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Stats-file 2019

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The Statistic that really highlights our problem is shown as follows:

We have lacked talent in our forward line this year:

Comparing 14 leading scorers from 2018 to 2019 and looking at averages per games played.

Team Goals negative 5 per game.

8 players down on last year, 2 up on last year (Hunt and Petracca)

Effect of Hogan, Melksham missing is nearly 3.6 goals per game with no effective replacements.

Effect of McDonald, Hannan, Neal Bullen and Garlett drop off is 2.7 goals per game.

Priority is forward effectiveness for 2020.

image.png.0a5d529d35402cdfdef0c4ab83197216.png

 

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, Sweetman said:

The Statistic that really highlights our problem is shown as follows:

We have lacked talent in our forward line this year:

Comparing 14 leading scorers from 2018 to 2019 and looking at averages per games played.

Team Goals negative 5 per game.

8 players down on last year, 2 up on last year (Hunt and Petracca)

Effect of Hogan, Melksham missing is nearly 3.6 goals per game with no effective replacements.

Effect of McDonald, Hannan, Neal Bullen and Garlett drop off is 2.7 goals per game.

Priority is forward effectiveness for 2020.

image.png.0a5d529d35402cdfdef0c4ab83197216.png

 

Which would probably have seen us win at least two more matches (minimum), one at a critical point in the season in Rnd 11 against the Crows and the weekend's match.

Nice work and definitely a major part of why we have fallen off the 2018 cliff.

Edited by Rusty Nails

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Player / Team Stats Form Guide

To Rnd 18, 2019 vs Season 2018

*Erratum update - Lever now included!*

image.thumb.png.045f2cc6107ce7c91b7d358483f683f1.png

The biggest improvement ....Fritschkreig...closing the gap on his 2018 form differential by nearly 5% and jumping one place into 9th.

Clarry, Harmes, Gawn (who i would roughly have in 3rd place, or thereabouts, if hit outs to advantage were included) and Salem all improved.  Quite a feat given they were already heading the table.

The biggest drop was the Big P.....dropping a massive 13.7% and 9 places!

We improved our season's team score marginally by approx 0.8% vs 2018.  Not withstanding the fact we still managed to lose both matches, this round was our 2nd best performance statistically (64.925), only beaten by our Rnd 11 performance vs the Crows (67.275).

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, Lord Nev said:

These are the key stats. I don't believe for a second that our forward like alone is the issue. 

Would also like a look at points scored for and against from rebound defensive 50, 2018 vs 2019.

That image quite literally shows how we went from a team firmly in flag contention, to 17th.

It was reasonable for "experts" to have us as a flag contender based on those stats because we were in the top across so many. 

Edited by praha
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12 hours ago, Lord Nev said:

Wow, a complete 180 degree turn. I can’t get into the article. Does it go into any detail about the demise?

I accept injuries play a part to an extent where we haven’t had the right balance all season and having to use players that perhaps aren’t up to it or not ready, but those stats also tell me the opposition has done its homework on our strong points and we have struggled to counter for various reasons.

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On 7/25/2019 at 4:12 AM, praha said:

These are the key stats. I don't believe for a second that our forward like alone is the issue. 

Would also like a look at points scored for and against from rebound defensive 50, 2018 vs 2019.

That image quite literally shows how we went from a team firmly in flag contention, to 17th.

It was reasonable for "experts" to have us as a flag contender based on those stats because we were in the top across so many. 

Apart from a one dimensional flawed game style (chaos bash crash - overwhelm the opponent with numbers at the ball)  i would suggest you may wish to start believing that it is certainly one of THE main reasons Praha.  It is complete shizen and all those stats you listed are forward line related. 

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Posted (edited)

Player / Team Stats - Weighted Composite Score

Rnd 19, 2019  - Saints vs Demons (Marvel)

image.png.c106f9a87bf1f21b2d5a6d911b367a04.png

Statistically our 2nd worst team performance for the year, only bettered in Rnd 6 vs the Tiges where we put the cue in the rack early and pretty much played the game in our defensive half, giving up the forward half to the Tiges to flip the ball around and set up their multiple forays inside 50.  Goody prevented a blow out by bottling up the back half so i guess we achieved something.  I'm guessing he was looking to limit the damage then reset during the 10 day break.

