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WELCOME TO DEMONLAND - MITCH BROWN


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Trying to work out why I hate this signing so much and I think I've got it.

He's the key forward version of Lewis. He's old, so even if he came in and had one good year he'd be done within 2-3 years - so he's sucking up development time that keeps others in the 2's. He has ok endurance but otherwise no significant athleticism. He has good skills but how much will he use them? He doesn't like the contest - the majority of the marks on his highlights are chest marks. And defensively he's a liability.

Essendon got rid of him because they want to play aggressive front half football with defensive pressure under their new coaches. They also probably know that when you have a Mitch Brown you play a Mitch Brown and that gets you absolutely nowhere long term.

Drafting Pickett and Jackson is a clear sign we want to bring more athleticism and pressure to the forward line and in Jackson's case around the midfield as well.

Why are we adding a poor mans Jack Watts' who's one dimensional and averages 1 tackle per game?

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29 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

Trying to work out why I hate this signing so much and I think I've got it.

He's the key forward version of Lewis. He's old, so even if he came in and had one good year he'd be done within 2-3 years - so he's sucking up development time that keeps others in the 2's. He has ok endurance but otherwise no significant athleticism. He has good skills but how much will he use them? He doesn't like the contest - the majority of the marks on his highlights are chest marks. And defensively he's a liability.

Essendon got rid of him because they want to play aggressive front half football with defensive pressure under their new coaches. They also probably know that when you have a Mitch Brown you play a Mitch Brown and that gets you absolutely nowhere long term.

Drafting Pickett and Jackson is a clear sign we want to bring more athleticism and pressure to the forward line and in Jackson's case around the midfield as well.

Why are we adding a poor mans Jack Watts' who's one dimensional and averages 1 tackle per game?

Jeez you overthink things.

He's cheap and handy tall forward depth.  Break glass if required.

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45 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

He's the key forward version of Lewis. He's old, so even if he came in and had one good year he'd be done within 2-3 years - so he's sucking up development time that keeps others in the 2's.

I think this is a big misconception.  Keeping players in the 2's and letting them learn their craft there rather than in seniors when they are not really ready for it is a big plus for me.  Let players develop at their appropriate level and promote them when they are ready.

Secondly we are not in "development" mode, we are in "win the flag mode".  The player that is the most valuable to the team at the time plays.  I hope we've passed the "give the kids a game to give them a taste" stage.  We're better than that.

A good moneyball selection for mine.

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2 minutes ago, Baghdad Bob said:

I think this is a big misconception.  Keeping players in the 2's and letting them learn their craft there rather than in seniors when they are not really ready for it is a big plus for me.  Let players develop at their appropriate level and promote them when they are ready.

Secondly we are not in "development" mode, we are in "win the flag mode".  The player that is the most valuable to the team at the time plays.  I hope we've passed the "give the kids a game to give them a taste" stage.  We're better than that.

A good moneyball selection for mine.

Weideman has had his time at Casey. It’s time for him to get an extended run.

Moneyball also implies there’s a skill we’ve identified that Brown can contribute that makes him undervalued. 

I don’t think there is. The undervalued skills for key forwards as far as I see them are: 1. Forward pressure. 2. Being able to split a pack and not get outmarked. 3. Versatility to go in to the ruck. 

The moneyball parts of Brown’s game are accurate goal kicking - but I don’t think he can generate many shots on goal - and a supposed ability to go down back.

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17 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

Weideman has had his time at Casey. It’s time for him to get an extended run.

Moneyball also implies there’s a skill we’ve identified that Brown can contribute that makes him undervalued. 

I don’t think there is. The undervalued skills for key forwards as far as I see them are: 1. Forward pressure. 2. Being able to split a pack and not get outmarked. 3. Versatility to go in to the ruck. 

The moneyball parts of Brown’s game are accurate goal kicking - but I don’t think he can generate many shots on goal - and a supposed ability to go down back.

He is durable and works hard. its 2 good traits, and lets be brutally honest, Tom Mc has had one good year as a fwd and Weid hasn't come on yet, so for a cheap acquisition that could play and imapct its a good decision IMO.

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47 minutes ago, Baghdad Bob said:

I think this is a big misconception.  Keeping players in the 2's and letting them learn their craft there rather than in seniors when they are not really ready for it is a big plus for me.  Let players develop at their appropriate level and promote them when they are ready.

Secondly we are not in "development" mode, we are in "win the flag mode".  The player that is the most valuable to the team at the time plays.  I hope we've passed the "give the kids a game to give them a taste" stage.  We're better than that.

A good moneyball selection for mine.

Also if he is in the 2s he'll hopefully offer some on-field guidance to the young brigade - which in turn helps their development (hopefully)

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1 hour ago, DeeSpencer said:

Weideman has had his time at Casey. It’s time for him to get an extended run.

