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Welcome to Demonland - Picks 18 & 19


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2 minutes ago, Pollyanna said:

I suspect we wanted to trade 18 and 19 for one of Essendon's 3 top 10 picks.

So they could offer a top 10 and 18 for Dunkley.

Thanks would have been the ideal outcome IMO.

Now it's messy.

Hmmm, maybe not. Mahoney was talking about their intention to have those picks because of the lack of exposed form making it harder to assess a lot of the talent, especially Victorian talent. As such the hit rate on earlier picks should be lower and there should be more of that talent seep through to the second round. 

Basically it's saying that early picks are overrated this year (compared with 'normal' years) because there is less certainty surrounding the selections, but picks in the 20s will be somewhat underrated because the lack of exposed form means that differentiating between that top group of players will be more difficult. 

I expect that this draft will see some terrible (in hindsight) draft selections but also some absolute bargains. 

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14 minutes ago, Axis of Bob said:

Basically it's saying that early picks are overrated this year (compared with 'normal' years) because there is less certainty surrounding the selections, but picks in the 20s will be somewhat underrated because the lack of exposed form means that differentiating between that top group of players will be more difficult. 

I expect that this draft will see some terrible (in hindsight) draft selections but also some absolute bargains. 

So same as every year then?

?

Edited by jnrmac
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25 minutes ago, Axis of Bob said:

I expect that this draft will see some terrible (in hindsight) draft selections but also some absolute bargains. 

Lets hope and pray we're on the right side of that ledger. 

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It's been widely reported that the 2021 draft is stronger than the 2020 draft.

Does anyone know if that's the top end talent eg the top 20 best kids in 2021 will be better than all the top 20 in 2020.

Or, do they mean the draft is deeper/even and you'll get a solid player at pick 50 where as in 2020 things dry up pretty quick?

 

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1 hour ago, The Chazz said:

2 weeks ago we didn't have a first round pick for this year, now we have 2!

How I see this deal is that we are banking on making finals next year, which means our first pick would be at least a Pick 10.  We've effectively swapped a Pick 10 for 18 + 19.  Similar to last year/this year with North.  We basically traded Pick 9 for Pick 9, but got access to Kosi a year earlier, who I think will be a very good player for us.

So in answer to the first part of your post that I bolded, I think JM does know what he's doing.  I'm not a big fan of the bloke, but he seems an industry leader in the swapping and upgrading of draft picks.

My concern is that given the draft is meant to run deep with talent in 21 it will be harder to trade with another club to get into the first round than this season. Also we backed ourselves last season to get in a higher position so that the first pic to North would be a concern but look how that turned out.

I really hope we have something lined up with 18 and 19 cause we gave up a lot (first rounder21) to get them. Time will tell Chazz.

 

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59 minutes ago, Axis of Bob said:

Hmmm, maybe not. Mahoney was talking about their intention to have those picks because of the lack of exposed form making it harder to assess a lot of the talent, especially Victorian talent. As such the hit rate on earlier picks should be lower and there should be more of that talent seep through to the second round. 

Basically it's saying that early picks are overrated this year (compared with 'normal' years) because there is less certainty surrounding the selections, but picks in the 20s will be somewhat underrated because the lack of exposed form means that differentiating between that top group of players will be more difficult. 

I expect that this draft will see some terrible (in hindsight) draft selections but also some absolute bargains. 

Yes it's interesting to consider whether we were trying to trade up for the reason you (and others) have outlined above or whether it's because we have a specific target in mind that we couldn't reach from the 2nd round.

All will be revealed by our draft night strategy - we won't die wondering with Mahoney at the helm.

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6 minutes ago, TheoX said:

Had better hope we do well next year and Taylor nails these picks which will end up being well into the 20s. Next years draft is mainly uncompromised and supposedly much stronger. Telling that no other club has traded a future first.

