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Demonsone

From Prelim To Wooden Spoon?

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1 hour ago, stevethemanjordan said:

I've said none of those things and I don't hold the view that you're arguing against so this is a pointless exercise. 

I'm not directing my view towards you SMJ.

I am one who whilst unaccepting of this seasonholds the view tweaks need to be made and the players need to work harder. I see this year as a reality check.

I don't like being labelled as accepting mediocrity and having low standards because I don't want a coach sacked or form the opinion that this aeasn would not have happened under Roos/Jackson 

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4 hours ago, Pennant St Dee said:

They should have listened to SWYL, apparently he knew we were going to have the season like this as soon as Goodwin spoke after last years Prelim performance.

No doubt with that insight he saved himself the extra $'s by not ticking for the guaranteed GF package 

Wise advice indeed...

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10 minutes ago, Pennant St Dee said:

I'm not directing my view towards you SMJ.

I am one who whilst unaccepting of this seasonholds the view tweaks need to be made and the players need to work harder. I see this year as a reality check.

I don't like being labelled as accepting mediocrity and having low standards because I don't want a coach sacked or form the opinion that this aeasn would not have happened under Roos/Jackson 

Indeed. 

And the thing I always find funny in these sort of threads is the consistent misrepresentation of people's views.

As an example I can't recall a single poster saying  injury and interrupted preseaons are the only reason for how we have gone this year.

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8 hours ago, binman said:

Good post praha.

A (genuine) question about the above quote. As a former business analyst if you were investing in a company that was is in a notoriously volatile market place, where linear improvement is the exception to the rule would you not caution potential investors to be circumspect about expectations and not panic if in one year things go backward, particularly if mitigating factors conspire against success?

As PJ noted a number of times the AFL is exactly such a market. A shrewd operator, he made a point of cautioning fans  against expecting linear improvement.

I'm really pleased the club has not fallen into the trap of deviating off course or panicky public statements. The fact the club was brave enough to make changes to the coaching set up mid season tells me that they are not afraid of taking remedial action and is a clear message they are focused on continual improvement. This gives me a lot of confidence we are in good hands - and in my life time that has hardly ever been the case at the dees.

The tigers are a terrific example of the importance of heeding PJ's advice. The panic merchants and wrist slashers were in the ascendancy and came hard at the Tiger's executive, board and hardwick. To their eternal credit they held their ground and didn't deviate of course. They put in place the supports and systems hardwick needed, helped him improve and invested in their their FD.

Their reward was a premiership. 

Yes, 100%. But I did mention linear growth OR stability. By stability I mean there is margin for drops and they should be expected but they are countered by equal measure growth. We've seen steady linear growth...and a hard crash. Hard crashes are typical of hostile/unstable/uncertain markets or environment. They are extremely rare otherwise and if they do appear otherwise they are typically reflective of low confidence, internal factors or poor decisions. Not always can they be directly measured next to tangible decisions but when they can be it typically means the rare occasion where quick change is applied. The "fail quickly". Organisations will never admit it but this is where you see *important* change that keeps, or reestablishes morale. It is tough in the football world and different to corporate but I would think until round 10 2020 would be equivalent to a financial quarter in the business world.

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As noted on another thread that I just read (coincedeetally as part of a conversation on a similar subject - or perhaps not given you are part of that conversation) there are a number of relatively recent examples of team going backwards and rebounding soon after to win flags. The common thread of those teams have been stability st board and executive level. And as I noted a real positive is that seems to be the case at the dees.

Granted few have fallen as far as we have. But few have had the sort of run we have had with injury and interrupted pre seasons. As i noted before this is the worse run I can recall us having. To be clear this is not the only cause of our issues, but it is the most significant.

I am complete agreement that if we have not righted the ship by round 10 2020 we are in trouble. But I am confident (based on the evidence of our steady improvement in the last six years,  the quality of people in place -particularly goody - and the stabty at board and exec levl) tbat we will rebound.

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1 hour ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Wooden spoon eh?

Cant really see GC winning 3 of their last 5 games.

Gold Coast don’t count as a real team. 

