Does the Tigers win give us hope?

[Binmans PA 25,892]

42 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

Defensively I think we need some speed in the front half - and coordinated, well coached, well drilled pressure - and then a fit midfield group which includes clearly an upgrade on the wings in terms of fitness and smart positioning and then a proper two way midfield effort. I look at the way the Giants are defending this finals campaign and think that's the blueprint for what we can do which. And the way we've defended last year even without the ideal defensive personnel has shown we were on the right path there. Lever in the Haynes role, May in the Phil Davis (or Lachie Keeffe) role and off we go.

In terms of the plan with the ball I think we need to train a style that allows us to do 3 things.

Plan B: Slow down the line plays that use Gawn and hopefully a pair of competent tall forwards.
Plan ? A fitter midfield group particularly on the wings that works hard for switches and uncontested steady build up play

Plan A: Maximise what I see as the strength of our team for ball movement which is that we've got Oliver, Harmes, Gus as mids, Petracca mid/fwd, Melksham and Fritsch forward. We've got a lot of 188cm guys who can either take a grab or win the ball if it spills. We don't need to out sprint teams if we can get the ball moving our way and spread through the corridor and to the fat side at half forward we've got a lot of guys who can get the ball on the lead. The Eagles are excellent at taking riskier kicks to Yeo in the middle or Ryan, Waterman, a 3rd tall etc at half forward. Then it's one on ones deep which is why the Eagles talls are so potent.

Pretty much I just want to see us add width and variety to the style we played in 2018. The play on and quick kicking game can be extremely damaging it just needs to be balanced with some safer play and a little more creative and less running in to a brick wall.

Then we also need a big improvement in the way we link with handballs from contested situations. The Tigers are the forward handball masters and that's where I'm not sure we could ever match them - no one can when the game opens up - but we have to at least become competent at stoppages and from long kicks down the line in getting runners free in to space. Again, fitter runners and more speed but apart from that just train the right set ups.

I like it.

I was at a family birthday earlier today with the other half of my family who support Geelong.

They were furious that Scott had changed their game style half way through the year, from manic forward pressure to a more controlled style of play. I argued that Scott (who I think is a pretty good coach, despite fluking a flag in his first year) probably had to change the game style mid year, given Geelong had stacked its forward half with relatively young players. With such a taxing game style, they were never going to be able to sustain that play for the entire year. And when he changed the system, they started to lose.

Then having qualified for the top 4, Scott reverted to that manic style again in the finals series as this is a proven finals-winning formula (see Richmond 2017).

Their other complaint was that Scott rotated players around far too much against Richmond and playing Blicavs on a wing didn't help their cause, while shifting a dominant Dangerfield forward and off the ball, changed the course of the match.

Now, I argued once again that rotations come into it and with such a taxing game style, it's difficult to implement for 120 minutes, particularly at 110% finals pressure-cooker intensity.

This brings me back to your post and our game style going forward.

Not only does the taxing game style concern me (though Burgess will hopefully help in this area), but the lack of clear tall forward options for us worries me. Fritsch, Petracca, Melksham are all really good medium options and in form will be damaging forwards that hit the scoreboard regularly. But we need someone to step up and be the man to take that big contested mark inside 50 when we really need it. Can Tom replicate his first two finals' performances? He really leapt at the ball in those games and took some great contested marks. As did Weideman.

If we can stay fit and get a proper pre season into Lever, May, Hibberd and Jetta, I think with continuity together early next year, this could go a long way to forming an impregnable defensive line.

With more run on the wings from Tomlinson, Langdon and potentially a KK pushing for selection, this should hopefully contribute to greater two-way-running, as will full pre seasons for Oliver, Petracca, Brayshaw, Harmes and Viney.

Preuss needs a massive pre season, because right now, he's a liability up forward and in the ruck. 

So the clear trend of high pressure forward set ups are something we need to get back to. Playing the territory battle in our attacking 50. But as many of us acknowledge, we desperately need speed in our forward 50, to compliment the height and strength of those mid-sized forwards, as well as McDonald and Weideman. If well coached, this will enable us to play the forward pressure game that Geelong played and Richmond played so successfully - two teams, it's worth noting, that aren't known as great clearance teams.

What we have over those teams is a potentially dominant midfield group that will either win the contested possession and get it moving forward or defend the opposition's spread. It needs to be two-way running though as you say and I truly believe the missing piece that can enable us to leap back up the ladder is leg-speed in our forward 50, combined with forwards who create a contest and kick goals.

