Welcome to Demonland - Picks 18 & 19

[DubDee 20,331]

2 hours ago, Dr.D said:

i still cant believe we traded next years 1st rounder. Most of the good players are being snapped up this year as academy picks. 

I dont know which players are considered as 'value' that has speed. 

no need to worry, we didn't have any first rounders for this year at the start of the trade period either

this time next year JM will have spun his magic and turned ANB and a packet of chips into pick 8 and 14

[Dee-licious 1,800]

Herald Sun have a nice little piece on the top 60 draftees. AFL are only expecting around 50 picks to be taken this year (as per AFL website) 

 

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/afl-draft-2020-dossier-interactive-profiles-stats-and-draft-range-on-all-the-top-prospects-from-around-the-country/news-story/b6eff3e0139aed53c9867837030577cb

 

What I noticed looking at these, then with Twoomey, Knightmare, AFL Draft Central is a lot of discrepancy between picks 8-25. The more and more I read, the more and more I agree with Mahnoey's decision to have 3 picks in the top 28 and see what shakes out. As we are only taking 3 picks to the draft (AFL website), I can see a case for using 19, 28 + 50 (equal to pick 5/6) to move up, but I don't know who takes it. 

Collingwood have 14 and 16 and I dont think that Reef will be taken before then, and they'd be happy to sacrifice points on their pick next year. Maybe just maybe they'd be keep to swap out 16 on the night if they are confident Rich and Melb wont bid on Reef and then they get the extra points they need. But it is a long shot. 

Essendon have Brand who is mid-20s pick and they dont have the points for him, but I cannot see them parting with pick 8 for 19, 28 + 50 though. 

Which gets me to why I dont think it matters. Tall wingers / half back flankers / guys who can deliver a ball, come on down - Perkins, Henry, McCrae, Cook, O'Driscoll, Poulter, Carroll, you could even throw Chapman in there as well (all picks 10-30). Laurie is a small forward with an elite kick, Winder and Ford could be drafted into our forward line (25+). 

It just feels like this is one of those drafts that people will look back at and ask how recruiters got it so wrong. So lets back Taylor and see how it all shakes out in a few years. 

[Carn dees 108]

17 minutes ago, Dee-licious said:

Herald Sun have a nice little piece on the top 60 draftees. AFL are only expecting around 50 picks to be taken this year (as per AFL website) 

 

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/afl-draft-2020-dossier-interactive-profiles-stats-and-draft-range-on-all-the-top-prospects-from-around-the-country/news-story/b6eff3e0139aed53c9867837030577cb

 

What I noticed looking at these, then with Twoomey, Knightmare, AFL Draft Central is a lot of discrepancy between picks 8-25. The more and more I read, the more and more I agree with Mahnoey's decision to have 3 picks in the top 28 and see what shakes out. As we are only taking 3 picks to the draft (AFL website), I can see a case for using 19, 28 + 50 (equal to pick 5/6) to move up, but I don't know who takes it. 

Do you mind copy and posting ? i have not got a h/sun membership

[Dwight Schrute 16,722]

3 hours ago, Dr.D said:

i still cant believe we traded next years 1st rounder. Most of the good players are being snapped up this year as academy picks. 

I dont know which players are considered as 'value' that has speed. 

Fortunately the recruiting team who watch these players for years leading up made the decision, they've obviously got some players in mind.

[spirit of norm smith 12,833]

It’s a shame that guys like Nick Stevens didn’t get the chance to play this year. He’s another mid/half-back runner with excellent skills. 

[58er 5,586]

49 minutes ago, Dee-licious said:

Herald Sun have a nice little piece on the top 60 draftees. AFL are only expecting around 50 picks to be taken this year (as per AFL website) 

 

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/afl-draft-2020-dossier-interactive-profiles-stats-and-draft-range-on-all-the-top-prospects-from-around-the-country/news-story/b6eff3e0139aed53c9867837030577cb

 

What I noticed looking at these, then with Twoomey, Knightmare, AFL Draft Central is a lot of discrepancy between picks 8-25. The more and more I read, the more and more I agree with Mahnoey's decision to have 3 picks in the top 28 and see what shakes out. As we are only taking 3 picks to the draft (AFL website), I can see a case for using 19, 28 + 50 (equal to pick 5/6) to move up, but I don't know who takes it. 

