Dees to win flag

[chookrat 3,776]

I reckon we are in good shape for a tilt at the flag this year and here are my reasons;

1. Eight matches into round 5 we are sitting at 1-3. Improve our composure in forward half and we are likely to find ourselves at 3-3 by the end of round 6.

2. Our list is fit, with no injuries to our best 33 players. The expected compressed fixture will work in our favour with ability to back up matches every 4-5 days through fitness and ability to rest and rotate players across all lines.

3. Our contest work is a real strength and much better than last season. Defensively we are holding up well and despite some poor discipline re being switched on we are keeping teams to a low score.

4. Our ball use can be addressed through our team playing together more, playing more than two matches in a row  tweaking game style and bringing in better ball users, e.g. Harley Bennell and Nathan Jones.

5. Goodwin's management style is very much process based, we saw this in 2018 where once we got going we were the most dominant team for decent parts of the season.

The next 4-5 weeks will tell us alot. I'm confident we can turn things around and be at 6-4 heading into the last 7 rounds.

Edited July 9, 2020 by chookrat
Cannot calculate number of matches per round

[Mel Bourne 3,647]

Well, this has come from out of nowhere. 

[brendan 3,380]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

ummm

no

[titan_uranus 22,251]

I expected this to be satire.

[bazza226 66]

Rose coloured glasses! Super optimist! Have you put your money where your mouth is?

[tiers 2,761]

Not impossible but on current exposed form not probable.

Happy to wear egg on face.

[Lord Travis 10,157]

We're statistically the worst converting team in history (since stats were kept). Unless our forwardline and midfield do a complete 180 form-wise, there's no chance of us winning the flag this year. It's getting to the stage where we'd basically need to win 8-9 matches in a row, something we couldn't even do when in ripping form in the 2nd half of 2018. That's not to say we don't have the building blocks to win within a few years, but it's not going to happen this year. 

[YesitwasaWin4theAges 5,791]

27 minutes ago, chookrat said:

I reckon we are in good shape for a tilt at the flag this year and here are my reasons;

1. Eight matches into round 5 we are sitting at 1-3. Improve our composure in forward half and we are likely to find ourselves at 3-3 by the end of round 6.

2. Our list is fit, with no injuries to our best 33 players. The expected compressed fixture will work in our favour with ability to back up matches every 4-5 days through fitness and ability to rest and rotate players across all lines.

3. Our contest work is a real strength and much better than last season. Defensively we are holding up well and despite some poor discipline re being switched on we are keeping teams to a low score.

4. Our ball use can be addressed through our team playing together more, playing more than two matches in a row  tweaking game style and bringing in better ball users, e.g. Harley Bennell and Nathan Jones.

5. Goodwin's management style is very much process based, we saw this in 2018 where once we got going we were the most dominant team for decent parts of the season.

The next 4-5 weeks will tell us alot. I'm confident we can turn things around and be at 6-4 heading into the last 7 rounds.

This is the plot from Teen Wolf? Cue Tommy McDonald turning into the Wolf.

I learnt this early about Simon, he is extremely stubborn, iam not expecting a 2nd tall in the side for this exact reason.

Edited July 9, 2020 by Win4theAges

[chookrat 3,776]

3 minutes ago, Lord Travis said:

We're statistically the worst converting team in history (since stats were kept). Unless our forwardline and midfield do a complete 180 form-wise, there's no chance of us winning the flag this year. It's getting to the stage where we'd basically need to win 8-9 matches in a row, something we couldn't even do when in ripping form in the 2nd half of 2018. That's not to say we don't have the building blocks to win within a few years, but it's not going to happen this year. 

I hear what you are saying Lord Travis but I don't think our conversion problem is as hard a fix as it seems.

Re wins needed, we are 2 wins out of the 8 and all but one of the teams in the 8 have played an extra round to us. 10 wins should be enough, which is the Essendon match + 8 of the next 12 rounds. I seriously don't think we are in anywhere near as bad a position as supporters and the media report 

[Pickett2Jackson 3,904]

Jayden Hunt to win Brownlow

 

 

 

 

 

[chookrat 3,776]

17 minutes ago, bazza226 said:

Rose coloured glasses! Super optimist! Have you put your money where your mouth is?

