2020 Phantom Drafts & Rankings

[Nascent 7,200]

A little bit concerning that his listed weakness on draft central are cleanliness at ground level and defensive pressure. Should be his bread and butter as a small forward. But how much can we actually read into these assessments with a year out of the game and us arm chair experts not getting a 3minute highlight clip to judge him off. Taylor and co will have done their homework and if we select him I'll back him in rather than [censored] about not selecting a different player I also know nothing about. 

[WERRIDEE 5,198]

On 11/23/2020 at 3:23 PM, Gawndog98 said:

Here's my updated phantom draft from last week, with round 3 as well now. I've still got us taking the same players, as well as Winder in the 3rd round. I'll have a short writeup of our picks below phantom draft. I'll be making more updates to it as it gets closer to the draft.
 
ROUND ONE

1.     Adelaide – Logan MacDonald (WA) – key forward
2.     Western Bulldogs (NGA) – Jamarra Ugle-Hagain (VIC) – key forward
3.     North Melbourne – Elijah Hollands (VIC) – balanced midfielder/general forward
4.     Sydney – Denver Grainger-Barrass (WA) – key defender
5.     Hawthorn – Riley Thilthorpe (SA) – key forward/ruck
6.     Gold coast – Will Phillips (VIC) – inside midfielder
7.     Essendon – Tanner Bruhn (VIC) – inside midfielder
8.     Sydney (NGA) – Braeden Campbell (NSW) – balanced midfielder/small forward
9.     Essendon – Archie Perkins (VIC) – balanced midfielder/general forward
10.  Essendon – Zac Reid (VIC) – key defender
11.  Port Adelaide (NGA) – Lachie Jones (SA) – general defender
12.  Adelaide – Heath Chapman (WA) – general defender
13.  GWS – Nik Cox (VIC) – key defender/utility 
14.  North Melbourne – Oliver Henry (VIC) – medium utility 
15.  Fremantle – Finlay Macrae (VIC) – balanced midfielder
16.  GWS – Nathan O’Driscoll (WA) – balanced midfielder/general defender
17.  Collingwood – Brayden Cook (SA) – outside midfielder/general forward
18.  Collingwood (NGA) – Reef McInnes (VIC) – inside midfielder/general forward
19.  GWS – Caleb Poulter (SA) – balanced midfielder/general forward
20.  Richmond – Tom Powell (SA) – inside midfielder
21.  Melbourne – Jack Carroll (WA) – balanced midfielder/general defender
22.  Brisbane (NGA) – Blake Coleman (QL) – small forward
23.  Sydney (NGA) – Errol Gulden (NSW) – small forward/balanced midfielder
24.  Melbourne – Bailey Laurie (VIC) – small forward/balanced midfielder
25.  Hawthorn (NGA) – Connor Downie (VIC) – outside midfielder/general defender
26.  GWS – Jake Bowey (VIC) – small forward/outside midfielder
27.  St Kilda – Zane Trew (WA) – inside midfielder

ROUND TWO 

28.  Adelaide – Zavier Maher (VIC) – inside midfielder
29.  Adelaide – Zac Dumensy (SA) – outside midfielder/general defender
30.  Gold coast – PASS 
31.  Fremantle (NGA) – Brandon Walker (WA) – general defender
32.  Melbourne – Kaine Baldwin (SA) – key forward
33.  GWS – Eddie Ford (VIC) – general forward/inside midfielder
34.  North Melbourne – Sam Berry (VIC) – inside midfielder
35.  Fremantle (NGA) – Joel Western (WA) – small forward
36.  Essendon (NGA) – Cody Brand (VIC) – key defender
37.  Richmond – Jackson Callow (TAS) – key forward
38.  Gold coast – PASS 
39.  Carlton – Corey Durdin (SA) – small forward
40.  North Melbourne – Jack Ginnivan (VIC) – small forward
41.  Adelaide (NGA) – Tariek Newchurch (SA) – small forward 

ROUND THREE 

42.  Hawthorn – Max Heath (VIC) - ruck
43.  Hawthorn – Luke Edwards (SA) – general defender/balanced midfielder
44.  Carlton – Henry Walsh (VIC) - ruck
45.  Hawthorn – Connor Stone (VIC) – general forward
46.  Richmond (F/S) – Maurice Rioli Jnr (NT) – small forward
47.  Melbourne – Isiah Winder (WA) – small forward/utility 
48.  Geelong – Shannon Neale (WA) - ruck
49.  GWS - PASS
50.  Brisbane – Liam Kolar (VIC) – key forward/wing
51.  Western Bulldogs – Charlie Lazarro (VIC) – small forward/inside midfielder
52.  Port Adelaide – Chris Walker (WA) – medium forward
 
Pick 21 - Jack Carroll

Carroll is a classy 187cm inside/outside midfielder or half back who has been likened to Hugh McCluggage in the way he plays. It's probably 50/50 whether he gets to our first pick but I'm fairly confident the guys in the picks above suit their teams needs. 

