What has happened to Clayton Oliver?

[binman 37,746]

5 minutes ago, A F said:

Disagree with this mate.

Trac had a solid season last year, but was still behind Oliver's output and then has played, what, 7 H&A games this year? 

I agree that Trac has probably had a marginally better season (off a very small sample size) than Clarry, but this seems way too early to call.

I think the fairer statement, IMO, would be that Petracca has had a better 7 games than Oliver. But what holds Oliver so far above anyone else except Gawn is his consistency. 

All really good points. And accurate too.

Nice debate to have - who is the better player of two absolute guns

In terms of my thought experiment if i was the coach of the Saints and could take one of those tow players i would choose Tracc every day of the week.

I 100% agree Oliver is star. Have always thought so.

But as good as he is there are maybe 15 - 20 elite mids in the  AFL. And every top 10 of the draft has 4-5 more elite level mids.

Just look at last yeas draft - Rowel, Anderson and Green are all likely to be elite mids and there are no doubt 4 or 5 others. Very few players like Tracc however (though i like the look of green). 

How many players are there with traccs combination of power, strength, talent, skill, goal kicking power but most all ability to impact a game the way he did on Sunday? Martin and Dangerfield would be the only others at them moment. When is the last player we have had like him?

Tracc is a difference maker. Ans yes it has taken until this year to really start showing that but that is understandable given his physique. Mids can start impacting in their first season, as Oliver did.

A better analogy for Tracc would be a big as it is not until he reaches his full physical power that he is going to reach his full potential.

[Binmans PA 25,890]

7 minutes ago, daisycutter said:

errr.....make that only 6 games this year

6 it is then. Struggling to keep up with things in such a strange year.

[daisycutter 28,451]

6 minutes ago, ManDee said:

So Binnie who would you take 01010000 01100101 01110100 01110010 01100001 01100011 01100011 01100001  or   01101111 01101100 01101001 01110110 01100101 01110010 ?

obviously #X'F2'

edit: in ebcdic naturally 

Edited July 22, 2020 by daisycutter

[Binmans PA 25,890]

6 minutes ago, binman said:

All really good points. And accurate too.

Nice debate to have - who is the better player of two absolute guns

In terms of my thought experiment if i was the coach of the Saints and could take one of those tow players i would choose Tracc every day of the week.

I 100% agree Oliver is star. Have always thought so.

But as good as he is there are maybe 15 - 20 elite mids in the  AFL. And every top 10 of the draft has 4-5 more elite level mids.

Just look at last yeas draft - Rowel, Anderson and Green are all likely to be elite mids and there are no doubt 4 or 5 others. Very few players like Tracc however (though i like the look of green). 

How many players are there with traccs combination of power, strength, talent, skill, goal kicking power but most all ability to impact a game the way he did on Sunday? Martin and Dangerfield would be the only others at them moment. When is the last player we have had like him?

Tracc is a difference maker. Ans yes it has taken until this year to really start showing that but that is understandable given his physique. Mids can start impacting in their first season, as Oliver did.

A better analogy for Tracc would be a big as it is not until he reaches his full physical power that he is going to reach his full potential.

I'd take the consistent extractor before I'd take the explosive burst, x-factor player, but that's just me. I think great midfields need both and it's great having both on our side.

[Dwight Schrute 16,722]

Seriously? the 23 year old who's already had a top 10 brownlow finish, All Australian, won 1 or 2 best and fairests? can't remember and some podium finishes to go with it

he's going fine. 

the scary thing is, he and Petracca will both improve. 

[Dr.D 1,771]

31 minutes ago, Patches O’houlihan said:

Seriously? the 23 year old who's already had a top 10 brownlow finish, All Australian, won 1 or 2 best and fairests? can't remember and some podium finishes to go with it

he's going fine. 

the scary thing is, he and Petracca will both improve. 

Agree.

I'm sorry Binman but as great as it is that Petracca is playing well, it's bittersweet as it's taken 6 years to get there which is too long.

I'm confident that Petracca could have reached this level years ago had he have put in the work. It doesn't take 6 years to develop the endurance tank to play midfield. 

