Splitting Draft Pick 3

[Uncle Fester 2,835]

Essendon seem to be interested in Green, and want 5 as part of the Joe deal. Gives us something to play off GWS and Ess against each other

[Whispering_Jack 27,955]

15 minutes ago, drdrake said:

 We walk away from Trade week with Langdon, Bonar, Tomlinson pick 6 and what ever we get for Frost.

 

If we can leave Bonar out of this and get someone of the type we need instead (or a suitable pick) it would be so much better.

[Older demon 2,166]

I think that now that the Saints have split their pick we won't split ours. I agree with others that we go to the draft with pick 3 and pick the best, classiest we can as we need more A graders.
Bid for Green if we want to, remembering you can trade picks live on draft day. No offence to Bonar he is another big bodied mid with 2 knee redo's no thanks.  I also believe that Saints will have to trade away players if they want to get everybody in who they are chasing.

[drdrake 3,037]

3 minutes ago, Whispering_Jack said:

If we can leave Bonar out of this and get someone of the type we need instead (or a suitable pick) it would be so much better.

Agree with what you are saying but we are really getting him for nothing, he would add to our midfield depth I reckon he and Petracca could rotate as Midfield forward.  You still will get a player at 6 with the attributes we are looking for.  Not sure what else GWS would want to give up for a 3 place upgrade

[Dwight Schrute 16,747]

6 minutes ago, Whispering_Jack said:

If we can leave Bonar out of this and get someone of the type we need instead (or a suitable pick) it would be so much better.

Ian Hill wouldn't be too bad, bit of Zip. closer to Brad in Melbourne

[DemonLad5 1,637]

5 minutes ago, Patches O’houlihan said:

Ian Hill wouldn't be too bad, bit of Zip. closer to Brad in Melbourne

Ian Hill just re-signed

We should get involved with 6 but not sure what else they can throw in that would satisfy. Be good if they got another pick inside 15 somehow. 

 

[BigMacjnr 278]

Melbourne in: 5, 9    out: 3, 22

Sydney in: Danniher, 22  out 5 Papley

Essendon in: 3   out: Danniher

Carlton in: Papley  out 9

Note: I don't think Joe is anywhere close to worth pick 3 but seeing early reports that Essendon wanted two good first rounders for Joe...at least the Swans keep a goodish pick to take to the draft. For a player who has played so little football and so injury prone, I think a mid-first round and later pick swaps in their favour should be enough. 

Edited October 10, 2019 by BigMacjnr

[Demon Forever 219]

2 minutes ago, BigMacjnr said:

Melbourne in: 5, 9    out: 3, 22

Sydney in: Danniher, 22  out 5 Papley

Essendon in: 3   out: Danniher

Carlton in: Papley  out 9

that would work

[Watts the matter 1,235]

4 minutes ago, BigMacjnr said:

Melbourne in: 5, 9    out: 3, 22

Sydney in: Danniher, 22  out 5 Papley

Essendon in: 3   out: Danniher

Carlton in: Papley  out 9

Makes no sense for Essendon considering all the talk is they get 5 and 9. We would be huge winners in this trade.

[drdrake 3,037]

5 minutes ago, Demon Forever said:

that would work

and what pick are we using for Langdon?

[whatwhat say what 18,870]

4 minutes ago, drdrake said:

and what pick are we using for Langdon?

next year's second rounder, as per how we want to do it this year

[DeeSpencer 23,087]

6 hours ago, Lord Nev said:

 

Well, the clubs use the points when working out deals, Mahoney famously was one of the first to really work that system, so makes sense to me to use it to value trade scenarios that people throw up, especially obviously unfair ones.

 

Clubs bring it up when trading for players with rough values or exchanging late picks in deals that favour academy/father son clubs, when it comes to top end picks getting swapped for lesser picks the system goes out the window. 

The Gold Coast paid 27 and 32 for picks 23 and a 5th rounder.

The Giants paid 28 and a Carlton 2nd round pick for 24 and a 5th rounder.

That was to draft Jez McLennan and Bobby Hill - teams gave up 2nd round picks to move up 4 spots!

When it comes to offering up pick 3 we need to make a big surplus on the draft values.

[DeeSpencer 23,087]

My price to move from pick 3 to pick 6 would be a top 15, maybe even a top 12 pick or equivalent player. 

Think about the potential difference between Oliver and Parish - and I like Parish! Or Oliver and Weideman. 

The only way to accept anything even remotely less than top dollar would be to wait until the night of the draft and have nearly complete certainty that the player you are drafting at pick 3 will remain there at pick 6.

The Giants are getting an extra top 3 pick by doing this deal, they have to pay up. 

[Lord Nev 13,511]

2 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

Clubs bring it up when trading for players with rough values or exchanging late picks in deals that favour academy/father son clubs, when it comes to top end picks getting swapped for lesser picks the system goes out the window. 

The Gold Coast paid 27 and 32 for picks 23 and a 5th rounder.

The Giants paid 28 and a Carlton 2nd round pick for 24 and a 5th rounder.

That was to draft Jez McLennan and Bobby Hill - teams gave up 2nd round picks to move up 4 spots!

When it comes to offering up pick 3 we need to make a big surplus on the draft values.

What were the actual number picks though? A "2nd rounder" could potentially be anything from pick 19 to pick 40 depending on what else happens. Pretty different scenarios.

