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CHANGES: Rd 18 vs Essendon


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14 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Ess are setting themselves to win next week:  This week they left out Hooker (omitted) and Hurley (injured but not on their injury list) and didn't bring in Francis, Laverde or Bellchambers who were all 'Test'.

Wouldn't be surprised to see the majority of them come in next week.

They lost 20% of their membership this year and will be keen to end the season on a high note - that means our scalp. 

They will give it all they have and we need to be ready.  Can't mark it down as a win for us.

Concur - their fans are furious right now so next week the Dons will deliver the best they can

Edited by Waltham33
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On 9/12/2020 at 10:41 PM, Dr.D said:

most important game for the year? you've got to be kidding? The game of the year was vs Sydney and then consequently Freo. These games are meaningless.We can't make finals unless some big upsets happen. 

If there is a chance you take it. Don't you Dr D?

In it to win it I say.

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57 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

Possibly yes Ham.  In that case you would need an out though.  Frittata, Hunt?

Hunt, if not Brown.

Understand that Brown played a good game, but he isn't the future of the club, neither is Hunt, so would much rather LJ in over either of those two. Going forward I would rather see it like this.

In: LJ, Harmes
Out: Brown, Hunt

I like the look of Hunt up forward, but he just goes missing far too often (ala Geelong game earlier in the season).

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56 minutes ago, DubDee said:

The team played well and worked for each other. I wouldnt make any changes unless needed through injury or rest. 

Bringing in an out of form player like Harmes doesn’t make sense to me

Because an out of form Harmes is still a 40% improvement (based on actual statistical evidence ... season averages) on an in form ANB

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5 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

Because an out of form Harmes is still a 40% improvement (based on actual statistical evidence ... season averages) on an in form ANB

Who have been playing completely different roles. Easier to pick up Cheap touches down back

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6 minutes ago, Ham said:

Hunt, if not Brown.

Understand that Brown played a good game, but he isn't the future of the club, neither is Hunt, so would much rather LJ in over either of those two. Going forward I would rather see it like this.

In: LJ, Harmes
Out: Brown, Hunt

I like the look of Hunt up forward, but he just goes missing far too often (ala Geelong game earlier in the season).

Couldn't agree more.  It's a shame as at one point he looked quite promising.  Out of the 35 players that have graced the field so far this season he is presently sitting rock bottom of the stats averages, approx 50% off his 2019 season average.  One of the rare players to improve on his 2018 result last year (12% up).  Fallen off a cliff.

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4 minutes ago, DubDee said:

Who have been playing completely different roles. Easier to pick up Cheap touches down back

If he is played in the same coverage / pushing forward role he will trounce ANB DD.

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23 minutes ago, DubDee said:

Who have been playing completely different roles. Easier to pick up Cheap touches down back

No  cheap touches just watch Smith  5 possessions is his best for his output down back mostly ineffective . 

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1 hour ago, DubDee said:

The team played well and worked for each other. I wouldnt make any changes unless needed through injury or rest. 

Bringing in an out of form player like Harmes doesn’t make sense to me

Agree for better or worse I can see no one that did not play last week who is better than the team that played on Saturday. Of course there may be a injury or two that need replacing. 

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15 minutes ago, nosoupforme said:

No  cheap touches just watch Smith  5 possessions is his best for his output down back mostly ineffective . 

The old stats watchers...  

I thought Smith did alright actually aside from that HTB.  won some good 1 on 1 battles with Cameron etc.  

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47 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

Because an out of form Harmes is still a 40% improvement (based on actual statistical evidence ... season averages) on an in form ANB

Using actual statistical evidence you are completely wrong, given ANBs role is to play as a pressure forward, he has more tackles, score involvements, one percenters, goal assists and of course has kicked 5 goals straight (to 2.2). Throwing up stats to compare players who play in a different spot on the ground is just used to have a pot shot at a player and very lazy, I'm sure you'll use ANBs lack of hit outs compared to Gawn to call for his axing next. 

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7 minutes ago, Red and Blue realist said:

Using actual statistical evidence you are completely wrong, given ANBs role is to play as a pressure forward, he has more tackles, score involvements, one percenters, goal assists and of course has kicked 5 goals straight (to 2.2). Throwing up stats to compare players who play in a different spot on the ground is just used to have a pot shot at a player and very lazy, I'm sure you'll use ANBs lack of hit outs compared to Gawn to call for his axing next. 

