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2020 Phantom Drafts & Rankings



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For the first time since 2004, where I predicted Melbourne taking Matthew Bate and Jordan Russell, I've decided to post a return of the Goodoil Phantom Draft.  Here is the first round, with the rest t

Here's my updated phantom draft from last week, with round 3 as well now. I've still got us taking the same players, as well as Winder in the 3rd round. I'll have a short writeup of our picks below ph

Thanks to both Gawndog98 and Goodoil for your bravery in committing to a phantom draft.  I like Goodoil’s lateral thinking on the potential pick trades. The one for Collingwood is particularly interes

32 minutes ago, Nascent said:

Anyone have access to Herald Sun's phantom draft?

22. Carroll, 23. O'Driscoll. But they've also got Laurie lasting until 25 and I can't see us overlooking him.

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With all these phantom drafts out these are a few things I've noticed to watch for tomorrow night:

* If Cook gets past Fremantle's pick he appears a fair chance to get to our picks

* If Laurie gets through GWS' picks he appears a good chance to get to our picks

* If Macrae gets past Adelaide's pick 9 he seems a good chance to slide far however no one has him getting to our picks, but most seem to have him getting close, could we trade up? do Richmond still consider trading their pick if Macrae is on the board?

* Holmes seems unlikely to be available at pick 28, Richmond, St Kilda, and Hawthorn all very interested

* If Hawks are very interested in Holmes would they consider not matching a bid on Downie? who do they rate higher?

* If Hawks bid on Campbell at pick 4 watch to see if Sydney will match a bid for Gulden at our picks, they will go into draft deficit next year if they do

* bit of interest in Bowey if we keep our second round pick and Holmes is off the board

* A few scenarios had me thinking (Adelaide and GWS swapping picks is one) could Perkins slide all the way through to our picks? 

* nearly ever single phantom draft has us taking Carroll which is very exciting, but you never know still keeping my fingers crossed

Edited by Gawndog98
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I wonder if we could do a deal for Collingwoods pick 14 or 16 if they don't use them to move up the board.

18 and 28 for 14 and a future 3rd.

Gives us the extra future currency we're after and hopefully puts us in a position to land Macrae and still hold onto 19.

Also gives Collingwood more collateral to either match a bid for McInnes or take to the draft since their next pick after 16 is 65.

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7 minutes ago, roy11 said:

 

 

Wonder if this will scare off a few suitors

He'll slide a few picks due to that, but still well out of our reach. He looks a talent. He's the one under age player I saw live last year that looked to have real x factor about him. He'll become that prototype mid-forward like Dusty, Danger, Trac etc if he can get his body conditioning right. He has the explosiveness and skill.

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Interstate teams in his range (5-15): Gold Coast, GWS, Adelaide, Fremantle.

It's not the most attractive group of clubs, which is probably more the issue. But, still, it's not the best way to start an AFL career. It certainly isn't endearing.

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Bailey Smith claimed some kind of anxiety issue would prevent him playing interstate.

The King brothers said buyer beware.

Gold Coast overlooked Smith but took the chance on Ben King. The Suns gave him a whole stack of cash to stay but he did stay.

Fair play to the kid, can’t blame him for being honest. Not sure it helps his cause tho. The only true way to guarantee you stay home is to not enter the draft 

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14 hours ago, Nascent said:

Also what's happened to Seamus Mitchell? Doesn't seem to be factored into any phantoms drafts that I can see and doesn't rate a mention in Cal's whispers for later selections among any clubs. Slipped back into late/rookie territory?

Yes I had him in the late/rookie pick position. 

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Well took me until draft day to get excited about the draft, better late than never I say.  Tonight we will have a few new kids on the list...    with the Victorians not playing all year this is the perfect draft to steal some untapped talent thats flown under the radar.

Its Jason Taylor time baby!

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1 hour ago, Axis of Bob said:

Interstate teams in his range (5-15): Gold Coast, GWS, Adelaide, Fremantle.

It's not the most attractive group of clubs, which is probably more the issue. But, still, it's not the best way to start an AFL career. It certainly isn't endearing.

