Stats Files - 2020

[Demon Dynasty 15,208]

Rnd 12, 2020 Gabba - Demons vs Pies

Weighted Scores - Magpies

Player	Score	Rank
Brodie Grundy	3.900	1
Taylor Adams	3.725	2
Steele Sidebottom	3.500	3
Scott Pendlebury	3.075	4
Tom Phillips	2.925	5
Travis Varcoe	2.750	6
Darcy Moore	2.700	7
John Noble	2.575	8
Josh Daicos	2.300	9
Josh Thomas	1.950	10
Jack Crisp	1.925	11
Jack Madgen	1.900	12
Rupert Wills	1.550	13
Brayden Maynard	1.450	14
Jamie Elliott	1.400	15
Will H-Elliott	0.900	16
Callum Brown	0.900	17
Ben Reid	0.750	18
Darcy Cameron	0.675	19
Lynden Dunn	0.500	20
Trey Ruscoe	0.400	21
Brody Mihocek	0.000	22
Team Score	41.750
Top 6	19.875
Bottom 6	3.225

# Hit outs to advantage not captured

Stats courtesy of footywire.com

[Demon Dynasty 15,208]

Weighted Averages up to and including Rnd 12, 2020

Have included an extra column to show the adjusted performance from this year vs 2019 allowing for the 20% time reduction this season.

Player	2020 Weighted Score	2020 Rank	2019 Weighted Score	% Change vs 2019	% Change vs 2019 w/ 20% time reduction	2019 Rank	Change in Rank vs 2019
Clayton Oliver	3.986	1	4.643	-14.15	7.31	1	0
Christian Petracca	3.691	2	2.616	41.09	76.37	10	8
Max Gawn #	3.039	3	3.256	-6.66	16.67	4	1
Jack Viney	2.825	4	3.068	-7.92	15.10	5	1
Christian Salem	2.648	5	3.448	-23.20	-4.00	3	-2
Ed Langdon	2.605	6	-	-	-	-	-
Steven May	2.498	7	2.446	2.13	27.66	14	7
Angus Brayshaw	2.414	8	2.894	-16.59	4.27	6	-2
Tom Sparrow	2.338	9	1.075	117.49	171.86	37	28
Michael Hibberd	2.218	10	2.124	4.43	30.53	20	10
Braydon Preuss # *	2.150	11	1.521	41.35	76.69	33	22
Jake Lever	2.075	12	2.313	-10.29	12.14	17	5
James Harmes	2.052	13	3.850	-46.70	-33.38	2	-11
Nathan Jones	1.871	14	2.711	-30.98	-13.73	8	-6
Oscar McDonald	1.825	15	1.877	-2.77	21.54	26	11
Harley Bennell	1.790	16	-	-	-	-	-
Alex N-Bullen	1.683	17	1.984	-15.17	6.04	21	4
Tom McDonald #	1.654	18	2.150	-23.07	-3.84	19	1
Jay Lockhart	1.636	19	1.660	-1.45	23.19	31	12
Mitchell Hannan	1.625	20	1.325	22.64	53.30	36	16
Sam Weideman	1.614	21	1.818	-11.22	10.97	27	6
Bayley Fritsch	1.600	22	2.641	-39.42	-24.27	9	-13
Adam Tomlinson #	1.582	23	-	-	-	-	-
Trent Rivers	1.388	24	-	-	-	-	-
Luke Jackson #	1.354	25	-	-	-	-	-
Aaron Vandenburg	1.350	26	-	-	-	-	-
Neville Jetta	1.305	27	2.264	-42.36	-27.95	18	-9
Charlie Spargo	1.242	28	1.375	-9.67	12.91	35	7
Jake Melksham	1.182	29	1.931	-38.79	-23.49	23	-6
Joel Smith	1.158	30	-	-	-	-	-
Toby Bedford *	1.150	31	-	-	-	-	-
Kysaiah Pickett	1.142	32	-	-	-	-	-
Jayden Hunt	0.858	33	1.958	-56.18	-45.22	22	-11
Mitchell Brown *	0.625	34	-	-	-	-	-
Average Team Score -Top 22	49.837		59.623	-16.41	4.48

# Hit outs to advantage not captured

* One match only, not an average

Stats courtesy of footywire.com

Edited August 16, 2020 by Rusty Nails

[Demon Dynasty 15,208]

Road to Finals / GF - Triple Crown Update (to Rnd 12, 2020)

Vs the Pies

• Meters Gained Differential (looking for + 200 or more) ? +628 ✔️
• Marks inside 50 Differential (any positive is a win but the higher the better) ? +5 ✔️
• Contested Possession Differential (looking for a +10 or greater) ? -2 ❌

Season Averages (the ones that count)

Get ready, get set, we are finals bound fellow minions!  

