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THE RUN HOME 2020


Whispering_Jack
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15 minutes ago, TeamPlayedFine39 said:

Can't speak with any confidence about us winning both, but I think the Saints losing to both WCE and GWS is the most likely way through for us.

 

 

I was confident WC would beat St Kilda until I found out West Coast were missing their entire 2018 premiership midfield.

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54 minutes ago, pitmaster said:

Sadly would not be amazed if we lost both. Would be equally unsurprised if we sneaked two wins and finished ninth. Either way the last two weeks have been profoundly sobering, deflating, disappointing and much more.

Either of your scenarios will be goodwins worst career nightmare. 

And the Board's for the unbelievable ameuterish contract extension.

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1 hour ago, old dee said:

We have to win both games and by reasonable margins. Cannot see it happening. 

Not necessarily.

I haven't done the maths but percentage is only relevant here if we are passing St Kilda. We're already 6% in front of the Dogs and to take their spot we have two win twice and they have to lose at least once. I'm sure it's mathematically possible for that to happen and we still concede 6% to them, but it's not likely.

40 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

I suspect we'll lose to GWS.

If not the Dogs will do just enough. Bont kicked the winning goal against the Eagles that was touched on the line and came from a 7m kick. That's the kind of BS that's perfect to knock us off

Agree with this. Big focus on the touch, no focus at all on the pass that was blatantly sub-15m.

21 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

The Dogs beating West Coast was the major set back IMO. I was surprised Demonlanders didn't make a song and dance about it, and a couple were here were even happy they won.

Knowing us we'll beat GWS and then be down by 7 goals at qtr time against Essendon.

Err, surely our losses to Sydney and Fremantle were the major set backs?

20 minutes ago, P-man said:

Would be a waste of a spot. At least the Dogs might shake things up.

As @sue said above, if we finish 8th and the Dogs miss out, we'll have deserved the spot more than them.

I mean, if it happens, it will require the Dogs to lose to Hawthorn or Fremantle. Which will be at least one loss to a bad side, the very thing we're upset about us doing.

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1 hour ago, Accepting Mediocrity said:

Look on the bright side.

For just the 4th time in the last 14 seasons, we are still a mathematical chance of making finals with 2 weeks left to play.

Progress!

And we're playing mutiple games in September! Even when we were runners up in 2000, we only played once in September.

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The first result goes our way.

Next up is us. If we lose, it's all over.

But, if we win, we then turn our attention to 3.35pm Sunday when Hawthorn plays the Dogs in Adelaide. The Dogs' first game outside of Queensland since Round 10. And indeed their second of only two games at all played outside of Queensland since leaving Victoria. How ridiculous.

And then Monday night closes out with Collingwood vs Gold Coast.

Edited by titan_uranus
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On 9/10/2020 at 3:33 PM, TeamPlayedFine39 said:

By my count...

Saints have Eagles and GWS.

Bulldogs have Hawthorn and Fremantle.

GWS have Melbourne and Saints.

melbourne have GWS and Essendon.

 

We win both and Saints lose both, we're in.
We win both and Bulldogs lose one, we're in.

Thanks for the analysis Team now when i sit down to night to watch the game I will know exactly what is at stake

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The easiest way home for us is a Dogs loss. The only way for us to miss if we win and the Dogs lose once is for some sort of whack percentage disaster where GWS beat St Kilda by enough to pass us but not enough for us to pass St Kilda. Not even sure if that's possible.

If the Dogs win both, next best option is probably the GWS-St Kilda option.

The risk with Collingwood is that, even if they drop the Gold Coast game, I believe Port is locked into top 2 already. However, given RIchmond has Adelaide next week, and assuming Brisbane beats Sydney tomorrow, a Port win sees them avoid Richmond.

Anyway, it's all getting ahead of us a bit. Must beat Essendon first.

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22 minutes ago, Pickett2Jackson said:

One of the combinations will come up for us...  we just have to beat Essendon.

The good thing about the fixture is that GWS play St. Kilda before our game.

If we played before them and we won it would give them zero incentive to beat the Saints.

Their season is still live when they play.

Having said that we need them to have a big win and we need a big win too. We need to make up 5%. Anyone done some numbers on margins?

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17 minutes ago, bandicoot said:

Odds aren’t up yet on Sportsbet but either saints or dogs losing are both long shots. 
Typical ‘brand’ Melbourne will see us finishing 9th. 

My nightmare scenario is Saints not losing by enough and us not winning by enough and we miss out on the 8 by a minuscule amount of percentage.

It's the Melbourne Way.

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37 minutes ago, Demonland said:

The good thing about the fixture is that GWS play St. Kilda before our game.

If we played before them and we won it would give them zero incentive to beat the Saints.

Their season is still live when they play.

Having said that we need them to have a big win and we need a big win too. We need to make up 5%. Anyone done some numbers on margins?

The weather for carrara next Saturday:

Saturday 19 September

Forecast Icon
Min
13 °C
Max
24 °C
Precis
 
Possible rainfall:
0 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain:
40% 

Gold Coast area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Winds easterly 15 to 20 km/h turning northeasterly 25 to 35 km/h during the morning.

The next routine forecast will be issued at 4:50 am AEST Sunday.

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