Here are the stats from Rnd 6 vs the Tiges......

image.png.e37f2b0698d807f32e440cc75b602429.png

 

And from our previous encounter against the the Saints in Round 5.  A much better standard / output statistically but the same result.  No doubt the Saints were traveling better at this point also...

image.png.5ddac6d2aca11a10fbddb4dccf985f67.png

 

Edited by Rusty Nails

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Player / Team Stats Form Guide

To Rnd 19, 2019 vs Season 2018

image.thumb.png.e17d773dea8139ce540c95044ec89678.png

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Got to look at Viney Brayshaw and Jones WTF is going on. Maybe the coach has lost them!

A cliff like fall in stats. Got to be a rational explaination

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Some stats which catch my eye:

  • 2nd for inside 50s 
  • 4th for inside 50 differential (i.e. only three clubs get more ball inside their forward 50 compared to their opponent than we do)
  • 4th for clearance differential
  • 14th for rebound 50s
  • 17th in opposition rebound 50s 
  • 17th in rebound 50s differential

Validates what we're seeing on the ground. Too many entries inside 50 are wasted - they're not marked (TMac, Weideman struggling, Melksham and J Smith not playing, Fritsch not playing forward) and when they hit the ground we can't lock it in (Spargo, Garlett and ANB all struggling, Lockhart playing in fits and starts).

I am of the view that the stats relating to rebound 50s derive significantly from the stats relating to inside 50s - I would like to see a stat showing how often our opponents' scoring chains start from within our forward 50 or forward half. 

Interestingly though, this is not how we lost vs St Kilda. Though I've still not seen the game, we had fewer inside 50s than the Saints and I understand we were turning it over a lot in our back half, rather than our forward half. Not sure if that signifies a change in how we tried to play (which we obviously failed at) or not.

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On 7/29/2019 at 11:27 AM, Kent said:

Got to look at Viney Brayshaw and Jones WTF is going on. Maybe the coach has lost them!

A cliff like fall in stats. Got to be a rational explaination

Wondering if there's some drop in enthusiasm from the old captain other than father time given the pay negotiations.

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Posted (edited)

Player / Team Stats Form Guide

(Composite Weighted Averages)

Rnds 17 to 19, 2019  vs  Season 2018

image.png.2e49b224a9af50149d35a4e9472b2a63.png

Edited by Rusty Nails

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I have been thinking about our injury list and also about the importance of continuity - playing games together. One of the things that makes successful teams successful is playing together, knowing what your teammates are going to do, knowing their running patterns etc. So I wanted to look at what our "playing 22" was since Goodwin took over.

This is the team which have played the most games 2017-19 for the Dees. For reference the starting 18 have played more than 42 games (Fritch 42), the bench more than 36 and the emergencies more than 24. The total number of games they could have played is 66 - well done Clarry for playing all and Trac for only missing 1. 

image.png.028a2e532c9effacc82648f9fbfdd065.png

Of note here is that this year, 13 of these 'best' 18 players have played more than 15 games. While Jetta and Melksham have missed due to injury, O Mac and Lewis have missed due to form. Of the 26, Vince, Tyson and Hogan have left, Hannan, Garlett, Spargo, Weideman have all missed through a mixture of injury and form and J Wagner has played 12 games.

I was surprised at through the years that J Wagner seemed to be the 23-26 player called on to play. We talk about the lack of depth the Dees have, and it is interesting because we don't really have a reliable 23-26 players. Really the 2 names that came up on the interchange / emergency list year by year without a valid reason (e.g. Hogan due to leaving/injury) was Josh Wagner and Billy Stretch. If you isolate this year alone, it is Corey Wagner and Oskar Baker who are the 23-26 players (Garlett and Jetta were the other 2). 

It was interesting looking back year on year 2014-2019 that the 'core' didn't really change. This is the team that has played the most games from 2014-19. 