Yes, but he now has to really earn his place, instead of getting games in developmental periods.  Last year was his for the taking, but he had issues with injury.  Now there is no rocks to hide behind.

He has shown on a few occasions he has the stuff.  But no gimmies, for any of our 4 yr + players.

Weide's time is now, to be a strong contributor.

Edited by MyFavouriteMartian
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3 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

Trying to work out why I hate this signing so much and I think I've got it.

He's the key forward version of Lewis. He's old, so even if he came in and had one good year he'd be done within 2-3 years - so he's sucking up development time that keeps others in the 2's. He has ok endurance but otherwise no significant athleticism. He has good skills but how much will he use them? He doesn't like the contest - the majority of the marks on his highlights are chest marks. And defensively he's a liability.

Essendon got rid of him because they want to play aggressive front half football with defensive pressure under their new coaches. They also probably know that when you have a Mitch Brown you play a Mitch Brown and that gets you absolutely nowhere long term.

Drafting Pickett and Jackson is a clear sign we want to bring more athleticism and pressure to the forward line and in Jackson's case around the midfield as well.

Why are we adding a poor mans Jack Watts' who's one dimensional and averages 1 tackle per game?

His stats stack up OK with Brody Mihocek who is the KPF at a Premiership contender

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_compare?playerStatus1=A&tid1=12&pid1=3121&fid1=P&fopt1=2018&playerStatus2=A&tid2=5&pid2=6553&fid2=P&fopt2=2018&type=A

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2 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

Weideman has had his time at Casey. It’s time for him to get an extended run.

Moneyball also implies there’s a skill we’ve identified that Brown can contribute that makes him undervalued. 

I don’t think there is. The undervalued skills for key forwards as far as I see them are: 1. Forward pressure. 2. Being able to split a pack and not get outmarked. 3. Versatility to go in to the ruck. 

The moneyball parts of Brown’s game are accurate goal kicking - but I don’t think he can generate many shots on goal - and a supposed ability to go down back.

What you think and what the footy dept. think are 2 comletely things, and I for one will back the footy dept. over a poster who has no experience in this area.

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53 minutes ago, Fifty-5 said:

Mihocek 1.5 goals to Brown 1.3
1.5 contested marks to 0.5
1.8 marks inside 50 to 1.1
2 tackles compared to 1

In many of the most important stats Brown fall short. That's why he's depth. 

Maybe I should be more appreciative of fit, skilled and available depth. But he's ageing, he's soft and he's defensively ordinary.

There's no moneyball hidden value here. And unless he's the answer down back I can't see the Cam Pedersen unexpected role player like when Cam went in to the ruck with Gawn out.

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7 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

Mihocek 1.5 goals to Brown 1.3
1.5 contested marks to 0.5
1.8 marks inside 50 to 1.1
2 tackles compared to 1

In many of the most important stats Brown fall short. That's why he's depth. 

Maybe I should be more appreciative of fit, skilled and available depth. But he's ageing, he's soft and he's defensively ordinary.

There's no moneyball hidden value here. And unless he's the answer down back I can't see the Cam Pedersen unexpected role player like when Cam went in to the ruck with Gawn out.

I'll just remind you that you're comparing him with Collingwood's main KPF.

Two can play the selective stat game, Brown wins:

Tackles inside I50: 0.8 v 0.6 - I believe this was one of your nominated KPIs?

Contested possession: 5.0 v 4.9

1%: 2.9 v 1.8

Edited by Fifty-5
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4 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

Trying to work out why I hate this signing so much and I think I've got it.

He's the key forward version of Lewis. He's old, so even if he came in and had one good year he'd be done within 2-3 years - so he's sucking up development time that keeps others in the 2's. He has ok endurance but otherwise no significant athleticism. He has good skills but how much will he use them? He doesn't like the contest - the majority of the marks on his highlights are chest marks. And defensively he's a liability.

Essendon got rid of him because they want to play aggressive front half football with defensive pressure under their new coaches. They also probably know that when you have a Mitch Brown you play a Mitch Brown and that gets you absolutely nowhere long term.

Drafting Pickett and Jackson is a clear sign we want to bring more athleticism and pressure to the forward line and in Jackson's case around the midfield as well.

Why are we adding a poor mans Jack Watts' who's one dimensional and averages 1 tackle per game?

He is very cheap depth.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Fifty-5 said:

I'll just remind you that you're comparing him with Collingwood's main KPF.

Two can play the selective stat game, Brown wins:

Tackles inside I50: 0.8 v 0.6 - I believe this was one of your nominated KPIs?

Contested possession: 5.0 v 4.9

1%: 2.8 v 1.8

You linked to 2018, they aren't the numbers I have for 2019.

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