I expext the Suns will be taking Will Phillips, Crows to take best available from Bruhn, Cook, Powell or Henry with Freo taking Chapman

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18 hours ago, adonski said:

"Looking for outside run, creative players, good decision makers, good ball users"

That’s Archie Perkins, Finlay Macrae, Brayden Cook (all likely to be gone though unless we trade up picks somehow), Errol Gulden <swans>, Jack Carroll, Caleb Poulter, Bailey Laurie , Connor Stone, Ryan Angwin, Jake Bowey. 

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One thing I'm concerned about is if Essendon move down the order in a trade with Collingwood say its 8 for 16 and a future first. Essendon like Carroll but won't take him with one of their top 10 picks but could be a chance to take him if they moved down the order. They do like Macrae as well though so they could take him if he was still on the board if they moved down the order.

Something I think we want to happen is Giants and Crows to exchange picks (9 and 22 for 13 and 15), because then Laurie will be a good chance to be available at our pick. There is also talk this morning that Essendon is a chance to take Powell with one of their top 10 picks, this would have a flow on effect of Bruhn sliding because I think North goes Perkins. Bruhn would probably get through to Giants pick 15 where they like him, causing Laurie to slide to us. Tigers also like Bruhn which could cause Macrae to slide to us too.

I'm still holding out hope for Macrae to make it to our pick, there's a lot of teams that like Pedlar ahead of us including the Tigers, if he slots in ahead of our pick might mean Macrae slips that one extra spot to us.

 

 

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Does this kid have an attitude problem?  Wants to play AFL but only on his terms?

Archie Perkins:  “I feel like it would impact me too much and I don’t think it would be in their best interests as a footy club to have me there because I wouldn’t be 100 per cent with it, and couldn’t really commit myself 100 per cent..."

i-wanted-to-be-honest-draft-prospect-tells-afl-clubs-he-wants-to-stay-in-victoria

Given that the only Vic clubs who have picks in his predicted draft range (5-15) are North, Ess and Coll one could be forgiven for thinking he wants to play for one of the latter two.  If karma is against him he may just get drafted by North!

Interesting last para:  "The AFL, which has anti-tampering rules, has been contacted for official comment".  Expect to hear crickets from them.  But it does set a poor precedent if kids can control the drafting after contracting to go to the club that selects them, anywhere in Australia.

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6 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

That’s Archie Perkins, Finlay Macrae, Brayden Cook (all likely to be gone though unless we trade up picks somehow), Errol Gulden <swans>, Jack Carroll, Caleb Poulter, Bailey Laurie , Connor Stone, Ryan Angwin, Jake Bowey. 

Having a guess at what we might pick based on needs - obviously there's limitations when trying to fit some of these player in particular boxes.  And of course there's the live trading of picks which I haven't taken into account.

I think if any of the players in group 1 (wing / outside midfielders) are available we will select them with our first two picks but it's unlikely that more than one will still be there at our pick (and potentially none will be)

Once all from group 1 are gone, I think we will try to find someone to help out Kozzie with forward pressure and improve inside f50 entry (essentially Spargo's position but maybe also Hunt / ANB).  There seem to be a number of great options here - most likely one or two would be gone.

Then there are a bunch of players that could be great value but don't exactly address a need eg an inside mid with explosive speed / excellent skills.  Or a key forward that will take time to develop / the greatest player ever that JT has hidden through covid.

I don't know a lot about Max Holmes but it sounds as if we are very keen on him.  By the sound of things he might not last to our third pick (but who really knows), but if we picked him with our second, then small forward types like Bowey / Winder are still likely to be there for our third.

So i'm thinking it might be something like:

1. Cook / Carroll

2. Holmes

3. Bowey / Winder

 

Group 1 - Winger / Outside midfielder

- Finlay Macrae - classy, composure, evasive - everything we need

- Archie Perkins - explosive, x factor, run and carry, inside 50 kicking

- Jack Carroll - classy LF, evasive,  inside / outside

- Brayden Cook - tall speedy winger / half forward with goof aerial ability

 

Group 2 - Small forward  / outside midfielder

- Errol Gulden (Syd Academy) - speed, agility, crumbing, precise kicking inside f50

