Farewell Sam Frost

[whatwhat say what 18,764]

Elliott easily

[Wells 11 4,649]

Elliot easily on talent alone and a really dangerous player creating a new avenue to goals. But Frost as more likely to play every week . A big physical precense, improving, hyper speed, short or tall option. 

Elliot is an exciting talent and a great get if he stayed on the park . but I can see Him  missing as much as he plays. I can’t help but think the only reason he would leave a team like the pies , a big club , smack bang in the premiership window, is if he was worried about his health and trying to make money while he could in this game. I’m presuming Burgess would be involved and if we get him this would be one of his first big calls. 

For mine, IF it is indeed a choice I’d stay with frost...the devil we know. 

[Red and Blue realist 2,026]

20 hours ago, AshleyH30 said:

My gut feel with this is; If we sign Elliot, Frost will go. If we don't sign Elliot, Frost will stay. There's no guarantees in life. But, I ask you; who would you rather?

Unfortunately, the question's not easy because you have to take into account the various injuries we've had this year, as well as Elliot's previous injuries. But if it was based on talent and potential impact in the side, I would pick Elliot in a heartbeat.

One has the potential to win matches while the other can lose them. And that's not just because one's a forward and the other a defender. 

[Roger Mellie 3,482]

Elliot thanks. It would be fine to keep Frost but Elliot would damage the opposition if fit. Frost could damage us and/or the opposition.

[Cam Schwab's Whiteboard 209]

[Laughing Goat 308]

Frost is a player we need. We don't have line breaking players like Frosty with great closing speed. If Frosty goes, then I would like to know where our pace in the back half is going to come from.

We are all dreaming if you think Elliott is going to come to the Dees.....its laughable actually! Why would he? Even if if did come to the dees, we don't have the game plan, skill & intelligence to utilise his ability. (& we cant afford him)

Elliott would be a good inclusion but we need Frosty.

 

[Mach5 4,482]

3 minutes ago, Laughing Goat said:

Frost is a player we need. We don't have line breaking players like Frosty with great closing speed. If Frosty goes, then I would like to know where our pace in the back half is going to come from.

We are all dreaming if you think Elliott is going to come to the Dees.....its laughable actually! Why would he? Even if if did come to the dees, we don't have the game plan, skill & intelligence to utilise his ability. (& we cant afford him)

Elliott would be a good inclusion but we need Frosty.

 

 

Mate, Frost’s line breaking ability is to the detriment of our performance. The guy is a walking turnover.

[Laughing Goat 308]

32 minutes ago, Mach5 said:

 

Mate, Frost’s line breaking ability is to the detriment of our performance. The guy is a walking turnover.

I agree....mate

But you need to come up with something better than that.....Frost has an average of 2.7 turnovers per game & the following players have a higher average for the 2019 season......

Hibberd 5, Brayshaw 5, Oliver 4.7, Lever 4.1, Salem, Jones & Viney 4 

Scarey I know but my question still stands......who replaces Frosty with his obvious pace & lock down ability? He provides spark, excitement & quick ball movement, something that all of the above players struggle with.

[Wiseblood 24,636]

44 minutes ago, Laughing Goat said:

I agree....mate

But you need to come up with something better than that.....Frost has an average of 2.7 turnovers per game & the following players have a higher average for the 2019 season......

Hibberd 5, Brayshaw 5, Oliver 4.7, Lever 4.1, Salem, Jones & Viney 4 

Scarey I know but my question still stands......who replaces Frosty with his obvious pace & lock down ability? He provides spark, excitement & quick ball movement, something that all of the above players struggle with.

Apart from Hibberd, all of the above are midfielders (Salem does play up the ground a bit).  Of course their turnover numbers, through kicking the ball quickly out of packs and so forth, will be higher.  That's just the nature of the beast.  A quick handpass that misses the target can be a turnover, even if they don't do much with it.

The problem Frosty has is that he will win the ball, use his pace... and then turn it over.  The bloke is out of position and the ball goes back over his head.  If he hit more targets than he missed then he would be one of the better backs in the competition.  

