Splitting Draft Pick 3

[Lucifers Hero 36,991]

2 minutes ago, Red and Blue realist said:

The Hawks also have a father son coming through that they'll need picks/points for, he's not expected to get a bid until the 2nd round, so in the same regard that we're talking about GWS offering up their picks so they get their man and another high end pick, I can't see the Hawks giving up pick 10 then only getting Patton and the F/S. They'll want to get Patton, the F/S and retain some other picks too (well most other clubs would, lately the Hawks seem to hate taking young players).

With the possibility of Hawthorn getting picks for traded out players, GWS return picks (for say pick 10) and future pick exchange (GWS and Hawks) it is really hard to foresee what might happen, especially after the first round.   Even harder to consider how their trades with other clubs might pan out.  So, I won't hazard a guess.

Just saying that posters may have misjudged GWS' bargaining position when it comes to splitting pick #2.  They could easily have 3 mid first round picks to play with and multiple clubs to deal with.

[Red and Blue realist 2,026]

1 hour ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

With the possibility of Hawthorn getting picks for traded out players, GWS return picks (for say pick 10) and future pick exchange (GWS and Hawks) it is really hard to foresee what might happen, especially after the first round.   Even harder to consider how their trades with other clubs might pan out.  So, I won't hazard a guess.

Just saying that posters may have misjudged GWS' bargaining position when it comes to splitting pick #2.  They could easily have 3 mid first round picks to play with and multiple clubs to deal with.

Of course it's all speculation, at this stage the only known is we have pick 2 and GWS have picks 11 & 15 and there's been talk of doing a split. We're all guessing whenever we throw up any suggestions, but it's a bit of fun at this time of year. 

[Redleg 37,554]

If we lose 2 to GC, then IMO we are in the box seat to use 3, to push GWS hard,  on any deal we might do with them.

For once Mahoney would have the whip hand and he should make absolutely the best use of it possible.

[Paulo 285]

there seems to be, (in this years draft ) a big big difference between the value of pick 2 compared to the value pick 3, if we keep pick 2 (and i would be [censored] if we don't) we need to know how good anderson and rowell really are, and how bad gws wants either one, when it comes time to negotiations.

 It could also open up talks with gold coast and could turn pick 2 into a very sought after pick, and we SHOULD use that to our advantage

We should never of shown our cards and came out and said we were willing to trade pick 2 and waited for gws and gold coast to come to us

 

[Paulo 285]

imo the gold coast should get a mid first round pp at best, after each club who missed the finals has had their first pick. We are not the only club who would get shafted by the afl, if they get pick 1 and 2, Adelaide who traded picks with carlton, on the afl introduced live trading, last year would be filthy 

[Dees247 140]

Can anyone confirm that we will find out about the PP on Monday night?

[FlashInThePan 1,893]

10 hours ago, Diamond_Jim said:

If you are right that GWS will get a first round pick from the Hawks as well, this from a GWS perspective is in the deal of the decade if not century realm.

Something just doesn't ring true but it could be as simple as you say and that Patton just wants to play good football irrespective of the dollar figure.

 

We are just seeing the second half of the $cully trade. There was always a really big whiff around what the hawks paid for him last season, regardless of his injury status. My guess is that this trade for Patton was always part of it. 

[Paulo 285]

On 8/29/2019 at 8:31 PM, DemonLad5 said:

Getting a pick back that still allows us to get a player like Ash is the ideal scenario. We need GWS to turn one of their picks into a top-10. Either that or include a player to go along with 11 and 13

im with you on this one, we should only do it if we get ash

[Paulo 285]

jakkowiz said:

hey knightmare, (in this draft) if you were splitting pick 2 what two picks would you demand in return for it and like wise for pick 3

As in if I had to trade pick 2, what combination of picks in this draft would be of equivalent value?

For pick 2 I'd be asking for picks 3, 4 and another top 30 choice. I'd then probably flip picks three and four for a combination of other picks include two others inside the first eight and whatever additional value I can get for it. *I'm an Anderson fan and feel he's the best in the pool. Knowing someone would match bids on what would be a bid on Green with pick 3, I see that much separation between Anderson and the field. So it's not a pick I would be giving up for market value, in the same way I wouldn't have given up pick 2 or 3 for market value last year knowing Lukosius and Rankine were going to be there.

