Welcome to Demonland - Picks 18 & 19

[BDA 20,018]

46 minutes ago, Colm said:

Didn’t we split a top 10 pick into 2 later picks last year. Which we then picked Pickett and Rivers with. We liked Pickett and he wasn’t going to go too 10 so by trading we got Rivers as well. Doesn’t seem that silly. 

Particularly this year with good players slipping through to the second round due to lack of exposed form. Personally i think we should use picks 18 and 19 (or 22 and 23 if that's where we land post NGA selections) to pick up a small forward and winger rather than trading up the order.

[adonski 9,120]

2 minutes ago, Arrow said:

Wow thanks for sharing. The game against Gippsland his delivery into I50 was exceptional and from the highlights must've been close to BOG - a real difference with each possession. I often find these videos being nothing possessions from accumulators but this was really impressive. Great find Adonski, would be thrilled if I saw him name fall to us at one of our picks. 

Agreed, this was a video where his strengths were very clearly on display. Ticks all boxes.

[spirit of norm smith 12,885]

1 hour ago, adonski said:

Reckon Laurie is the go at pick 19 or 28 should we retain them, his tape even more impressive than Macrae imo

 

Agree. He’s a very good player. I had him as the Tigers pick in my phantom draft. See 2020 draft prospects thread.  Solid build. Evasive. Good skills. Smart. Good goalkicker.  Perfect half forward who could also go into the midfield in a few years.  

[spirit of norm smith 12,885]

On 11/13/2020 at 7:37 AM, Action Jackson said:

I personally would love to see us take 18 & 19 to the draft.

These are perfect picks to go for quick, skillful smalls similar to the Power did with Duursma and Butters.

Areas we have covered:

KPF - Brown, Jackson, Weid & McDonald

KPD - May, Lever, Petty & Tomlinson

Ruck - Gawn & Bradtke - ideally we add Phillips on a one year contract as back up

Inside Mids - Oliver, Petracca, Harmes, Viney, Brayshaw & Sparrow

Medium/Small backs - Rivers, Salem, Hibberd, Smith & Lockhart

Medium/small forwards - Fritsch, Melksham, Pickett, Spargo, Hunt & Baker

I want players with genuine leg speed and skills to play on the outside more or partner Pickett up forward.

Any keen draft observers have same names in mind that fit this?

Some names around 18,19 which end up as picks 24,25 most likely.   Brayden Cook, Bailey Laurie, Isaiah Winder, Caleb Poulter. 

[adonski 9,120]

7 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Some names around 18,19 which end up as picks 24,25 most likely.   Brayden Cook, Bailey Laurie, Isaiah Winder, Caleb Poulter. 

Interesting you list Poulter, I get he is quick for this size but isn't he a bit more of the same?

Edited November 15, 2020 by adonski

[Lucifers Hero 36,991]

fwiw I read on another website that Brisbane offered picks 18 and 19 to Ess for pick 8 and they turned it down.  So I don't like our chances of getting any of their picks.  Especially (as noted earlier) GWS and Collingwood hold a better hand.

I note from the Phantom Draft threads that there is a wide variation of players in the top 20ish range so I'm ok if we have to go to the draft with 18 and 19 as some good players will slide.

[picket fence 15,087]

Dazzle seems to know a good deal about potentials..... Daz assuming we keep 18,19 what could we potentially get??

[adonski 9,120]

39 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

fwiw I read on another website that Brisbane offered picks 18 and 19 to Ess for pick 8 and they turned it down.  So I don't like our chances of getting any of their picks.  Especially (as noted earlier) GWS and Collingwood hold a better hand.

I note from the Phantom Draft threads that there is a wide variation of players in the top 20ish range so I'm ok if we have to go to the draft with 18 and 19 as some good players will slide.

Yep, I'd actually be pretty happy with heading in with 18, 19, 28. I certainly don't want to package up both 18 + 19 anyway.

[Nascent 7,225]

1 hour ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

fwiw I read on another website that Brisbane offered picks 18 and 19 to Ess for pick 8 and they turned it down.  So I don't like our chances of getting any of their picks.  Especially (as noted earlier) GWS and Collingwood hold a better hand.