Nevertheless Carroll would be an incredible get at our first pick who has pace (3.018 20m sprint), has good agility (8.67 seconds agility test), can jump (88cm vertical leap), and possess' a lethal left foot kick. He also is a very courageous player who isn't afraid to use his good overhead marking to go back with the flight of the ball, or crash open a pack despite his light frame of 76kg. He also doesn't turn 18 until December so there is plenty of room for development. Next year he'd be a fair chance to slot in on a half back flank in round 1 next to his ex East Fremantle teammate Rivers (also played footy with Jacko too), which his footy smarts, ball use, and physical tools should allow him to play early on.

Pick 24 - Bailey Laurie

I have us looking for a small forward with our second bid where we'd bid on Coleman from Brisbane and Gulden from Sydney but eventually ending up with 179cm high half forward Bailey Laurie who has been likened to Toby Greene or Zak Butters in the way he plays. He isn't overly explosive for a small forward but Laurie carves up the opposition with ball use, agility, smarts, and decision making. Laurie has the stamina (6:24 2km time trial) to work high up the ground where he always makes the best decision going inside 50, whether that's hitting up a lead or going for goal himself. Laurie has a tendency of knowing where the ball is going to drop in marking contests, and is a keen tackler when the ball is on the ground where he uses his work rate to harass defenders. Laurie likely would've spent a lot of time in the midfield this year which he is prolific by hand and foot and has great smarts around stoppages. 

There is a very high chance that Laurie will be available at one of our first 2 picks, and potentially at our second round pick. Will be another challenger for a round 1 spot where he will be competing with Spargo for that second small forward spot.

Pick 32 - Kaine Baldwin

This may be a little higher than some people expect but I think it's highly unlikely Baldwin be available at our next pick. On talent Baldwin is top 10 in this year draft which 2 years ago he was said to be the best key forward in this draft, however since he has done 2 ACL's on the same knee so there is obvious concerns about how his body will hold up. As a player Baldwin is a 193cm CHF who plays like Jesse Hogan (prime Hogan), but I liken him to Mitch Georgiadies who was in a similar situation to him at last years draft. Baldwin's best asset is his contested marking where he is very crafty 1v1 and can take towering packs marks. He also has an enormous engine which he uses at CHF to work really high up the ground where he gets involved in a lot of link up play and is a great kick going inside 50. He's very clean at ground level and was very quick off the mark pre-injury. Baldwin will likely go somewhere in the second round due to their being not much depth for key position players in this draft. He is the definition of a high risk/high reward player who will be given time to get his body right and develop which he can then look to break into the team when guys like Ben Brown, Tom MacDonald, and Max Gawn (Jackson moving into the ruck) get older.

Pick 47 - Isiah Winder

I have us biding on Rioli Jnr but then taking the 180cm Isiah Winder who plays like Sydney Stack. Winder who is touted to go in the third round could be one of the biggest steals of the draft which he has senior experience for Peel Thunder and boasts an enormous amount of X-Factor. Winder finished top 5 in every single test at the WA Combine (92cm vertical jump, 2.873 seconds 20m sprint, 8.18 seconds agility test) and is one of the best kicks in this years draft which he accurately weights his passes to his targets whether that is a spear or a chip pass. Winder can also play all around the ground either as a small/medium forward or defender, or in the midfield as well. Winder has all the talent of a first rounder but is projected to go later due to his lack of defensive work/appearing to become disinterested when the ball isn't near him at times. Winder would be a big round 1 bolter next year which I think he would be best suited to step in as a small/medium defender where he'd provide excellent ball use and speed off half back.

Overall

With our 4 picks we've added 3 small/medium runners with good pace and excellent ball use which is something we desperately need, as well as a long term key forward. All three of Carroll, Laurie, and Winder would be ready to play round 1 and could have an immediate impact. Funnily enough all three of those players can play as inside midfielders, saying that though if they were to play as an inside midfielder long term they would add something very different to what we currently have in our mix. Saying that Baldwin could well be the best player of the lot, and ultimately be a top 5 player from this draft if he can get back to his best form from his 2 ACL's surgeries

Great work Gawny I like the sound of the first 2 but Baldwin doesn't excite me. I don't see the need for a key forward with us picking up Ben.Brown and with Jackson, Weideman, McDonald, Petty and Mitch.Brown waiting in the wings. I think we should go for a winger. Do you have any ideas on who we should go for who fits that mould?

Next year is the year we should go for a tall forward with Mitch.Brown and probably McDonald off the list. 2 knee reco's are a no no for me.

[Gawndog98 306]

10 minutes ago, WERRIDEE said:

Great work Gawny I like the sound of the first 2 but Baldwin doesn't excite me. I don't see the need for a key forward with us picking up Ben.Brown and with Jackson, Weideman, McDonald, Petty and Mitch.Brown waiting in the wings. I think we should go for a winger. Do you have any ideas on who we should go for who fits that mould?

Next year is the year we should go for a tall forward with Mitch.Brown and probably McDonald off the list. 2 knee reco's are a no no for me.

