WELCOME TO THE MELBOURNE FOOTBALL CLUB - LUKE JACKSON

[DeeZee 6,718]

It’s a pretty simplistic view to say we are merely taking a Ruckman at 3 . 

Its just a label, and I prefer to look at it that tall super agile smart players don’t grow on trees . Just look at an Adam Goods or Grundy.

Peter Sumich also said that he could play forward and hold his own, as he is very skilled in the air and on the ground.

Will also pinch hit in the Ruck , giving Max a chop out.

[Mach5 4,482]

43 minutes ago, Wrecker45 said:

Out of interest where did Jackson play for Australia? Was he point guard?

Pretty sure he was a PF

[Demon Dynasty 15,163]

2 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

Gold Coast aren’t taking him obviously. 

But reports had us, Adelaide, GWS and Freo all very keen. That’s picks 3, 4, 6, 7. And Sydney keep things close. 

He’s not a unanimous choice at 3 but I don’t see clubs kicking the door down for any of the other top 7 guys. Ash seems popular, but my guess is clubs would be split between those 2 and Young, Flanders and Stephens. 

 

Very much in the top 6 to 10 mix from what i saw in the Nats DS.  Best ruckman in the draft no arguments.  A pick in the 6 to 10 range for a club that is very much in need of a quality ruckman?  Certainly worth serious consideration.

Would i personally take him with our pick 3 given our needs?  It won't matter as my view is worth diddly squat but for mine there's just too much quality ahead that i would regret not snapping up.

Pick 8 had we retained it?  if i thought he was a genuine goal kicking forward option...sure.  Pick 10?  Unlikely he'll be there imv.

Having said that DS there may not be as much fanfare but i think the clubs who have picks in that first 10 would have more than done their background checks, live game attendance, research and would be licking their chops at the prospect of landing any of Ash, Young, Henry, Green and others.  Obviously some aren't realistic menu options but they would still love to land them somehow.

Speaking of which, to help ourselves with pick 10 (or others out lower down if we still miss) we simply must bid on Green.  Land him or not it's the correct winning strat imv and might help an Ash or someone slip through if we get lucky (assuming we don't nominate Young with 3).

Edited November 27, 2019 by Rusty Nails

[poita 3,571]

45 minutes ago, Stretch Johnson said:

So your theory is to not draft talls in the first round... or at all?

Key position players should be the number one priority in the first round, but ruckmen are not key position players. The issue with all of Cook, Weideman and Watts is/was the lack of hunger for the contest. Weideman in particular with his size should be crashing packs and knocking blokes over, but he plays like he has the build of Fritsch or Hannan. He was simply a poor selection given the other key forwards in that draft.

Back on Jackson, I'll be bitterly disappointed if we select him. There is little chance we can develop him as a ruckman with Gawn and Preuss dominating game time at both AFL and VFL level, unless we have injuries. There is very little evidence that he can play as a genuine key forward and any thought of him playing as a midfielder is pure speculation. Ruckmen are inconsequential to building a premiership team, hence why only one ruck taken with a first round draft pick in the past 20 years has played in a premiership.

Key position players and genuine midfielders should be our only thoughts in the first round of the draft. That is what premiership teams are built on.

[dazzledavey36 48,620]

6 minutes ago, poita said:

Key position players should be the number one priority in the first round, but ruckmen are not key position players. The issue with all of Cook, Weideman and Watts is/was the lack of hunger for the contest. Weideman in particular with his size should be crashing packs and knocking blokes over, but he plays like he has the build of Fritsch or Hannan. He was simply a poor selection given the other key forwards in that draft.

Back on Jackson, I'll be bitterly disappointed if we select him. There is little chance we can develop him as a ruckman with Gawn and Preuss dominating game time at both AFL and VFL level, unless we have injuries. There is very little evidence that he can play as a genuine key forward and any thought of him playing as a midfielder is pure speculation. Ruckmen are inconsequential to building a premiership team, hence why only one ruck taken with a first round draft pick in the past 20 years has played in a premiership.

Key position players and genuine midfielders should be our only thoughts in the first round of the draft. That is what premiership teams are built on.

Better start feeling that way now.

[Deestinga2 48]

54 minutes ago, Stretch Johnson said:

So your theory is to not draft talls in the first round... or at all?

Not in the first round. 

 

[Slartibartfast 15,715]

25 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

Very much in the top 6 to 10 mix from what i saw in the Nats DS.  Best ruckman in the draft no arguments.  A pick in the 6 to 10 range for a club that is very much in need of a quality ruckman? 

Speaking of which, to help ourselves with pick 10 (or others out lower down if we still miss) we simply must bid on Green. 

Rusty you've spent a lot of time looking a vision but you are missing something if you think we are solely drafting a ruckman.  He's a high possession winning tall who Taylor believes will play forward.  We aren't drafting a ruckman. It's frustrating that there is a lack of vision of him playing forward but Taylor has seen him do this multiple times.  You're flying blind, he isn't.