 

[binman 37,746]

51 minutes ago, A F said:

I'd take the consistent extractor before I'd take the explosive burst, x-factor player, but that's just me. I think great midfields need both and it's great having both on our side.

Even right now? 

It would be an interesting question to ask all 17 other coaches. I suspect most, bit not ll would take tracc. right now. Two years ago probably Oliver as Tracc would have been more of a gamble and din't have the same commitment to training

But how good is it we have both!

[DeePressed 114]

I was very surprised to hear the negativity towards Oliver's defensive mindset. 

Has been in top 10 tacklers most years, not just cheap tackles at stoppages either. 

Last year he was trying to do both inside and outside. Often leaving him dinking handballs to try and get himself in a better position to receive, get clear and kick it. He has a 'see ball get ball' footy brain. This to his detriment at times.

He had a poor game against Richmond, obviously they worked on things. 

His game on Sunday was fantastic. He played a mature role. Spreading better and took quite a few intercept marks by playing a kick behind. 

Once his kicking improves and starts hitting the scoreboard, look out!!

2 x B&F  1 x AA and he turned 23 today ?

[Lucifers Hero 36,983]

Petracca may be a year older but he missed his first season rehabbing from an ACL so they have played the same no of games: CP 85/CO 88.  In fact iirc Oliver debuted before Petracca.  Petracca debuted in round six 2016.  Oliver in round 1 of that year.

Other than age/games it is difficult to compare as they have had different roles.  Petracca was our leading goal kicker last year in a team with poor fwd connection and the ball ping-ponged its way in then out of the fwd line.  Oliver was Oliver doing all the great work in the middle.

Into the future:

Oliver runs the risk of becoming an 'accumulator' that doesn't really hurt the opposition and isn't getting the best value from his hard work in getting the ball.  He has some weaknesses to work on.

Petracca is influencing game results and hurting the opposition in the process be it turnovers, ball movement or scoring chains/involvements.  He is rapidly becoming the complete package.  I can't see any real weaknesses.

They'll both be mfc champions and AFL stars but I have a feeling Petracca will outshine Oliver.  He is just getting going.  Not sure if Oliver is starting to plateau, admittedly at a very high level.

Will totally enjoy watching them both create havoc on the G in the red and blue!

Edited July 22, 2020 by Lucifer's Hero

[binman 37,746]

2 hours ago, Dr.D said:

When they're 18 or now?

If now, id take petracca marginally.

If at 18, i'd take Oliver by an country mile. 

You can't exclude the 4 years of top shelf football that Oliver has played while Petracca was wasting away in the forward 50. 

 So if they were in the same draft, at 18, Oliver by a mile. 

Good question.

I meant now actually and personally, like you id take tracc - though by some margin.

At 18? Not so sure. The percentage call would be Oliver. And perhaps i should cool my jets a bit with tracc given i've still got the post Hawks game glow on.

It would depend a bit of course of what the needs of my hypothetical list was but i'd like to think i'd still pick Tracc because of his unique combination of power, size and skills. 

And a unique combination of power, size and skills is exactly why i loved the selection of Jackson.

He was not the percentage pick. The percentage pick would have been an outside mid or winger with elite foot skills as that is what we sorely lack (and the sort of i think we should target next draft by the by) not ruck given we have gawn and recruited Preuss as back up.  

But Jackson has got what few do. In addition to his rare physical attributes he, like Tracc, has the X factor gene. 

There were some curious things about Tracc's draft.

One was Brayshaw and Trac  are good  examples of a gun mid and a player with x factor.  The discussion pre draft was that Tracc was a very good chance at going at number 1 and i don't recall gus being in that conversation. In the end it didn't matter because we had picks 2 and 3, and perhaps i'm reading too much into it but it was instructive i think they chose trac at 2 and Brayshaw at 3.

The other thing curious thing (and ultimately sad) thing that the Saints ended up taking McMartin because really good big forwards are rare as hens teeth in the draft, they needed one and even though he had unique attributes tracc would never be key forward.