We coped relatively well defensively this year, but as we are well aware of, couldn't score. Fix the scoring and we'll win more often than not. 

[Lucifers Hero 36,983]

On 9/21/2019 at 1:02 PM, Robbie57 said:

If you look back it was not so long ago they were Ninthmond. The coach was under constant scrutiny, "can he coach?" was the media and supporter's refrain. As noted elsewhere it was only a few years ago that they cleaned out all assistant coaches and gave him one more chance. A solid list with a few stars but not stellar. Players like Grimes have improved with sheer hard work. Ninth at the bye they didn't drop their heads. 

I look at where they were and think we certainly can emulate that outcome. Houli in a post match interview stated how much the players love Hardwick and how he believes in them. Before last year I got that sense from our players. Last night their recruiting of two high profile players Lynch and Prestia really paid off. Perhaps we need to be bold again in that space. 

At this time of year we tend to focus on our woes and holes but are we that different to the old Ninthmond?  I have some real confidence we can do it if we hang in there. I look at what the Tigers have done and see no reason we can't do the same.

I love the optimism and hope that goes with comparisons to the Tigers.  This is their recent track record:

6 of 7 years in the finals.  2016 was clearly an aberration.  The % shows they have always been a high scoring and good defensive side (except 2016), even before they regularly made finals.

They made some bold changes at end of 2016, not the least of which was bringing in Balme.  The mentoring of Hardwick and the steadying hand he brought to the club shouldn't be underestimated. 

Other than re-vamping the assistant coaches I see little similarity with our recent past. 

Can we copy Tigers and go from the bottom of the ladder to premiers or regular PF/GF.  Personally I doubt it.  Ask again after we have made finals for 3/4 years.

Sadly, there is just as much chance that we are a 'flash in the pan' team like Adelaide (GF 2017 after several years of finals), Freo (GF 2015 after several years of finals), Port (PF 2014).  But I desperately hope we are not.

Edited September 22, 2019 by Lucifer's Hero

[DeeSpencer 23,058]

15 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

 

6 of 7 years in the finals.  2016 was clearly an aberration.  The % shows they have always been a high scoring and good defensive side (except 2016), even before they regularly made finals.

 

Sadly, there is just as much chance that we are a 'flash in the pan' team like Adelaide (GF 2017 after several years of finals), Freo (GF 2015 after several years of finals), Port (PF 2014).  But I desperately hope we are not.

The comparison with the Tigers I think is more that they started rebuilding (for the 2nd or 3rd consecutive time) in 2010 with Hardwick, made finals from 13-15 with a bunch of quality players but were poor around the fringes then dipped. We started rebuilding (for the 400th time) with Roos in 2014 and all but made finals in 17 as well as 18, we've got a lot of quality and we've got stuff all around the fringes.

Bouncing back to win the flag almost certainly won't happen but there's a lot of positives to take from 16/17 that compare favourably to Richmond's 13-15. Yes it's 3 finals series to 1 but we also managed 3 finals in 1 year compared with 3 elimination final losses! 

Maybe a better comparison would be some of the North seasons that saw them bounce back but I want to be a little more optimistic than that!

[Mazer Rackham 14,968]

On 9/21/2019 at 4:56 PM, Demonsone said:

Successful clubs that win flags maintain period of success which sees them play in number of prelims...

In every sport, every game, the clubs/players with repeated success are the ones that are there or thereabouts year in and year out.

You can't force a premiership/championship/grand slam title/etc, you can only be good enough to get to the pointy end, then have things fall your way. Injuries, a run of good form, refereeing ... 

The Dogs in 16 were the "exception the proved the rule". Everything went their way (especially the umpiring), but you only get the chance to fluke it if you are in the running at the pointy end. Run last year's finals series 20 times over and we might pinch a flag or two ... all hypothetical now, of course.

Melbourne Storm are a great example of being there again and again. Some years it works out and some years not. It's the long run that counts.

(Having said that, a fluked flag for the mighty Demons wouldn't be something that I would send back for a refund.)

GO DEMONS!!!

[Lucifers Hero 36,983]

10 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

The comparison with the Tigers I think is more that they started rebuilding (for the 2nd or 3rd consecutive time) in 2010 with Hardwick, made finals from 13-15 with a bunch of quality players but were poor around the fringes then dipped. We started rebuilding (for the 400th time) with Roos in 2014 and all but made finals in 17 as well as 18, we've got a lot of quality and we've got stuff all around the fringes.