• Meters Gained Average Differential (looking for an average of + 200 or more) ? +204 ✔️

Up from +162 last week and into +200 territory for the first time this season!  Retaining No.4 spot.  Cats replacing the Power at No.1 The Lions dropping out of 5th place moving to 7th, replaced by the Doggies.  The top five with current ladder positions in parenthesis below.

           Top five ? 1.  Cats 345 (3rd)  2. Port 317 (1st)  3. Tigers 298 (6th)  4. Demons 204 (8th)  5. Bulldogs 131 (10th)

• Marks inside 50 Average Differential (ideally we need to see a top 6 ranking) ? 3rd ✔️

Holding at 3rd with a slight improvement from last week's +2.2 average to 2.5

           Top five ? 1. Cats  2. Lions  3. Demons  4. Power  4. Tigers

• Contested Possession Average Differential (looking for +10 or more) ?  +7.7 ❌

This one isn't quite as strong as the first two in terms or correlation and somewhat of a bonus but we remain in the top 3 which is still a very good indicator we are on track on this measure.  Dropping one place to 3rd and still below the required pass rate but worth noting that no team has hit the required pass mark on this yet.  Down from +8.7 last week to +7.7 

            Top five:   1. Cats  2. Pies  3. Demons  4. Power  4. Kangas

[old55 21,216]

Cats are looking good on the field and in the stats.  They were still a hard-to-believe $11 for the flag after smashing the Saints, they've come in from that after bashing PA.  I'd like to get them in a final though, I think we scare them.

[Demon Dynasty 15,208]

Rnd 13, 2020 Metricon - Dogs vs Demons

Team score, allowing for this season's 20% less game time, was 8% off the 2019 season average and 18% lower than 2018's.

Clarry tops the statistical tables again with May not far behind.  Fritta down the other end for the first time this season punished somewhat by his turnovers exceeding effective possessions.  AVB not far behind and has been sitting at or near the bottom since his return against the Crows.  His best result 19th against the Roos in Rnd 11.

Turnover kings today were Viney with a whopping 9 followed by Tracc with 7.  On the up side Viney lead the score involvements with 6, closely followed by Melk, Clarry, Pruess and the Weid with 5 a piece.  As a side note Tomlinson had 14 effectives today at 100% efficiency with zero turnovers.  Not too shabby.  Lever topped the intercepts with 12, Harmes the next best with 7.

Player	Score	Rank
Clayton Oliver	3.750	1
Steven May	3.425	2
Angus Brayshaw	3.200	3
Jake Lever	3.150	4
Adam Tomlinson	3.125	5
Christian Salem	3.050	6
Ed Langdon	2.725	7
Christian Petracca	2.250	8
James Harmes	2.225	9
Jack Viney	2.125	10
Michael Hibberd	1.725	11
Jake Melksham	1.600	12
Braydon Preuss #	1.450	13
Charlie Spargo	1.375	14
Sam Weideman	1.300	15
Kysaiah Pickett	1.250	16
Tom Sparrow	1.150	17
Mitchell Hannan	1.000	18
Tom McDonald #	0.975	19
Jay Lockhart	0.925	20
Aaron Vandenberg	0.600	21
Bayley Fritsch	0.525	22
Team Score	42.900
Top 6	19.700
Bottom 6	5.175

# Hit outs to advantage not captured

Stats courtesy of footywire.com

Edited August 22, 2020 by Rusty Nails

[buck_nekkid 5,459]

10 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

Rnd 13, 2020 Metricon - Dogs vs Demons

Team score, allowing for this season's 20% less game time, was 8% off the 2019 season average and 18% lower than 2018's.

Clarry tops the statistical tables again with May not far behind.  Fritta down the other end for the first time this season punished somewhat by his turnovers exceeding effective possessions.  AVB not far behind and has been sitting at or near the bottom since his return against the Crows.  His best result 19th against the Roos in Rnd 11.

Turnover kings today were Viney with a whopping 9 followed by Tracc with 7.  On the up side Viney lead the score involvements with 6, closely followed by Melk, Clarry, Pruess and the Weid with 5 a piece.  As a side note Tomlinson had 14 effectives today at 100% efficiency with zero turnovers.  Not too shabby.  Lever topped the intercepts with 12, Harmes the next best with 7.