I do agree with you re Baldwin that a key forward isn't our biggest at the moment need but I just think that the upside is so great that if he continued on from his trajectory at under 16s he could well be the best player from this draft. There is a chance he could still be available in the 3rd round or even go undrafted potentially. 

For a winger I had us taking Jack Carroll who could be a classy winger for us long term, he just as a bit of work to do on his endurance base. He can also play off a half back flank as a classy on baller which his versatility is a big advantage. As @spirit of norm smithmentioned he is by no means guaranteed to make it to our pick but I'd say it's a 50/50 chance. It is extremely unlikely that Finlay Macrae will make it to our picks but if we were able to package up a few of our picks into that 10-15 range (maybe North's pick) we'd be a good chance to get him. Finlay plays much like his brother Jack, he's a really good kick on both sides of his body, has incredible composure and awareness, and has the endurance to run up and down a wing all day. Macrae is probably the best out and out winger in this years draft but is also versatile enough to play inside or across half forward.

Another winger who would be around the range of our second round pick is Zac Dumensy from SA who had a consistent season for South Adelaide's senior team on a wing and half back. He's a really good, composed right foot kick and is a nice overhead mark where he uses his 187cm frame to his advantage. Has a really good endurance base to run up and down a wing but he isn't very quick. My personal opinion is that Salem would be perfect for the vacant wing role and we should be recruiting a half back to take his spot there. Carroll would be perfect to fill his spot at half back and if a Salem wing experiment didn't work you could always swap them or Rivers if he improves his endurance could push up to a wing as well.

 

 

[spirit of norm smith 12,829]

On 11/24/2020 at 3:29 PM, ChaserJ said:

Apparently HS have us taking Jake Bowey and Seamus Mitchell (a flyer!) with our 1st round picks in their latest phantom.

Profile on Mitchell here:

https://afl.draftcentral.com.au/player/seamus-mitchell/

Seamus Mitchell not in Kevin Shifter Sheahan top 40 as expected. He’s a rookie chance if that. Hard to see us taking him when there is plenty of much more talented and stronger kids ahead of him. 

[manny100 1,000]

Judd slipped to pick 3 because of his shoulders. Lever and Selwood slipped because of ACL's. Not massive slips for those 3 but 2 reco's up the uncertainty ante for Baldwin. However sometimes you just have to take a punt because the rewards of a win are just to enticing.

[IvanBartul13 2,564]

 

 

For the first time since 2004, where I predicted Melbourne taking Matthew Bate and Jordan Russell, I've decided to post a return of the Goodoil Phantom Draft.  Here is the first round, with the rest to follow next week. It includes bids and trades to add a bit of silliness to it.

 

1.  Adelaide Crows - Riley Thilthope - 18, 201cm 102kg - West Adelaide

 

The Crows are in an interesting spot.  Thilthorpe, the local product, makes a lot of sense, but taking him at one doesn't necessarily juice the most value from the pick.  Trading down is a possibility but if they do that they will want to position themselves to get extra draft material and still get Thilthorpe, which would probably require another trade back up with a third party and it could start getting messy.  Trading one pick back with North, who could then facilitate another trade for themselves is a possibility, but in the end just straight up taking Thilthorpe, who is a promising South Australian ruck/forward ends up the pragmatic thing to do.  He has Matthew Kreuzer-like ruck potential but also good forward craft in a strong athletic frame that could cause AFL defenders problems for a long time.   Number one draft picks get financial perks and it would be a strange decision if the Crows bid on Ugle-Hagan and denied their own player those benefits just to hinder the Western Bulldogs by 300 draft pick points.

 

NGA Academy Bid - North Melbourne bids for Jamarra Ugle-Hagan - matched by the Western Bulldogs.  

 

2. Western Bulldogs - Jamarra Ugle-Hagan - 18, 196cm 85kg - Oakleigh Chargers

 

The Kangaroos bid on the best talent in the draft and the Dogs have no choice but to use the flawed points system that benefits them greatly to take Ugle-Hagan, a highly skilled and mobile key forward from the Warrnambool area.  He will likely slot straight in as the third tall forward for the Dogs and wouldn't shock if he is in the 25-40 goal range in his first year at Whitten Oval - a very exciting player!

 

Trade -

 

The Kangaroos trade Pick 3 and their future second round pick to Gold Coast for their first and second round picks in this 2020 draft and their 2021 first rounder.

 

3. Gold Coast - Logan McDonald - 18,  196cm 85kg - Perth

 

North hold highly valuable draft stock here but I think they trade out of it with a host of teams willing to pay a premium for access to McDonald.  Here the Roos drop effectively three spots to get Gold Coast's first rounder, they also get the Suns' redundant second rounder this year and a very nice looking 2021 pick swap (based on current ladder positioning).  The Suns with all the AFL help they've been given are happy to sacrifice draft capital at a loss to get blue chip talent onto their list and McDonald fits that line of thinking   His performances at WAFL senior level have been ground-breaking and he meshes prototypical key forward physical attributes with genuine footballing ability, along the lines of Tom Boyd, who had one of the strangest AFL careers ever, but was talented enough to be paid $1 million per year at a point and went close to winning a Norm Smith Medal.  A McDonald-Ben King combination is a salivating prospect for Suns fans, if any exist.