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34 minutes ago, binman said:

As noted on another thread that I just read (coincedeetally as part of a conversation on a similar subject - or perhaps not given you are part of that conversation) there are a number of relatively recent examples of team going backwards and rebounding soon after to win flags. The common thread of those teams have been stability st board and executive level. And as I noted a real positive is that seems to be the case at the dees.

Granted few have fallen as far as we have. But few have had the sort of run we have had with injury and interrupted pre seasons. As i noted before this is the worse run I can recall us having. To be clear this is not the only cause of our issues, but it is the most significant.

I am complete agreement that if we have not righted the ship by round 10 2020 we are in trouble. But I am confident (based on the evidence of our steady improvement in the last six years,  the quality of people in place -particularly goody - and the stabty at board and exec levl) tbat we will rebound.

Confident isn't the right word for me personally. I am in two minds. I am *confident* we have a strong core but believe major change still needs to occur. I feel there is an element of complacency for the sake of stability. You can make major change without interrupting said stability. As a club I fear we are now fearful of huge change because of the past. Hopefully last year wasn't our peak. If it wasn't then historical analysis tells us that a similarly sharp spike above and beyond where we were last year is possible. However if it was our peak, then we will stay steadily at the crash point for a few years to come.

Huge 8-10 months for Goodwin and co.

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10 hours ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

A steady rebuild under Roos was completely undone in less than a season. Those who agree that we’ll be ‘fine’ next season, apart from hope, what exactly is that being based on?  We’re back to square one. I’m not ‘slashing my wrists’ (horrible phrase by the way), just a realist who’s seen it all before and have seen nothing to suggest we’ll turn it all around by early next season. 

Fair comments Ethan.

I am going to play Pollyanna and "hope" that we turn it around next year.

However, if we don't, [censored] Pollyanna and I'll be at the front of the pack baying for Goodwin's head.

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petracca to spend all pre-season learning to kick would be nice. 

seriously though, we need an improved game plan. we get burnt on the outside far too much. so we need a game plan that brings the ball in closer yet also enables numbers to be back in the case that we lose the stoppage.

forwards need to convert better in front of the sticks and weideman needs to lift otherwise Petty can take his place. 

 

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16 minutes ago, praha said:

Confident isn't the right word for me personally. I am in two minds. I am *confident* we have a strong core but believe major change still needs to occur. I feel there is an element of complacency for the sake of stability. You can make major change without interrupting said stability. As a club I fear we are now fearful of huge change because of the past. Hopefully last year wasn't our peak. If it wasn't then historical analysis tells us that a similarly sharp spike above and beyond where we were last year is possible. However if it was our peak, then we will stay steadily at the crash point for a few years to come.

Huge 8-10 months for Goodwin and co.

Agreed 100%

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2 hours ago, Engorged Onion said:

Are you saying that  first, second, third, fourth,fifth,sixth etc etc year coaches, don't continue their professional development and evolve? 

This is a very intersting area i feel. 

Im not sure there's  too many other elite professional  leagues of any sport that seem to be placing such an emphasis on coaching development.  And by this i refer to the new buzz thing of doing the AFL coaching academy  thing to get your bit of paper to go coach...at the highest  level.

Coaching  dev IS a good thing in general. It affords the opportunity  for many at many levels to become  familiar with "best practices "  and to provide a resource that would for many be unavailable. I see that as more of a tool used holistically  over the game.

Does this make you a good Snr AFL coach ?  I dont see why tbh. 

The best coaches simply have the best foitball brains and the ability to surround  themselves  with like minded who can do the day to day stuff.

All these sporting  codes.. all these successful  coaches...what they have in common  is nouse. ..not a made up bit of paper.

Of course good coaches continue  development.  Only a fool stops learning.

There is surely a difference  though between  further development  and thatvwhich is rwquired to be manifestly capable in the first place.

 

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1 hour ago, praha said:

Yes, 100%. But I did mention linear growth OR stability. By stability I mean there is margin for drops and they should be expected but they are countered by equal measure growth. We've seen steady linear growth...and a hard crash. Hard crashes are typical of hostile/unstable/uncertain markets or environment. They are extremely rare otherwise and if they do appear otherwise they are typically reflective of low confidence, internal factors or poor decisions. Not always can they be directly measured next to tangible decisions but when they can be it typically means the rare occasion where quick change is applied. The "fail quickly". Organisations will never admit it but this is where you see *important* change that keeps, or reestablishes morale. It is tough in the football world and different to corporate but I would think until round 10 2020 would be equivalent to a financial quarter in the business world.

