B&F Subjectivity

[TGR 1,367]

On one hand, you have pub talk (who else but Yobbo) and PhD speak (Dermie try-hard) and Evangelical talk (who else but Monsignor Whately) where the consensus reached is that B&Fs are the real indication because only the inside know about covert roles etc...

On the other hand, they are absolutely corrupt and manipulated by other biases.  Player contracts that have an incentive clause in relation to B&F position for instance.  The other one is trying to flick off a player.  Now that we know the club think that Frost played 2019 out-of-his-skin, and Clarko will be fooled by this, it will be interesting to see where "supreme effort" and courage (with and without ball in hand) gets him in this year's B&F.  He is top 5 this year without one shadow of a doubt.  Something tells me, Goody and co. will make sure that he finishes in the teens.

As Keating once said, "in the race of life, always back self-interest".

 

pTGR

Edited September 13, 2019 by TGR
Spelling

[daisycutter 28,484]

another graduate from the university of the bleeding obvious

[DeeZone 7,701]

I find it hard to believe that the coaching group would discard their weekly votes on our best players to sanction a player, surely the higher a player ends up would guarantee you a better trade value?????????????

[Lucifers Hero 36,991]

The system advantages players that have played every game as the final count is the sum of votes from each game with no prorata for # of games played.

For mine Frost is not top 5 and probably not top 10.  Those ahead of him would be (in no particular order) Petracca, Harmes, Oliver, Gawn, Salem, Viney, Fritsch, even Hore perhaps... 

Many things go into the votes that we as fans can't see eg playing to the game plan, 'team first'/unselfish play, attitude, decision making under pressure, following team rules etc.  I have no idea how Frost scores on any of these.  But if he isn't in the top 10, I don't think it means there is 'a fix'. 

And I very much doubt BnF position influences trade decisions.  After all, Hawks traded out Mitchell and Lewis the year they came 1st and 2nd in their BnF.

Freo traded out their BnF winner last year...

Edited September 13, 2019 by Lucifer's Hero

[TGR 1,367]

Not saying B&F influences trade decisions.  Just implying that clubs experience more difficulty trading a Howe or Kent or Frost or Watts or Dunn if they finish high in the B&F.

 

 

[TGR 1,367]

30 minutes ago, daisycutter said:

another graduate from the university of the bleeding obvious

That’s where you Simpletons get your qualifications.

You take literature from the UBO away, we are only left with 5% of thought provocation and 3% of incoherent dribble.

[Lord Nev 13,511]

The Bluey is happening before the trade period. Why would the club seemingly decrease his trade value by pushing him down the order of value to us?

 

[Ethan Tremblay 28,358]

What is going on here?

Edited September 13, 2019 by Ethan Tremblay

[TGR 1,367]

1 hour ago, Lord Nev said:

The Bluey is happening before the trade period. Why would the club seemingly decrease his trade value by pushing him down the order of value to us?

 

Read the thread.  It’s nit about value.  It’s about marketing and supporter relations.

[Lord Nev 13,511]

2 minutes ago, TGR said:

Read the thread.  It’s nit about value.  It’s about marketing and supporter relations.

 

2 hours ago, TGR said:

 Player contracts that have an incentive clause in relation to B&F position for instance.  The other one is trying to flick off a player.

 

[deanox 8,564]

The BnF will reflect how well the coaching group think a player has played his role and followed the game plan.  Sure brilliance will get votes, but they won't give full votes to players who ignore team plan/rules no matter what the outcome. 

I expect Frost will poll a bit lower than many supporters will expect. Yes he is exciting, he breaks lines, he attacks, and he had great highlights in a solid year. But his no.1 role is being part of a defensive 6, and I think when it comes to Frost, that often comes second. Leaving his man at the wrong time, spoiling team mates, poor positioning during the i50, means that at times he struggled as a defender.  Many of his highlights came after he had messed up. Many highlights end in him messing up (e.g. running too far snuffed confusing the timing of our forwards).

I'm not saying I want him gone, but I understand why he may be tradable.

[TGR 1,367]

On 9/13/2019 at 3:32 PM, Lord Nev said:

 

 

I hope you are not a prosecution barrister.  That serviette you're holding aint the Shroud of Turin.

Let me be clear.  When clubs contentiously get rid of a player it is in the club's best interest to 'lower' them on the B&F list.

 

This has nothing at all to do with the fruitless task "tricking" other clubs.  This is about marketing and massaging a message to members to minimise any potential fallout.

[Fork 'em 6,507]

Considering Nathan Jones got 4th last year I feel the "Blueys" abit of a joke.

 

[Swooper1987 2,745]

1 minute ago, Fork 'em said:

Considering Nathan Jones got 4th last year I feel the "Blueys" abit of a joke.

