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Premiership Window: Open or Closed?



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Melbourne

How does the age and games played stack up?

The list demographics suggest the Demons are in the premiership window. This year only three teams were less experienced on average (65.7 games) and just four were younger (23 years). The average premier's numbers from the past decade are 66.1 and 23.6, respectively. Jordan Lewis has retired and Jeff Garlett was delisted, so Melbourne might dip or remain similar in age and experience.

Do they have enough quality?

Just two Demons finished with 'elite' status after four started that way. There is potential for more than just Max Gawn and Clayton Oliver to be placed in this class. Players such as Tom McDonald, Steven May, Jake Lever, Christian Salem, Jake Melksham, Christian Petracca and Angus Brayshaw should be better next season – and must be if Melbourne is to improve.

What do the numbers say about the way they play?

Only Gold Coast was worse in coughing up points and scoring from forward-half turnovers, and the Dees were mid-table in differential for post-clearance groundball-gets and inside 50s. This is a team that openly builds from the contest out, but went from near-record numbers in the clinches a season ago to being a bit better than average in that department in 2019.

Is their premiership window open?

Ajar, and could be opening further.

The list demographics and what Melbourne produced in the 2018 finals – despite the dreadful campaign this year – mean there is still some optimism for next season and beyond. – Marc McGowan

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If our 'premiership window' rated as  'Ajar' is for 2020 then fair call.  But beyond 2020 it is well and truly open. 

This year was a big set back.  But every reason to think we will improve enough in 2020 to make finals and perhaps win one.  So in contention 2021 onward.  As to winning one...who knows.  Very hard to do.

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Whilst there is hardly anything I would like to see more than an MFC flag, I honestly don't feel like it is the most important thing for this club to achieve over the next 3-5 years. We need a sustained period where we are competitive, hard and fight out every game from start to finish. We need to try to find a way to emulate our neighbours at Collingwood and build a club that is ruthless and expects nothing less than absolute commitment to winning relentlessly.

I would be happy if the next 5 years saw us defy any percieved lack of talent, or bad luck with injuries, or bad runs with umpires, and just give every team we play a tough time week in week out. That will provide my kids a reason to watch this club with pride and give them a reason to love them (instead of turning to the Bulldogs).

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Firmly shut we currently have holes on and off field you could drive a truck through.

If things go our way we might fall into eighth place. 

I watched the weekends games, the teams involved had a number of players who turned the result.

we have no one who could turn the result of a high pressure final. 

The two teams on Saturday have multiple key forwards who are can kick 4-5 goals we have one average KPF. 

Lots of work needed to be a credible finalist let alone win a GF.

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14 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

That window has been deadlocked shut for 55 years, and I truly hope none of the players or staff think the 'window is ajar' as there's no chance they break the longest drought in football without a massive shift in attitude throughout the club.

 

Sadly I think you are 100% correct , we are better than this years result but a Premiership threat we aren't. 

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23 minutes ago, rufus said:

Whilst there is hardly anything I would like to see more than an MFC flag, I honestly don't feel like it is the most important thing for this club to achieve over the next 3-5 years. We need a sustained period where we are competitive, hard and fight out every game from start to finish. We need to try to find a way to emulate our neighbours at Collingwood and build a club that is ruthless and expects nothing less than absolute commitment to winning relentlessly.

I would be happy if the next 5 years saw us defy any percieved lack of talent, or bad luck with injuries, or bad runs with umpires, and just give every team we play a tough time week in week out. That will provide my kids a reason to watch this club with pride and give them a reason to love them (instead of turning to the Bulldogs).

I agree. I don't equate success with winning a flag although that is the ultimate success.   Rather than one flag and 49 years uncompetitive, I'd prefer 50 years competitive.  Better than both of course would be a period like N Smith era.

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22 minutes ago, old dee said:

Firmly shut we currently have holes on and off field you could drive a truck through.

If things go our way we might fall into eighth place. 