For pick 3 this year, I'd happily flip it for any two picks inside the top 8 as I see a real evenness from picks 3-8, and I'd feel like I'd probably with one of if not both of those get my two preferred considerations, or if not then at least that next guy I would have been thinking about with pick 3 anyway.

 

[Males 577]

Only way I would think about splitting the pick is if GC got pick 2 and we missed out on Anderson, then only if we could get Lachie Ash, or Hayden Young, with at least one of those picks.

From what I’ve read, Ash has the speed we lack and Young has the kicking skills we need, both will probably go top 10 though, without other deals done, we’d most probably miss out on either of them if we split for GWS’s picks.

[Lucifers Hero 36,991]

At the start of this thread GWS had picks 11 and 13.  That is now #11 and #17-18 which will be #12 (or 13) and #18-20 after pp, GA comp picks and academy picks.

The slide for us is huge and not only 'draft points'.  The quality of player available at 18 to 20 is very different from one at 13. 

GWS will have to throw in something big to make a deal happen.  If as mooted Patton goes to Hawks for a 1st round pick (Hawks currently have #10) I would be looking for at least that. 

Or GWS need to find some significant picks and A grade players. 

Gws don't voluntarily let go their A graders unless the player demands a trade to a club of his choice. 

Interesting times.  I just hope we don't blink.

Edited September 21, 2019 by Lucifer's Hero

[Mach5 4,482]

42 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

At the start of this thread GWS had picks 11 and 13.  That is now #11 and #17-18 which will be #12 (or 13) and #18-20 after pp, GA comp picks and academy picks.

The slide for us is huge and not only 'draft points'.  The quality of player available at 18 to 20 is very different from one at 13. 

GWS will have to throw in something big to make a deal happen.  If as mooted Patton goes to Hawks for a 1st round pick (Hawks currently have #10) I would be looking for at least that.  Or GWS need to find some significant picks and A grade players. 

While GWS have let go a lot of very good players, only one or two are in that A grade category (Adams and Treloar, neither of whom have performed well in big games). 

Interesting times.  I just hope we don't blink.

 

Doubt Hawks will give up a 1st round pick for Patton.

I’d expect they’ll need to include a player like Caldwell or Bonar to satisfy us.

[dazzledavey36 48,704]

6 minutes ago, Mach5 said:

 

Doubt Hawks will give up a 1st round pick for Patton.

I’d expect they’ll need to include a player like Caldwell or Bonar to satisfy us.

Caldwell for me. Genuine quality player if he can get his body right.

Bonar doesn't excite me at all.

[Lucifers Hero 36,991]

8 minutes ago, Mach5 said:

Doubt Hawks will give up a 1st round pick for Patton.

I’d expect they’ll need to include a player like Caldwell or Bonar to satisfy us.

Agree, Hawks wouldn't give up #10 alone for Patton, but they may package it up with other picks/players with GWS so it would be available for our pick #2 split.  Not so good for us if Hawks do their own pick split of #10 with another club to get Patton.

What if Caldwell or Bonar don't want to leave?   iirc Tyson was no where near our first choice to go with GWS pick #9 for our pick #2, a few years back.  We took him because the players we wanted wouldn't leave or GWS wouldn't let them go. 

We need a better deal this time. 

Edited September 22, 2019 by Lucifer's Hero

[Mach5 4,482]

8 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Agree, Hawks wouldn't give up #10 alone for Patton, but they may package it up with other picks/players with GWS so it would be available for our pick #2 split.  Not so good for us if Hawks do their own pick split of #10 with another club to get Patton.

What if Caldwell or Bonar don't want to leave?   iirc Tyson was no where near our first choice to go with GWS pick #9 for our pick #2, a few years back.  We took him because the players we wanted wouldn't leave or GWS wouldn't let them go. 

We need a better deal this time. 

 

That could be the case, and we’ll just need to make sure we get back something we’re happy with. I’d be totally unsurprised if we laid down the challenge to GWS: you do what you have to do to get us Hawthorns’s pick 10, to go along with pick 12/13, and we have a deal. Otherwise we bid on Green with pick 2/3 and will happily take him if you don’t match.

It’s only my humble opinion, but I really like Xavier O’Hallorand and would “settle” for him too, along with 12/13 & 17/18/19.

[Red and Blue realist 2,026]

9 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Agree, Hawks wouldn't give up #10 alone for Patton, but they may package it up with other picks/players with GWS so it would be available for our pick #2 split.  Not so good for us if Hawks do their own pick split of #10 with another club to get Patton.