 

4. Sydney Swans - Denver Grainger-Barrass - 18, 195cm 78kg - Swan Districts

 

It wouldn't shock me if the Swans are in the Logan McDonald trade up sweepstakes, but Grainger-Barrass is a nice mix of need and best available and would be a good pick for the Swans if they stay pat at this draft spot.  A rangy centre half back with strong intercept skills, he should slot straight in to Sydney's back 6 and be a long-term fixture there, projecting to be one of league's best defenders in time.

 

NGA Academy Bid - Hawthorn bids for Braeden Campbell - matched by Sydney Swans

 

5.  Sydney Swans - Braeden Campbell - 18, 180cm 73kg - Pennant Hills

 

Hawthorn annoys the Swans and forces Sydney to take him at pick 5.  It's a no-brainer for the Swans.  They get a two-sided midfielder/half-forward that will step straight into their best 22 and were it not for Matthew Rowell being eligible, likely be a debut year Rising Star contender.

 

6. Hawthorn - Archie Perkins - 18, 186cm 77kg - Sandringham Dragons

 

Will Phillips and Elijah Hollands are still on the board, but the jungle drums beat loudly that Perkins is Hawthorn's man.  From a needs basis, Perkins makes more sense than Phillips and the similar Hollands has an ACL tear in his medical history, so those factors may be in Hawthorn's reckoning, but Perkins brings X-factor, pace and run to a team in desperate need of some reinvigoration.  It would be an interesting pick and if it unfolds this way, comparisoning between Perkins and Hollands will be a thing the Hawks have to deal with.  All in all, though, you can see why Hawthorn would go in this direction.

 

Trade - 

 

The Kangaroos trade the current pick and Pick 30, along with 2021 third and fourth rounders to Collingwood for original picks 14 and 16 and their 2021 first rounder.

 

7. Collingwood - Elijah Hollands - 18, 190cm 84kg - Murray Bushrangers

 

Collingwood's unusual offseason gets stranger as it executes a trade to get it one of the consensus top five players in the draft, the highly skilled Hollands.  They give up their two late first rounders which are vulnerable to Reef McInnes bids and their redundant future first which they want to discard before a bid comes for 2021 father-son prospect Nick Daicos. In addition, they get points in both years to service bids with.  North sacrifice access again to a top talent but they still have a very strong 2020 draft hand and now have three first rounders to play with in 2021.  The Pies hope Hollands' flair and skill will help Pies fans forget the losses of Jaidyn Stephenson and Adam Treloar.  He is a very talented player, especially around goals, but the ACL history is worrisome, especially considering what the Pies are giving up to get him.

 

8. Essendon - Will Phillips - 18, 181cm 79kg - Oakleigh Chargers

 

The Bombers mop up the slider from the accessible consensus top 5 in Will Phillips, the hard running inside midfielder from the Oakleigh Chargers.  It's a great result/pick for the Bombers, he helps in the area they are weakest and he has leadership intangibles that will be of benefit - a likely round one contributor for the Dons as a two-way,, inside-out midfielder.

 

9. Essendon - Nik Cox - 18, 199cm 82kg - Northern Knights

 

At 9, Essendon goes with a less steady pick and takes the incredibly athletic 199cm Cox from the Northern Knights.  It's hard to project what position Cox is best suited to play but as a mound of clay, he is an exciting project for new coach Ben Rutten to work with.  The Bombers would have loved to be able to get hold of McDonald via but their picks were in a trade no man's land sufficient to entice Adelaide or North.  In time they hope Cox can have an impact up forward with his endurance and unusual elasticity for someone of his size.

 

Trade - 

 

Essendon trades the current pick to GWS for what were originally GWS's picks 15 and 20.

 

10. GWS - Zach Reid - 18, 202cm 82kg - Gippsland Power

 

Essendon trades its third first rounder to get a couple more players in the door slightly down the order.  GWS jumps up to get a future cornerstone defender in Reid, who has nice kicking skills to match his wiry 200cm frame.  He will take time to fill out but with Phil Davis now at age 30 and with Sam Taylor struggling to get on the park in recent times, it seems sensible to invest in the position group.  With GWS strong draft hand in terms of volume of picks, they can afford to take what might be a bit of a risky trade jump on a player whose physical one-on-one strength development will be a pivotal factor going forward.

 

 NGA Academy Bid - Port Adelaide matches Adelaides bid for Lachlan Jones

 

11. Port Adelaide - Lachlan Jones - 18, 184cm 87kg - Woodville/West Torrens

 

No surprise that Port matches the bid that comes for Jones from its cross-town rival, a well-rounded half back who could play straight away for the Power and a steal for what they will give up for him under the broken points system.