Player	Score	Rank
Clayton Oliver	3.750	1
Steven May	3.425	2
Angus Brayshaw	3.200	3
Jake Lever	3.150	4
Adam Tomlinson	3.125	5
Christian Salem	3.050	6
Ed Langdon	2.725	7
Christian Petracca	2.250	8
James Harmes	2.225	9
Jack Viney	2.125	10
Michael Hibberd	1.725	11
Jake Melksham	1.600	12
Braydon Preuss #	1.450	13
Charlie Spargo	1.375	14
Sam Weideman	1.300	15
Kysaiah Pickett	1.250	16
Tom Sparrow	1.150	17
Mitchell Hannan	1.000	18
Tom McDonald #	0.975	19
Jay Lockhart	0.925	20
Aaron Vandenberg	0.600	21
Bayley Fritsch	0.525	22
Team Score	42.900
Top 6	19.700
Bottom 6	5.175

# Hit outs to advantage not captured

Stats courtesy of footywire.com

Thanks, Rusty.  You know the sort of day it was when May, Lever and Tommo all are near the top of the pops. 

[Demon Dynasty 15,208]

5 hours ago, buck_nekkid said:

Thanks, Rusty.  You know the sort of day it was when May, Lever and Tommo all are near the top of the pops. 

No Worries BN.  Just can't seem to take that step up to the next level above the shoulders eh.  They have some talent and decent players but far too often just fail to show up on match day once the opposition up the ante a little.  Some of those kicks yesterday, into the man on the mark multiple occasions and kicking scrubbers to the opp on others.  Fritta's inexplicable non-tackle on English costing us a goal.  Fritta playing on and kicking it to "someone" who just wasn't even an option or may have even been running away from him towards goal with back turned (i think), ball turned over and ends up in their forward line (can't recall if they scored or not).  Gus did something similar at one point.  No poise when needed, too many brain farts.  Amature hour stuff.

Smacks of a team that just isn't hungry enough right across the board and/or just can't handle AFL level pressure (with a few notable exceptions in general and on the day).  Too little left to too few far too often to take the next step also.  We are capable against the sub par clubs / teams but don't cut it so well against anyone from about 10th place upwards.

Really feel for blokes like Maxy, Clarry and Tracc.  Even May and Hibb this season, who give it their all most weeks but are continually let down by blokes who just can't seem to go (or maybe couldn't be bothered going) to the next level.  Then there's the coach & FD.  I'm sure they're getting alot right but i'm just not sure they're capable of getting the best out of this group.

After 3.5 seasons we keep getting beaten by teams who are fairly fast in general (but that's what AFL brings now and has for decades!) using a game style that sees them spread with skills / leg speed away from congestion and just hungrier for longer far too easily far too often.

And when are we going to learn that when we're on a good thing you stick with it!?? ie., Viney plays less time in the middle, more time forward bringing Gus into more mid field time?  Worked beautifully the week before.  But no, let's go back to Viney this week and stuff the whole balance / system up...and this is not the first time!  How many times have we thought we are on to a good set up / balance since SG started only to see it thrown out again a few weeks later....back to our awful type once again.

Then there's AVB & Sparrow on a wing.  Now i love ANB and certainly not expecting much from Sparrow given he's a rookie but come on.  We have to be better than this in a place on the park where you need mobile marking options with run and carry ability.

Not throwing the baby out just yet but it's very very close and i reckon this week is this group's final chance (under SG) to turn a corner and make a fist of it coming into finals in a strong way.  Lose this one and the spotlight's really gonna be on the Coach and FD as well as a bunch of players that just aren't able to cut the mustard.

Edited August 23, 2020 by Rusty Nails

[Fanatique Demon 2,364]

Thanks again, Rusty.

Interesting to see Weideman rated similarly to Spargo and Pickett. I thought he was far better than they were.

[buck_nekkid 5,459]

11 hours ago, Fanatique Demon said:

Thanks again, Rusty.

Interesting to see Weideman rated similarly to Spargo and Pickett. I thought he was far better than they were.

I saw that with interest, too.  I think it’s a case of different players needing different ratings, May was sensational, but midfielders who were average still beat him statistically.  Weids led and marked well, and kicked 2 goals.  Would say he did more than enough to be in the good books.  Spargo struggled to get involved, and Pickett had another ‘nearly’ game in q1, gave away silly frees, then tackled hard in the last.

statistics inform, but you only ever learn what you set out to measure.

[Demon Dynasty 15,208]

12 hours ago, Fanatique Demon said:

Thanks again, Rusty.