Bouncing back to win the flag almost certainly won't happen but there's a lot of positives to take from 16/17 that compare favourably to Richmond's 13-15. Yes it's 3 finals series to 1 but we also managed 3 finals in 1 year compared with 3 elimination final losses! 

Maybe a better comparison would be some of the North seasons that saw them bounce back but I want to be a little more optimistic than that!

If that is the intended comparison to the Tigers, it is drawing a long bow, imv.

I'm also optimistic.  Its just that there is little to support that we can copy tigers, roos, crows or anyone else.  tbh, at this stage I would settle for a sustained period of making and winning some finals. 

[DeeSpencer 23,058]

39 minutes ago, A F said:

They were furious that Scott had changed their game style half way through the year, from manic forward pressure to a more controlled style of play. I argued that Scott (who I think is a pretty good coach, despite fluking a flag in his first year) probably had to change the game style mid year, given Geelong had stacked its forward half with relatively young players. With such a taxing game style, they were never going to be able to sustain that play for the entire year. And when he changed the system, they started to lose.

Then having qualified for the top 4, Scott reverted to that manic style again in the finals series as this is a proven finals-winning formula (see Richmond 2017).

Their other complaint was that Scott rotated players around far too much against Richmond and playing Blicavs on a wing didn't help their cause, while shifting a dominant Dangerfield forward and off the ball, changed the course of the match.

The Cats played really slow from the backline all year, which requires fitness but controls tempo. If anything I think they got too comfortable going too slow and to beat the best defensive sides you have to put pace in to the game at times. Their backline didn't have the skills and run. For some reason they moved Clark from half back (he was great forward too), then moved Tuohy and then moved or lost Duncan. Richmond have 3 slashes from half back - Houli, Short and Baker. The Pies have 2 - Crisp, Noble and can get run from Howe, Maynard and Moore. The cats rely on Tom Stewart doing it all and whoever else they use on the day. Unusual. 

Apart from that I just think their forward line fell apart. Hawkins obviously had a moment of madness. Gary Rohan kicked 20+ goals in the first half of the year as the 3rd tall and then about 4 in the whole second half of the season, unfortunately you can't rely on him. Young Jordan Clark got injured and the rest of their small brigade that bought pressure and skill were found wanting once teams worked out that they only had a few tall targets and to just jump 1 defender and stay down on the smalls. Atkins, Gryan, Gaz and Dalhaus weren't going to kick a winning score alongside Esava and Henderson, they needed that 3rd marking option as well as Hawkins in.

Chris Scott probably outsmarted himself with coaching moves but he had to try different things to get the edge on the Tigers because once the Tigers got rolling they were done. Dropping Stanley probably wasn't smart but the Cats have a surplus of tall defenders and a lack of ruckmen. Blicavs on a wing was a reflection of that same surplus of defenders and a lack of outside run that comes from playing half your games at a stadium without wings!

Overall I like the way the Cats are reliable from the back half and manic in the forward half, plus the inside mid pressure Parfitt creates. There's lessons there for us in the way they moved players to create a steadier backline (Selwood defensive winger), more defensive accountable inside midfield and reworked almost their entire forward line in one summer - which worked for half a season.

[Binmans PA 25,892]

43 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

The Cats played really slow from the backline all year, which requires fitness but controls tempo. If anything I think they got too comfortable going too slow and to beat the best defensive sides you have to put pace in to the game at times. Their backline didn't have the skills and run. For some reason they moved Clark from half back (he was great forward too), then moved Tuohy and then moved or lost Duncan. Richmond have 3 slashes from half back - Houli, Short and Baker. The Pies have 2 - Crisp, Noble and can get run from Howe, Maynard and Moore. The cats rely on Tom Stewart doing it all and whoever else they use on the day. Unusual. 

Apart from that I just think their forward line fell apart. Hawkins obviously had a moment of madness. Gary Rohan kicked 20+ goals in the first half of the year as the 3rd tall and then about 4 in the whole second half of the season, unfortunately you can't rely on him. Young Jordan Clark got injured and the rest of their small brigade that bought pressure and skill were found wanting once teams worked out that they only had a few tall targets and to just jump 1 defender and stay down on the smalls. Atkins, Gryan, Gaz and Dalhaus weren't going to kick a winning score alongside Esava and Henderson, they needed that 3rd marking option as well as Hawkins in.

