not entirely sure why, since we had 2 of the best centre clearance players in the league (Oliver and Viney) and a very good ruckman (although I'd suggest he is less dominant as a centre bounce ruckman than in a wrestle). I'd imagine it has a lot to do with how those players work together as well as the lack of impact of our second string centre square midfielders.

Of the top 3 teams, West Coast had 5 players with more than 1 centre clearances a game (4 mids and Nic Nat), Power 4 (3 mids and Lycett), Geelong 5 (4 mids and Stanley, of those that played more than 6 games) and Carlton 4 (3 mids and Pittonet .... although Cripps was number 1 in the AFL).

We had 3 .... Oliver, Viney and Petracca. After that we had Brayshaw and the Gawn, and then nobody else really playing a meaningful role. It was not dissimilar in 2019 and 2018, although our second unit was definitely bolstered by the likes of Jones, Harmes and Brayshaw. Lacking that depth through the middle means that we end up with some pretty average units in there trying to help Oliver or Viney. 

So, in short, I think the issue is probably our depth of centre square midfielders, more than anything. This bore out against the Dogs last week where we were smashed in clearances without Viney, Oliver and Brayshaw. 

[Spargonicus 421]

32 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

The stats and language is getting jumbled but Jimmy is right. Richmond worked out in 2017 that first possession means little. It’s quality not quantity.

For years we’ve won the ball, spat it out backwards or lobbed it up in the air on our half forwards heads.

The stat I’d like to know is Clearances that result in an effective kick inside 50 (ie to a forwards advantage or 50:50).

Every other clearance is just a negative because you’re either turning the ball over or kicking to a very dangerous spot (ie corner of the square). 

I don’t care if we win 1 in 5 centre clearances if the 1 we win lands on Fritsch’s chest and the 4 we lose get sat up for Lever to mark. 

 

Agree this would be a great, useful stat.

[binman 37,862]

1 hour ago, DeeSpencer said:

We’re also getting in to the conundrum of Gawn.

Rucks don’t try to beat him. They defend space that makes him hit a certain way. He can’t leap like Nic Nat so he can’t hit 360. Then they assault our mids with heaps of pre-tackles.

He can smack it forward, but then it’s a contest at half forward with momentum of the players running away from goal.

He can pluck the ball from the air, but the other team catches on and tackles him and from hand to ball is a long way. 

There’s creative options:

5. Max takes less centre bounces

Good post.

Was just about to make a similar point.

Gawn's key strength is his incredible marking. And he has incredible athleticism (for such a tall player) and fitness. 

The combination of these strengths mean he is a weapon we can use:

• down forward, for example the goal he set up for Fritter in the dogs game, which came after hard running and creating mismatch in the forward pocket, creating an easy mark 
• as the long option from the kick out - again as we saw against the dogs, a tactic I suspect we will use quite a bit (and were last year, but with extra distance possible from a kick out it becomes more offensive)
• dropping back inside 50 and either taking an intercept mark or blocking lanes and inside 50 options 
• at throw in, where his rucking is most effective because he can use his strength and his leap is not an issue - and his fitness means he can get to most of them

I have noted before that I reckon maxy is the best mark since Teasdale and Dempsey.  Iinterestingly both players played a similar role to the dot points above.  

Of the options you note above i reckon number 5 is the one they will end up employing.

Jackson will take more centre bounces, as was the case against the dogs, as he does have the sort of leap Nik Nat does. And rather than bench max, he can go forward, or back, depending on the circumstances. And continue to take throw ins.   

It is worth noting in this context that it is  easy to over rate the importance of centre square clearances.

I'm not saying they are not important, but even with the 6 6 6 change, statistically bugger all goals come from them (which to a degree goes to the point about the value of rucks). Territory yes. Goals no.

I'm more concerned about the goals we gift from turnovers than our centre square clearances. 

 

 

Edited March 15, 2021 by binman

[Doug Reemer 897]

9 minutes ago, binman said:

Good post.

Was just about to make a similar point.

Gawn's key strength is his incredible marking. And next is his incredible athleticism (for such a tall player) and fitness. 