Missing the point R&B.  I'm saying if he plays the "same role" as ANB he will outperform most of the time.  His level of output (possessions / delivery) is at another level when not being played off HB.

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I'd be bringing in LJ (if fit), Hibberd (if fit), and Lockhart while my outs would be Nev, Brown and Hunt.

Smith goes to Stringer, Tominlison to Daniher, allowing May/Lever to provide the support. I'd try and put Fritsch on Saad and make him go deep forward as much as possible, then have Melksham on Ridley, really kill off the attack from their defensive 50.

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Both the Essendon backline and forwardline are not particularly tall - two talls and 1 medium in the forwardline and 2 talls in the backline. On this basis, I don't think we need to make any structural composition changes to better match up.

I think Hibbo is a better matchup on Stringer than Smith, if his ankle is right. Additionally I'd like to see Lockhart to Tipungwuti for Nev. Who is our backup for Lockhart if Tipungwuti gets off the leash?

I'd also like to see Hunt go for a run up the ground like Mitch Brown did on Saturday, who was awesome. (I expect this from Ed Langdon every week now).

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Just now, Rusty Nails said:

Missing the point R&B.  I'm saying if he plays the "same role" as ANB he will outperform most of the time.  His level of output (possessions / delivery) is at another level when not being played off HB.

Your point was very badly made then, if you want Harmes back we'll then I think he'd need to come into the mid mix where of course he'd get more possessions than off HB. I don't think Harmes could play as a forward pressure player, while he's good at tagging the best mids, this is because his attacking mindset kicks in and he goes ball hunting. Whereas ANB knows his role is to tackle and pressure the ball exiting defense, not high stat stuff, but I'm sure coaches love players who sacrifice stats to play the team role. 

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13 minutes ago, Red and Blue realist said:

Your point was very badly made then, if you want Harmes back we'll then I think he'd need to come into the mid mix where of course he'd get more possessions than off HB. I don't think Harmes could play as a forward pressure player, while he's good at tagging the best mids, this is because his attacking mindset kicks in and he goes ball hunting. Whereas ANB knows his role is to tackle and pressure the ball exiting defense, not high stat stuff, but I'm sure coaches love players who sacrifice stats to play the team role. 

Not at all R&B.  You must have missed this part....coverage as in through the middle (back to his usual role) pushing forward.  The role is a bit different.  I think he gives us an extra rotation through the middle that ANB doesn't that we miss as well as some impact up forward.  Admittedly ANB does play a different role but personally between Kozzy, Spargo & Viney we should be able to bring a reasonable amount of forward pressure.  Bringing Harmes in allows Viney to rest forward a bit more bringing in another pressure medium / small forward into the mix.

 

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14 hours ago, 58er said:

Yes DR D what in the medical / football field constitutes an upset 

NOT GWS beating Saints who have lost last 4 out of 5 !!!

you realise if gws win we still won't make finals? The % diffis far too great. 

maybe actually crunch all of the numbers first. The season ended against fremantle. 

 

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1 hour ago, nosoupforme said:

If there is a chance you take it. Don't you Dr D?

In it to win it I say.

*Shakes head.

I'm just posting this now so I don't have to sit and read 6 months of "oh if we only beat Fremantle and sydney. we should've made finals.We're a rabble of a club" etc. Because all the optimistic supporters who care about a meaningless round 18 are going to be the same supporters complaining when we miss finals. I know them better than they know themselves.

By all means be annoyed we missed finals but at least do it at the point when it happened and that was against freo and syd.

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46 minutes ago, Jaded said:

Melksham will never be dropped. He will need to have a double amputation before Goodwin leaves his bestie out of the side. 

 

I expect Melksham to continue his defensive role and play on Ridley.

Hibberd (if fit) for Jetta (injured or not) is the only change I would make. 

Why wouldn't the Match Committee reward the team that played GWS? We've been saying for years that our main problem is psychological. Changing a winning combination doesn't appear to me to be a way of building confidence into the players.

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54 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

you realise if gws win we still won't make finals? The % diffis far too great. 

maybe actually crunch all of the numbers first. The season ended against fremantle. 

 

Dr.D, the odds are against us making it but GWS and the Dees are two of the higher scoring sides in the competition, so a combined Dees win / Saints loss margin of 54 or 55 points is not beyond the pale, particularly as our game is an afternoon fixture that hopefully will see dry (no rain OR dew) conditions with correspondingly higher scoring...

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