Chris Scott probably outsmarted himself with coaching moves but he had to try different things to get the edge on the Tigers because once the Tigers got rolling they were done. Dropping Stanley probably wasn't smart but the Cats have a surplus of tall defenders and a lack of ruckmen. Blicavs on a wing was a reflection of that same surplus of defenders and a lack of outside run that comes from playing half your games at a stadium without wings!

Overall I like the way the Cats are reliable from the back half and manic in the forward half, plus the inside mid pressure Parfitt creates. There's lessons there for us in the way they moved players to create a steadier backline (Selwood defensive winger), more defensive accountable inside midfield and reworked almost their entire forward line in one summer - which worked for half a season.

Yep, completely agree. Trading out Frosty will have to happen if we want a steadier, more reliable backline too.

[DistrACTION Jackson 6,388]

The thing about the Tigers is they now have a very mature core group and younger guys around the fringes. They are right in the sweet spot and we are still 3-4 years from being in a similar position.

Cotchin - 29

Martin - 28

Reiwoldt - 30

Houli - 31

Astbury - 28

Edwards - 30

Lynch - 26

Lambert - 27

Prestia - 26

Grimes - 28

Caddy - 26

Broad - 26

That is 12 of the 22 that played in the prelim who are 26 or over. 

[Wrecker45 3,378]

Getting rid of Deledio for them was like Watts for us.

There are lots of similarities.

[Ethan Tremblay 28,288]

The biggest change was Hardwick’s attitude. He turned into the sort of coach the players wanted to play for, he loosened up and stopped being an angry robot. 

Edited September 22, 2019 by Ethan Tremblay

[Skin Deeamond 339]

On 9/21/2019 at 1:34 PM, Demonsone said:

Tigers got the right people in e.g. Balme as football manager

• There draft picks before the success are better A+ e.g. Cotchin, Revolt, Rance, Martin
• Their drafting/Free agency Lynch Prestia
• Stronger leadership/culture 

MFC have cleaned out their assistance inc new Fitness coach, so time will tell.

• How many A graders do we have
• Continuously poor drafting, we missed out on Josh Kelly for Tyson & Salem( salem is good nut no Kelly, Tyson can't get a game at Nth) Wines for Toumpas who got delisted. I know all clubs get this but FFS we always do!
• Drafted 2 key Backs Lever with another knee & May who come in unfit, we are paying big $$ for key backs how many other clubs have done that
• We lose a gun Hogan & expected Macca & Weids to fillthe void?????
• Leadership/culture  questionable as can't be seen e.g. Selwood/Danger always shine, Cotchin very strong, Jones/viney??
• Goodwin struggled by his own admission in dealing with the disastrous 2019, questionable game plan, getting smashed on the outside.
• Who will they draft now for outside run/speed & another fwd
• Will the mess up pick 2? history suggest so

Hogan was injured for a large part of the 2018 season and others did “fill the void” very well. He’s also constantly out with injury at the purple club.

[ArtificialWisdom 3,844]

Forgive me if someone else made this point I only skim read the thread. But I don't so much get much hope from Richmond winning but I do get allot from West Coast, Geelong and Collingwood all losing. Everyone knows it's a copy cat league and after the Eagles won everyone went to controlled footy. A disaster for our scrappy contested ball list.

But the Tigers and Giants bucked the trend, particularly later in the year and were moving the ball much quicker, being brave. Richmond's 10 game run has coincided with them reintroducing real chaos footy. If everyone follows suit then that will be good for us. 

Yes they have much better defence's that handle the turnover better than us and our scoring has been embarrassing. Real success in 2020 would require a huge (probably too huge) improvement from us. But ball in dispute, fast, contested footy is where we shine. And these 2 grand finalists both love it.  

[Fork 'em 6,507]

21 minutes ago, ArtificialWisdom said:

 Yes they have much better defence's that handle the turnover better than us and our scoring has been embarrassing. Real success in 2020 would require a huge (probably too huge) improvement from us. But ball in dispute, fast, contested footy is where we shine. And these 2 grand finalists both love it.  

Both grand finalists can also hit targets when they gain possession.
Something else that also has been embarrassing for us all over the ground.
Contested ball or not we've got a long way to go.

Edited September 23, 2019 by Fork 'em

[ArtificialWisdom 3,844]

3 minutes ago, Fork 'em said:

Both grand finalists can also hit targets when they gain possession.
Something else that also has been embarrassing for us all over the ground.
Contested ball or not we've got a long way to go.

