Roos + Lyon - On The Couch

[beelzebub 22,225]

39 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

I blame the camp.....

In a fashion you'd  be correct

[Binmans PA 25,923]

21 hours ago, praha said:

Lyon is trying to get a response. Reasonable to think last year was an aberration but we won't truly know that until probably mid-2020. By which point I suspect we'll either be heavily in contention or Goodwin will be gone.

It's a disgrace the position we're in. A few on this board understate it quite a bit. But it's very difficult to bounce back quickly from this position. I think Goodwin and co. have "over cooked" the pasta with some poor player management and development choices as well as trades that at the time looked good but perhaps set us back. It's all been over cooked and after taking 4 steps forward last year, we took a bullet train 4km back in 2019.

2019 now is about saving *some* face but in typical Melbourne fashion I highly doubt we'll win another game this year. A 5-win season with <80% percentage is coach killing for a team with finals aspirations. We may even see Goodwin gone by the end of the season.

Lyon speaks with emotion and frustration in his heart. He is a ruthless competitor. 17th at this stage is unacceptable no matter how you spin it.

Absolutely no way we see Goodwin gone by the end of this season. Twaddle. 

[sue 8,415]

My apologies for donning my rose-coloured glasses, but I suspect the main aberration is the position on the ladder in that it doesn't truly represent as much as many of us are reading into it.

[Lucifers Hero 36,988]

12 minutes ago, sue said:

My apologies for donning my rose-coloured glasses, but I suspect the main aberration is the position on the ladder in that it doesn't truly represent as much as many of us are reading into it.

I've seen ladders which reverse the narrow wins/losses and we won only 2 or 3 games and are bottom 3.  Another ladder removes the GCS results and we are bottom 17th.

So on what measure does the ladder position not truly represent as much as many are reading into it?

Edited July 23, 2019 by Lucifer's Hero

[praha 10,270]

2 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

Anyway, the argument is simple: there's a much stronger case to say 2019 is an aberration than there is to say 2018 was.

There really isn't. Unless you don't consider finals a genuine KPI. Like I've said wins alone aren't a good metric in isolation. Look at ladder position, %. A number of metrics. Linear growth is reasonable if you're a 2 win side with a 50% percentage. But a season with finals is clearly the aberration. I can't see how you could argue otherwise. 

12 out of 13 seasons without finals. Logic says that 1 season is the outlier. So yes this year is the outlier in a selective group of years that covers 2014-2019 in that it's the inly season without linear improvement. But it's also the 5th of 6 years where we haven't played finals.

So in the much grander, "We're In This To Win Flags Not Just Improve Our Win-Loss Ratio" scheme of things, last year was the aberration.

Edited July 23, 2019 by praha

[ding 5,126]

I just want to be proud of my club again.

Last year i was proud for a few weeks at least.

This year, for not even1 week have i felt proud. Have'nt attended a single game either, after upgrading my membership in expectation of a good showing.

Give us something MFC

 

 

[picket fence 15,083]

2 hours ago, jnrmac said:

Injuries are a poor excuse The pies injury list is:

  Anton Tohill
  Ben Reid
  Christopher Mayne
  Daniel Wells
  Darcy Moore
  Dayne Beams
  Jaidyn Stephenson
  James Aish
  Jamie Elliott
Jeremy Howe
  John Noble
  Josh Thomas
  Levi Greenwood
  Lynden Dunn
  Nathan Murphy
  Samuel Murray
Scott Pendlebury
  Tom Langdon
  Will Kelly
 

They have had injuries all year. They aren't playing well at the moment but they put us to shame with their effort

Absolutely correct , Too many of our players are easily satisfied and I believe our coaching and selection strategy this year has been very poor!

[picket fence 15,083]

1 hour ago, sue said:

My apologies for donning my rose-coloured glasses, but I suspect the main aberration is the position on the ladder in that it doesn't truly represent as much as many of us are reading into it.