- Bailey Laurie - speed, agility & evasion, lowers eyes before entering f50

- Blake Coleman (Bris Academy) - speedy, high pressure, classy skills

- Jake Bowey - speed, agility, evasiveness

- Isiah Winder - athletic, good composure and skills

 

Group 3 - Other / Smokies

- Caleb Poulter - tall explosive midfielder

- Max Holmes - speed & endurance

- Connor Stone - medium forward with tricks, run and carry

- Sam Berry - aggressive inside midfielder with great acceleration and precise kick

- Ryan Angwin - competitive contested utility with great endurance

- Kaine Baldwin - dominant KPF that has suffered 2 ACLs

- Fraser Rosman - Key position size player with freak speed and agility

- Jackson Callow - key position utility who excels in one on one marking

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16 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Does this kid have an attitude problem?  Wants to play AFL but only on his terms?

Archie Perkins:  “I feel like it would impact me too much and I don’t think it would be in their best interests as a footy club to have me there because I wouldn’t be 100 per cent with it, and couldn’t really commit myself 100 per cent..."

i-wanted-to-be-honest-draft-prospect-tells-afl-clubs-he-wants-to-stay-in-victoria

Given that the only Vic clubs who have picks in his predicted draft range (5-15) are North, Ess and Coll one could be forgiven for thinking he wants to play for one of the latter two.  If karma is against him he may just get drafted by North!

Interesting last para:  "The AFL, which has anti-tampering rules, has been contacted for official comment".  Expect to hear crickets from them.  But it does set a poor precedent if kids can control the drafting after contracting to go to the club that selects them, anywhere in Australia.

This sort of thing happens every year, prospects usually aren't open enough to admit this outside of the club interviews.

Rumour floating around that Perkins isn't necessarily all in on footy and his movement through the talent pathway is more driven by family rather than inherent attachment to the game. Not necessarily unique, but possibly provides some context.

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2 hours ago, Axis of Bob said:

Interstate teams in his range (5-15): Gold Coast, GWS, Adelaide, Fremantle.

It's not the most attractive group of clubs, which is probably more the issue. But, still, it's not the best way to start an AFL career. It certainly isn't endearing.

I see it differently. If I was a recruiter at an interstate club I'd much rather have that information right up front.

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11 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Does this kid have an attitude problem?  Wants to play AFL but only on his terms?

Archie Perkins:  “I feel like it would impact me too much and I don’t think it would be in their best interests as a footy club to have me there because I wouldn’t be 100 per cent with it, and couldn’t really commit myself 100 per cent..."

i-wanted-to-be-honest-draft-prospect-tells-afl-clubs-he-wants-to-stay-in-victoria

Given that the only Vic clubs who have picks in his predicted draft range (5-15) are North, Ess and Coll one could be forgiven for thinking he wants to play for one of the latter two.  If karma is against him he may just get drafted by North!

Interesting last para:  "The AFL, which has anti-tampering rules, has been contacted for official comment".  Expect to hear crickets from them.  But it does set a poor precedent if kids can control the drafting after contracting to go to the club that selects them, anywhere in Australia.

I think in many ways it's best to respect the honesty and openness and he's far from the first to make his desires known to recruiters.

I've seen 2 other draftees talk about their own wellbeing, it's a whole new world for kids out there these days in terms of mental health education. Whether it's science or pseudo science that they are being peddled I'm not so sure.

The question I'd ask him is 'why' does he feel that way? Is it because of a girlfriend? Is it because he has a really close relationship with his family? Oli Florent was desperate to stay in Victoria because his father had passed away, the Swans drafted him anyway and worked with the family. Is it because he likes to muck around with his Brighton Grammar school mates and really he's unaware just how quickly he'll make new friends with 40+ team mates at a club? Or has he had mental health struggles in the past and is he aware of the value of his support system and not afraid to say so?

The clubs will know more details and they'll be in a far better position to judge. The reality is the AFL have stuffed with the draft so much with all these academy selections and so on that it's hardly in a position to criticise a kid for being honest. About a third of this draft class gets to know exactly where they are going way before the draft, why should Archie suffer?

 

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6 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

I think in many ways it's best to respect the honesty and openness and he's far from the first to make his desires known to recruiters.