 

I was staggered in 2016 when Gawn finished 3rd after a dominant AA year. Somehow Viney won the award that year.  Rob Flower won our B&F once and we were absolutely horrible for pretty much all of his career. I'd not be in the least surprised to see some "strange" results this year as well.

[Lord Nev 13,511]

1 hour ago, TGR said:

I hope you are not a prosecution barrister.  That serviette you're holding aint the Shroud of Turin.

Let me be clear.  When clubs contentiously get rid of a player it is in the club's best interest to 'lower' them on the B&F list.

This has nothing at all to do with the fruitless task "tricking" other clubs.  This is about marketing and massaging a message to members to minimise any potential fallout.

So, can you then explain the following:

Beams finishing 2nd in the Lions BnF before being traded to Collingwood.

Neale Freo BnF winner before being traded.

Ablett won the Suns BnF then traded.

That's just a few off the top of my head, but already it seems the evidence doesn't support your assertion.

Case closed.

Edited September 15, 2019 by Lord Nev

[Binmans PA 25,978]

1 hour ago, TGR said:

I hope you are not a prosecution barrister.  That serviette you're holding aint the Shroud of Turin.

Let me be clear.  When clubs contentiously get rid of a player it is in the club's best interest to 'lower' them on the B&F list.

 

This has nothing at all to do with the fruitless task "tricking" other clubs.  This is about marketing and massaging a message to members to minimise any potential fallout.

You're wrong. Have a lie down.

[deanox 8,564]

We've got two options here:

1) the entire AFL industry is manipulating best and fairest results for the purposes of marketing and supporter management, at the potential detriment of performance bonus payments to players, and not a single person involved in the industry has ever hinted at blowing the whistle. 

Or

2) Coaches that cast votes are a) more knowledgeable of the player role and KPI than the average player and b) influenced by conscious/unconscious bias RE player performance, which also is the basis for making decisions on list management and players futures; so it isn't a surprise to see correlations or patterns in vote results and player movements. 

 

I'm going to go with option 2 on this occasion.

Edited September 16, 2019 by deanox

[TGR 1,367]

21 hours ago, deanox said:

We've got two options here:

1) the entire AFL industry is manipulating best and fairest results for the purposes of marketing and supporter management, at the potential detriment of performance bonus payments to players, and not a single person involved in the industry has ever hinted at blowing the whistle. 

Or

2) Coaches that cast votes are a) more knowledgeable of the player role and KPI than the average player and b) influenced by conscious/unconscious bias RE player performance, which also is the basis for making decisions on list management and players futures; so it isn't a surprise to see correlations or patterns in vote results and player movements. 

 

I'm going to go with option 2 on this occasion.

Someone has blown the whistle.  Refer to Western Bulldogs saga 1-2 decades ago.

 

Option 2?

This is a coach that refused to review the 2018 prelim.  This is a coach that said 'top 4 no longer matters'.  This is a coach that has gone short-term with many decisions (Lever for 2 first rounders in a super draft, Jordie Lewis game-time, passing on the King twin and the list goes on).  This is a coach that played Lewis and Jones on the wings at the G in a big game.

 

His short-termism and decision making quality will only worsen as he coaches for his life in 2020.

[deanox 8,564]

23 hours ago, TGR said:

Someone has blown the whistle.  Refer to Western Bulldogs saga 1-2 decades ago.

 

Option 2?

This is a coach that refused to review the 2018 prelim.  This is a coach that said 'top 4 no longer matters'.  This is a coach that has gone short-term with many decisions (Lever for 2 first rounders in a super draft, Jordie Lewis game-time, passing on the King twin and the list goes on).  This is a coach that played Lewis and Jones on the wings at the G in a big game.

 

His short-termism and decision making quality will only worsen as he coaches for his life in 2020.

So 2 decades ago one person blew the whistle? Given how performance based AFL contracts are, manipulating such results for the sake of marketing opens a very large can of worms.

Secondly, from your cherry picking attack on Goodwin, it's clear you're either result led by sensationalist media or deliberately missrepresenting the situation to suit your line of arguement.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/grand-final-was-the-real-lesson-for-the-demons-goodwin-20190307-p512hl.html

"The Demons coach did not spend long dwelling on the preliminary final blowout..." (not "did not review")

"The Demons did not do a regular play-by-play review of the game with their players because it was futile when they had played so far outside the way they know they should play, and outside the way they had been playing." (This doesn't imply the coaches didn't review it, and it didn't imply they still didn't review the overall game with the players, they just didn't hammer ever little mistake at the end of a long season)

" “I tried to parcel our finals up into three. We had two really great experiences and one poor one. I certainly didn’t dwell too much on the way we played because it was nothing like the way the Melbourne team plays. But you do reflect on the things in our program we keep addressing and learning from,” he said." (Again, this implies they reviewed and took learnings from the game, they just didn't hammer the players about little [censored] on an overall horrible day)

 

If you want to maintain your position of conspiracy theories you at least need to substantiate it. The onus of proof is on you. 

