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Dees 2020: The Good, Bad & Ugly



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Great read , quite a balanced and factual view of last year vs 2018 

if anyone has access to the full article where does the author have us on a predicted ladder finish ? 

Although I’m liking the fact that most of the footy media so far seem to be writing us off making the 8 next year 

 

 

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I agree with what he says about Tomlinson on the wing. Could he be a CHB option ? Salem might be a bit slow but his disposals are certainly near the best at melbourne.

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The Demons have so much potential upside this year, we can only hope they deliver:

- Better drawer

- Better pre season by miles or km’s for youngsters (getting to practice drills with a full team makes a significant difference in connection)

- Appears Burgess is driving them to a new level of fitness that is better suited to our style of play, plus greater running endurance, leading to strong 4th quarters, rather than fadeouts

- Fingers crossed, seemingly few injuries amongst our top 20 players, then depth looks a whole lot better, totally different team

- Hopefully a settled back six of Jetta, May, Lever, Salem, Hibberd, (OMac or other), only Salem didn’t have serious injury issues last year

- Oliver, Viney & Brayshaw in the middle, all having full pre seasons relatively injury free, Petracca better tank to spend more time in the middle. Max is max, and Preuss getting fitter as backup!

- Langdon speed, ball winning & distance gained, Tomlinson endurance & coverage

- Harmes providing flexibility and backup for backline, mids, wingers & even forwards

- Forwards with TMac full preseason, Melksham  & Weideman the same, starts to look very different, add Fritsch full time in the forward line, Petracca cameos

- Then just as bonus, VDB, Smith, Jackson, Rivers, Pickett with hopefully players like ANB, Hunt getting back to their best, and possibly Jones having impact off the bench

- Richardson joining as a coach will help improve our game plan, as he so easily picked us apart

Maybe as a long long time Demon, I’m overly optimistic, or just thinking eventually things must turn, but it seems we have a massive upside. 2018 showed we could do it, from round 5/6 we played some exhilarating football smashing teams for 6 weeks, then the last 6 matches including two finals wins aside from the horror prelim, we had some terrific wins!

The other factor is our star players Max, Clarry, Petracca, Viney, TMac & May are getting into the 24-28 age bracket, aside from Clarry at 22/23, that their bodies are strong enough they know what footy is about and should be ready to roll! Look at when the Tigers broke through, Rance, Martin, Cotchin, & Riewoldt all were over 26yo, look at Eagles as well, the Hawks threepeat, our time is coming
 

Petracca will have a breakout year, so will May being fit and TMac will be closer to 2018 form, and who knows how well Viney will play after having an injury free pre season, his first for many years, even Clarry had the two shoulder ops at end of 2018, will be in better shape

2020 an even year, an Olympic Year, my prediction - a hugely improved year for the Demons! Top 6 maybe even top 4, memberships for family locked in months ago. Go Demons!!!!!!

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9 hours ago, D4Life said:

The Demons have so much potential upside this year, we can only hope they deliver:

- Better drawer

- Better pre season by miles or km’s for youngsters (getting to practice drills with a full team makes a significant difference in connection)

- Appears Burgess is driving them to a new level of fitness that is better suited to our style of play, plus greater running endurance, leading to strong 4th quarters, rather than fadeouts

- Fingers crossed, seemingly few injuries amongst our top 20 players, then depth looks a whole lot better, totally different team

- Hopefully a settled back six of Jetta, May, Lever, Salem, Hibberd, (OMac or other), only Salem didn’t have serious injury issues last year

- Oliver, Viney & Brayshaw in the middle, all having full pre seasons relatively injury free, Petracca better tank to spend more time in the middle. Max is max, and Preuss getting fitter as backup!