Again I haven't seen Green play but I see in two phantom drafts now that predict he is unlikely to be bid on until later in the top 10.  These guys are professional recruiters, they want to keep their job so they do as well as they can.  If the first (say) 8 clubs don't bid on Green then how silly would we be to do it.

This draft speculation is lots of fun but we are amateurs with only part of the information and vision the recruiters have.

Time to trust their judgement.

 

[Stretch Johnson 2,568]

18 minutes ago, poita said:

Key position players should be the number one priority in the first round, but ruckmen are not key position players. The issue with all of Cook, Weideman and Watts is/was the lack of hunger for the contest. Weideman in particular with his size should be crashing packs and knocking blokes over, but he plays like he has the build of Fritsch or Hannan. He was simply a poor selection given the other key forwards in that draft.

Back on Jackson, I'll be bitterly disappointed if we select him. There is little chance we can develop him as a ruckman with Gawn and Preuss dominating game time at both AFL and VFL level, unless we have injuries. There is very little evidence that he can play as a genuine key forward and any thought of him playing as a midfielder is pure speculation. Ruckmen are inconsequential to building a premiership team, hence why only one ruck taken with a first round draft pick in the past 20 years has played in a premiership.

Key position players and genuine midfielders should be our only thoughts in the first round of the draft. That is what premiership teams are built on.

Get key forwards in the first round.  But only the hungry ones.   Got it.

So each club gets 1 each of these hungry key forwards in the first round and then....draft the rest.

 

[Grimes Times 1,278]

12 minutes ago, Deestinga2 said:

Not in the first round. 

 

90% of the quality talls within the AFL are drafted in the first round. 

[DeeZee 6,718]

Strange logic indeed.

Some would prefer to go for a Tambling option than a Buddy or Roughy. 

More recently would have passed on the King brothers.

Gimme a break.

[Demons11 6,404]

31 minutes ago, Deestinga2 said:

Not in the first round. 

 

Roughead, Nic Nat, Buddy, Josh Kennedy, Riewoldt are all fairly solid. 
In the last few years we have seen Ben King, Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay and Aaron Naughton. 
 

[Greendale 327]

Cal Twomey was just saying on the draft countdown that he had spoken to many recruiters about who they would take at pick 3, and about half of them would be going for Jackson. He's definitely a bolter, but perhaps not as unconventional as first thought.

[Demon Dynasty 15,163]

1 hour ago, Baghdad Bob said:

Rusty you've spent a lot of time looking a vision but you are missing something if you think we are solely drafting a ruckman.  He's a high possession winning tall who Taylor believes will play forward.  We aren't drafting a ruckman. It's frustrating that there is a lack of vision of him playing forward but Taylor has seen him do this multiple times.  You're flying blind, he isn't.

Again I haven't seen Green play but I see in two phantom drafts now that predict he is unlikely to be bid on until later in the top 10.  These guys are professional recruiters, they want to keep their job so they do as well as they can.  If the first (say) 8 clubs don't bid on Green then how silly would we be to do it.

This draft speculation is lots of fun but we are amateurs with only part of the information and vision the recruiters have.

Time to trust their judgement.

 

Exactly what i said 4 hours ago in the phantom draft thread BB.  Don't worry i know they know a whole stack more based on a stack more.  That's why they are there and i'm here ?...

https://demonland.com/forums/topic/47074-phantom-drafts/?do=findComment&comment=1782239

[Moonshadow 16,099]

5 hours ago, Docs Demons said:

Trust he is better than the last Jacko we had!!

Peter Jackson was brilliant

[Paulo 285]

2 hours ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

I assume it's purely hypothetical, but I wonder what we would do in the unlikely event that the Gold Coast doesn't select as expected for picks 1 and 2? Would we still stick with Jackson?

No because gc would have him

[Docs Demons 1,656]

26 minutes ago, Moonshadow said:

Peter Jackson was brilliant

You and Chook are quick off the mark with the Ricky and Peter responses. Good one's.

[DemonOX 8,529]

2 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Better start feeling that way now.

Have u been told by someone at the club or is it ur gut feel dd?

[DeeSpencer 23,051]

2 hours ago, poita said:

Key position players should be the number one priority in the first round, but ruckmen are not key position players. The issue with all of Cook, Weideman and Watts is/was the lack of hunger for the contest. Weideman in particular with his size should be crashing packs and knocking blokes over, but he plays like he has the build of Fritsch or Hannan. He was simply a poor selection given the other key forwards in that draft.

Back on Jackson, I'll be bitterly disappointed if we select him. There is little chance we can develop him as a ruckman with Gawn and Preuss dominating game time at both AFL and VFL level, unless we have injuries. There is very little evidence that he can play as a genuine key forward and any thought of him playing as a midfielder is pure speculation. Ruckmen are inconsequential to building a premiership team, hence why only one ruck taken with a first round draft pick in the past 20 years has played in a premiership.

Key position players and genuine midfielders should be our only thoughts in the first round of the draft. That is what premiership teams are built on.

So Collingwood miss out on winning a premiership by one fluke kick from Sheed and:
Grundy - first round pick
De Goey - not a midfielder, not a key forward - top 5 pick
Jaiden Stephenson - not a midfielder, not a key forward - pick 6

Are they all bad picks? They look like excellent picks if you ask me.