I've seen 2 other draftees talk about their own wellbeing, it's a whole new world for kids out there these days in terms of mental health education. Whether it's science or pseudo science that they are being peddled I'm not so sure.

The question I'd ask him is 'why' does he feel that way? Is it because of a girlfriend? Is it because he has a really close relationship with his family? Oli Florent was desperate to stay in Victoria because his father had passed away, the Swans drafted him anyway and worked with the family. Is it because he likes to muck around with his Brighton Grammar school mates and really he's unaware just how quickly he'll make new friends with 40+ team mates at a club? Or has he had mental health struggles in the past and is he aware of the value of his support system and not afraid to say so?

The clubs will know more details and they'll be in a far better position to judge. The reality is the AFL have stuffed with the draft so much with all these academy selections and so on that it's hardly in a position to criticise a kid for being honest. About a third of this draft class gets to know exactly where they are going way before the draft, why should Archie suffer?

 

I'm not trying to stereotype here, (okay maybe I am) but this is becoming a theme with private school boys..

 

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1 hour ago, deelusions from afar said:

Having a guess at what we might pick based on needs - obviously there's limitations when trying to fit some of these player in particular boxes.  And of course there's the live trading of picks which I haven't taken into account.

I think if any of the players in group 1 (wing / outside midfielders) are available we will select them with our first two picks but it's unlikely that more than one will still be there at our pick (and potentially none will be)

Once all from group 1 are gone, I think we will try to find someone to help out Kozzie with forward pressure and improve inside f50 entry (essentially Spargo's position but maybe also Hunt / ANB).  There seem to be a number of great options here - most likely one or two would be gone.

Then there are a bunch of players that could be great value but don't exactly address a need eg an inside mid with explosive speed / excellent skills.  Or a key forward that will take time to develop / the greatest player ever that JT has hidden through covid.

I don't know a lot about Max Holmes but it sounds as if we are very keen on him.  By the sound of things he might not last to our third pick (but who really knows), but if we picked him with our second, then small forward types like Bowey / Winder are still likely to be there for our third.

So i'm thinking it might be something like:

1. Cook / Carroll

2. Holmes

3. Bowey / Winder

 

Group 1 - Winger / Outside midfielder

- Finlay Macrae - classy, composure, evasive - everything we need

- Archie Perkins - explosive, x factor, run and carry, inside 50 kicking

- Jack Carroll - classy LF, evasive,  inside / outside

- Brayden Cook - tall speedy winger / half forward with goof aerial ability

 

Group 2 - Small forward  / outside midfielder

- Errol Gulden (Syd Academy) - speed, agility, crumbing, precise kicking inside f50

- Bailey Laurie - speed, agility & evasion, lowers eyes before entering f50

- Blake Coleman (Bris Academy) - speedy, high pressure, classy skills

- Jake Bowey - speed, agility, evasiveness

- Isiah Winder - athletic, good composure and skills

 

Group 3 - Other / Smokies

- Caleb Poulter - tall explosive midfielder

- Max Holmes - speed & endurance

- Connor Stone - medium forward with tricks, run and carry

- Sam Berry - aggressive inside midfielder with great acceleration and precise kick

- Ryan Angwin - competitive contested utility with great endurance

- Kaine Baldwin - dominant KPF that has suffered 2 ACLs

- Fraser Rosman - Key position size player with freak speed and agility

- Jackson Callow - key position utility who excels in one on one marking

Great write up, I think the way the order stands at the moment the most probable outcome is Carroll, Holmes, Bowey. It would take trades or selection surprises tonight for players like Macrae, Laurie, Cook to slip through or for us to trade up.

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2 hours ago, Whispering_Jack said:

Chris Doerre's (Knightmare) Phantom Draft.

Every club, every pick: ESPN's full AFL phantom draft

His views - don't always match the other "experts" in the media but he always puts a lot of thought into his work. 

I’ve had a closer look and I would be pretty happy with his result for the MFC.

However, I’m interested that he has Adelaide bidding on Reef McInnes and Collingwood not matching the bid. After their troubles over trading, I’m not sure that they would give up a well credentialed draft prospect who is tied to them under the NGA. I think it likely that the Pies would trade picks strategically to cover such a situation. 

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