I note from the Phantom Draft threads that there is a wide variation of players in the top 20ish range so I'm ok if we have to go to the draft with 18 and 19 as some good players will slide.

Yes I'm finding it hard to picture how we trade up further from here with the picks we have and no first rounder next year. If anything I can see us try and trade 28 + 50 for something like Hawthorns pick 24 if a bid comes in for their academy player prior to that pick.

[Dr. Gonzo 22,411]

On 11/14/2020 at 12:36 PM, Whispering_Jack said:

It seems logical to believe that next year’s draft crop will be better than this year’s because there are going to be a number of late developers who would otherwise have been noticed this year and who won’t be apparent until 2021.

Makes me wonder why we traded out of the 2021 first round.

I know they've been tracking them for years but how could they confidently say next year's crop will be better when the last exposed form they have on these kids is as 16yos?

[Watts the matter 1,235]

11 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I know they've been tracking them for years but how could they confidently say next year's crop will be better when the last exposed form they have on these kids is as 16yos?

It's not based on form, more that they think not as many draft picks will be used this year and some players that didn't get the chance to show their improvement as a top ager this year will be in next years crop along with the normal talent pool. 

[spirit of norm smith 12,885]

On 11/15/2020 at 3:01 PM, adonski said:

Interesting you list Poulter, I get he is quick for this size but isn't he a bit more of the same?

HERE IS MY LIKELY OPTIONS FOR 18,19. 

(assume Macrae, Carroll and Perkins are gone)

Caleb Poulter- SA. WWT Eagles. tall 189cms ruck rover or half back flank. Great skilled creative left footer.  Sets up play and has that Pendlebury like time with the footy.  Needs the gym and perhaps work rate. 

Brayden Cook -SA STH Adelaide.  smart creative half forward or wing. Good runner. Pace and endurance.  Loves a goal. Would start as a half forward or wing option. 

Bailey Laurie - VIC. Oakleigh chargers.  Unfortunately didn’t see him in 2020 but his footy as an underaged in 2019 was superb. Saw him a game for Caulfield Grammar v Scotch in 2019 and he was the standout.  Good solid build. Evasive. Skilled. Smart. Loves a goal. He’d definitely be AFL ready with a good preseason.  

Isiah Winder - WA. Peel Thunder. Had a really good 2020 to rise up in recruiters note pads.  Too good for Colts about 5-6 excellent games, he played 5 league matches and was not overwhelmed.  Creative and skilled. Loves to setup play or run. Pace. Yes he did 2.87 for 20 metre sprint. I’d like to see him kick the footy more because he has great skills. In JT’s sights ?????

[Lucifers Hero 36,991]

12 hours ago, adonski said:

Yep, I'd actually be pretty happy with heading in with 18, 19, 28. I certainly don't want to package up both 18 + 19 anyway.

I think there is some chance of prising #12 from Freo if they think their preferred player will slide but again we are competing with Coll and GWS who hold superior trading hands.  We might have to throw in 18, 19 and 28 to get a mid 1st round pick.  But if we are planning to take only one player and we can get him then why not. 

Another option is to sit on 18 and 19 and if our preferred play slides take him with 18 then be prepared, on draft night, to trade immediately trade out 19 to a club whose preferred player is ready to be taken off the board.  At that point it will attract a premium.

Sooo many options...

I'm thinking a lot of 1st round pick swaps might happen on draft night depending on who slides down the order. 

[The Chazz 4,077]

On 11/14/2020 at 6:03 AM, CBDees said:

How can you definitively say this? Do you have a crystal ball that says we are not going to have another pandemic or a natural disaster or what is your source? The truth is that we have no idea, any more than we could have looked ahead last year. Frankly, I have more confidence in Mahoney and Taylor than I have in anyone fulfilling their roles in the past and am happy to back them against their counterparts at the other 17 Clubs.   

It's the Melbourne way.  We are always thinking next year is going to be better than the current one.

However, 2020 has been crud, so keeping everything crossed that 2021 is an improvement!

[Sydee 3,613]

Bailey Laurie looks like a clone of Charlie Spargo - not saying either are bad players but boy they move and look the same IMO

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,392]

On 11/14/2020 at 12:36 PM, Whispering_Jack said:

It seems logical to believe that next year’s draft crop will be better than this year’s because there are going to be a number of late developers who would otherwise have been noticed this year and who won’t be apparent until 2021.