The numbers, however, suggest he is too turnover prone for his own good.  You just can't have that for someone who plays in defence and doesn't see a whole lot of the ball.

I'm in the 'not sure' camp as to how I feel about Frost leaving, but comparing his turnover numbers to mainly midfielders doesn't do a whole lot for your argument.

[Slartibartfast 15,724]

Frost is a good player, that's why Hawthorn, and I suspect others, are looking at him.  We have good coverage for KPD (assuming they can overcome their fitness issues) and we are in need of repair in other areas of the ground.

Trade what you have a surplus in and fill the holes.  It won't be a bad trade until we know what we get back and how that return performs.

But it's quite logical to look at trading Frost for something we need.

Edited September 14, 2019 by Baghdad Bob

[bobby1554 1,132]

52 minutes ago, Laughing Goat said:

I agree....mate

But you need to come up with something better than that.....Frost has an average of 2.7 turnovers per game & the following players have a higher average for the 2019 season......

Hibberd 5, Brayshaw 5, Oliver 4.7, Lever 4.1, Salem, Jones & Viney 4 

Scarey I know but my question still stands......who replaces Frosty with his obvious pace & lock down ability? He provides spark, excitement & quick ball movement, something that all of the above players struggle with.

Joel Smith

 

[Binmans PA 25,890]

On 9/12/2019 at 12:42 PM, Red and Blue realist said:

I suspect this might have something to do with us not giving Frost a contract yet. In the last game May played (Collingwood), he constantly looked like he was covering for Frost, and then Frost tunneled him in one of the contests. I wonder, and have said this previously, if May and Lever don't have full trust in Frost.

In 2018 we largely played a zone defense, and guys like May, Lever, Jetta and Hibberd play best in a zone structure. Whereas Frost needs a direct opponent, otherwise he gets too lost. We had to change the way our defense played this year in particular early in the year, but if the game plan is to go back to more of a zone going forward, well the question would be does Frost suit that?  

Good post. I reckon we've tried to make the best out of an ordinary situation with Frost. We traded him in at a time when we would have preferred not to pay as much for a player of his lack of quality, but given our list at the time, we had to overpay. 

Since he's been on the list, we've developed him as best as we could and tried him everywhere, until we realised it was back or bust.

The problem with Frost for the last 3-4 years is that it's been clear that the MFC has wanted to play a zone defence, hence the acquisitions of Lever and May. They trialled Omac and Frost in the role May was supposed to play, to very mixed results. They even trialled Dunn in that zone at the back end of 2016. None were sufficient, hence we went after Lever and May.

At the back end of 2018, Frost's pace enabled him to cover a player like Hawkins, but ultimately, we went after May because we'd prefer to play May, Lever and a third tall defender. That third tall role has fallen to an undersized and I suspect, slowing down, Michael Hibberd. This is why I'd be happy to keep Frost as depth for that third tall position until a better replacement comes along. Frost is also able to play small, which is handy. I just wouldn't pay the world to make him stay.

Furthermore, anyone banging on about Lever not being a KPP, simply doesn't understand how modern footy works. Lever was a gun in Adelaide's incredibly strong zone defence in 2017, with Talia as the lock-down player (May in our current set up) and Hartigan as the third defender. The difference between that Adelaide set up and ours now is that Talia, Lever and Hartigan were all solid kickers. This may have been why we were going after Keath, to play as a more reliable third defender role in a zone system lead by May and Lever. Hibberd doesn't have the size of Keath and therefore could be isolated against a third tall. Keath is closer to the Hartigan type (although taller). It would also release Hibberd to play a kicking / rebounding defender role, which is what saw him earn AA honours in 2017.

We all know Frost's pace can work well in the high press system, because he can provide cover for us out back. Where Frost falls down in the zone system though, is when our team isn't pressing high or the opposition team is controlling play. He gets lost in these situations with his lack of footy IQ.