The only winners were us really. 

(McMartin - such terrible luck. I really hope he can play again, if he wants to) 

[old55 21,212]

1 hour ago, binman said:

How many players are there with traccs combination of power, strength, talent, skill, goal kicking power but most all ability to impact a game the way he did on Sunday? Martin and Dangerfield would be the only others at them moment. When is the last player we have had like him?

Love him or hate him - JDG goes alright.

[binman 37,746]

10 minutes ago, Pollyanna said:

Love him or hate him - JDG goes alright.

Good point.He's in the same conversation for sure. 

Stringer was too at one point i guess. At least for a short time. Not now though. 

[binman 37,746]

2 hours ago, ManDee said:

https://codebeautify.org/binary-to-text

01101111 01101100 01101001 01110110 01100101 01110010

 

Don't you hate it when you think you are so clever but no one gets it.

I deocoded your message. Good work.

It did make me wonder if Petracca was too long

[Demonland 64,388]

4 hours ago, ManDee said:

https://codebeautify.org/binary-to-text

01101111 01101100 01101001 01110110 01100101 01110010

 

Don't you hate it when you think you are so clever but no one gets it.

I thought it was his kick to handball ratio.

[Pickett2Jackson 3,904]

4 hours ago, binman said:

How many players are there with traccs combination of power, strength, talent, skill, goal kicking power but most all ability to impact a game the way he did on Sunday? Martin and Dangerfield would be the only others at them moment. When is the last player we have had like him?

 

Way before my time but I would guess not since Ron Barassi in the 60's.

[Biffen 12,298]

kids got heart.

[WERRIDEE 5,198]

Petracca is a gun the best player in the comp ATM. Clarry has been ok he still has a lot of improvement in him starting off with his kicking.

[Dr.D 1,771]

3 hours ago, binman said:

Good question.

I meant now actually and personally, like you id take tracc - though by some margin.

At 18? Not so sure. The percentage call would be Oliver. And perhaps i should cool my jets a bit with tracc given i've still got the post Hawks game glow on.

It would depend a bit of course of what the needs of my hypothetical list was but i'd like to think i'd still pick Tracc because of his unique combination of power, size and skills. 

And a unique combination of power, size and skills is exactly why i loved the selection of Jackson.

He was not the percentage pick. The percentage pick would have been an outside mid or winger with elite foot skills as that is what we sorely lack (and the sort of i think we should target next draft by the by) not ruck given we have gawn and recruited Preuss as back up.  

But Jackson has got what few do. In addition to his rare physical attributes he, like Tracc, has the X factor gene. 

There were some curious things about Tracc's draft.

One was Brayshaw and Trac  are good  examples of a gun mid and a player with x factor.  The discussion pre draft was that Tracc was a very good chance at going at number 1 and i don't recall gus being in that conversation. In the end it didn't matter because we had picks 2 and 3, and perhaps i'm reading too much into it but it was instructive i think they chose trac at 2 and Brayshaw at 3.

The other thing curious thing (and ultimately sad) thing that the Saints ended up taking McMartin because really good big forwards are rare as hens teeth in the draft, they needed one and even though he had unique attributes tracc would never be key forward.

The only winners were us really. 

(McMartin - such terrible luck. I really hope he can play again, if he wants to) 

 

Isn't it fair to assume that Petracca needs to win multiple best and fairests and an all-australian guernsey before he can be matched with Oliver. A part of being a stat is to produce over a sustained period. Petracca hasn't done that. 

Jackson was rated very very high. Most other teams would've picked him over Hayden Young imo. The question mark over Jackson is he is undersized for a ruck. 

Edited July 22, 2020 by Dr.D

[binman 37,746]

1 hour ago, Pickett2Jackson said:

Way before my time but I would guess not since Ron Barassi in the 60's.

I thought the same actually. Nearly 60 years ago.

[binman 37,746]

1 hour ago, Dr.D said:

 

Isn't it fair to assume that Petracca needs to win multiple best and fairests and an all-australian guernsey before he can be matched with Oliver. A part of being a stat is to produce over a sustained period. Petracca hasn't done that. 