 

Edit: for clarity, you're the one who tried to use your opinion of Goodwin to leverage the conspiracy theory of manipulating bnf results. My post talked about coaches and coaching groups in general, and applies across the board to all clubs. Just because you don't like Goodwin, doesn't mean all coaching groups manipulate bnf results. 

Edited September 17, 2019 by deanox

[Deestar9 1,402]

On 9/13/2019 at 12:52 PM, TGR said:

On one hand, you have pub talk (who else but Yobbo) and PhD speak (Dermie try-hard) and Evangelical talk (who else but Monsignor Whately) where the consensus reached is that B&Fs are the real indication because only the inside know about covert roles etc...

On the other hand, they are absolutely corrupt and manipulated by other biases.  Player contracts that have an incentive clause in relation to B&F position for instance.  The other one is trying to flick off a player.  Now that we know the club think that Frost played 2019 out-of-his-skin, and Clarko will be fooled by this, it will be interesting to see where "supreme effort" and courage (with and without ball in hand) gets him in this year's B&F.  He is top 5 this year without one shadow of a doubt.  Something tells me, Goody and co. will make sure that he finishes in the teens.

As Keating once said, "in the race of life, always back self-interest".

 

pTGR

If you honestly believe that ...you are stating that the club you support is both dishonest & morally corrupt...god help us if we don’t have a good 2020...I can’t even begin to think of the the vitriol that will be posted ?

[TGR 1,367]

6 hours ago, deanox said:

 

Edit: for clarity, you're the one who tried to use your opinion of Goodwin to leverage the conspiracy theory of manipulating bnf results. My post talked about coaches and coaching groups in general, and applies across the board to all clubs. Just because you don't like Goodwin, doesn't mean all coaching groups manipulate bnf results. 

You guys live in la-la land.

Do you really think that Goodwin, who wanted twiggy Lever for the price of $850 k per year, and 2 draft picks in a super-draft, is going to judge him any way but easy in relation to B&F voting?  Conversely, do you think Goody, who is trying to off-load Frost, is going to go judge him any way but harshly?

Votes per game, I will bet all my good stuff that Goody will give it to Lever.

 

Yet you have a real objective bonefide expert in Rooey, who stated the bleeding obvious.  Frost was our best defender in 2019 bar none.  Frost had 'supreme effort' and he would prefer to play on Lever and May.

 

Human nature.  Roosy wouldn't have Howe in Collingwood's leadership group at the moment....or indeed Dunn.

 

B&F's are absolutely subject to bias, and are more corrupt in my opinion, that objectively true.  Wonder if Frosty makes the top 20 in the B&F?

 

But you guys can clap the top 10, and convince yourself they are worthy.

 

 

 

[deanox 8,564]

On 9/16/2019 at 11:16 AM, deanox said:

...

2) Coaches that cast votes are ... influenced by conscious/unconscious bias RE player performance, which also is the basis for making decisions on list management and players futures; so it isn't a surprise to see correlations or patterns in vote results and player movements. 

...

 

1 hour ago, TGR said:

.. 

Do you really think that Goodwin, who wanted twiggy Lever for the price of $850 k per year, and 2 draft picks in a super-draft, is going to judge him any way but easy in relation to B&F voting?  Conversely, do you think Goody, who is trying to off-load Frost, is going to go judge him any way but harshly?

Votes per game, I will bet all my good stuff that Goody will give it to Lever.

...

B&F's are absolutely subject to bias, and are more corrupt in my opinion, that objectively true.  Wonder if Frosty makes the top 20 in the B&F?

...

Ah, so you do agree with Option 2 then?

Edited September 18, 2019 by deanox

[Fritta and Turner 3,650]

On 9/15/2019 at 4:45 PM, Swooper1987 said:

I was staggered in 2016 when Gawn finished 3rd after a dominant AA year. Somehow Viney won the award that year.  Rob Flower won our B&F once and we were absolutely horrible for pretty much all of his career. I'd not be in the least surprised to see some "strange" results this year as well.

In Robbies day the club had a policy of sharing the B&F around....

[Swooper1987 2,745]

4 hours ago, Jontee said:

In Robbies day the club had a policy of sharing the B&F around....

I doubt that.  Laurie Fowler was a multiple winner.

[daisycutter 28,484]

On 9/18/2019 at 2:56 PM, TGR said:

>>>

Yet you have a real objective bonefide expert in Rooey, who stated the bleeding obvious.  Frost was our best defender in 2019 bar none.  Frost had 'supreme effort' and he would prefer to play on Lever and May.

 

well he was the only one who played all 22 games, so not surprising