- Langdon speed, ball winning & distance gained, Tomlinson endurance & coverage

- Harmes providing flexibility and backup for backline, mids, wingers & even forwards

- Forwards with TMac full preseason, Melksham  & Weideman the same, starts to look very different, add Fritsch full time in the forward line, Petracca cameos

- Then just as bonus, VDB, Smith, Jackson, Rivers, Pickett with hopefully players like ANB, Hunt getting back to their best, and possibly Jones having impact off the bench

- Richardson joining as a coach will help improve our game plan, as he so easily picked us apart

Maybe as a long long time Demon, I’m overly optimistic, or just thinking eventually things must turn, but it seems we have a massive upside. 2018 showed we could do it, from round 5/6 we played some exhilarating football smashing teams for 6 weeks, then the last 6 matches including two finals wins aside from the horror prelim, we had some terrific wins!

The other factor is our star players Max, Clarry, Petracca, Viney, TMac & May are getting into the 24-28 age bracket, aside from Clarry at 22/23, that their bodies are strong enough they know what footy is about and should be ready to roll! Look at when the Tigers broke through, Rance, Martin, Cotchin, & Riewoldt all were over 26yo, look at Eagles as well, the Hawks threepeat, our time is coming
 

Petracca will have a breakout year, so will May being fit and TMac will be closer to 2018 form, and who knows how well Viney will play after having an injury free pre season, his first for many years, even Clarry had the two shoulder ops at end of 2018, will be in better shape

2020 an even year, an Olympic Year, my prediction - a hugely improved year for the Demons! Top 6 maybe even top 4, memberships for family locked in months ago. Go Demons!!!!!!

Totally agree D4L. But hoping for top4 and then a totally changed game plan and structure to take the flag.

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Very good write up, I think it sums up where things are at, what needs to change, and asked important questions. Main question comes at the end though, what was the abberation? 2018 or 2019?

My thoughts (simply) are that we overachieved in 2018 and quite clearly underachieved in 2019. We need things to click for us, and if we get an injury run like what the Tigers got in 2017 I think we can do some serious damage.

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20 hours ago, dl4e said:

I agree with what he says about Tomlinson on the wing. Could he be a CHB option ? Salem might be a bit slow but his disposals are certainly near the best at melbourne.

You mean about how Tomlinson doesn't get much of it?

Honestly, this section of the article fell down when the author suggested Tomlinson was moved to the during finals, when he has played the four the last 3 years at least. 

The contrast between Langdon sneered Tomlinson exists for a reason. One will be attacking, streaming forward. The other will be defensive, blocking holes and forcing the opposition to mean up so they don't have a loose player. 

Tomlinson might not get that many touches but he will be playing a defensive role for our structure. Watch for that. 

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6 hours ago, Pates said:

Very good write up, I think it sums up where things are at, what needs to change, and asked important questions. Main question comes at the end though, what was the abberation? 2018 or 2019?

My thoughts (simply) are that we overachieved in 2018 and quite clearly underachieved in 2019. We need things to click for us, and if we get an injury run like what the Tigers got in 2017 I think we can do some serious damage.

The question I'm about to ask may seem esoteric but is not intended to be. It's a genuine question: Can a team "overachieve"? A team is made up of inividuals each with a maximum potenial (or achievable level of performance). The coach's job is to convert those talents into a coherent peformance. If the players don't perform to their best or if the coach fails to maximise that potential, the team will not do as well as it might. That is, it underachieves. But if every players does his best and the coach does his job, hasn't the team shown what is achievable. In other words, and in a less esoteric expression, wasn't 2018 an example of what can be achieved, rather than an "overachievement"?   

I accept there are differences between the 2018 team and the 2020 team. Some players have retired or otherwise left the club. Some players may be past their peak while others are just moving into their prime. Essentially, though, it's the same team. I refuse to accept the we "overachieved" in 2018. Rather we showed what was possible and what should be possible again in 2020. 

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14 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

The question I'm about to ask may seem esoteric but is not intended to be. It's a genuine question: Can a team "overachieve"?