I think it's relatively clear we've wanted to play the following set up for a while now:

Jetta (lock down on a small) -- May -- third tall defender (Frost at the moment)

Hibberd -- Lever -- a kicker / set up player / quarterback (Salem at the moment - Laird at Adelaide)

Given who we seem to be targeting, we'd prefer to get a more reliable defender in to that third tall role (hence Hore) and keep Salem and Hibberd as quarterbacks.

Frost should be depth, but could be very handy depth if we are hit by injuries again. My concern is that one player shouldn't make us play in a different way. As Clarkson, Simpson, Buckley and even Lyon have shown in recent years, system should win out and direct the way a team plays, rather than a single player.

Edited September 14, 2019 by A F

[Mach5 4,482]

1 hour ago, Laughing Goat said:

I agree....mate

But you need to come up with something better than that.....Frost has an average of 2.7 turnovers per game & the following players have a higher average for the 2019 season......

Hibberd 5, Brayshaw 5, Oliver 4.7, Lever 4.1, Salem, Jones & Viney 4 

Scarey I know but my question still stands......who replaces Frosty with his obvious pace & lock down ability? He provides spark, excitement & quick ball movement, something that all of the above players struggle with.

 

No one on our list commits turnovers with as much instant hurt factor as Frost. If only they kept stats that measure how avoidable a turnover was, and how much it catches all your teammates out of position.

Must trade.

[Wiseblood 24,636]

20 minutes ago, A F said:

At the back end of 2018, Frost's pace enabled him to cover a player like Hawkins, but ultimately, we went after May because we'd prefer to play May, Lever and a third tall defender. That third tall role has fallen to an undersized and I suspect, slowing down, Michael Hibberd. This is why I'd be happy to keep Frost as depth for that third tall position until a better replacement comes along. Frost is also about to play small, which is handy. I just wouldn't pay the world for him.

Good post, AF.

What do you think of someone like Petty stepping into that third tall role down back?  I know we played him forward in the second half of the season but I still see him as a potential long term option down back.

[DeeSpencer 23,057]

10 minutes ago, A F said:

 

Furthermore, anyone banging on about Lever not being a KPP, simply doesn't understand how modern footy works. Lever was a gun in Adelaide's incredibly strong zone defence in 2017, with Talia as the lock-down player (May in our current set up) and Hartigan as the third defender. The difference between that Adelaide set up and ours now is that Talia, Lever and Hartigan were all solid kickers. This may have been why we were going after Keath, to play as a more reliable third defender role in a zone system lead by May and Lever. Hibberd doesn't have the size of Keath and therefore could be isolated against a third tall. Keath is closer to the Hartigan type (although taller). It would also release Hibberd to play a kicking / rebounding defender role, which is what saw him earn AA honours in 2017.

 

Talia and Hartigan took the dangerous marking forwards - usually talls, although sometimes Hartigan would move to a medium marking type player and Lever would take a dud tall and dictate position. Jake Kelly was also there to take a mid sized player - he's the most similar to Hibberd at this stage of his career (and Luke Brown played on the smalls). 

The reality is Lever is most like Nick Haynes, Tom Stewart and Jeremy Howe and not like a proper key defender who intercepts like McGovern. At this stage Lever's not even as good as Haynes and Howe one on one but hopefully he gets to that level with a preseason. It's a vital position if done well.

We'll always need another taller player to go with May to free Lever up to play his best footy. Hore doesn't have the speed, strength or height, he might be good enough to still get a game but he's not ideal. If Frost goes I think we'll see a competition between Oscar and Petty which doesn't inspire a lot confidence not but might not be too bad (especially if Petty wins). I'd also be moving Joel Smith back (assuming he's still on the list), he's undersized but at least has the athleticism, even if he's not the answer to replace Frost he's a chance to replace Hibberd or Jetta.

[Binmans PA 25,890]

39 minutes ago, Wiseblood said:

Good post, AF.

What do you think of someone like Petty stepping into that third tall role down back?  I know we played him forward in the second half of the season but I still see him as a potential long term option down back.