 

11. Adelaide - Tom Powell - 18, 180cm 70kg - Sturt

 

The Crows go down the local path again and select the son of Matthew Powell, the nuggety midfielder/half back who played 16 games for Adelaide  in the 90s.  His son is a different type of player, a smallish accumulating midfielder with neat skills who has dominated the SANFL junior scene in the last 12 months.  He may take some time but once he fills out, which he should given his dad's muscular physique, Powell should be a nice cog in the Crows midfield going forward.  Adelaide will be hoping he can have a Caleb Serong-like impact in time.

 

12. GWS - Heath Chapman - 18, 193cm 81kg - West Perth

 

The Giants again go to the defensive well and select West Australian Chapman.  Though they play in the same third of the ground, Chapman brings a  different role to the table than does the earlier-picked Reid.  He is a mobile intercept marking type who likes to take the game on, carry the football and deliver by foot.  Some would think it's excessive for the Giants to in effect use three first rounders on defence but down the line a defence of Reid, Chapman, Taylor and Nick Haynes could not only be impassable but also outstanding on the intercept and in delivery. 

 

13. North Melbourne - Finlay Macrae - 18, 186cm 72kg - Oakleigh Chargers

 

The Kangaroos finally make a pick after executing a few trades that will no doubt get tongues wagging on draft night.  They take Macrae the smaller younger brother of the Bulldogs midfield star.  Similar in a lot of ways to his brother, this looks a nice pick for the Roos as they start to replenish their list with the surfeit of picks at their disposal over the next two years.  Fin Macrae could be one to really blossom and play at a level above his draft status, as even though his brother was a high draft pick, he was an enormous improver once he entered the AFL system.

 

14. Fremantle - Oliver Henry - 18, 187cm 77kg - Geelong Falcons

 

The way Freo's list is set up, I think this has to be the pick as the Dockers have a dearth of forward 50 marking options.  Henry is a mobile third type of forward who should be a nice fit alongside Matt Taberner and Rory Lobb.  I think ideally the Dockers would like to go with the local midfield product Jack Carroll at this point but the marriage of need and best available makes the Henry pick a sound one all the same.

 

15. GWS - Sam Berry - 18, 181cm 81kg - Gippsland Power

 

After hopefully shoring up their defense for the next decade with their first two selections, the Giants go to work on their midfield and take the tough tackling, inside operative Sam Berry.  With Callan Ward nearing the end and his likely successor Jye Caldwell now gone, he will help bring a hard edge to the Giants' core that has probably been lacking in recent times and in effect takes Caldwell's spot on the list as his direct replacement.

 

NGA Academy Bid - 

 

North Melbourne bid for Reef McInnes which is matched by Collingwood.

 

16. Collingwood - Reef McInnes - 17, 193cm 86kg - Oakleigh Chargers

 

North cheekily use Collingwood's original pick and bid for McInnes.  Collingwood match and get an intriguing midfield prospect with excellent size, speed and versatility potential.  With Hollands and McInnes the Pies have done well to replace some of the spark lost during its controversial trade week.

 

Trade -

 

North trade the current pick for Geelong's 2021 first rounder and the second rounder they have that is tied to Essendon.

 

17. Geelong - Tanner Bruhn - 18, 182cm 75kg - Geelong Falcons

 

After bringing Collingwood to account, North then add an unholy fourth 2021 first rounder and a valuable second rounder to its books and executes a trade with the Cats.  Geelong get a local product they rate a lot higher than this spot in the draft and the Kangaroos are playing the long game under new coach David Noble.  Bruhn has been on the nose in recent times, maybe clubs think he is more of an outside player than is desirable, maybe it's because he is so underexposed, I'm not sure.  All the same, with this ball skills and poise, he seems a nice pick here for the trade backwards then forwards Cats.

 

18. Essendon - Nathan O'Driscoll -  18, 187cm 76kg - Perth

 

Here the Dons go with the West Australian midfielder and in adding him and Phillips they've added a physical edge to their midfield.  O'Driscoll is a big-bodied mid or half-back who is a fierce tackler and a decent left footer.  When you think about how interested Essendon was in trying to get Josh Dunkley, O'Driscoll is the kind of player that can shore up the kind of weaknesses that the Dons were looking to solidify with that failed trade attempt.

 

19. North Melbourne - Brayden Cook - 18, 188cm 74kg - South Adelaide

 

The Kangaroos, with all eyes on them and a probable draft documentary deal brewing, elect to make their second selection of the draft and not add to their 2021 pick haul by adding South Adelaide talent Brayden Cook.  Cook has torn the SANFL under 18s apart this year and with his dash, high marking and goalkicking acumen, will be an exciting addition for the Roos.  With Tarryn Thomas, Jye Simpkin, Luke Davies-Uniacke and now Macrae and Cook, things probably aren't as bad for North as they appear, especially with what they can now do in the 2021 offseason.

 

20. Richmond - Bailey Laurie - 18, 180cm 75kg - Oakleigh Chargers

 

Having lost Jack Higgins, the Tigers find what could be a direct replacement in Bailey Laurie, the diminutive midfielder/forward with game-breaking ability and punishing footskills.  He might find access to the best 22 difficult early on, but long-term he seems the perfect type of player for the Tigers's forward half systems, with midfield versatility down the line an added bonus.