What if Caldwell or Bonar don't want to leave?   iirc Tyson was no where near our first choice to go with GWS pick #9 for our pick #2, a few years back.  We took him because the players we wanted wouldn't leave or GWS wouldn't let them go. 

We need a better deal this time. 

It was talked up at the time that we beat multiple clubs to get Tyson. I don't think GWS slipping down the draft order is a bad thing for us, gives us more leverage in who we ask for, and getting Tomlinson will help too, he's got a great reputation with teammates

[Moonshadow 16,157]

On 9/17/2019 at 11:16 PM, Paulo said:

there seems to be, (in this years draft ) a big big difference between the value of pick 2 compared to the value pick 3, if we keep pick 2 (and i would be [censored] if we don't) we need to know how good anderson and rowell really are, and how bad gws wants either one, when it comes time to negotiations.

 It could also open up talks with gold coast and could turn pick 2 into a very sought after pick, and we SHOULD use that to our advantage

We should never of shown our cards and came out and said we were willing to trade pick 2 and waited for gws and gold coast to come to us

 

I have the view that if we end up with pick 2, use it on Anderson (assuming he doesn't go 1). Do not split pick 2. 

If our pick is 3, then perhaps a split is possible. I would still be very hesitant, as Young looks a good prospect at pick 3 and there are a few other draft 'bolters' moving up the list.

Edited September 22, 2019 by Moonshadow

[Males 577]

50 minutes ago, Moonshadow said:

I have the view that if we end up with pick 2, use it on Anderson (assuming he doesn't go 1). Do not split pick 2. 

If our pick is 3, then perhaps a split is possible. I would still be very hesitant, as Young looks a good prospect at pick 3 and there are a few other draft 'bolters' moving up the list.

I read somewhere that GC have stated they’ll pick Rowell at 1, I suppose they could have lied but in this case I can’t see why they would. Rowell had a ripper of an U18 GF too. I agree that Young, or Ash, would suit us and be happy to use pick 3 on either of them. ??

[Paulo 285]

8 hours ago, Moonshadow said:

I have the view that if we end up with pick 2, use it on Anderson (assuming he doesn't go 1). Do not split pick 2. 

If our pick is 3, then perhaps a split is possible. I would still be very hesitant, as Young looks a good prospect at pick 3 and there are a few other draft 'bolters' moving up the list.

i well may be wrong but, imo there are at least 10 players i would rather us take before young.

 

[Lucifers Hero 36,991]

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Edited September 22, 2019 by Lucifer's Hero

[Redleg 37,554]

On 9/17/2019 at 11:32 PM, Dees247 said:

Can anyone confirm that we will find out about the PP on Monday night?

It seems many already know.

[Demon3 2,541]

Can someone explain to me where its been reported than a GWS player will also be involved if we "split the pick"? Genuine question.. is this real or us thinking that's whats going to happen?

[Red and Blue realist 2,026]

4 minutes ago, Demon3 said:

Can someone explain to me where its been reported than a GWS player will also be involved if we "split the pick"? Genuine question.. is this real or us thinking that's whats going to happen?

Mention here that we'd want more than just the giants 2 first round picks - https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-08-29/why-the-giants-are-eyeing-off-the-demons-no2-draft-pick

[AshleyH30 566]

4 minutes ago, Demon3 said:

Can someone explain to me where its been reported than a GWS player will also be involved if we "split the pick"? Genuine question.. is this real or us thinking that's whats going to happen?

It's been reported on AFL.com.au that they want to get a pick before Adelaide's pick so they can get 2 top 10 draft picks in. GWS expect Adelaide to bid on Green, so they are looking at trading for Our pick to get say Young and Green instead of going into a huge deficit and only have 1 pick inside the first 50 picks.

[Demon3 2,541]

6 minutes ago, Red and Blue realist said:

Mention here that we'd want more than just the giants 2 first round picks - https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-08-29/why-the-giants-are-eyeing-off-the-demons-no2-draft-pick

Thanks R&BR, i had missed that. I think splitting the pick will be a mistake now. Its blown out, we need top ten talent, we need top 5 talent, so we should stay with pick 3, especially if our Trade period nets Langdon, Tomlinson and Elliott (unlikey but it must be some chance)