I'm on record as loving Petty. He's a Lever clone. He's an excellent reader of the play, a strong mark, a solid kick and isn't afraid to put his body on the line.

I think they may keep him forward next year, unless we solve our KPF problems this off season. But I can see them moving him back in 2021. 

[Binmans PA 25,890]

42 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

Talia and Hartigan took the dangerous marking forwards - usually talls, although sometimes Hartigan would move to a medium marking type player and Lever would take a dud tall and dictate position. Jake Kelly was also there to take a mid sized player - he's the most similar to Hibberd at this stage of his career (and Luke Brown played on the smalls). 

The reality is Lever is most like Nick Haynes, Tom Stewart and Jeremy Howe and not like a proper key defender who intercepts like McGovern. At this stage Lever's not even as good as Haynes and Howe one on one but hopefully he gets to that level with a preseason. It's a vital position if done well.

We'll always need another taller player to go with May to free Lever up to play his best footy. Hore doesn't have the speed, strength or height, he might be good enough to still get a game but he's not ideal. If Frost goes I think we'll see a competition between Oscar and Petty which doesn't inspire a lot confidence not but might not be too bad (especially if Petty wins). I'd also be moving Joel Smith back (assuming he's still on the list), he's undersized but at least has the athleticism, even if he's not the answer to replace Frost he's a chance to replace Hibberd or Jetta.

You're probably right RE: the third tall. I had that slightly wrong in the Adelaide system. Lever plays third tall, but I think you underestimate just how good Lever is. He was an out and out star in the second half of Adelaide's 2017 push for the Grand Final. He absolutely bossed games. I'd say only Stewart and at times (although not as consistently) Howe could/can match what Lever did in 2017 as a very young man.

I agree with you on Hore and I don't rate him terribly highly. He, like Frost, is a turn over merchant, but he understands his position more and is a good reader of the play as a defender.

I wouldn't move Joel Smith back, because he too is a turnover merchant and has possibly worse skills than Frost. But I've never rated the Smith experiment, so I'm probably biased there.

[DeeSpencer 23,057]

6 minutes ago, Wiseblood said:

Good post, AF.

What do you think of someone like Petty stepping into that third tall role down back?  I know we played him forward in the second half of the season but I still see him as a potential long term option down back.

I really like Petty but the gap between his good games and ordinary games at VFL and good efforts and ordinary efforts at AFL down back is a little scary. When he's on it's good, when he's forced under the ball or misreads it he gets beaten badly and lacks the pace to fix it. 

If Frost goes I'd have him in line for the CHB role but if he's messing up (as above) I'd like to see more of him forward, the lack of speed and dynamic skills isn't ideal there but he jumped at the ball way better than I expected, held a few marks and kicked straight and that's half the battle these days. 

I'd genuinely consider an outside the box solution next year and swap Weideman and Petty between CHB and CHF as required. It might end in disaster (and I wouldn't be chopping and changing every game) but I just think the best possible development for both of those guys would be getting time at either end. I reckon the Weid would hold so many more marks after some time down back.

[John Crow Batty 8,221]

So Frost is a turnover merchant. Sadly we have a conga line of the same led by our hopeless captains. At least he has some upsides that can be worked on. Turnovers are a team disease caused by lack of confidence and inane leadership.

Edited September 14, 2019 by america de cali

[DeeSpencer 23,057]

1 minute ago, A F said:

You're probably right RE: the third tall. I had that slightly wrong in the Adelaide system. Lever plays third tall, but I think you underestimate just how good Lever is. He was an out and out star in the second half of Adelaide's 2017 push for the Grand Final. He absolutely bossed games. I'd say only Stewart and at times (although not as consistently) Howe could/can match what Lever did in 2017 as a very young man.

I agree with you on Hore and I don't rate him terribly highly. He, like Frost, is a turn over merchant, but he understands his position more and is a good reader of the play as a defender.