I see where you are coming from but a team can truly overachieve if it encounters an unusual amount of good luck, eg. injuries to key opponent players during or before when they play the team and this happening way more often than 'average'.    If everything is within normal bounds, then maybe you are right - it is impossible to overchieve.    Spliting hairs.... but there is no football.

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5 hours ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

The question I'm about to ask may seem esoteric but is not intended to be. It's a genuine question: Can a team "overachieve"? A team is made up of inividuals each with a maximum potenial (or achievable level of performance). The coach's job is to convert those talents into a coherent peformance. If the players don't perform to their best or if the coach fails to maximise that potential, the team will not do as well as it might. That is, it underachieves. But if every players does his best and the coach does his job, hasn't the team shown what is achievable. In other words, and in a less esoteric expression, wasn't 2018 an example of what can be achieved, rather than an "overachievement"?   

I accept there are differences between the 2018 team and the 2020 team. Some players have retired or otherwise left the club. Some players may be past their peak while others are just moving into their prime. Essentially, though, it's the same team. I refuse to accept the we "overachieved" in 2018. Rather we showed what was possible and what should be possible again in 2020. 

It is entirely possible for a number of players to all have one of their better year's in the one season.  Everything clicks into gear per se.

And I'm not saying that is what happened in 2018 but in theory,  it's certainly possible.

What we now need is for more of our players to have one of their best years ... this season. 

If that happens we could have a better year (from an overall perspective) than 2018.

Related ... even the best players in the league can have a lean year.  And if a number of your best players all have a lean season in the same season,  you could end up with a poor W/L ratio.

I reckon that could sum up our past 2 seasons but again,  I thought we dropped away too much last season.

 

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15 hours ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

The question I'm about to ask may seem esoteric but is not intended to be. It's a genuine question: Can a team "overachieve"? A team is made up of inividuals each with a maximum potenial (or achievable level of performance). The coach's job is to convert those talents into a coherent peformance. If the players don't perform to their best or if the coach fails to maximise that potential, the team will not do as well as it might. That is, it underachieves. But if every players does his best and the coach does his job, hasn't the team shown what is achievable. In other words, and in a less esoteric expression, wasn't 2018 an example of what can be achieved, rather than an "overachievement"?   

I accept there are differences between the 2018 team and the 2020 team. Some players have retired or otherwise left the club. Some players may be past their peak while others are just moving into their prime. Essentially, though, it's the same team. I refuse to accept the we "overachieved" in 2018. Rather we showed what was possible and what should be possible again in 2020. 

As Sue touched on, yes I feel it's possible for a team to overachieve. Things clicked at the right time to make our overall year look a little better than what I had us at and certain players gain confidence at the right times to play above their normal output. 

I had our gradual progression having us finish at about 5th-6th that year, not making the prelim. Riding a wave of confidence and a bit of luck in the final vs Hawthorn (I still think on the balance of the game we were better), we made it to a prelim where we can into a brick wall rather painfully.

The bulldogs winning the premiership is probably an example I would have of a team overachieving (in the biggest way possible) getting so many elements clicking just perfectly at the right time. Were they the best team that year? Probably not. But they still have the premiership in the cabinet.

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On 1/27/2020 at 10:55 AM, dl4e said:

I agree with what he says about Tomlinson on the wing. Could he be a CHB option ? Salem might be a bit slow but his disposals are certainly near the best at melbourne.

Disagree, I think thomlinson is a natural winger, he is not a key tall but plays more like a midfielder. Yes he isn’t quick but more an elite runner who will link and run out games well. 

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On 1/26/2020 at 10:50 PM, Delusional demon 82 said:

Great read , quite a balanced and factual view of last year vs 2018 

if anyone has access to the full article where does the author have us on a predicted ladder finish ? 

Although I’m liking the fact that most of the footy media so far seem to be writing us off making the 8 next year 

 

 

Another poorly researched opinion piece  in parts (lazy journalism maybe).