IMO, the severity of our crash (i.e. our ladder position) doesn't align with our overall form/performances.

Since ANZAC Eve we're 4-6 and those 6 losses included Adelaide, West Coast, Brisbane and the Dogs (i.e. games that we had the lead for significant periods of time).

Our season was shot early (and I'm not trying to pin that all to injuries/the pre-season), but over the last 10 weeks my view is that our form has been mid-table average, not bottom-2 rubbish.

Just my opinion, others will disagree.

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28 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

IMO, the severity of our crash (i.e. our ladder position) doesn't align with our overall form/performances.

Since ANZAC Eve we're 4-6 and those 6 losses included Adelaide, West Coast, Brisbane and the Dogs (i.e. games that we had the lead for significant periods of time).

Our season was shot early (and I'm not trying to pin that all to injuries/the pre-season), but over the last 10 weeks my view is that our form has been mid-table average, not bottom-2 rubbish.

Just my opinion, others will disagree.

If looking at the ladder in isolation then yes we are playing better than a 17th placed side. However statistically we have seen sharp drops in key areas. i50 conversion, goal accuracy, overall efficiency across the ground. So the upside is that despite seeing such major drops across the board we haven't looked awful of the GC caliber. We have still looked very poor though. Today will be interesting. 

Of the matches you mentioned only the Crows and Eagles games we ever looked like winning. Even though we only lost by 8 last week we never looked like winning. It was the same vs Brisbane.

Further mid-table this year is much better than how we're performing so I'll disagree with you on that. North, Adelaide, Port, Bulldogs have all played much better football. North would be strong favourites against us.

Will be very interesting next 5-6 weeks. If you're right and we can stay relatively injury free than 2-3 wins should be the minimum.

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the two wins against fellow cellar dwellers were by less than a goal and achieved literally in the last minute.

We definitely are playing like a bottom side.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Dr.D said:

petracca to spend all pre-season learning to kick would be nice. 

seriously though, we need an improved game plan. we get burnt on the outside far too much. so we need a game plan that brings the ball in closer yet also enables numbers to be back in the case that we lose the stoppage.

forwards need to convert better in front of the sticks and weideman needs to lift otherwise Petty can take his place. 

 

Abit rough singling out Petracca and the Weed.
We've got a side of habitual butchers with the mids the worst of them.
And they won't learn to hit targets or make good decisions during the off season.

Edited by Fork 'em
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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, stevethemanjordan said:

Accepting mediocrity vs wrist slashing. 

I wonder which is more extreme... 

And what determines 'measured' in this instance? It depends on the perspective one takes. 

Most of these types of threads are statistical, pointing at how god-awful we've been this year. 

They're measured. It's just we have one group who believe that injury is the reason we're 17th vs another who believe there are underlying problems and injury whilst contributing has only further highlighted thoss problems. 

Great sides find a way even with Injuries..eg Tigers, Gws still battling top 4-6, we are not a great side & don't bat not deep enough. The sad part is we have had over a decade of early picks/rebuilds & still can't get enough elite players on our list.

Edited by Demonsone
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So we'd win the wooden spoon if there wasn't a team worse than us. Nobody's happy to be total filth this year but we've obviously run out of ways to express it.

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52 minutes ago, Demonsone said:

Great sides find a way even with Injuries..eg Tigers, Gws still battling top 4-6, we are not a great side & don't bat not deep enough. The sad part is we have had over a decade of early picks/rebuilds & still can't get enough elite players on our list.

But they still get big bucks.

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There’s having an off season, then there’s finishing 2nd last which is just completely off the rails. 

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2 hours ago, Fork 'em said:

Abit rough singling out Petracca and the Weed.
We've got a side of habitual butchers with the mids the worst of them.
And they won't learn to hit targets or make good decisions during the off season.

afl players have been playing footy since they were at primary school and playing at elite levels as juniors such as tac cup then on to an elite afl list for many years. our skills aren't any worse than last season. its 100% structure. 