I wouldn't move Joel Smith back, because he too is a turnover merchant and has possibly worse skills than Frost. But I've never rated the Smith experiment, so I'm probably biased there.

I still think the sky is the limit for Lever but it has to be in the right role. Haynes - an AA squad member this year - is about what I expect next year. Get back to intercepting and at least break even in more contests. Plus better ball use, those guys I name all use it very well (apart from the occasional Howie special).

If we got our midfield and forward pressure spot on we could get Hore in the side alongside Lever but then we'd be a bit top heavy like the Cats which worries me because I still think the Tigers model is where footy is going. Speed.

I think we can carry one bad skills guy in the backline as long as they have good decision making. Smith can potentially have a higher decision making ceiling than Frosty, the basketball background can help with that. I'm not expecting anything from Smith anymore, he's just missed too much crucial development time. But if we commit to Fritsch and bring in reinforcements up forward then I think the depth is more useful down back. Ideally both but at least one of Jetta and Hibberd better play well next year or we are in big trouble, we need replacements waiting for deep small/medium defenders.

[Binmans PA 25,890]

40 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

I still think the sky is the limit for Lever but it has to be in the right role. Haynes - an AA squad member this year - is about what I expect next year. Get back to intercepting and at least break even in more contests. Plus better ball use, those guys I name all use it very well (apart from the occasional Howie special).

To be fair to Lever, he can only boss in the intercept game if we play a solid zone system. He can't play intercept defender if he's playing 1v1. But I agree, Jake's disposal was a bit off this year. Probably endemic of our own failed system and poor ball use across the ground.

40 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

If we got our midfield and forward pressure spot on we could get Hore in the side alongside Lever but then we'd be a bit top heavy like the Cats which worries me because I still think the Tigers model is where footy is going. Speed.

I agree with this too. The forward system is broken at the MFC because it's outdated and directionless. You need speed in your forward half in the modern game and I believe you need the zone in the defensive half. 

My fear with the way that we've been building our list is that we're too slow to address certain glaring weaknesses. Getting ball winners on board is all well and good, but if the rest of your system breaks down, it's almost useless.

We need far more pace and x factor inside forward 50. Elliot is a good idea. We desperately need another zippy small. I hope we're targeting a Richmond small with pace.

It's taken us far too long to address the lack of pace and crumbing ability in our forwardline. We also haven't got our ideal defensive line yet either....

40 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

I think we can carry one bad skills guy in the backline as long as they have good decision making. Smith can potentially have a higher decision making ceiling than Frosty, the basketball background can help with that. I'm not expecting anything from Smith anymore, he's just missed too much crucial development time. But if we commit to Fritsch and bring in reinforcements up forward then I think the depth is more useful down back. Ideally both but at least one of Jetta and Hibberd better play well next year or we are in big trouble, we need replacements waiting for deep small/medium defenders.

... if, as you say, Jetta or Hibberd don't return to form next year, we're in for another ordinary year.
 

I would love to know if we've changed our recruiting strategy and list management direction in the last two years. The holes in our list have been obvious for a while now.

[Moonshadow 16,109]

On 9/13/2019 at 6:18 PM, spirit of norm smith said:

Oscar spotted touring Upper Ferntree Gully facilities. 

I'm not his biggest fan, but the Omac potting is getting tedious.

[wheaters31 562]

I think the lack of movement in tying up Frost is due to the interest in Tomlinson. I actually think we plan on playing Tomlinson as a key back (where he has played his best footy). Then have Petty and Oscar as the back-ups in case we are hit with the injury stick.

[Moonshadow 16,109]

29 minutes ago, wheaters31 said:

I think the lack of movement in tying up Frost is due to the interest in Tomlinson. I actually think we plan on playing Tomlinson as a key back (where he has played his best footy). Then have Petty and Oscar as the back-ups in case we are hit with the injury stick.

I hope Petty plays more forward.

[Binmans PA 25,890]

Hypothetical: if it was Frost for Isaac Smith, would you do the deal? 

IMO, in a heartbeat.