Yes you can win a grand final without a gun ruck and yes gun rucks can be nullified by lesser opponents but good taggers shut out good midfielders a lot of the time too. And plenty of finals have featured pretty average defenders shut down good forwards.

Nick Riewoldt got comfortably held against the Pies in his absolute prime by a young Nathan Brown and Ben Reid IIRC. Joel Hamling (with an assist from Dale Morris) shut down Buddy. 

Zaine Cordy and Jacob Townsend are premiership winning CHF's in recent years. 
 

Edited November 27, 2019 by DeeSpencer

[DeeSpencer 23,051]

2 minutes ago, DemonOX said:

Have u been told by someone at the club or is it ur gut feel dd?

Theory: If we were picking anyone but Jackson we would've traded that information with a journo for inside info on what teams 7-15 are doing.

And we'd also look pretty silly for getting Jackson's hopes up.

I think we're past the point of people debating it.

[TeamPlayedFine39 8,137]

1 minute ago, DeeSpencer said:

Theory: If we were picking anyone but Jackson we would've traded that information with a journo for inside info on what teams 7-15 are doing.

And we'd also look pretty silly for getting Jackson's hopes up.

I think we're past the point of people debating it.

Yep.
With our pick 3, being the first 'live pick' of the draft - no need for games, smoke and mirrors.  Just like pick 1 has never been a secret, I'd suggest our pick three, as reported unanimously now across the football media, is set in stone.

 

[old dee 22,802]

2 hours ago, Baghdad Bob said:

Rusty you've spent a lot of time looking a vision but you are missing something if you think we are solely drafting a ruckman.  He's a high possession winning tall who Taylor believes will play forward.  We aren't drafting a ruckman. It's frustrating that there is a lack of vision of him playing forward but Taylor has seen him do this multiple times.  You're flying blind, he isn't.

Again I haven't seen Green play but I see in two phantom drafts now that predict he is unlikely to be bid on until later in the top 10.  These guys are professional recruiters, they want to keep their job so they do as well as they can.  If the first (say) 8 clubs don't bid on Green then how silly would we be to do it.

This draft speculation is lots of fun but we are amateurs with only part of the information and vision the recruiters have.

Time to trust their judgement.

 

If you look at the success rate of drafting in the first round it is amazing how often the players who are picked don't make it at senior level. You are correct the recruiters are the best ones to judge but they have a high failure rate simply IMO because you are making educated guesses. The MFC has done reasonably well in the last few years but nothing is guaranteed.

Edited November 27, 2019 by old dee

[Demon Dynasty 15,163]

2 hours ago, Baghdad Bob said:

Again I haven't seen Green play but I see in two phantom drafts now that predict he is unlikely to be bid on until later in the top 10.  These guys are professional recruiters, they want to keep their job so they do as well as they can.  If the first (say) 8 clubs don't bid on Green then how silly would we be to do it.

I think you will find the phantoms you are referring to are the ones with the 'likely' pick orders taken in to account BA once the media had some wind of who (roughly) was likely to bid for whom and also after the pick swaps were settled (approx Nov onwards).

Most of the phantoms prior to that (October and earlier) based on pure rankings had him in the top 3 to 6 draftees.

Someone correct me if im wrong but from my understanding the only reason they are saying he will go that low on draft night is because they believe we are going to fail to bid on him with 3 when that is the exact thing we should be doing.

Failing to bid with the bid before their No.4 then allows GWS an extra free hit in the top 10 with their No.4 pick.   The other clubs won't bother after that as the only bid that would really effect GWS is the one that forces them to use their pick 4...ie; the no.3 pick ....ours.

Any bid after ours cant come till pick 5, the Swans, which will mean nothing as GWS can just match the bid with their next pick, pick 40 (plus the rest i assume), and also go in to deficit for 2020 assuming they don't have enough points to match a bid at 10 or wherever.

Edited November 27, 2019 by Rusty Nails

[Dante 2,562]

3 minutes ago, old dee said:

If you look at the success rate of drafting in the first round it is amazing how often the players who are picked done make it at senior level. You are correct the recruiters are the best ones to judge but they have a high failure rate simply IMO because you are making educated guesses. The MFC has done reasonably well in the last few years but nothing is guaranteed.

Maybe the recruiters pick the correct players but the club fail to develop them?

Of course nothing is guaranteed, but if the club the right system in place, there is a lot more chance the players will develop.

[sisso 2,382]

No issue with Jackson at #3 as a player, go home factor is the concern. 

[Roger Mellie 3,481]

On 11/26/2019 at 12:19 PM, Baghdad Bob said:

Well Demonland has a lot to answer for in that case:

2019 AFL draft

First round: 7pm - 9.30pm Wednesday November 27

Second round onwards: 7pm - 9.30pm Thursday November 28

FMD They're going to drag out the first round for 2 1/2 hours?

That's scaling new heights in dull for the AFL.

Lucky we have two picks to break up all that excitement.