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THE RUN HOME 2020


Whispering_Jack
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1 hour ago, Demon17 said:

The upside is that the Giant won't know the otucomes of key results before they play on Friday and would at least give it a crack.

In 2017, the Crows had secured top spot so rolled over to west coast in perth and we lost out on their resulting %.

That is a damn good point, fingers crossed GWS pull their finger out for it. They looked ridiculously slow on transitions against us.....we’ve got to be one of the slowest teams to transition!

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The way this season has ended after being set up nicely is extremely depressing.

I'm resigned to the fact that we have already not made it and if it all happens and falls into place for us then I'll be pleasantly surprised. I'm simply not going to stress over it. We [censored] it up and frankly we don't really deserve it.

I'll only get really mad if for some reason results happen to fall our way but we don't get in because we couldn't beat the hapless Bombers. That is life as a Demons fan for anyone needing a dictionary definition.

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After the swans and Freo games, I was so gutted, a lot of my emotional interest in the season ended.  if we can beat the bombers and end up on 9 Wins 8 losses, that is an OK result considering the 5-17 season we just had. It is critical we continue to make changes and improve though

if we happen to scrape into finals and get smashed by the eagles, it doesnt change much.  it would then be a 9-9 season

having said that, I'll be cheering the boys on regardless

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1 PORT ADELAIDE Played 16, 52 pts, 136.4%

NEXT ROUND: Collingwood 

2 BRISBANE LIONS Played 16, 52 pts, 124.7%

NEXT ROUND: Carlton 

3 RICHMOND Played 16, 46pts, 125.8%

NEXT ROUND: Adelaide 

4 GEELONG Played 16, 44 pts, 138.9%

 NEXT ROUND: Sydney

5 WEST COAST Played 16, 44 pts, 116.0%

 NEXT ROUND: North Melbourne

6 COLLINGWOOD Played 16, 38 pts, 112.2%

NEXT ROUND: Port Adelaide

7 ST KILDA Played 16, 36 pts, 111.4%

 NEXT ROUND: GWS Giants 

8 W. BULLDOGS Played 16, 36 pts, 103.9%

 NEXT ROUND: Fremantle 

9 MELBOURNE Played 16, 32 points, 106.2%

 NEXT ROUND: Essendon 

10 GWS GIANTS Played 16, 32 points, 100.6%

 NEXT ROUND: St Kilda

11 FREMANTLE Played 16, 28 points, 96.7%

 NEXT ROUND: Western Bulldogs 

12 CARLTON Played 16, 28 points, 95.6%

 NEXT ROUND: Brisbane Lions

13 ESSENDON Played 16, 26 points, 79.6%

 NEXT ROUND: Melbourne

14 GOLD COAST Played 16, 22 points, 94.8%

 NEXT ROUND: Hawthorn 

15 SYDNEY Played 16, 20 points, 82.0%

 NEXT ROUND: Geelong

16 HAWTHORN Played 16, 16 points, 78.8%

 NEXT ROUND: Gold Coast 

17 NORTH MELBOURNE Played 16, 12 points, 71.3%

 NEXT ROUND: West Coast

18 ADELAIDE Played 16, 12 points, 65.8%

 NEXT ROUND: Richmond
 

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11 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

I'm not feeling the desperation, anxiety and excitement that I had in the week leading into round 23 2017 due to lockdown and being disconnected from AFL this year.

With that being said, this year will be easier to stomach if we miss out (assuming we beat Essendon) because we would've held our end of the bargain in round 23 compared to 2017 when we threw our spot away by losing to Collingwood.

I think the Dogs will be too professional for Freo and St Kilda will either beat GWS or have a small loss, leaving us at 9th place.

 

Easier to stomach because we got beaten by two teams in the bottom 5 in consecutive weeks?

That makes me even angrier at this club.

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A really interesting dynamic is that the only realistic chance of making finals is if dogs lose.