Makes me wonder why we traded out of the 2021 first round.

 

13 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I know they've been tracking them for years but how could they confidently say next year's crop will be better when the last exposed form they have on these kids is as 16yos?

While it has been said that the 2021 crop of potential draftees will be stronger than 2020, we need to be mindful that there might be no junior football in 2021 either. Hopefully, that doesn't occur, but we can't deny the possibility. If that were to be the case, the 2021 draft will be a bigger raffle than 2020 because there will be less known about and less exposed form for next year's group than for this year's bunch.

[adonski 9,120]

1 hour ago, Sydee said:

Bailey Laurie looks like a clone of Charlie Spargo - not saying either are bad players but boy they move and look the same IMO

I thought similar, but I think Laurie is a level above on talent 

[spirit of norm smith 12,885]

1 hour ago, Sydee said:

Bailey Laurie looks like a clone of Charlie Spargo - not saying either are bad players but boy they move and look the same IMO

Yes and no.

Bailey Laurie is stronger already in the upper body as a 17-18 year old.  Could play next year after a decent preseason.  

His tackle is better.

Laurie is 180cms v Spargo 173cms. 

 

[Fat Tony 4,396]

While adding to our small forwards and outside midfielders are what we need from a list perspective, IMO we need to be selecting the best player available - even if that means we get a ruckman, key forward or inside midfielder. Free agency has shortened the period to build a list, so making sure you hit on your picks is more important than fulfilling needs.

Further, as much as I think it is a good strategy to borrow from the future picks, we should be willing to trade back to 2021 if the main targets on our draft board are gone. Particularly if we get a good return from someone who wants to move up the draft.

[The Chazz 4,077]

2 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Yes and no.

Bailey Laurie is stronger already in the upper body as a 17-18 year old.  Could play next year after a decent preseason.  

His tackle is better.

Laurie is 180cms v Spargo 173cms. 

 

SONS, my concerns about Laurie, based on that 4min clip above, is that his kicking over 40m looks quite weak.  His short kicking game without doubt looks excellent.

Thoughts?

[adonski 9,120]

6 minutes ago, The Chazz said:

SONS, my concerns about Laurie, based on that 4min clip above, is that his kicking over 40m looks quite weak.  His short kicking game without doubt looks excellent.

Thoughts?

He kicked a couple of goals from 50+ 

[Wunders 385]

11 minutes ago, The Chazz said:

SONS, my concerns about Laurie, based on that 4min clip above, is that his kicking over 40m looks quite weak.  His short kicking game without doubt looks excellent.

Thoughts?

I thought similar, the video showed lots of nice shorter kicks - but didn't see any from the 50 or further out in the clip (doesn't mean he can't). Regardless, he looked good and reminded me of a Gresham / Higgins type and would be happy to have him (especially if he can apply F50 pressure - we have only 1 pressure forward in our best 22 so far (pickett, would love a second to help crumb under 3 talls).

[The Chazz 4,077]

9 minutes ago, adonski said:

He kicked a couple of goals from 50+ 

2:58 he kicked one from just inside 50m and it bounced through.

The last goal at 3:42 (which they replayed about 4 times through to the end of the clip) did travel the 50m distance.

As I said, I'm basing my view on a 4 minute clip, hence why I asked SONS for more info.  But of the two samples that you have provided, only one of them had the legs, so I'm wanting a greater body of work to make an assessment on.

 

[spirit of norm smith 12,885]

1 hour ago, The Chazz said:

SONS, my concerns about Laurie, based on that 4min clip above, is that his kicking over 40m looks quite weak.  His short kicking game without doubt looks excellent.

Thoughts?

Yes I understand the query. I saw him in 2010 get the footy in an APS match and he got about 35 possessions to dominate the match even as a 17 year old.  He tends to bring others into the game rather than run and try to kick long range 50m goal.  I like his creativity and ability to evade. 

[spirit of norm smith 12,885]

Correction.  I saw Bailey Laurie in 2019 playing for Caulfield Grammar. He dominated.