Interesting to see Weideman rated similarly to Spargo and Pickett. I thought he was far better than they were.

 

1 hour ago, buck_nekkid said:

I saw that with interest, too.  I think it’s a case of different players needing different ratings, May was sensational, but midfielders who were average still beat him statistically.  Weids led and marked well, and kicked 2 goals.  Would say he did more than enough to be in the good books.  Spargo struggled to get involved, and Pickett had another ‘nearly’ game in q1, gave away silly frees, then tackled hard in the last.

statistics inform, but you only ever learn what you set out to measure.

Agreed re Sam having a somewhat better match vs the other two when watching the game.  The weighted score does capture this (just) with Kozzie but not with Spargo (just).  As pointed out by BN, statistically things can come out slightly differently vs what actually occurs on match day in terms of the importance of a player's disposal / involvement / output and effect on the result.  Often it can be little things that don't even get picked up ie., some stats are either dubious or the publicly available ones don't / can't capture all of the nuances that we see take place.

Nonetheless, i have to agree with these two assessments and it could (probably was) the weakness of the model itself.

Taking a look at the penalty imposed for turnovers that goes in to the final weighted scores.  I've backed it off, marginally, and this may be the tonic needed without changing the core basis of the model nor the rest of the pecking order in a significant way.

Hey nobody's perfect and there's always room for improvement so thanks for the constructive scrutiny fellas.

The new weighted ratings table, including the above minor tweak, below. 

Player	Score	Rank
Clayton Oliver	3.800	1
Steven May	3.525	2
Angus Brayshaw	3.400	3
Jake Lever	3.250	4
Christian Salem	3.200	5
Adam Tomlinson	3.125	6
Ed Langdon	2.875	7
Christian Petracca	2.600	8
Jack Viney	2.575	9
James Harmes	2.325	10
Michael Hibberd	2.025	11
Jake Melksham	1.650	12
Braydon Preuss #	1.550	13
Sam Weideman	1.500	14
Charlie Spargo	1.375	15
Kysaiah Pickett	1.300	16
Tom McDonald #	1.175	17
Tom Sparrow	1.150	18
Mitchell Hannan	1.100	19
Jay Lockhart	1.075	20
Aaron Vandenberg	0.850	21
Bayley Fritsch	0.775	22
Team Score	46.200
Top 6	20.300
Bottom 6	6.125

# Hit outs to advantage not captured

Stats courtesy of footywire.com

 

Edited August 24, 2020 by Rusty Nails

[buck_nekkid 5,459]

36 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

 

Agreed re Sam having a somewhat better match vs the other two when watching the game.  The weighted score does capture this (just) with Kozzie but not with Spargo (just).  As pointed out by BN, statistically things can come out slightly differently vs what actually occurs on match day in terms of the importance of a player's disposal / involvement / output and effect on the result.  Often it can be little things that don't even get picked up ie., some stats are either dubious or the publicly available ones don't / can't capture all of the nuances that we see take place.

Nonetheless, i have to agree with these two assessments and it could (probably was) the weakness of the model itself.

Taking a look at the penalty imposed for turnovers that goes in to the final weighted scores.  I've backed it off, marginally, and this may be the tonic needed without changing the core basis of the model nor the rest of the pecking order in a significant way.

Hey nobody's perfect and there's always room for improvement so thanks for the constructive scrutiny fellas.

The new weighted ratings table, including the above minor tweak, below. 

Player	Score	Rank
Clayton Oliver	3.800	1
Steven May	3.525	2
Angus Brayshaw	3.400	3
Jake Lever	3.250	4
Christian Salem	3.200	5
Adam Tomlinson	3.125	6
Ed Langdon	2.875	7
Christian Petracca	2.600	8
Jack Viney	2.575	9
James Harmes	2.325	10
Michael Hibberd	2.025	11
Jake Melksham	1.650	12
Braydon Preuss #	1.550	13
Sam Weideman	1.500	14
Charlie Spargo	1.375	15
Kysaiah Pickett	1.300	16
Tom McDonald #	1.175	17
Tom Sparrow	1.150	18
Mitchell Hannan	1.100	19
Jay Lockhart	1.075	20
Aaron Vandenberg	0.850	21
Bayley Fritsch	0.775	22
Team Score	46.200
Top 6	20.300
Bottom 6	6.125

# Hit outs to advantage not captured

Stats courtesy of footywire.com

 