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14 hours ago, stevethemanjordan said:

Accepting mediocrity vs wrist slashing. 

I wonder which is more extreme... 

And what determines 'measured' in this instance? It depends on the perspective one takes. 

Most of these types of threads are statistical, pointing at how god-awful we've been this year. 

They're measured. It's just we have one group who believe that injury is the reason we're 17th vs another who believe there are underlying problems and injury whilst contributing has only further highlighted thoss problems. 

Too black and white for me mate. There's a third 'grey' category, which combines both perspectives. Injuries, lack of pre seasons, failure of game plan, failure to adjust in game (goes to leadership and coaching) and a lack of  are just a few reasons.

I haven't read too many posts that merely say it's injuries. In fact, has anyone said injuries are the ONLY reason?

As for @praha's reasonable response, I disagree with some of the sentiment and it might actually point to why he may be struggling to get others to follow him in his worksphere. Failure is essential to learning. If you don't accept failure, you can't learn. That is why I feel very little frustration this year and have basically tuned out of the season (outside of Melbourne games).

I'm looking forward to next year, because we need changes and we need adjustments. We don't need to throw the baby out with the bathwater, but we do need to learn from our failure of 2019. A finish outside of the 8 next year is unacceptable, because it will have meant we haven't planned ahead and learnt from our failure.

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3 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

IMO, the severity of our crash (i.e. our ladder position) doesn't align with our overall form/performances.

Since ANZAC Eve we're 4-6 and those 6 losses included Adelaide, West Coast, Brisbane and the Dogs (i.e. games that we had the lead for significant periods of time).

Our season was shot early (and I'm not trying to pin that all to injuries/the pre-season), but over the last 10 weeks my view is that our form has been mid-table average, not bottom-2 rubbish.

Just my opinion, others will disagree.

Agreed and it highlights for me the importance of confidence and getting early wins on the board. We talk about game style and structures a lot, but if you're getting beaten every week playing a certain way, you start to not believe in what you're doing and hope that changes come (ie a new pre season).

It's a bit like when the figurative dam wall breaks in the fourth quarter of a game and a team knows they can't win, all of a sudden, a game that was close becomes a blow out. They start to go through the motions, knowing they can't win. That's where we've been for much of the season and it's why under Roos, getting as many pre season wins as possible to build momentum going into the season proper, was the rhetoric out of the FD at the time.

With a softer draw next year, if we can build momentum early like Collingwood did up until the bye in 2018 (minus their first two games) and even we did through that 6 game stretch last year, anything can happen at the pointy end of a season with a bit luck, confidence and work rate. Just look at Brisbane.

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

afl players have been playing footy since they were at primary school and playing at elite levels as juniors such as tac cup then on to an elite afl list for many years. our skills aren't any worse than last season. its 100% structure. 

Last season wasn't that good mate.
They still butchered it flat out with stats saying we had a very poor conversion rate for inside 50s.
They got abit of belief at the right time of the year.
That's all.
West Coast exposed them in the Prelim like good sides do.
 

Edited by Fork 'em
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Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, A F said:

Too black and white for me mate. There's a third 'grey' category, which combines both perspectives. Injuries, lack of pre seasons, failure of game plan, failure to adjust in game (goes to leadership and coaching) and a lack of  are just a few reasons.

I haven't read too many posts that merely say it's injuries. In fact, has anyone said injuries are the ONLY reason?

As for @praha's reasonable response, I disagree with some of the sentiment and it might actually point to why he may be struggling to get others to follow him in his worksphere. Failure is essential to learning. If you don't accept failure, you can't learn. That is why I feel very little frustration this year and have basically tuned out of the season (outside of Melbourne games).

I'm looking forward to next year, because we need changes and we need adjustments. We don't need to throw the baby out with the bathwater, but we do need to learn from our failure of 2019. A finish outside of the 8 next year is unacceptable, because it will have meant we haven't planned ahead and learnt from our failure.

Keep on hearing the same from club & co .....my question is along with many what are the issues with this footy club that results in them falling off the cliff after tasting some success. History continues to repeat itself. Personally 20 + year member & supporter since the 70s & considering not buying a membership until this club proves itself as just can't trust them anymore!

Edited by Demonsone

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