It appears our strategy with the draft is ALWAYS trade our "next years" 1st rounder - effectively getting the player asset one year early.  i.e. Kozzie.  Then next years we'll get a 1st rounder by trading out 2022's etc.  So far the Clubs have delivered on this. I like it. At least they have a clear strategy.

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If we don’t manage to move up the draft order with 18 and 19 I think there’s also a good chance that we trade one for a 2021 first round pick. 
Clubs can make some pretty bold offers on draft night to get a player they like that has slipped.

eg. Carlton/Adelaide Stocker trade or last year Gold Coast trading a future pick (11) for Geelongs pick 27 (Jeremy Sharp)

A team like Fremantle could see a player they almost selected at pick 12 slide out to 19 and offer us their 2021 first for  pick 19 and perhaps a later pick swap and then back themselves to improve in 2021.

Having these picks together gives us a lot of flexibility. Ideally 2 players we really like will be available but if only 1 player is left trying to leverage a deal in our favour could get us back up the order in 2021

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Depending on where a bid for Collingwood's academy prospect Reef McInnes comes, I could see Collingwood trying to trade their future first for one of our pick 18 or 19 if a bid hasn't come by the time our pick has come around. They want to get rid of their future first because it will get swallowed up by Daicos going top 5 and they have openly emphasised getting more picks in this years draft.

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13 hours ago, Axis of Bob said:

Hmmm, maybe not. Mahoney was talking about their intention to have those picks because of the lack of exposed form making it harder to assess a lot of the talent, especially Victorian talent. As such the hit rate on earlier picks should be lower and there should be more of that talent seep through to the second round. 

Basically it's saying that early picks are overrated this year (compared with 'normal' years) because there is less certainty surrounding the selections, but picks in the 20s will be somewhat underrated because the lack of exposed form means that differentiating between that top group of players will be more difficult. 

I expect that this draft will see some terrible (in hindsight) draft selections but also some absolute bargains. 

With those picks there is historically a 50% chance of getting a 100 game player across all drafts. So two picks is better than a single pick 15 next year (assuming we finish 4th, as they are clearly backing themsleves).

https://www.draftguru.com.au/analysis/pick-value-comparison

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16 hours ago, TheoX said:

Had better hope we do well next year and Taylor nails these picks which will end up being well into the 20s. Next years draft is mainly uncompromised and supposedly much stronger. Telling that no other club has traded a future first.

How can you definitively say this? Do you have a crystal ball that says we are not going to have another pandemic or a natural disaster or what is your source? The truth is that we have no idea, any more than we could have looked ahead last year. Frankly, I have more confidence in Mahoney and Taylor than I have in anyone fulfilling their roles in the past and am happy to back them against their counterparts at the other 17 Clubs.   

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6 hours ago, deanox said:

With those picks there is historically a 50% chance of getting a 100 game player across all drafts. So two picks is better than a single pick 15 next year (assuming we finish 4th, as they are clearly backing themsleves).

https://www.draftguru.com.au/analysis/pick-value-comparison

Interesting chart: it clearly shows that there is minimal difference between the performance return on pick numbers 5-10 than numbers 11-20. To get two picks this year inside 20 is indeed a coup (and I get the feeling Mahoney/Taylor & Co. haven’t finished trading yet).

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On 11/14/2020 at 6:03 AM, CBDees said:

How can you definitively say this? Do you have a crystal ball that says we are not going to have another pandemic or a natural disaster or what is your source? The truth is that we have no idea, any more than we could have looked ahead last year. Frankly, I have more confidence in Mahoney and Taylor than I have in anyone fulfilling their roles in the past and am happy to back them against their counterparts at the other 17 Clubs.   

Just going on whats accepted by the media, they'd know more than you or I. There won't be all the academy/NGA etc picks there are this year either, think that's generally accepted too. Mahoney himself said this years draft was heavily compromised when he traded with north last year. 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-19/afl-recruiters-face-huge-challenge-to-judge-draft-prospects/12462594

Heres one example, but ive seen it in lots of articles. 