We're paying $81 which I wouldn't mind dropping a cheeky $100. Just not sure I'm willing to sign up to a gambling app.

[Robbie57 1,990]

I invite Ron B to post: "well that escalated quickly".

[YesitwasaWin4theAges 5,791]

19 minutes ago, Lord Travis said:

We're statistically the worst converting team in history (since stats were kept). Unless our forwardline and midfield do a complete 180 form-wise, there's no chance of us winning the flag this year. It's getting to the stage where we'd basically need to win 8-9 matches in a row, something we couldn't even do when in ripping form in the 2nd half of 2018. That's not to say we don't have the building blocks to win within a few years, but it's not going to happen this year. 

Anyone watch AFL 360 last night? apparently Melbourne is one of 5 clubs trialling a special stick on padding that goes over the laces of footy boots to improve accuracy and improve skills in wet conditions.

Edited July 9, 2020 by Win4theAges

[ManDee 7,076]

3 minutes ago, Win4theAges said:

Anyone watch AFL 360 last night? apparently Melbourne is one of 5 clubs trialling a special stick on padding that goes over the laces of footy boots to improve inaccuracy and improve skills in wet conditions.

Not sure that we want to improve inaccuracy. But if it improves accuracy I'm for it. 

[spalding 1,118]

I took the $81 early this week.

Eternal optimist, but I'm also not a bad punter - so I hoping that they can at least win this week, and then maybe the week after and possibly get on a bit of a roll.

I think the scheduling and lack of injuries could work for us as Chookrat does, but they have to get some confidence quickly. 

We do have issues, but confidence makes a massive difference (see the first 40 minutes of the Carlton game).

I have split my bet into numerous small ones, so that I have a cash out option if my theory plays out (ie if we are 5/5 by our 10th game and other teams are dropping off, I could see our odds coming back to 20/1 or 30/1 - as the Tiges, Pies and even WCE (before they get to Perth) appear vulnerable mentally because of isolation and not playing with huge home crowd support.

[YesitwasaWin4theAges 5,791]

1 minute ago, ManDee said:

Not sure that we want to improve inaccuracy. But if it improves accuracy I'm for it. 

Thanks.

[YesitwasaWin4theAges 5,791]

https://coupler.foxsports.com.au/api/v1/article/amp/afl/afl-2020-new-kicking-boot-technology-kicking-accuracy-state-of-the-game-afl-afl-goalkicking-tom-morris/news-story/d2cef1d3ad01bcc18297143e1ac16d34

[Demon Dynasty 15,353]

Chook whatever you've been downing during this virus nonsense it's bloody working!  Care to fill us in!??

[Mazer Rackham 14,969]

Which flag is this? The white flag?

[spirit of norm smith 12,884]

I love it. Optimism.  I believe it has been occasionally sighted here but disappears very quickly and is hard to locate.  Thank you for refreshing my memory.  

[Demon_spurs 1,656]

Although I'm not so sure about being close to a flag, but I think we could be thereabouts with a few tweaks to the set up. Everyone has an opinion here and in the media. But Chook makes some good points, fit list, getting plenty of the ball, lots of forward 50 entries...maybe just maybe

[Tarax Club 2,901]

17 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

I love it. Optimism.  I believe it has been occasionally sighted here but disappears very quickly and is hard to locate.  Thank you for refreshing my memory.  

 

All inquiries can be re-directed here.

Edited July 9, 2020 by Tarax Club

[BW511 2,241]

Love the optimism Chook, however what makes you think we can turn this around in a matter of weeks when the problem has existed for 18 months?

The ball is in the wrong hands at crucial times because of selection, unless Goody and co want to eat humble pie, that won't change.

[Ethan Tremblay 28,343]

Onward and upward!

 

How very Melbourne like, make the GF in a compromised season and it’s played at the MCG with no fans. 

Edited July 9, 2020 by Ethan Tremblay

[The Swimming Dee 1,843]

I've read some crazy stuff on here but this takes the cake!

Absolutely love the optimism though