The combination of these strengths mean he is a weapon we can use:

• down forward, for example the goal he set up for Fritter in the dogs game, which came after hard running and creating mismatch in the forward pocket, creating an easy mark) 
• as the long option from the kick out - again as we saw against the dogs, a tactic i suspect we will use quite a bit (and were last year, but with extra distance possible from a kick out it becomes more offensive)
• dropping back inside 50 and either taking an incercept mark or blocking lane and inside 50 option 
• at throw in,where his rucking is most effective because he can use his strength and his leap is not an issue - and his fitness means he can get to most of them

I have noted before that i reckon maxy is the best mark since Teasdale and Dempsey and interestingly both players played a similar role to the dot points above.  

Of the options you note above i reckon number 5 is the one the will end up employing. Jackson will take more centre bounces, as was the case against the dogs, as he does have the sort of leap Nik Nat does and rather than bench max, max can go forward, or back, depending on the circumstances. And continue to take throw ins.   

It is worth noting in this context that it is very easy to over rate the importance of centre square clearances. I'm not saying they are not important, but even with the 6 6 6 change, statistically bugger all goals come from them (which to a degree goes to the point about the value of rucks). Territory yes. Goals no.

I'm more concerned about the goals we gift from turnovers than our centre square clearances. 

 

 

I really hope they Rest Max Fwd this year and we kicks 15-20 goals and sets up many more!

His best year IMO was 2016. Dominated the Ruck and went forward and kicked goals.

[YesitwasaWin4theAges 5,790]

On 3/14/2021 at 11:26 AM, Pickett2Jackson said:

Would love to know what changed.  Really we were even WORSE last year than 2019 with Trac moving on to the ball?

2018 says it all.. took advantage of Maxs dominance and we made the prelim

Plus the two players coming off half back through the guts also benefited us.

Since 6-6-6 we haven't been the same.

[DemonLad5 1,637]

anyone know who trained today?

[old dee 22,818]

13 minutes ago, DemonLad5 said:

anyone know who trained today?

It’s secret!

[dl4e 5,582]

Club sent e-mail that reserved seat holder could get tickets between 3 to 5 pm on tuesday. I had a look at tickitek and they said club members and general reseved from 1.00 tuesday. Bit confusing.

[titan_uranus 22,232]

In relation to the (interesting) debate between @Lord Nev, @Axis of Bob and @JimmyGadson, I think it's fair to say the following:

1. We are good at accruing "clearances" as that term is defined by the statisticians;
2. We are generally better at accruing them than our opponents, and have been each year under Goodwin;
3. We are not as good at turning those "clearances" into scores, or wins, as we could/should be.

Part of this may be the way in which clearance is defined: it is "Credited to the player who has the first effective disposal in a chain that clears the stoppage area, or an ineffective kick or clanger kick that clears the stoppage area"

The point being the "clearance" stat doesn't take into account success of those clearances. It literally includes turnover kicks out of the stoppage area.

I think there is merit to Jimmy's argument that teams are content to let our inside mids grab the ball first and even take the first possession, because through Goodwin's era we have shown a tendency for that first disposal to not damage our opponent as much as it could/should.

I don't know where to find it, but I'd love to see a stat for scores from stoppages, and particularly scores from centre clearances. That may show, relative to other clubs, how good we are at converting our wins in the stoppages to scores. 

[hank 23]

19 minutes ago, dl4e said:

Club sent e-mail that reserved seat holder could get tickets between 3 to 5 pm on tuesday. I had a look at tickitek and they said club members and general reseved from 1.00 tuesday. Bit confusing.

Premium Club Members only from 1 to 3pm

[Deemania since 56 6,130]

4 hours ago, Dee Dee said:

Got level 3 in front of Grey Smith Bar, very handy if needed! So if we win I’ll need to use it and if we don’t I’ll definitely need to use it?!

Lucky people abound - and good onyer! Stuck in Adelaide for the weekend, the best I can do is book a Foxtel slot, which I have done, and hope like hell the power supply is reliable, this time. 'Carna Dees!

 

[Kent 2,578]

1 hour ago, Doug Reemer said:

I really hope they Rest Max Fwd this year and we kicks 15-20 goals and sets up many more!

His best year IMO was 2016. Dominated the Ruck and went forward and kicked goals.