Jackson was rated very very high. Most other teams would've picked him over Hayden Young imo. The question mark over Jackson is he is undersized for a ruck. 

I'm not sure fair comes into the equation.

If the question is who is the better player, the answer depends on your metrics.

For me tracc is a better at this point of time because he is more damaging and has more impact.

But impact is my chosen metric. Others will have different metrics and therefore a different answer.

But dont get me wrong Oliver is a star.And unlike say a Ollie wines has not hit his ceiling. Loved how he played on Sunday. Had reak impact because he was getting the ball forward and kicking more.

Id love to see him kick some goals. That would add anorher element to his game.

 

[Pickett2Jackson 3,904]

9 minutes ago, binman said:

 

Id love to see him kick some goals. That would add anorher element to his game.

 

He should be doing this... too good not too.  Clearly remember him kicking some bags at junior level.

 

[binman 37,746]

5 minutes ago, Pickett2Jackson said:

He should be doing this... too good not too.  Clearly remember him kicking some bags at junior level.

 

Kicked 12 in 2018. Four last year. None so far this year.

[deanox 8,509]

14 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

...

Into the future:

Oliver runs the risk of becoming an 'accumulator' that doesn't really hurt the opposition and isn't getting the best value from his hard work in getting the ball.  He has some weaknesses to work on.

...

While I understand where you are coming from I think this is a bit harsh and he has a long way to fall before realising this risk. 

Oliver is super damaging in a less overt way. His extraction and creative, fast hands, means that he sets up a lot of past that wouldn't have happened otherwise.  While Trac bursts through and kicks long,  Oliver did under and squeezes out to advantage. To become "just an accumulator" I think he need to lose that ability and be more loose, uneventful outside touches.

He is still one of the best and most creative extractors in the game, and is probably playing more well rounded footy than in the years he won the bnfs.

He is averaging 25 disposals this year (4th in the comp), equal to 31.25 in full length quarters (he has a higher kick to handball ratio than Petracca this year too) and 5th in ave contested possessions. He is 7th in ave clearances (3rd in centre clearances) and 25th for tackles (only half a tackle off being 15th). His turnovers are up by one per game (2 when factoring in shortened game time) which is sight concern but it is also a symptom of kicking more, which we've asked of him. 

On those numbers he should right in the frame for AA discussion. Unfortunately he gets marked very hard by umpires and media for some reason (vs their favourites).

 

[binman 37,746]

All really good points deanox.

Those stats for this season are impressive. Love that he is kicking more

As you say he is an elite extractor, a skill that perhaps can be underrated and is certainly less flashy and obvious than say brilliant kicking.

I've noticed too that this year he often goes to the opposition's best mid at stoppages, as he did with Cripps. Doesn't mind getting into them either.

In 2018 I backed him to win the brownlow (after the home and away season ) as his numbers were crazy good. Couldn't believe how few votes he got (or conversely how many Gus got).

I concluded he doesn't get votes because umpires miss his key skill - that ability to extract and they don't like that he is lippy and likes to scrap. It is a joke award

Edited July 23, 2020 by binman

[deanox 8,509]

2 minutes ago, binman said:

All really good points deanox.

Those stats for this season are impressive. Love that he is kicking more

As you say he is an elite extractor, a skill that perhaps can be underrated and is certainly less flashy and obvious than say brilliant kicking.

I've noticed too that thus year often goes to the opposition's best mid at stoppages, as he did with cripps. Doesn't mind getting into them either.

In 2018 I backed him to win the brownlow (After the season) as his numbers were crazy good. Couldn't believe how few votes he got (or conversely how many his got).

I concluded He doesn't get votes because umpires miss his key skill - that ability to extract and they dont like that he is lippy and likes to scrap. It is a joke award

I think we see this in the lack of free kicks he gets despite being scragged and held constantly, and how fast they are to pay very soft frees against him for illegal contact or holding. When they talk about protecting the ball players, he is exactly the type that should be protected, because talk away the holding and he would single handedly open the game up.