Absolutely not have it a dig at you Rusty.  I am so appreciative of what you do each week.  Highly valued.  Just calling out that any model measures what it measures.  It also doesnt take into account individual bias, television coverage or the BT drivel factor.  But I think your approach gives a grounded way to review performances and when the model is consistent, we can see changes between performances and discuss what we have seen. Cheers

[Demon Dynasty 15,208]

34 minutes ago, buck_nekkid said:

Absolutely not have it a dig at you Rusty.  I am so appreciative of what you do each week.  Highly valued.  Just calling out that any model measures what it measures.  It also doesnt take into account individual bias, television coverage or the BT drivel factor.  But I think your approach gives a grounded way to review performances and when the model is consistent, we can see changes between performances and discuss what we have seen. Cheers

Certainly didn't take it as that Buck.  Your feedback / input always valued.  No harm in posing the questions and having a healthy debate / discussion.  I'm also always looking to fine tune regardless, at least where/when i can see a pattern of anomaly arising and i think it was warranted here.

[Fanatique Demon 2,364]

Likewise, Rusty.  Love this stuff.

[layzie 28,518]

Random question but is there anywhere that has the biggest range of stats with every stat possible? 

I was trying to find our what our record was with scoring from forward 50 stoppages and can't find it anywhere.  

[Demon Dynasty 15,208]

On 8/24/2020 at 11:51 PM, layzie said:

Random question but is there anywhere that has the biggest range of stats with every stat possible? 

I was trying to find our what our record was with scoring from forward 50 stoppages and can't find it anywhere.  

There is Layzie but it's under Champion Data's copyright so no chance we will ever get stats that drill down to that level.  There's a little in the Hun on a Monday such as pressure acts and hit outs to advantage but otherwise nothing publicly available.

[Demon Dynasty 15,208]

Weighted Average Scores - Rnd 11 through Rnd 13, 2020

 

 

There are arguably better Zep songs out there than this.....but none more appropriate for our boy Clarry.  Rain, hail or shine, hat's off,  this bloke keeps delivering the goods.  Ok he's had his dinky handball phase and a few other question marks over his short journey so far.  But let's face it, we'd be struggling somewhat in the mid without this bloke's consistency and manic attack on the ball.  He's now adding another component to his game on the burst and getting to the outside seemingly with more damaging kicks happening.  Let's hope he continues on his merry way and he gets plenty of support from his mates coming in to finals.

Gus, Ed and Jake the snake all pushing up as well in this last block of three matches.  Yes only one match to go on but not a bad output from the two rookies Trent & LJ at this early stage.  Let's hope LJ can make it back firing in time for finals.

The team score in this block is off the charts compared to the previous block.  Yes there were two easy pickings among these numbers but you don't average 17% higher vs the previous season and approx 25% vs the previous block of three matches (from Rnds 8 to 10) without getting some major lift in form from a significant number of players.  We are also tracking the average 2018 team score in this block.

While there's no certainty in life and certainly none in footy i would say we are a very good chance, maybe 70% or so, of making finals here.  Being the 2nd highest scoring team behind the Cats in the second half of matches this season should help if we can get back on the winner's list this week.  Defence looking very solid also.  Big game coming up after the disappointment against the Dogs.

Player	Rnds 11 to 13 Weighted Score	Rank	2019 Weighted Score	% Change vs 2019	% Change vs 2019 w/ 20% time adjusted	2019 Rank	Change in Rank vs 2019
Clayton Oliver (3)	4.875	1	4.880	-0.10	24.87	1	0
Angus Brayshaw  (3)	4.033	2	3.131	28.81	61.01	6	4
Ed Langdon (3)	3.592	3	-	-	-	-	-
Christian Petracca (3)	3.492	4	2.843	22.83	53.53	9	5
Christian Salem (3)	3.450	5	3.658	-5.69	17.89	3	-2
Jake Lever (3)	2.775	6	2.519	10.16	37.70	16	10
Steven May (3)	2.758	7	2.618	5.35	31.68	14	7
Michael Hibberd (3)	2.583	8	2.339	10.43	38.04	19	11
Trent Rivers (1) *	2.550	9	-	-	-	-	-
Jack Viney (2)	2.275	10	3.258	-30.17	-12.71	5	-5
Luke Jackson (1) * #	2.275	10	-	-	-	-	-
Adam Tomlinson (3) #	2.250	12	-	-	-	-	-
Tom Sparrow (2.3)	2.192	13	1.275	71.92	114.90	37	24
James Harmes (3)	2.183	14	4.039	-45.95	-32.44	2	-12
Nathan Jones (2)	2.163	15	2.907	-25.59	-6.99	7	-8
Tom McDonald (3) #	1.917	16	2.297	-16.54	4.32	20	4
Sam Weideman (3)	1.917	16	1.895	1.16	26.45	27	11
Braydon Preuss (2) #	1.875	18	1.643	14.12	42.65	33	15
Charlie Spargo (3)	1.867	19	1.513	23.40	54.25	35	16
Jake Melksham (3)	1.650	20	2.181	-24.35	-5.43	21	1
Mitchell Hannan (2)	1.588	21	1.433	10.82	38.52	36	15
Bayley Fritsch (3)	1.550	22	2.809	-44.82	-31.03	10	-12
Kysaiah Pickett (3)	1.467	23	-	-	-	-	-
Jay Lockhart (2)	1.325	24	1.819	-27.16	-8.95	30	6
Aaron Vandenburg (3)	1.108	25	-	-	-	-	-
Average Team Score -Top 22	55.810		59.623	-6.40	17.01