If they beat the saints both will end up on 36 points. But the giants  would need to win by 9 goals odd goals to make up the percentage gap with them. And would then still need us to lose.

So to be a chance they still need us and the dogs to lose. But crucially for us they need make 3.3% on the dogs as well. So they have to win by four odd gials to have a shot.

Good for us as they play Friday night and us sat arvo and  have to attack the saints and go for it to be a chance. No putting the cue in the rack if they are a couple up wirh 5 to go. 

A good game to bet over the total match point line.

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Perhaps ironically, GWS will be hoping/needing to pass us (and/or the Dogs) on percentage, so will look to beat the Saints by as much as possible, and in the process boosting our chances of making it.

The  gap between us and the Saints is 5.19%, which works out to about 50 points in this short and low-scoring with everyone lurking around 1000 point for/against.

Call it nine goals to make up, combining the amount St Kilda lose by and the amount we smash Essendon by.

Or the Dogs lose, we win, obviously.

Sorry if I'm just repeating everything already said.  I'm finding walking through it out loud a bit therapeutic.

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4 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

Perhaps ironically, GWS will be hoping/needing to pass us (and/or the Dogs) on percentage, so will look to beat the Saints by as much as possible, and in the process boosting our chances of making it.

The  gap between us and the Saints is 5.19%, which works out to about 50 points in this short and low-scoring with everyone lurking around 1000 point for/against.

Call it nine goals to make up, combining the amount St Kilda lose by and the amount we smash Essendon by.

Or the Dogs lose, we win, obviously.

Sorry if I'm just repeating everything already said.  I'm finding walking through it out loud a bit therapeutic.

How likely do you think we are to make up this 9 goal deficit 

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3 minutes ago, Pickett2Jackson said:

 

Its only 24 points either way.  GWs could  easily turn it on and beat the Saint by 40.  We would then only need to beat the Dons by around 10 points.

They played awfully against us. Very hard to see them beating the saints (a decent side who never seem to get killed) by 40

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15 minutes ago, Elegt said:

They played awfully against us. Very hard to see them beating the saints (a decent side who never seem to get killed) by 40

Either way if GWS win then we know what the equation is. An incredible situation to be in would be GWS beating saints by a slender margin of under 20 points and it creating a reason for us to go in guns blazing in the last quarter even if we are comfortably winning. 

I say bugger it all; Saints win, Dogs win, and we miss the finals, whatever! Let’s just focus on us giving Essendon fans a crap end to the season. The rest will go the way it goes. 

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17 minutes ago, Pates said:

Either way if GWS win then we know what the equation is. An incredible situation to be in would be GWS beating saints by a slender margin of under 20 points and it creating a reason for us to go in guns blazing in the last quarter even if we are comfortably winning. 

I say bugger it all; Saints win, Dogs win, and we miss the finals, whatever! Let’s just focus on us giving Essendon fans a crap end to the season. The rest will go the way it goes. 

Either way whoever is playing Eagles in Perth week 1 is getting demolished 

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38 minutes ago, Elegt said:

They played awfully against us. Very hard to see them beating the saints (a decent side who never seem to get killed) by 40

By my calculations (courtesy of the ladder predictor), if the Saints lose to GWS by 15 points and we can beat the Bummers by 25 points (optimistic, I know), we sneak in by 0.3%. 

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1 minute ago, Elegt said:

Either way whoever is playing Eagles in Perth week 1 is getting demolished 

Hehe well if the totally ridiculous were to happen with BOTH Saints and Dogs losing and us making up ground I have us facing the Pies in the first week. ?

6th-8th this year are totally making up the numbers. 

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18 minutes ago, hardtack said:

By my calculations (courtesy of the ladder predictor), if the Saints lose to GWS by 15 points and we can beat the Bummers by 25 points (optimistic, I know), we sneak in by 0.3%. 

It all depends on total points scored, I calculated by average points per game scored  we would probably need an 8 goal differentoal 

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