Jaheeesus Sue, lets talk Reality.. We are 17th 1 spot behind BASKET CASE GCS. 

If that dont Ram it home re reality..... and reading things into it Nothing will!

[Superunknown 3,307]

1 hour ago, praha said:

There really isn't. Unless you don't consider finals a genuine KPI. Like I've said wins alone aren't a good metric in isolation. Look at ladder position, %. A number of metrics. Linear growth is reasonable if you're a 2 win side with a 50% percentage. But a season with finals is clearly the aberration. I can't see how you could argue otherwise. 

12 out of 13 seasons without finals. Logic says that 1 season is the outlier. So yes this year is the outlier in a selective group of years that covers 2014-2019 in that it's the inly season without linear improvement. But it's also the 5th of 6 years where we haven't played finals.

So in the much grander, "We're In This To Win Flags Not Just Improve Our Win-Loss Ratio" scheme of things, last year was the aberration.

Do we have a statistician amongst us. Perhaps we could create some statistical process control charts and let the numbers indisputably put this to bed. (I agree, using a reasonable sample size, 2018 an aberration , too early to tell with Goodwin and his n=3 sample size . Can you even derive a statistically significant result from that ?)

[Fork 'em 6,507]

4 hours ago, Lord Nev said:

Sorry mate, which bit do you mean?

That plenty of players out there don't have 1% of the passion that he has.
I'd love to hear what blokes like Neitz, Bruce, Green, Farmer, Robbo, Grinter , etc, etc ........ Think.
My old man works with Biffo for eg.
Still loves the Dees.
But not in the media, so don't hear from them.

Edited July 23, 2019 by Fork 'em

[Lord Nev 13,511]

30 minutes ago, Fork 'em said:

That plenty of players out there don't have 1% of the passion that he has.
I'd love to hear what blokes like Neitz, Bruce, Green, Farmer, Robbo, Grinter , etc, etc ........ Think.
My old man works with Biffo for eg.
Still loves the Dees.
But not in the media, so don't hear from them.

I never said other players don't have "1% of the passion that he has".

What I said was, Lyon seems to always get slammed by Dees fans for not being involved or not being down the club, but as I said, he's down at training more than most other players, and I think it's crazy a former captain and team of the century player cops it from our fans while there's hundreds of former players out there who get a free pass.

[rjay 23,883]

9 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

The criticism of Lyon comes from the fact he (either voluntarily or through coercion) wandered in to the club to have a bit of a dip at selecting coaches without joining the board and doing it properly.

 

I actually blame the board for this...it was their job to oversee the club & ensure it was run properly.

They should have stepped up and stepped in.

There is no way a professional outfit would have someone without any experience review & make recommendations on it's operations.

Lyon should have told thanks but no thanks...

[Lord Nev 13,511]

Just now, rjay said:

I actually blame the board for this...it was their job to oversee the club & ensure it was run properly.

They should have stepped up and stepped in.

There is no way a professional outfit would have someone without any experience review & make recommendations on it's operations.

Lyon should have told thanks but no thanks...

Again, his best mate, the president of the club, dying of cancer, asked him to do it.

But sure, have a crack at him for trying to help the club he loves in that situation.

FFS.

[whatwhat say what 18,833]

It is hard to judge who is right - Roos, the successful coach who looks on the positive side of things - or Lyon, the cynical media commentator who speaks from his heart

Hope it’s the former, but the MFCSS in me says the latter

[Pennant St Dee 11,250]

12 hours ago, Engorged Onion said:

Are you Ratten's manager?

I thought he was making a nmbid as Demonland's new Village Idiot, he's going to take some beating 

[Dr. Gonzo 22,404]

9 hours ago, Sir Why You Little said:

Yes i know we got hit hard, so did Richmond and Meth Coke. 

What has worried me more than that, is the skill level of those that were not injured.

Our “elite” midfield and forward line should have taken a lot of heat off the Backline, but this wasn’t even close to happening 

This is the bigger issue for me. I have never seen an AFL side drop it’s skill level, across the board and in one pre season like the 2019 MFC. 