# Hit outs to advantage not captured

* Only one match played ie., not an average score

Numbers in parentheses = number of games played for this data set

Stats courtesy of footywire.com

Edited August 27, 2020 by Rusty Nails

[Kent 2,574]

9 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

Weighted Average Scores - Rnd 11 through Rnd 13, 2020

 

 

There are arguably better Zep songs out there than this.....but none more appropriate for our boy Clarry.  Rain, hail or shine, hat's off,  this bloke keeps delivering the goods.  Ok he's had his dinky handball phase and a few other question marks over his short journey so far.  But let's face it, we'd be struggling somewhat in the mid without this bloke's consistency and manic attack on the ball.  He's now adding another component to his game on the burst and getting to the outside seemingly with more damaging kicks happening.  Let's hope he continues on his merry way and he gets plenty of support from his mates coming in to finals.

Gus, Ed and Jake the snake all pushing up as well in this last block of three matches.  Yes only one match to go on but not a bad output from the two rookies Trent & LJ at this early stage.  Let's hope LJ can make it back firing in time for finals.

The team score in this block is off the charts compared to the previous block.  Yes there were two easy pickings among these numbers but you don't average 17% higher vs the previous season and approx 25% vs the previous block of three matches (from Rnds 8 to 10) without getting some major lift in form from a significant number of players.  We are also tracking the average 2018 team score in this block.

While there's no certainty in life and certainly none in footy i would say we are a very good chance, maybe 70% or so, of making finals here.  Being the 2nd highest scoring team behind the Cats in the second half of matches this season should help if we can get back on the winner's list this week.  Defence looking very solid also.  Big game coming up after the disappointment against the Dogs.

Player	Rnds 11 to 13 Weighted Score	Rank	2019 Weighted Score	% Change vs 2019	% Change vs 2019 w/ 20% time adjusted	2019 Rank	Change in Rank vs 2019
Clayton Oliver (3)	4.875	1	4.880	-0.10	24.87	1	0
Angus Brayshaw  (3)	4.033	2	3.131	28.81	61.01	6	4
Ed Langdon (3)	3.592	3	-	-	-	-	-
Christian Petracca (3)	3.492	4	2.843	22.83	53.53	9	5
Christian Salem (3)	3.450	5	3.658	-5.69	17.89	3	-2
Jake Lever (3)	2.775	6	2.519	10.16	37.70	16	10
Steven May (3)	2.758	7	2.618	5.35	31.68	14	7
Michael Hibberd (3)	2.583	8	2.339	10.43	38.04	19	11
Trent Rivers (1) *	2.550	9	-	-	-	-	-
Jack Viney (2)	2.275	10	3.258	-30.17	-12.71	5	-5
Luke Jackson (1) * #	2.275	10	-	-	-	-	-
Adam Tomlinson (3) #	2.250	12	-	-	-	-	-
Tom Sparrow (2.3)	2.192	13	1.275	71.92	114.90	37	24
James Harmes (3)	2.183	14	4.039	-45.95	-32.44	2	-12
Nathan Jones (2)	2.163	15	2.907	-25.59	-6.99	7	-8
Tom McDonald (3) #	1.917	16	2.297	-16.54	4.32	20	4
Sam Weideman (3)	1.917	16	1.895	1.16	26.45	27	11
Braydon Preuss (2) #	1.875	18	1.643	14.12	42.65	33	15
Charlie Spargo (3)	1.867	19	1.513	23.40	54.25	35	16
Jake Melksham (3)	1.650	20	2.181	-24.35	-5.43	21	1
Mitchell Hannan (2)	1.588	21	1.433	10.82	38.52	36	15
Bayley Fritsch (3)	1.550	22	2.809	-44.82	-31.03	10	-12
Kysaiah Pickett (3)	1.467	23	-	-	-	-	-
Jay Lockhart (2)	1.325	24	1.819	-27.16	-8.95	30	6
Aaron Vandenburg (3)	1.108	25	-	-	-	-	-
Average Team Score -Top 22	55.810		59.623	-6.40	17.01