 

21. Melbourne - Jack Carroll - 17, 188cm 79kg - East Fremantle

 

The Demons add the talented West Australian midfielder from the same WAFL club as Trent Rivers and Luke Jackson.  A left-footer who can cover the ground quickly and with plenty of upside, the Dees will be pleased to add some running power to its midfield on the outside, whilst he further develops his promising inside game.

 

NGA Academy Bid - Melbourne bid for Blake Coleman which is matched by Brisbane.

 

22. Brisbane Lions - Blake Coleman - 18, 181cm 78kg - Morningside

 

Brisbane hold on to the exciting and quick half-forward Coleman, the brother of Kaidean Coleman, who gives them another speedy operator inside 50 to combine with Charlie Cameron.  Melbourne would have loved to add him to Kysaiah Pickett as a crumbing forward combination.

 

23. Melbourne - Jake Bowey - 18, 175cm 66kg - Sandringham Dragons

 

With their second first rounder the Dees take the small but very evasive and neat kicking small Jake Bowey.  The son of ex-St Kilda rover Brett Bowey, Bowey will bring an element of dash to Melbourne and with his kicking efficiency maybe add that dimenson that will help balance Simon Goodwin's ball-winning brigade, whilst also helping the Demons' inconsistent small forward play if deployed in attack.

 

Trade -

 

Essendon trades the current pick to Hawthorn for Hawthorn's second rounder and 2021 third rounder

 

24. Hawthorn - Max Heath - 18, 204cm 88kg- Sandringham Dragons

 

The Hawks trade up a few spots to avoid coughing up a pick unnecessarily to a Connor Downie bid and take a swing for the fences with Heath, a developing ruckman who could be their long-term solution to the ruck position.  A giant man with a physical approach, Heath is very much a raw ball of clay but in time could be worth the investment.  With Downie to come, the Hawks take the view that this in effect a free hit and take a risk that could pay off in spades.

 

25. St Kilda - Cameron Fleeton - 18, 192cm 81kg - Geelong Falcons

 

With their first pick, the Saints add developing Geelong Falcon key defender Cam Fleeton. A more long-range project type player,  Fleeton can take a mark and has shutdown defender potential as well.  Raw in some areas, the Saints hope he develop into a quality key back and will give him time, something they can afford to do as they've once again bolstered their list with proven commodities, Brad Crouch and Jack Higgins.

Edited November 28, 2020 by goodoil

[spirit of norm smith 12,829]

Outstanding work @goodoil. Very creative. Good knowledge of the player types and club needs. 
 

Jack Carroll to the Dees. Probably more a hope than reality. I think GWS would be tempted to grab him with one of their multi picks. But you never know and he’d be the perfect addition to our midfield group. 
 

I like the bid on Coleman.  I’d also bid on Errol Gulden to force the Swans to match. 
 

Bowey. I’m not sure. He’s very skilled but would get pushed aside against bigger and faster types. I would go for Zavier Maher. He’s got all the AFL qualities and I’d be amazed if we skipped on him. Has that burst of pace and  super competitive edge. Poulter also is an option and I guess they’ll be up on your board shortly. 
 

Like to see who gets your nod for our pick 28 or other creative pick swaps.  

Edited November 28, 2020 by spirit of norm smith
C

[Slartibartfast 15,715]

Just a quick note of thanks to those who have put together phantom drafts, Goodoil and Gawndog.  There is often not much discussion following these but that in just an indication that not many have knowledge of the  draft and can't really comment.  Hence this thankyou, you are giving us an insight we value.  The player descriptions are fantastic because come draft night we will have an instant reference to the type of player we get and what we can look forward to. 

I'm sure I speak for many when I say we are very appreciative.

 

[dazzledavey36 48,619]

Some fine work @goodoil

[Little Goffy 12,489]

I like Baldwin as the third selection because I'm generally in favour of taking the risks to get talent that wouldn't normally be available.

We're also in a position where we have a couple of 28 year-old tall forwards (Brown and McDonald) as well as existing younger prospects that means our tall forward group might be a bit stacked for a couple of years, but after that we will see the group evolve significantly. 

Right now, a new young key tall would struggle to crack our 22, but in a couple of years we will need to renew that part of our list a bit.  It makes list management sense to have a potentially really good tall developing cautiously (on comparatively low money, too, which is also important with the cap shenanigans going on everywhere) ready to step up when the opportunities will naturally emerge.

On the other hand, if he doesn't work out, we will have had a couple of years to find that out before within our own system, and can draft accordingly in future.

[Dr.D 1,771]

On 11/26/2020 at 6:53 PM, spirit of norm smith said:

Seamus Mitchell not in Kevin Shifter Sheahan top 40 as expected. He’s a rookie chance if that. Hard to see us taking him when there is plenty of much more talented and stronger kids ahead of him. 

strange comment. What are you basing this on? Have you seen the draftees play yourself, in person?  And the recruiters would watch a lot more football than Sheahan so regardless of who we take, I know that its a very calculated decision. 