 

e.g  he/she lauds Max Gawn as the only player ready to go and heroically stood up all year.

As the club noted only 2 players completed more than 80% of pre-season sessions - GAWN and Lewis.

Of the best 26, vast majority completed less than 30% of sessions.

Of course he stood out.

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Someone posted a really good analysis a while ago about how Tomilinson positions himself which prohibits teams from switching play or transitioning quickly from defense. 

I suspect we haven't picked him up for his ball winning skills. 

Edited by AllMyTeamsAreWank
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We need to win games early to instill confidence, belief and team spirit.

And then we need to win games consistently, not one week on, one week off.

We need a team of guys that will sacrifice all for the team, and do whatever it takes. 

Team not the individual. 

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1 minute ago, hemingway said:

We need to win games early to instill confidence, belief and team spirit.

And then we need to win games consistently, not one week on, one week off.

We need a team of guys that will sacrifice all for the team, and do whatever it takes. 

Team not the individual. 

Unlike some Ernest I actually think we are a good chance in game 1.

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23 minutes ago, old dee said:

Unlike some Ernest I actually think we are a good chance in game 1.

I sincerely hope you are correct in this od.

There would be no better fillip to our season than to win game one over there. It might also bury some nasty hangovers from our ignominious exit in 2018.

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Awaiting the sequel ...   FOR A FEW DOLLARS MORE maybe ‘billy the kid’ would have crossed the great divide for season 2020.

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8 hours ago, AllMyTeamsAreWank said:

Someone posted a really good analysis a while ago about how Tomilinson positions himself which prohibits teams from switching play or transitioning quickly from defense. 

I suspect we haven't picked him up for his ball winning skills. 

deanox made the excellent analysis, and it was fascinating, particularly as Tomlinson’s abilities in this way will perfectly suit our needs. 

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8 hours ago, Demon17 said:

Another poorly researched opinion piece  in parts (lazy journalism maybe).

 

e.g  he/she lauds Max Gawn as the only player ready to go and heroically stood up all year.

As the club noted only 2 players completed more than 80% of pre-season sessions - GAWN and Lewis.

Of the best 26, vast majority completed less than 30% of sessions.

Of course he stood out.

And here, once again, is the clear and primary reason 2019 was trashed. At the risk of repeating myself, of all objective statistics that predict success, or more specifically end-of-season ladder position, total games absent through injury (across the entire playing list) is the most reliable. We finished 2019 not just as the most injured club of the year, but one of the worst since stats became a thing. Not sexy, but the truth. This year is starting from the opposite side of that ledger. 

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10 minutes ago, Webber said:

And here, once again, is the clear and primary reason 2019 was trashed. At the risk of repeating myself, of all objective statistics that predict success, or more specifically end-of-season ladder position, total games absent through injury (across the entire playing list) is the most reliable. We finished 2019 not just as the most injured club of the year, but one of the worst since stats became a thing. Not sexy, but the truth. This year is starting from the opposite side of that ledger. 

Very true Webber if a substantial number of the team has a poor pre season and then you lose sunbstantial numbers during the season it is hardly surprising we lost a lot of games.

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8 hours ago, AllMyTeamsAreWank said:

Someone posted a really good analysis a while ago about how Tomilinson positions himself which prohibits teams from switching play or transitioning quickly from defense. 

I suspect we haven't picked him up for his ball winning skills. 

 

37 minutes ago, Webber said:

deanox made the excellent analysis, and it was fascinating, particularly as Tomlinson’s abilities in this way will perfectly suit our needs. 

If he plays the role I expect him to, those watching at the ground will think Goodwin's a genius and those watching on tv will have no idea why he is getting picked every week because he hardly gets near the ball, especially compared to the excitement Frost brought!

If he plays a different role than I expect (eg as a KPD), I think he'll struggle to add a whole lot of value. 

 

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