Collingwood have 14 and 16 and I dont think that Reef will be taken before then, and they'd be happy to sacrifice points on their pick next year. Maybe just maybe they'd be keep to swap out 16 on the night if they are confident Rich and Melb wont bid on Reef and then they get the extra points they need. But it is a long shot. 

Essendon have Brand who is mid-20s pick and they dont have the points for him, but I cannot see them parting with pick 8 for 19, 28 + 50 though. 

Which gets me to why I dont think it matters. Tall wingers / half back flankers / guys who can deliver a ball, come on down - Perkins, Henry, McCrae, Cook, O'Driscoll, Poulter, Carroll, you could even throw Chapman in there as well (all picks 10-30). Laurie is a small forward with an elite kick, Winder and Ford could be drafted into our forward line (25+). 

It just feels like this is one of those drafts that people will look back at and ask how recruiters got it so wrong. So lets back Taylor and see how it all shakes out in a few years. 

Why are you quoting 19 28 and 50?

We have 18,19 and 28 Which we st this stage intend to use haven't we?

[adonski 9,102]

Lamelo Ball just went #3, shame we didn't trade up

[Dee-licious 1,800]

1 hour ago, 58er said:

Why are you quoting 19 28 and 50?

We have 18,19 and 28 Which we st this stage intend to use haven't we?

We have pick 50 and 89 as well. This year you can as many picks as you want into the draft and only use one of them if wanted (NGA stuff) all because of list sizes, weird year, etc. So you'll see some teams take 7 picks into the draft but only use 3. 

 

1 hour ago, Carn dees said:

Do you mind copy and posting ? i have not got a h/sun membership

It is an interactive set up so there is no way that I'll be able to post them all. If there are a couple that you want though I can post them up.  

[Dee-licious 1,800]

53 minutes ago, adonski said:

Lamelo Ball just went #3, shame we didn't trade up

Thing I'm learning from the NBA draft - no one knows who is taking who and top 5 picks are ending up at 12, guys outside the top 20 in some boards inside the top 10. And the NBA has way more vision and way more scrutiny then we do. Good luck anyone doing a phantom this year...

[spirit of norm smith 12,833]

Don’t tell Gil. In the NBA Draft (basketball), you can buy or sell draft picks depending on the cap, penalties and the $$$ having to be paid on contracts per draft pick.  It’s a absolute maze of swapping players and picks and future picks and options and cash even on the draft night occasion.  You need to an advanced mathematician to solve the NBA drafting puzzle. Again don’t tell Gil.  

[Nascent 7,203]

Wouldn't be surprised to see us take a tall.  With May in the back end of his career we only have Lever as a Best 22 key back with Petty developing and Tomlinson and Tom McDonald more stop gap options. Think we'll look to add to our depth there and develop a young key position player. Cox sounds like an interesting prospect if he gets through while if Reid or Chapman somehow slid I think we would snap them up.

Mahoney mentioned we believe there is more of a "variety of player" in this years draft, my guess is there after a KPP and a running "outside" midfielder with 18,19 and then they'll pick the next best talent to side through to 28, subject to further trades.

[BScotti 112]

according to article on AFL website, we are only taking 3 picks at draft.  without a change then thats 18, 19 and 28 (or whatever they end up as).  That will leave us 2 spots to fill assuming we are leaving 1 open for DFA, SPP

 

[skills32 229]

On 11/15/2020 at 9:45 AM, adonski said:

Reckon Laurie is the go at pick 19 or 28 should we retain them, his tape even more impressive than Macrae imo

 

There's a fair bit of Clayton about this guy.