There is far more at play than just the injury list I believe. 

Richmond and West coast have more mature lists so they have greater depth to cover their injuries. Our depth is guys like Dunkley, Lockhart, Wagner x2 etc

[Sir Why You Little 34,430]

4 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Richmond and West coast have more mature lists so they have greater depth to cover their injuries. Our depth is guys like Dunkley, Lockhart, Wagner x2 etc

Well that is our fault isn’t it. We chose them...

[rjay 23,883]

10 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

Again, his best mate, the president of the club, dying of cancer, asked him to do it.

But sure, have a crack at him for trying to help the club he loves in that situation.

FFS.

I'm not having a crack at him at all, I'm having a fair crack at the board who didn't carry out their responsibilities.

...and no I'm not having a go at Jimmy now either but he shouldn't have been in a position to make key decisions given the precarious position he was in with his health. How could he possibly have been thinking clearly.

No, the inaction of that board set us back years and I still can't forgive them for it.

[Pennant St Dee 11,250]

11 hours ago, praha said:

Yes you're right but "aberration" does not <=> "fluke". It simply means "not normal", against the grain. Last year was a season filled with many highs but also quite a few lows that, in retrospect, reflected a game style that was far too volatile and predictable to be viable long term. Percentage is a great indicator of quality and what it reflected last year was that we won games by 30% more than our average losing margin. We also know that teams with a percentage of < 110% tend to not go very far in finals. The lowest % of the every premier in the 2000s and 2010 was 115% in 2016 by Bulldogs and in 2005 by the Swans. Basically you need a % of at least 120% to win a flag based on historical performances. Last year we were premiership caliber collectively across the season but considering the drop off this year we need to analyse where and how it's dropped off.

I've had a look at every finals team dating back to 2001 and looked at their % rise or fall the following season. Here are the largest drops, season-on-season. This looks at % difference, not the total difference.

 

Carlton 2001-2002	-43.13%	5th-16th
West Coast 2007-2008	-41.04%	3rd-15th
Melbourne 2018-2019	-38.66%	5th-17th
Richmond 2015-2016	-35.42%	5th-13th
Fremantle 2015-2016	-37.41	1st-16th

So, as an example Carlton's % dropped 43.13% in 2002 (73.13%) vs their 2001 % (128.60%).

Of those teams, only Richmond bounced back to play finals the following year. WC had two more years down and "won" the wooden spoon in 2010 (only because we piped them for the spoon in 2008). 

So historically we have seen one of the most significant drop offs this century year-on-year after a finals performance. 

• Carlton - 3 wins in 2002
• West Coast - 4 wins in 2008
• Melbourne - 5 wins in 2019
• Richmond - 8 wins in 2016
• Fremantle - 4 wins in 2016

Richmond being the obvious outlier here, having bounced back to win a flag.

We'll know in 8 months time whether we're a Richmond or a Carlton.

Just a couple of points

Stats can be used any way you want and lets not compare apples with oranges none of those lists at Freo, Carlton or the Eagles were anything like our current list

Are you taking into account what happened to Carlton end of 2001 for their drop off and the Eagles for 2008.

All 3 of those playing groups were coming to an end of a long period of being contenders and time for their lists to be turned over

The salary cap fines/penalties on the Blues had a bigger impact and 2008 at the Eagles was when they decided the couldn't sweep things under the carpet any longer.

We do not yet have a solid nucleus with 7-10 years under their belt like Cotchin, Rance, Reiwoldt or Martin at this stage.