# Hit outs to advantage not captured

* Only one match played ie., not an average score

Numbers in parentheses = number of games played for this data set

Stats courtesy of footywire.com

on that you would think that Harmes Jones and Fritta are well below expectation and should be dropped

[Demon Dynasty 15,208]

1 hour ago, Kent said:

on that you would think that Harmes Jones and Fritta are well below expectation and should be dropped

Harmes must be borderline but imv i just think he is being asked to play a role he just doesn't get this late in his career.  He's been a run with / part time mid / winger who pushes forward to stretch his opponent and mark/ maybe kick the odd goal in the past.  I would reset him this weekend on a shut down (not necessarily heavy lockdown) role on Steele who is presently the Saints most prolific ball winner.

This makes complete sense now with Sparrow out imo.  Rivers comes in to cover Harmes.

The only option i can really see if Fritta is dropped is Bedford and i'm just not sure he will be ready for such a big match.  If you are bringing him in for Fritta then i can't see him playing out Fritta's role in the air.  On the ground sure.  And he probably won't play the entire match out. It's possible but you will need others to drift forward and help out in the air like AVB, Harmes, Tracc and Clarry.  As well as on the ground once his tank peaters out probably about 2/3rds of the way through.  Maybe let Hannan & AVB share this role early.  Once AVB's legs are gone chasing....then bring Bedford in to cover the Saints defensive smalls in the second half with Hannan along with our other two smalls, Kozzy & Spargo.

Could even consider dropping AVB for chunk to play that same role in the first half as he appears to be in better form than AVB at the moment (subject to a fitness test of course).

Edited August 27, 2020 by Rusty Nails

[layzie 28,518]

3 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

There is Layzie but it's under Champion Data's copyright so no chance we will ever get stats that drill down to that level.  There's a little in the Hun on a Monday such as pressure acts and hit outs to advantage but otherwise nothing publicly available.

That might have to do for now, cheers Rusty!

[spirit of norm smith 12,839]

Footy is about scoring. We seem to have a spread which is good but I’d love to have a key forward who kicks those vital goals in tough close matches. 
 

This year we have (after 12 games) 

Fritsch 17 goals

Weideman 16 goals 

Melksham 15 goals 

Only players in double figures. 
 

I know it’s a lean year but have to get more mids kicking goals or contributions from Pickett, Vandenburg, Bennell, Hannan etc. and Tom McSpud

[dpositive 1,547]

On 8/9/2020 at 4:18 PM, Rusty Nails said:

G'day Nascent.  This didn't come up on my reply feed for some reason so apologies for the delay.

I have explained this once before already but it was some time back and i can't find the response.  Anyway, i've inserted the answers to your questions above ?  Hope this helps make a bit more sense of things.

I have said previously that it's a fantastic source and find your comments well considered.

I am reminded of the old "data is not information, information is not knowledge, knowledge is not wisdom, continuum" which confuses many arguments.

[Demon Dynasty 15,208]

3 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Footy is about scoring. We seem to have a spread which is good but I’d love to have a key forward who kicks those vital goals in tough close matches. 
 

This year we have (after 12 games) 

Fritsch 17 goals

Weideman 16 goals 

Melksham 15 goals 

Only players in double figures. 
 

I know it’s a lean year but have to get more mids kicking goals or contributions from Pickett, Vandenburg, Bennell, Hannan etc. and Tom McSpud

If only we could find that magic bean SNS.  I'm still not sure it lies within the present list.

[Demon Dynasty 15,208]

1 hour ago, dpositive said:

I have said previously that it's a fantastic source and find your comments well considered.

I am reminded of the old "data is not information, information is not knowledge, knowledge is not wisdom, continuum" which confuses many arguments.

Haven't heard that one Dp.  I've heard a few such as "rubbish in rubbish out" or "Some individuals use statistics as a drunk man uses lamp-posts — for support rather than for illumination".  Sometimes i'm a bit of a boozer!