'He's a rookie chance if that'. So you've interviewed all the 80 odd prospective draftees? You've sat in on the psychologists testing of the draftees. You've seen all the players play (several times)? No. How could you possibly make a comment like this?  Good job reading a couple of phantom drafts and thinking that you're an expert.  Each club has several full time staff that spend probably 60 hours a week trying to put players in the correct order. 

[adonski 9,097]

14 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

strange comment. What are you basing this on? Have you seen the draftees play yourself, in person?  And the recruiters would watch a lot more football than Sheahan so regardless of who we take, I know that its a very calculated decision. 

'He's a rookie chance if that'. So you've interviewed all the 80 odd prospective draftees? You've sat in on the psychologists testing of the draftees. You've seen all the players play (several times)? No. How could you possibly make a comment like this?  Good job reading a couple of phantom drafts and thinking that you're an expert.  Each club has several full time staff that spend probably 60 hours a week trying to put players in the correct order. 

I have, he'll be rookie at best 

Edited November 29, 2020 by adonski

[Deemania since 56 6,119]

On 11/16/2020 at 2:57 PM, Whispering_Jack said:

... pick #28 turns into pick #36:-

36. Melbourne - Matt Allison
Height, Weight: 192cm, 80kg
Profile: Allison is a strong-marking tall forward who reads the ball well in flight and possesses excellent endurance. Matt is the son of Coburg VFA Team of the Century player, Brian Allison.

Like the profile of this fella, and have heard a little about him across the year. A rather good player '...untried utility potential...' and team distributor. Just a few weight training sessions needed to build the bod and general strengthening alongside team training routines and management.

[Clintosaurus 6,394]

9 minutes ago, adonski said:

I have, he'll be rookie at best 

Not according to this

Stars and smokies: Ultimate 2020 draft guide

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/afl-draft-2020-stars-smokies-and-all-the-kids-you-need-to-know/news-story/24279c915ee94a4d61ce67fb3cc6f506

[spirit of norm smith 12,829]

20 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

strange comment. What are you basing this on? Have you seen the draftees play yourself, in person?  And the recruiters would watch a lot more football than Sheahan so regardless of who we take, I know that its a very calculated decision. 

'He's a rookie chance if that'. So you've interviewed all the 80 odd prospective draftees? You've sat in on the psychologists testing of the draftees. You've seen all the players play (several times)? No. How could you possibly make a comment like this?  Good job reading a couple of phantom drafts and thinking that you're an expert.  Each club has several full time staff that spend probably 60 hours a week trying to put players in the correct order. 

Dr D.  Settle down. It’s a supporters thread. Neither would @gawndogor @goodoil  .  Has Herald Sun journalist sat through the recruiter meetings or psych tests. Really. No poster here is.  I based my opinion on watching 2019 under 18s games.  Bendigo pioneers. From what saw, I’d take Jack Ginnivan who showed a lot more class and footy IQ in the 3 games I saw.  It’s an opinion. FFS.  

Shutdown all opinion based on your view. Shutdown all views on our games given we don’t sit in match committee or watch 100 hours of tapes a week. We have our opinion.

I think recruiters may go for more SA, WA, QLD kids this year based on what they have seen. Unfortunately many Vic metro and country kids may not be given the best possible chance and many are likely to slip through to the rookie draft spots. That’s an opinion. 

[spirit of norm smith 12,829]

1 hour ago, Little Goffy said:

I like Baldwin as the third selection because I'm generally in favour of taking the risks to get talent that wouldn't normally be available.

We're also in a position where we have a couple of 28 year-old tall forwards (Brown and McDonald) as well as existing younger prospects that means our tall forward group might be a bit stacked for a couple of years, but after that we will see the group evolve significantly. 

Right now, a new young key tall would struggle to crack our 22, but in a couple of years we will need to renew that part of our list a bit.  It makes list management sense to have a potentially really good tall developing cautiously (on comparatively low money, too, which is also important with the cap shenanigans going on everywhere) ready to step up when the opportunities will naturally emerge.

On the other hand, if he doesn't work out, we will have had a couple of years to find that out before within our own system, and can draft accordingly in future.

I saw vision of SA under 16s games in 2018 and he was very very good.  A club will definitely take the punt on him.  

[Dr.D 1,771]

23 minutes ago, adonski said:

I have, he'll be rookie at best 

nah I doubt you have. the only way you sit in on those meetings is if you work for a club. And if you worked for a club you wouldn't be writing on forums. Nice try. Just another armchair expert whose opinions are only as good as the next phantom draft that gets released. 

[adonski 9,097]

13 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

nah I doubt you have. the only way you sit in on those meetings is if you work for a club. And if you worked for a club you wouldn't be writing on forums. Nice try. Just another armchair expert whose opinions are only as good as the next phantom draft that gets released. 

That's doctor/patient confidentiality, I can't comment  

[Axis of Bob 10,156]

I think Mitchell is a good chance to be drafted in the second round, from what I've seen. Excellent mover, good pace and kick. Plays pretty outside at the moment but he's got a heap of development in him.