Yeah watch  him compete with McDonald and spoil. The forward line is a complete shambles all flying for the ball nobody ever forward of the contest to rove s spill  Its a joke sometimes

[Lord Nev 13,511]

1 hour ago, Axis of Bob said:

I fully agree with you that there was a big drop off in centre clearances last season. I'm not entirely sure why, since we had 2 of the best centre clearance players in the league (Oliver and Viney) and a very good ruckman (although I'd suggest he is less dominant as a centre bounce ruckman than in a wrestle). I'd imagine it has a lot to do with how those players work together as well as the lack of impact of our second string centre square midfielders.

Of the top 3 teams, West Coast had 5 players with more than 1 centre clearances a game (4 mids and Nic Nat), Power 4 (3 mids and Lycett), Geelong 5 (4 mids and Stanley, of those that played more than 6 games) and Carlton 4 (3 mids and Pittonet .... although Cripps was number 1 in the AFL).

We had 3 .... Oliver, Viney and Petracca. After that we had Brayshaw and the Gawn, and then nobody else really playing a meaningful role. It was not dissimilar in 2019 and 2018, although our second unit was definitely bolstered by the likes of Jones, Harmes and Brayshaw. Lacking that depth through the middle means that we end up with some pretty average units in there trying to help Oliver or Viney. 

So, in short, I think the issue is probably our depth of centre square midfielders, more than anything. This bore out against the Dogs last week where we were smashed in clearances without Viney, Oliver and Brayshaw. 

All well argued mate. Appreciate the work you put into these posts btw.

I'm not sure I 100% agree we lack depth for inside mids though. It would be a pretty rare occasion during the season where we would be missing all of Viney, Oliver and Brayshaw. Take 3 of the 4 top mids out of any team and they'll struggle. I think a list of Viney, Oliver, Petracca, Brayshaw, Harmes, Melksham, Jones and Sparrow is a pretty decent inside mid lineup on paper, but as they say, the game isn't played on paper, and the base of my argument is about the structures and strategies, not the players.

Add Gawn and Jackson to the above list and we should have a pretty formidable midfield. Should. There are obvious problems though, some of which don't seem to be improving (crowding the ball, forward delivery, tackling), and some which are seemingly getting worse (centre clearances, defensive running by forwards and mids).

 

[Lord Nev 13,511]

38 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

In relation to the (interesting) debate between @Lord Nev, @Axis of Bob and @JimmyGadson, I think it's fair to say the following:

1. We are good at accruing "clearances" as that term is defined by the statisticians;
2. We are generally better at accruing them than our opponents, and have been each year under Goodwin;
3. We are not as good at turning those "clearances" into scores, or wins, as we could/should be.

Part of this may be the way in which clearance is defined: it is "Credited to the player who has the first effective disposal in a chain that clears the stoppage area, or an ineffective kick or clanger kick that clears the stoppage area"

The point being the "clearance" stat doesn't take into account success of those clearances. It literally includes turnover kicks out of the stoppage area.

I think there is merit to Jimmy's argument that teams are content to let our inside mids grab the ball first and even take the first possession, because through Goodwin's era we have shown a tendency for that first disposal to not damage our opponent as much as it could/should.

I don't know where to find it, but I'd love to see a stat for scores from stoppages, and particularly scores from centre clearances. That may show, relative to other clubs, how good we are at converting our wins in the stoppages to scores. 

For mine, I'm trying to be clear about how ineffective we are at centre clearances.

This is not an area we're good at.

 

[Diamond_Jim 11,693]

could someone explain why I have to download Google wallet to use the ticketek app which is the only way of presenting your phone ticket.

Also what info does Google wallet rquire

thanks

Edited March 15, 2021 by Diamond_Jim

[praha 10,270]

14 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

could someone explain why I have to download Google wallet to use the ticketek app which is the only way of presenting your phone ticket.

Also what info does Google wallet rquire

thanks

eh? you should get your ticket emailed to you to open in a browser. screenshot the browser window and then just open up the image when needed. Worked for me last week at Marvel. Definitely didn't need to download any further apps.

[Diamond_Jim 11,693]

22 minutes ago, praha said:

eh? you should get your ticket emailed to you to open in a browser. screenshot the browser window and then just open up the image when needed. Worked for me last week at Marvel. Definitely didn't need to download any further apps.

If you want to download the ticket to your phone and thus avoid the need for internet on entry the app requires  Google wallet.

Just removes uncertainty if you hit a wifi blackspot

taking a screen shot could be a decent work around but I'm sick of Ticketek and their processes.

Edited March 15, 2021 by Diamond_Jim