I've always had a theory that winning comes before good footy. Richmond's list in particular  has a few exceptions (Dusty, Edwards, Reiwoldt to name a few) but for the most part their disposal level is nothing particularly special. But they work hard with ball in hand to make the average look brilliant.

Their ball use looked much like ours for the first 2 and a half qtrs of that prelim. But once they got the momentum suddenly their scrappy ball movement looked slick. Even when they missed targets, they worked harder, got there first and won the ball anyway. 

[bluey 882]

Richmond have members, and a decent song.

[jumbo returns 6,484]

30 minutes ago, bluey said:

Richmond have members, and a decent song.

Members, but the 2nd best song in the league

One thing that posters forget is that they had decades of success, that lends itself to supporter succession

My kids were the only ones at Auskick with a Dees' jumper....also, footy days at school

[old55 21,216]

On 9/21/2019 at 10:10 PM, A F said:

We've tried to build from the contest out before and we often get killed on the outside. Interestingly, finals are never played with that same outside space and contested ball winning usually wins finals.

 

Contested possessions this finals series:

WC 138 d Ess 116
Coll 136 d Geel 157
GWS 167 d Dogs 125
Rich 144 d Bris 157

Geel 151 d WC 128
GWS 131 d Bris 155

Rich 125 d Geel 145
GWS 164 d Coll 148

Average across all finals so far = 143

Average contested possessions for the year:

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_team_rankings?advv=Y

Range Port 155.6 - WC 135.8

Contrary to popular belief, including mine, it doesn't look like contested possessions go up in finals or that the team that wins the contest wins the final.

[one_demon 826]

Sorry but winning a premiership is just too difficult for our club.  We just have to accept that it won't happen. 

[jumbo returns 6,484]

42 minutes ago, one_demon said:

Sorry but winning a premiership is just too difficult for our club.  We just have to accept that it won't happen. 

Yep, I'm starting to believe this more and more.....

[bluey 882]

I believe we are toasted as well, no coincidence in losing our respected CEO and hard [censored] coach and then dropping back to our comfortable couch at the bottom of the table. 

Too cute by half, talking too the little birdie we will hand in pick two for picks 16 an 18 or thereabouts and select two more duds.

They will also give away Frosty and sign up a couple of battlers like ANB and, Sparky, too long term contracts, Its what they do!

And yes at least attempt to move on, get rid of the funeral dirge about some emblem and an old flag that was probably shredded in a Sou Easter 50 years ago.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[58er 5,591]

2 hours ago, bluey said:

Richmond have members, and a decent song.

Nothing to guarantee 

 

28 minutes ago, jumbo returns said:

Yep, I'm starting to believe this more and more.....

Members and songs don't win flags

Culture Loyalty and Perserveerance does And if supporters have that as well as the players it's surprising what can happen.

.Just ask Doggies Giants 

[Diamond_Jim 11,676]

2 hours ago, bluey said:

And yes at least attempt to move on, get rid of the funeral dirge about some emblem and an old flag that was probably shredded in a Sou Easter 50 years ago.

actually getting rid of the song would be a good move. It's a jingoistic American ditty about the stars and stripes written for a play called George Washington junior and made famous by George Cagney in Yankee Doodle Dandy.

Almost cringeworthy when you think about it.

Mind you most of the former VFL clubs suffer form the same problem but ours is particularly bad.

[Demonstone 19,050]

Heresy Diamond Jim!   Hang your head in shame.

The only problem with our magnificent song is that we don't hear it anywhere near often enough at the end of games.

[jumbo returns 6,484]

3 hours ago, 58er said:

Nothing to guarantee 

 

Members and songs don't win flags

Culture Loyalty and Perserveerance does And if supporters have that as well as the players it's surprising what can happen.

.Just ask Doggies Giants 

You need success to gain a generation after generation of loyal supporters

[Diamond_Jim 11,676]

44 minutes ago, demonstone said:

Heresy Diamond Jim!   Hang your head in shame.

maybe but you have to admit I have a point.

We weren't even as good as Fitzroy with the Marseillaise (sacre bleu) who at least changed a lot of the words.

You're a grand old flag
You're a high-flying flag
And forever in peace may you wave
You're the emblem of
The land I love
The home of the free and the brave
Ev'ry heart beats true
Under red, white and blue
Where there's never a boast or brag
But should old acquaintance be forgot
Keep your…