[skills32 229]

Mahoney is a shrewd customer. Wouldn't like to paly chess with him.

[Watts the matter 1,235]

5 hours ago, skills32 said:

There's a fair bit of Clayton about this guy.

In what way? He hardly won a contested ball the whole video. I saw Spargo myself.

[BDA 19,978]

1 hour ago, Watts the matter said:

In what way? He hardly won a contested ball the whole video. I saw Spargo myself.

If he kicks on in development I saw the long term replacement for Melksham.

[jnrmac 18,914]

7 hours ago, Better days ahead said:

If he kicks on in development I saw the long term replacement for Melksham.

I thought his kicking looked weak. Accurate but no depth

Its a small sample I know ...

[Redleg 37,470]

Taylor could have an interesting draft this year, with some players being available at his picks, that he might be surprised at.

[spirit of norm smith 12,833]

Still reckon JT’s list has in order 

Finlay Macrae

Jack Carroll

Archie Perkins

Nik Cox

Brayden Cook

* Errol Gulden (bid)

Caleb Poulter

Isiah Winder

Bailey Laurie

Zavier Maher

Eddie Ford

 If we can snag 3 of these ten players with our 18,19,28 , we’d have done very well. 
 

Agree that we’d be a chance to also bid on Blake Coleman or Brandon Walker if all the above were gone by pick 28.  Nick Stevens I’d probably next best option. 

 

[faultydet 7,593]

1 hour ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Still reckon JT’s list has in order 

Finlay Macrae

Jack Carroll

Archie Perkins

Nik Cox

 

Obviously it's highlights, but that Nik Cox video on Youtube is a cracker.

Starts off looking gangly and unco but jesus the kid can play.

 

[BDA 19,978]

On 11/21/2020 at 4:37 PM, jnrmac said:

I thought his kicking looked weak. Accurate but no depth

Its a small sample I know ...

Fair point but just to clarify I don’t think he’s an immediate replacement. He’ll get stronger with proper strength and conditioning which should improve his depth.  

[Lucifers Hero 36,981]

trades-analysis

"Melbourne (38) was one of the rare teams trying to trade into this year’s draft, rather than trading into 2021 for bid-matching or pure talent purposes.

Simon Goodwin’s team clearly feels there’s talent to be gained this year, sending out all four of their future picks, including being the only team to trade away their 2021 first-round pick.

In the process they landed selections 18 and 19, along with 28 and 50, which will either allow them to again package up picks to move even higher, or simply take four quality kids.

There’s a risk to this, because the 2020 draft crop is as unknown a group as we’ve had in recent years - given the inability of most to play under-18s footy this year - but if they trust their recruiters, this could be a defining month for the Demons".

Do we know something other clubs don't? 

Certainly JT is one to trust as he has runs on the board.  But, given the talent in next years draft (as signalled by clubs wanting to trade into 2021) are we playing 'russian roulette' trying to cherry pick this year's talents with picks that will be mid 20's plus or mid to late teens (if we can engineer a trade up for such a pick).

While we have been successful trading picks to go up the draft order we haven't got as high as we would like in the last two years.  I recall mention on DL that we tried to trade up in 2018 to get Zac Butters and in 2019 to get Mitch Georgiades but we didn't get high enough (or able to split a high pick).  I guess that is the risk of regularly trading out future 1st round picks and then miss targetted players.   

I wonder who we really want this year?  Hopefully we can get him.

 

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,381]

27 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

trades-analysis

"Melbourne (38) was one of the rare teams trying to trade into this year’s draft, rather than trading into 2021 for bid-matching or pure talent purposes.

Simon Goodwin’s team clearly feels there’s talent to be gained this year, sending out all four of their future picks, including being the only team to trade away their 2021 first-round pick.

In the process they landed selections 18 and 19, along with 28 and 50, which will either allow them to again package up picks to move even higher, or simply take four quality kids.