"every recruiter seems certain of one thing: 2021's AFL draft crop will be much better"

Clubs were falling over themselves to trade future firsts last year, says a lot that only one club has this year.

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22 hours ago, Pollyanna said:

I suspect we wanted to trade 18 and 19 for one of Essendon's 3 top 10 picks.

So they could offer a top 10 and 18 for Dunkley.

Thanks would have been the ideal outcome IMO.

Now it's messy.

Not a chance. Given the bulldogs picks would just get eaten up by a bid at pick 1 this would never work. I highly doubt we were expecting that.

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3 hours ago, CBDees said:

Interesting chart: it clearly shows that there is minimal difference between the performance return on pick numbers 5-10 than numbers 11-20. To get two picks this year inside 20 is indeed a coup (and I get the feeling Mahoney/Taylor & Co. haven’t finished trading yet).

Because it groups 11-20 you might find that 18-20 is a bit worse, but not by much.

Also games played is a good metric, but doesn't tell us about the quality of those games. I don't know if a difference is measurable.

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10 hours ago, deanox said:

With those picks there is historically a 50% chance of getting a 100 game player across all drafts. So two picks is better than a single pick 15 next year (assuming we finish 4th, as they are clearly backing themsleves).

https://www.draftguru.com.au/analysis/pick-value-comparison

Agree. Trading into top 6-12 provides little additional value. I think we should hold onto our picks and use to select a small forward and winger. Pace and skill. JT is a good judge so I back him in.

I would consider trading for Collingwood’s future first though. They’re a good bet to drop off significantly next year.

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1 hour ago, Better days ahead said:

Agree. Trading into top 6-12 provides little additional value. I think we should hold onto our picks and use to select a small forward and winger. Pace and skill. JT is a good judge so I back him in.

I would consider trading for Collingwood’s future first though. They’re a good bet to drop off significantly next year.

I think trading up is only considered if you have a very specific target, and you think there is a measurable difference in quality between the players you expect available. 

So perhaps in 2020 the top 12 are expected great prospects, but in 2021 its the top 20 before a drop away.

Or perhaps there are 5 really good outside mids in the draft pool but all are expected to go in the top 15, leaving inside mids and utilities to round out the top 20. In that case, it may be worth trading up on a needs basis, but increasing risk.

 

Edited by deanox
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I reckon we are going after Brayden Cook. He is a tall wingman predicted by Cal Twoomey to go at 16 but may slide. Hard at it midfield/forwards may be our other need that pick 19 nets.

Edited by Thehardtackler
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3 hours ago, Watts the matter said:

Not a chance. Given the bulldogs picks would just get eaten up by a bid at pick 1 this would never work. I highly doubt we were expecting that.

I know what you are saying but the Bulldogs were on record saying they wanted 2 1st rounders for Dunkley.  I agree they would have preferred 2021 1st rounders but they could have taken 2020 7 and 18, then traded 7 for a 2021 1st rounder at anytime up to and including Draft night and actually used 18 for points on JUH.

Let's see what happens if the AFL do have a second trade period.

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23 hours ago, TheoX said:

Had better hope we do well next year and Taylor nails these picks which will end up being well into the 20s. Next years draft is mainly uncompromised and supposedly much stronger. Telling that no other club has traded a future first.

I think it could be strategic. Maybe we have a father son who we rate round oneish, I'm thinkingperhaqps someone from WA whose dad was a fan favourite. Oh yeah, he won a Brownlow too.

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1 minute ago, Whispering_Jack said:

It seems logical to believe that next year’s draft crop will be better than this year’s because there are going to be a number of late developers who would otherwise have been noticed this year and who won’t be apparent until 2021.

Makes me wonder why we traded out of the 2021 first round.

See my previous post. Could on the money, might not, but it half explains the strategy of using next year's round one pick (even if we finish 9th again it's 1465 points from memory).

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