I watched the weekends games, the teams involved had a number of players who turned the result.

we have no one who could turn the result of a high pressure final. 

The two teams on Saturday have multiple key forwards who are can kick 4-5 goals we have one average KPF. 

Lots of work needed to be a credible finalist let alone win a GF.

You are right about those deficiencies, but it's not as if we were bundled out of the finals last year in game 1.  Surely those 2 wins show at least a smidgen of credibility as a finalist.

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Firmly shut until the coaches come up with an actual game plan.

We didnt even have one in 2018 when we made the prelim final, we just caught teams off guard with our 'chaos ball'.

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1 hour ago, sue said:

You are right about those deficiencies, but it's not as if we were bundled out of the finals last year in game 1.  Surely those 2 wins show at least a smidgen of credibility as a finalist.

In 2018 we had an easy draw and had 50 goals from Hogan. At the end of July we had not beaten one team in the eight. We then had a purple patch over the last six weeks. That six weeks we had the return on AVB who made a noticeable difference . Come the Preliminary we saw how good we really were.

Come this year we had a draw that was harder, a long list of injuries to important player, no goals from Hogan and we finished second last. IMO our 2018 finished faltered us but we are not as bad as this year.

That brings me to 2020 still no 50 goal forward to replace Hogan and AVB probably won't play much then add a FD that is "maybe" , a number of the better 2018 players are now gone or on their last ( Jones, Hibbert, Lewis ) and  I can see nothing that will mean we can improve beyond 8- 10. Zero chance of making a GF let alone winning one. 

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25 minutes ago, old dee said:

In 2018 we had an easy draw and had 50 goals from Hogan. At the end of July we had not beaten one team in the eight. We then had a purple patch over the last six weeks. That six weeks we had the return on AVB who made a noticeable difference . Come the Preliminary we saw how good we really were.

2018, the year of the dead cat bounce.

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I think the prelim hurt us more than we care to admit. A 20 point loss and things would have been hungry. That loss made us question a lot of things, no matter the voices from the club that it didn't. And yes a shocking pre-season on top of that. On our day we have a certain something. But last year was unfit players / injured players running around in an incoherent mess - filling holes they were not made for and with a game plan that was made up on butchers paper. 

A good preseason with clear direction from the top... and hey.. we are back in it.

A bad preseason and more clear as mud ideas from the top and we are in for another decade of pain. This year will make or break a lot of things IMHO

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Watch the Preliminary Finals, particularly Saturday, players going at the contest 2, 3 Sometimes 4 times. 

How close is this list to doing that? Is this what Darren Burgess is going to bring to the club?

Goodwin also must learn when to play the Full Contested Game, you cannot play that way all year. The fast wingman must be respected and used at times. 

Goodwins use of the Wings in 2019 was appalling 

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I have posted before about the late Dean Bailey's comment that it takes 70 games for a core group playing together to build the necessary understanding within the team.

Also McCartney once said that it takes five years to develop a footy player.

When added together, 2020 is the year when both streams come together. Think Oliver, Brayshaw, Petracca, Salem, Viney, TMac, Frost, Weideman, Max, Harmes, Hunt, Melksham, Hibbert and others.

Remember that Hogan missed playing in the great games at the end of 2018 and AVB finally played. There is genuine cause for hope if we have a full pre season.

2020

Go dees.

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Actually  the window was never open..really ...a gust of wind caught it and everyone  got excited. 

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Optimistic and it can be turned around quickly . It comes down to attitude the right picks in 2 outside mids or wingers as they call them and a bit of luck with injuries. The rest can take care of itself. 

We have time on our side to have it corrected.  IMO we will see a constructive format in 2020.

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Other penetrating questions that need answering:

 

Premiership Toaster: burning toast, or leaving it underdone?

Premiership Vacuum Cleaner: on turbo charge, or full of dust?

Premiership Letterbox: full of mail, or empty?

 

All predictors of future success every bit as accurate as the Premiership Window.

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