 

 

[Dr. Gonzo 22,404]

5 hours ago, jnrmac said:

Injuries are a poor excuse The pies injury list is:

  Anton Tohill
  Ben Reid
  Christopher Mayne
  Daniel Wells
  Darcy Moore
  Dayne Beams
  Jaidyn Stephenson
  James Aish
  Jamie Elliott
Jeremy Howe
  John Noble
  Josh Thomas
  Levi Greenwood
  Lynden Dunn
  Nathan Murphy
  Samuel Murray
Scott Pendlebury
  Tom Langdon
  Will Kelly
 

They have had injuries all year. They aren't playing well at the moment but they put us to shame with their effort

Not sure where you got your list

Of the unavailable players only Moore, Langdon & Beams could be considered big losses.

[leucopogon 1,468]

16 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Richmond and West coast have more mature lists so they have greater depth to cover their injuries. Our depth is guys like Dunkley, Lockhart, Wagner x2 etc

Sure would have liked Cam Pedersen on the list this year. Stupid decision to delist him.

[Dr. Gonzo 22,404]

3 hours ago, praha said:

There really isn't. Unless you don't consider finals a genuine KPI. Like I've said wins alone aren't a good metric in isolation. Look at ladder position, %. A number of metrics. Linear growth is reasonable if you're a 2 win side with a 50% percentage. But a season with finals is clearly the aberration. I can't see how you could argue otherwise. 

12 out of 13 seasons without finals. Logic says that 1 season is the outlier. So yes this year is the outlier in a selective group of years that covers 2014-2019 in that it's the inly season without linear improvement. But it's also the 5th of 6 years where we haven't played finals.

So in the much grander, "We're In This To Win Flags Not Just Improve Our Win-Loss Ratio" scheme of things, last year was the aberration.

That's assuming each season every team has the same list makeup with the same opportunity to play finals. While theoretically that is true in reality we all know we were not going to play finals in 2014 or 2015 and most likely 2016. Therefore to use those seasons as evidence that 2018 was an outlier is disingenuous because it fails to add context or take into account the fact we were building from ground zero in 2014. We were a VFL level team in 2012-13 I mean Dean terlich and Matt Jones both came top 5 in our B&F one year. If that's not the definition of a VFL level team I don't know what is

Edited July 23, 2019 by Dr. Gonzo

[Dr. Gonzo 22,404]

20 minutes ago, Sir Why You Little said:

Well that is our fault isn’t it. We chose them...

We've had to completely rebuild our list from 2014 onwards following the failed prior rebuilds. West Coast and Richmond began their builds in 2007-09. Who do we have left from back then Jones and Gawn?

Yeah it's "our" fault (as in MFC) but it's not the fault of the current FD or coach. The list was stuffed under prior regimes and has been built and developed under this one. It's just the fact that we are still a young team and injuries to our key players will hit us harder until we have a mature list with decent depth.

[Dr. Gonzo 22,404]

18 minutes ago, Pennant St Dee said:

Just a couple of points

Stats can be used any way you want and lets not compare apples with oranges none of those lists at Freo, Carlton or the Eagles were anything like our current list

Are you taking into account what happened to Carlton end of 2001 for their drop off and the Eagles for 2008.

All 3 of those playing groups were coming to an end of a long period of being contenders and time for their lists to be turned over

The salary cap fines/penalties on the Blues had a bigger impact and 2008 at the Eagles was when they decided the couldn't sweep things under the carpet any longer.

We do not yet have a solid nucleus with 7-10 years under their belt like Cotchin, Rance, Reiwoldt or Martin at this stage.

 

 

Agree mate but trying to use logic with the perennially outraged is like banging your head against the wall

[Sir Why You Little 34,430]

Just now, Dr. Gonzo said:

We've had to completely rebuild our list from 2014 onwards following the failed prior rebuilds. West Coast and Richmond began their builds in 2007-09. Who do we have left from back then Jones and Gawn?

Yeah it's "our" fault (as in MFC) but it's not the fault of the current FD or coach. The list was stuffed under prior regimes and has been built and developed under this one. It's just the fact that we are still a young team and injuries to our key players will hit us harder until we have a mature list with decent depth.

Yes i realize that. But we also have a lot of similar players that lack some pace. 

That is the Current FD and Coach to a certain extent