[Demon Dynasty 15,208]

Weighted Averages up to and including Rnd 13, 2020

Player	2020 Weighted Score	2020 Rank	2019 Weighted Score	% Change vs 2019	% Change vs 2019 w/ 20% time adjusted	2019 Rank	Change in Rank vs 2019
Clayton Oliver	4.200	1	4.880	-13.93	7.58	1	0
Christian Petracca	3.821	2	2.843	34.40	68.00	9	7
Max Gawn #	3.194	3	3.437	-7.07	16.16	4	1
Jack Viney	3.030	4	3.258	-7.00	16.25	5	1
Christian Salem	2.852	5	3.658	-22.03	-2.54	3	-2
Ed Langdon	2.781	6	-	-	-	-	-
Steven May	2.721	7	2.618	3.93	29.92	14	7
Angus Brayshaw	2.642	8	3.131	-15.62	5.48	6	-2
Michael Hibberd	2.341	9	2.339	0.09	25.11	19	10
Jake Lever	2.269	10	2.519	-9.92	12.59	16	6
James Harmes	2.208	11	4.039	-45.33	-31.67	2	-9
Tom Sparrow	2.150	12	1.275	68.63	110.78	37	25
Nathan Jones	1.979	13	2.907	-31.92	-14.90	7	-6
Oscar McDonald	1.925	14	1.956	-1.58	23.02	26	12
Adam Tomlinson #	1.894	15	-	-	-	-	-
Braydon Preuss #	1.875	16	1.643	14.12	42.65	33	17
Harley Bennell	1.850	17	-	-	-	-	-
Alex N-Bullen	1.783	18	2.120	-15.90	5.13	22	4
Tom McDonald #	1.675	19	2.297	-27.08	-8.85	20	1
Sam Weideman	1.675	19	1.895	-11.61	10.49	27	8
Jay Lockhart	1.650	21	1.819	-9.29	13.39	30	9
Bayley Fritsch	1.640	22	2.809	-41.62	-27.02	10	-12
Mitchell Hannan	1.634	23	1.433	14.03	42.53	36	13
Trent Rivers	1.575	24	-	-	-	-	-
Luke Jackson #	1.463	25	-	-	-	-	-
Aaron Vandenburg	1.438	26	-	-	-	-	-
Charlie Spargo	1.388	27	1.513	-8.26	14.67	35	8
Jake Melksham	1.371	28	2.181	-37.14	-21.42	21	-7
Neville Jetta	1.355	29	2.264	-40.15	-25.19	18	-11
Joel Smith	1.292	30	-	-	-	-	-
Kysaiah Pickett	1.283	31	-	-	-	-	-
Toby Bedford *	1.250	32	-	-	-	-	-
Jayden Hunt	0.908	33	2.092	-56.60	-45.75	23	-10
Mitchell Brown *	0.775	34	-	-	-	-	-
Average Team Score -Top 22	52.155		59.623	-12.53	9.34

# Hit outs to advantage not captured

* One match only, not an average

Stats courtesy of footywire.com

[Demon Dynasty 15,208]

Road to Finals / GF - Triple Crown Update (to Rnd 13, 2020)

Vs the Bulldogs

• Meters Gained Differential (looking for + 200 or more) ? -359 ❌
• Marks inside 50 Differential (any positive is a win but the higher the better) ? +3 ✔️
• Contested Possession Differential (looking for a +10 or greater) ? +2 ❌

Season Averages (the ones that count)

Did i say we were finals bound last week!??   Still a bit of work to do!

• Meters Gained Average Differential (looking for an average of + 200 or more) ? +157 ❌

Down from +204 last week but still holding No.4 spot.  Tiger's replacing the Power at No.2  The top five with current ladder positions in parenthesis below.

           Top five ? 1.  Cats 371 (3rd)  2. Tigers 306 (5th)  3. Power 293 (1st)  4. Demons 157 (9th)  5. Bulldogs 148 (8th)

• Marks inside 50 Average Differential (ideally we need to see a top 6 ranking) ? 3rd ✔️

Holding at 3rd with the same average of +2.5

           Top five ? 1. Cats  2. Lions  3. Demons  4. Tigers  5. Power  6. Eagles

• Contested Possession Average Differential (looking for +10 or more) ?  +7.2 ❌

Holding in 3rd place with the average slipping slightly from +7.7 last week.  Below the required pass rate but no team has hit the required pass mark yet.  The Kangas have slipped out of the top 5 being replaced by the Blues at No.4 & the Power slipping from 4th to 5th.

            Top five:   1. Cats  2. Pies  3. Demons  4. Blues  4. Power

Edited August 27, 2020 by Rusty Nails