Sure, would be great to make a surplus, but if people honestly think we're going to get two top 10 picks for pick 3 they're dreaming.

 

[Wrecker45 3,378]

4 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

My price to move from pick 3 to pick 6 would be a top 15, maybe even a top 12 pick or equivalent player. 

Think about the potential difference between Oliver and Parish - and I like Parish! Or Oliver and Weideman. 

The only way to accept anything even remotely less than top dollar would be to wait until the night of the draft and have nearly complete certainty that the player you are drafting at pick 3 will remain there at pick 6.

The Giants are getting an extra top 3 pick by doing this deal, they have to pay up. 

Lot’s on here wanted Parish with our pick. Draft picks are a bit of a lottery you can’t list the pontential difference on speculative picks.

[manny100 1,010]

The difference between Pick 3 and pick 6 is around a pick 25.  If Bonar is thrown in and is highly rated by Taylor and Co. then a deal looks good especially if we can get something else thrown in.

Bonar is said to be on between $300 and $400k.  GWS have some big money players coming out of contract next year. So they need to clear some $$$. If they bring in Green plus another high quality player at 3 their salaries are relatively small the first couple of years.

So GWS will be ready to deal with their players as well as pick 6.

[DeeSpencer 23,087]

8 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

What were the actual number picks though? A "2nd rounder" could potentially be anything from pick 19 to pick 40 depending on what else happens. Pretty different scenarios.

Sure, would be great to make a surplus, but if people honestly think we're going to get two top 10 picks for pick 3 they're dreaming.

 

23 and a future 5th : 27, 32
24 and a future 5th: 28, future 2nd Carlton = 2019 pick 23 (for now, likely more 25-27).

Now there was talk of a draft drop off after those picks, and GWS probably are happy with 23, 28 for Bobby Hill, it's a lot but the kid can play. Gold Coast not so much for Jez Mclennan at this stage. But it shows what teams were willing to do when a player they wanted was right there in front of them and available. 

[DeeSpencer 23,087]

5 minutes ago, Wrecker45 said:

Lot’s on here wanted Parish with our pick. Draft picks are a bit of a lottery you can’t list the pontential difference on speculative picks.

That's true, for every better top pick there's a better player drafted at 7-10 like a Selwood or Danger but when it comes to draft night the team with pick 3 has the best shot and getting the Oliver, Bont, De Goey etc. The team with pick 3 has the chance to make the best pick, the team with pick 6 has to hope their guy gets through.

St Kilda just moved from 6 to 12, and got pick 18 to do so. I would argue that moving from 3 to 6 is more valuable than moving from 6-12 given it all but guarantees the Giants of getting their man. It's at least worth a first rounder pick and I'd want it to be top 15.

[Nascent 7,225]

12 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

What were the actual number picks though? A "2nd rounder" could potentially be anything from pick 19 to pick 40 depending on what else happens. Pretty different scenarios.

Sure, would be great to make a surplus, but if people honestly think we're going to get two top 10 picks for pick 3 they're dreaming.

 

All depends on how each team views the draft and those potentially available at each selection.  Port Adelaide offered us pick 8 and 9 to get their hands on Trengove at pick 2. We refused.

The point system is really only a guide and meant to add fairness to father/son and academy bidding and helps clubs even up trades with later pick swaps. They already did the latter intuitively before the f/s overhaul.  The points index value pick 8 and 9 as superior to pick 1, but you're not going to see Gold Coast give up Rowell for those picks and Carlton certainly wouldn't give up Walsh for that last year. To even consider giving up the right to an elite player someone would need to pay overs.

You're probably right that a team won't want to give up 2 picks inside the top 10 in this draft. But that doesn't mean we should throw away pick 3 for inferior picks in the teens if we don't see value in it. I guess it will be up to the recruiters to identify where that line is.

 

[Dwight Schrute 16,747]

Splitting the pick all depends on if we'd get the same guy with 6 that we want with 3 or if they're close enough it's an advantage. 

i'm not sure Young will be there at 6 but Flanders or Ash are fair chances to be around the mark

 

[Demon Forever 219]

4 minutes ago, Patches O’houlihan said:

Splitting the pick all depends on if we'd get the same guy with 6 that we want with 3 or if they're close enough it's an advantage. 

i'm not sure Young will be there at 6 but Flanders or Ash are fair chances to be around the mark

 

I think serong will be the guy we are after

[Forever the pessimist. 18]

I think we should offer Freo our pick 3, next years first rounder and pick 22 for Langdon and their pick 12 that they’ll get from the saints for Hill. 

[Forever the pessimist. 18]

Sorry! I stuffed that up. I mean just 22 and next years first rounder for Langdon and their pick 12 that they’ll get from the saints for Hill. We keep 3 of course. 

[DistrACTION Jackson 6,418]

1 hour ago, manny100 said:

The difference between Pick 3 and pick 6 is around a pick 25.  If Bonar is thrown in and is highly rated by Taylor and Co. then a deal looks good especially if we can get something else thrown in.

Bonar is said to be on between $300 and $400k.  GWS have some big money players coming out of contract next year. So they need to clear some $$$. If they bring in Green plus another high quality player at 3 their salaries are relatively small the first couple of years.

So GWS will be ready to deal with their players as well as pick 6.

Would rather get Caldwell..... not sure if Bonar is really what we need?

[Beetle 4,280]

Channel 7 news reporting GWS will offer us pick 6 with a big offer for pick 3.