There’s a risk to this, because the 2020 draft crop is as unknown a group as we’ve had in recent years - given the inability of most to play under-18s footy this year - but if they trust their recruiters, this could be a defining month for the Demons".

Do we know something other clubs don't? 

Certainly JT is one to trust as he has runs on the board.  But, given the talent in next years draft (as signalled by clubs wanting to trade into 2021) are we playing 'russian roulette' trying to cherry pick this year's talents with picks that will be mid 20's plus or mid to late teens (if we can engineer a trade up for such a pick).

While we have been successful trading picks to go up the draft order we haven't got as high as we would like in the last two years.  I recall mention on DL that we tried to trade up in 2018 to get Zac Butters and in 2019 to get Mitch Georgiades but we didn't get high enough (or able to split a high pick).  I guess that is the risk of regularly trading out future 1st round picks and then miss targetted players.   

I wonder who we really want this year?  Hopefully we can get him.

 

The strategy might also reflect Goodwin's and/or the club's concern that unless the club does well this year, there might not be a "next year" for the current football department. Just like politics, the needs for short-term decisions might interfere with the greater good. I hope that's not the case, but it's a possibility that shouldn't be ignored. 

[spirit of norm smith 12,833]

41 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

trades-analysis

"Melbourne (38) was one of the rare teams trying to trade into this year’s draft, rather than trading into 2021 for bid-matching or pure talent purposes.

Simon Goodwin’s team clearly feels there’s talent to be gained this year, sending out all four of their future picks, including being the only team to trade away their 2021 first-round pick.

In the process they landed selections 18 and 19, along with 28 and 50, which will either allow them to again package up picks to move even higher, or simply take four quality kids.

There’s a risk to this, because the 2020 draft crop is as unknown a group as we’ve had in recent years - given the inability of most to play under-18s footy this year - but if they trust their recruiters, this could be a defining month for the Demons".

Do we know something other clubs don't? 

Certainly JT is one to trust as he has runs on the board.  But, given the talent in next years draft (as signalled by clubs wanting to trade into 2021) are we playing 'russian roulette' trying to cherry pick this year's talents with picks that will be mid 20's plus or mid to late teens (if we can engineer a trade up for such a pick).

While we have been successful trading picks to go up the draft order we haven't got as high as we would like in the last two years.  I recall mention on DL that we tried to trade up in 2018 to get Zac Butters and in 2019 to get Mitch Georgiades but we didn't get high enough (or able to split a high pick).  I guess that is the risk of regularly trading out future 1st round picks and then miss targetted players.   

I wonder who we really want this year?  Hopefully we can get him.

 

I’m trusting JM and JT.  I’ve called out Jack Carroll as a quality youngster that fits our team perfectly with his skills, reasonable pace, footy IQ and ability to win the footy. Saw him in the Futures u17s game on the G last year. Reminded me of a young Simon Black.  Connection to MFC as he played for East Freo Colts last year with Riv and LJ.

I think he was shot up the draft boards as he has been able to play WA Colts footy this year. We might have our radar fixed on him but he’s probably now ranked even higher than our picks. But you never know. So fingers crossed. 

[Colm 1,473]

I like that the footy department is backing themselves to find talent in this draft. The next 3 years should be the time for this team to peak. Drafting talent a year early like we did with Pickett last year allows talents coming through to add further quality that’s ready to go when the majority  of our list is at their peak. I think most demonlanders would have Jackson, Pickett and Rivers in their best 22. If we could pick up 2 players in this draft that would be in our best 22 by the end of next season I think that would be a massive result for us and have us in the “ flag window” if other things click. With a bit of improvement hopefully we can recruit more mature players via trades next year instead of the draft. 
 

On the other hand if we don’t do well this year we will prob lose some star players at the end of it in which case we will probably get strong draft picks as compensation. 
JT has proven himself over the past few years to be keen on certain players long before they were considered high draft picks. Given what has happened it 2020 this draft could be his finest hour. 
Fingers crossed.