[Gawndog98 306]

On 11/28/2020 at 2:29 PM, spirit of norm smith said:

Outstanding work @goodoil. Very creative. Good knowledge of the player types and club needs. 
 

Jack Carroll to the Dees. Probably more a hope than reality. I think GWS would be tempted to grab him with one of their multi picks. But you never know and he’d be the perfect addition to our midfield group. 
 

I like the bid on Coleman.  I’d also bid on Errol Gulden to force the Swans to match. 
 

Bowey. I’m not sure. He’s very skilled but would get pushed aside against bigger and faster types. I would go for Zavier Maher. He’s got all the AFL qualities and I’d be amazed if we skipped on him. Has that burst of pace and  super competitive edge. Poulter also is an option and I guess they’ll be up on your board shortly. 
 

Like to see who gets your nod for our pick 28 or other creative pick swaps.  

Whether Carroll will get to our pick or not is really interesting and a bit unknown to me. All the draft experts seem to have him going somewhere around 10-20 in their mock drafts where he doesn't get to our picks but then Cal Twomey who has the best mail generally has been saying things like will he be available at St Kilda's pick who is after us and even linking him to clubs early in the second round.

[Dr.D 1,771]

3 hours ago, adonski said:

That's doctor/patient confidentiality, I can't comment  

haha lol. Such a liar. The only vision you've seen is a few youtube videos here and there. But yeah, nice job pretending to know that a player is a rookie quality player despite being in the middle of covid and having not seen a single player live lol

[spirit of norm smith 12,829]

I think the Futures game last year at the G is probably one of the primary comparison points for many recruiters and dare say us posters with the guts to venture an opinion.  

Many of the top 10 picks excelled in that game.  Jack Carroll was actually a standout for me just because of his sheer class and time. Simon Black like.   Eddie Ford another for me that showed real AFL qualities.  It was a good gauge against their peers.  

Having moved here to QLD last December (fortunately) I also got to see Blake Coleman first hand in the local league. He showed his speed and skill and footy smarts against bigger stronger opponents.  I’d like to see us bid for Coleman with one of our picks. A combo with Kozzzzzzy would be exciting.  Again just my opinion btw.  

[Pickett2Jackson 3,904]

On 11/28/2020 at 1:52 PM, goodoil said:

 

 

For the first time since 2004, where I predicted Melbourne taking Matthew Bate and Jordan Russell, I've decided to post a return of the Goodoil Phantom Draft.  Here is the first round, with the rest to follow next week. It includes bids and trades to add a bit of silliness to it.

 

1.  Adelaide Crows - Riley Thilthope - 18, 201cm 102kg - West Adelaide

 

The Crows are in an interesting spot.  Thilthorpe, the local product, makes a lot of sense, but taking him at one doesn't necessarily juice the most value from the pick.  Trading down is a possibility but if they do that they will want to position themselves to get extra draft material and still get Thilthorpe, which would probably require another trade back up with a third party and it could start getting messy.  Trading one pick back with North, who could then facilitate another trade for themselves is a possibility, but in the end just straight up taking Thilthorpe, who is a promising South Australian ruck/forward ends up the pragmatic thing to do.  He has Matthew Kreuzer-like ruck potential but also good forward craft in a strong athletic frame that could cause AFL defenders problems for a long time.   Number one draft picks get financial perks and it would be a strange decision if the Crows bid on Ugle-Hagan and denied their own player those benefits just to hinder the Western Bulldogs by 300 draft pick points.

 

 

 

The Crows actually have a really good ruckman in Reilly O'Brien, so they would be be able to ease in Thilthope through the forward line like we are doing with LJ.

Could be a very astute pick.

[IvanBartul13 2,564]

4 hours ago, Axis of Bob said:

I think Mitchell is a good chance to be drafted in the second round, from what I've seen. Excellent mover, good pace and kick. Plays pretty outside at the moment but he's got a heap of development in him.

He's an absolute certainty to get drafted.  He is what clubs are looking for, guys that break the game open, with natural speed and athleticism. There have been comps on him to Zac Williams and those kind of comparisons can be nauseating because the comparisons are matching extremely raw players with the finished product, but with Mitchell's straight line speed you can see why clubs might see him being dangerous off half-back. 

[640MD 2,742]

It is a given that the posters who do the phantom drafts, and the others not on Demonland, who do the same, HAVE a better knowledge than me of the players coming through.  Love reading this stuff but the research, and the points thing up and down, this draft and the next, its beyond me. TBO.

Could someone average out the different Phantom drafts, remove the players 1-16 say,   we have 18 and 19,  and perhaps get to say 25, and then we or I could look at say a list of  10 players, of whom we might take 2.

Has someone got the time, patience, and perseverance,  let alone computer skills,  Even better if someone who has "inside knowledge" might suggest a target like Jackson, when he was mentioned only a week or so before the draft last year, before that I cannot remember him being spoken of.

If you do  you have my grateful thanks, and I can think of interesting things for a day or so.    Go Dees

even paid my membership the other day on the back of BigBB coming on board. Was not going to, I thought I would wait, but

I have.