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THE RUN HOME 2020


Whispering_Jack
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Umm don't we have to beat the druggos. If we do then we will be relying on the filth to lose both their games. Saints will beat GWS and the dogs won't lose to Hawthorn or Freo.

Maybe this is my anti filth bias comming out.

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So as it stands, to make it we need to beat Essendon and then:

  1. the Dogs lose to Fremantle; or
  2. Collingwood loses to both Gold Coast and Port; or
  3. St Kilda loses to GWS and we bridge the current percentage gap - which is, on my maths, around a 50-point swing (i.e. we win by 25, they lose by 25).

Two of these options could be off the table by the time we play - Collingwood plays tomorrow night and St Kilda v GWS is Friday night.

But, even if those results go against us, we will be playing on Saturday with a spot in the 8 up for grabs, as a win will at least temporarily put us back above the Dogs. They failed to catch our percentage today so provided we beat Essendon, they'll have to then beat Fremantle to get back above us.

If Collingwood loses tomorrow night, then we'll also be waiting until next Monday night to see if Collingwood also loses to Port.

The least stressful way home for us at this point is for St Kilda to lose on Friday and we win by enough to bridge the percentage gap on Saturday. We'll be locked in if that happens no matter what.

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Together with my colleagues of the cloth, I have arranged an interdenominational day of prayer in Brisbane commencing with a dawn service in the city, followed by a march to Woolloongabba where we will circle the cricket ground and offer prayers for the health and welfare of the Gold Coast Suns as they undertake their mission to beat Collingwood. If successful, there will be further services next week targeting St Kilda, Essendon, Footscray with a repeat of tomorrow’s event on Monday week. Amen.

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5 minutes ago, The Rebbe said:

Together with my colleagues of the cloth, I have arranged an interdenominational day of prayer in Brisbane commencing with a dawn service in the city, followed by a march to Woolloongabba where we will circle the cricket ground and offer prayers for the health and welfare of the Gold Coast Suns as they undertake their mission to beat Collingwood. If successful, there will be further services next week targeting St Kilda, Essendon, Footscray with a repeat of tomorrow’s event on Monday week. Amen.

Don;'t forget Melbourne. We need prayers more than anyone.

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15 minutes ago, The Rebbe said:

Yes, as advised, we will be targeting Essendon. Their entire team will turn into a pillar of salt at 2:10 pm this Saturday.

We need a miracle.

Like the Red Sea parting .

If you could ask the question we'd all be grateful.

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1 hour ago, bandicoot said:

The best chance dees have is for the saints to lose and dees to win big. 

there are some systemic issues with the club that will need to be addressed at seasons end regardless of the result. 

Maybe. Freo's been playing some decent footy lately so they're probably just as likely to win as we are to make up an ~8 goals worth of percentage on St Kilda after they lose to GWS.

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1 hour ago, Accepting Mediocrity said:

What's the bet that either:

1) We [censored] the Bombers, but finish 0.1% behind St Kilda; or

2) All the other results go our way, but Joe Daniher slots one from the boundary to beat us after the siren.

If we lose under any circumstances I really hope the other results don’t go our way. That would be the salt in the wound. 

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Sorry if this plan was mentioned before . I haven’t read all contributions.....Another scenario is GWS beats Saints by 3 goals , we beat Essendon by 6 goals , that’s fixed the percentage ,Pies and Dogs win out and we go through at Saints expense 

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If the Giants can beat St K by even a point then for the best part of 2 hours on Saturday afternoon our destiny is in our own hands as we'll know exactly how much we need to win by to overtake them and pilfer their finals berth. If that's 10 goals then so be it. We've done it 3 times this year already. If the Dogs win too then they can join us. 

If we fall short of what we need, be it by 1 point or 59, but still win our game then we're at least still in the mix until the Sunday evening. 

After losses to Sydney and Freo could we really have hoped for anything better going into round 18 ? 

No, I'm not expecting GC to do a number on Collingwood tomorrow night. 

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1 minute ago, Rab D Nesbitt said:

If the Giants can beat St K by even a point then for the best part of 2 hours on Saturday afternoon our destiny is in our own hands as we'll know exactly how much we need to win by to overtake them and pilfer their finals berth.

Oh dear, didnt know they played the night before us.   If the Giants get up....  

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1 minute ago, Pickett2Jackson said:

Oh dear, didnt know they played the night before us.   If the Giants get up....  

It’s doubly good that it is played before us. Not only because if the Giants win we know how much we need to win by % wise but also it still gives the Giants incentive to win. If we played before them and won there is zero incentive for them to win as they have no chance to make it. 

 Not saying they wouldn’t try to win but perhaps mentally they may have check out. 

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2 minutes ago, Earl Hood said:

Not likely to happen now I think. A win against the Swans would have changed the maths but no we missed that boat yet again. 

We actually missed two boats in 4 days. 

Not to mention that a win against the Bulldogs a few weeks earlier would have made all this maths moot. 

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13 hours ago, Hell Bent said:

If Giants beat Saints by 3 goals for example,  red have to beat Essendon by roughly 6 goals. 

Yes it's a tough ask but it is possible. Will be barracking hard for Giants next week! 

 

Sorry Hell, just read your piece after I wrote  the same scenario 

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3 minutes ago, Pickett2Jackson said:

Oh dear, didnt know they played the night before us.   If the Giants get up....  

Just let this week play out in bitesize chunks P2J. 

Forget about torturing yourself by watching tomorrow night and save that for Friday. Just check the scores the following morning like you would your lottery numbers. The odds of being pleasantly surprised will be similar. 

On Friday just will GWS to get over the line by hook or by crook. Cheer Toby Green if you find it necessary. 

Assuming the Giants come out on top then we have a window of time on Saturday where we are totally in control of our own destiny. Nothing that has happened in the preceding 17 weeks or in the following 48 hours will matter. We have one final opportunity to get the job done or go home. 

We get the chocolates but the numbers don't stack up ? We have one more go at the lottery. 

 

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2 hours ago, Accepting Mediocrity said:

What's the bet that either:

1) We [censored] the Bombers, but finish 0.1% behind St Kilda; or

2) All the other results go our way, but Joe Daniher slots one from the boundary to beat us after the siren.

I'm not sure what will be worse.

I think the former - missing out for the second time in four years by a tiny percentage. Will make us go back to the close losses (Brisbane, Geelong) and the moments within games (letting Carlton back in from 42 points up, conceding a goal in the last second of the Fremantle loss, Tomlinson's miss vs Geelong, Bennell's miss vs Brisbane, Hannan failing to see Viney on his own in the final minutes of the Brisbane loss...etc...).

Maybe not though. Maybe losing to Essendon and then watching Fremantle belt the Dogs would be worse.

Not sure.

But I'm mentally prepared for both.

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