B    Jetta    O McDonald    Watts    
HB    Salem    Frost    Vince    
C    Tyson    Viney    Brayshaw    
R    Gawn    Oliver    Jones    
HF    Petracca    Hogan    Harmes    
F    Garlett    McDonald    Neal-Bullen    
Int    Hunt    Hibberd    Pedersen    Lewis
Em.  Melksham    Kent    Stretch    Howe

You see similar names across the lines with only 4 names changing. When you just isolate Goodwin coaching, you have Hannan (19th most games), Weideman (26), J Wagner (27) and Spargo (28) who have now become 'regulars' with Watts, Pedersen, Kent, and Howe playing more games for the Dees than this quartet if you go back to 2014. 

What does this all tell me? It tells me that another 12 months down the track we have a core of about 16 players that will have played more than 80 games together and that is nothing to sneer at. Week in week out we have been one of the competitions least experienced sides. As we grow over the next 12 months, these games together should help with some of the connection issues.

Names not in that group include May and Lever who we know are already having a great influence on the team, as well as guys like Weideman, Hore, Petty, KK, Spargo who have all shown signs. 

The other thing that we need though is a reduction in injuries to our players. Isolating 'most played' 18 over the past 3 years and games missed, there are too many in the double digits which has hurt us (Viney, Brayshaw, Melksham, Jetta, Hibberd, Gawn) both on the field, and also with the game plan. Everytime that someone goes down, a member of this team is often played out of position to try and cover them. 

image.png.f91f3c380fecf4167e594e088fa00b77.png

So, is this year down to not getting the cattle on the park or the cattle not being fit? This is the most played 26 this year as well as games played. 

image.png.994b51d59998cf47d5002f970731ee58.png

This then made me think, while we have lost a lot of games to injury, how many have we lost to the main players playing? Is it more than last year? Well we had 83 games of injuries lost to our 'most playing 22' last year and 84 to our 'most playing 22' this year. 

What I did notice, was that the experience of the 22 running out on the park each week was below that of 2018. Last year the players in our most often played 22 included: 

2018: Vince, Spargo, Tyson, Garlett, Hogan, Hannan, Jetta compared to our most often this year 2019: Petty, Viney, Lockhart, Hunt, Wagner, Hore, Weideman. 

Commentators talk about the importance of the bottom 6 of your side, and this year, our bottom 6 has been very young, very inexperienced, and often not very good. 

What I am hoping for in 2020 is that players like May, Lever, Jetta are among the most games played in our side (who knows, maybe even KK and Weid), and guys like Melksham and McDonald are playing more games. I actually think our best 22 is very good. We saw it in 2018 and we've seen glimpses of it in 2019. Now is the time to make sure everyone is right for 2020, bring in 1-2 players who can be automatic best 22 (Anderson, Langdon), get our backline out on the park (May, Lever, Jetta),  get our guns firing again (looking at you Brayshaw) and hopefully Weid takes another step forward. 

Because if you are replacing our 'most played 22' with May, Lever, Jetta, Anderson, Langdon for guys like (no offence intended) Lockhart, J Wagner, Petty, O Mac, Lewis - things start to look a little more rosie.

If you want the excel - PM me. 

image.png

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Interesting analysis, Mr Licious.

what is also of interest is when they have missed.  The key backs all out at the same time, the forward line now vacant...  if you miss one from the starting best 6 on a line, you should have line coverage.  When you have May, Lever, Jetta Out at once, or TMac, Weids and Garlett Out at the same time, it stretches beyond best 26.  All of a sudden Fritsch is in the backline, Omac is left to lose all confidence.

the consistency principle you suggest is one I agree with.  We need it in each line, as well as across the squad.

so if we take this forward, and we have a relatively uninterrupted preseason, then we should be getting to that point (numbers of games) where it should work for us.  Improving 23-28 on the list looks critical to our success.

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On 7/18/2019 at 7:58 AM, Rusty Nails said:

After watching Billy pretty carefully in some of his games DP i've found he isn't willing to pull the trigger much, tends to take the easy lateral or backward short options on disposal and pretty ordinary in front of the sticks when he gets the opp also.  In addition he is yet another poor exponent of overhead/contested marking IMO and we already have enough of those.  Rarely if ever marks inside 50 also although maybe he doesn't go inside all that often.  I would be surprised if that is the case though.

A non-impact but clean (low risk) player who refuses to take the game on and utilise the bit of speed he has.  Works hard to get into space for the easy receive with the leg work but that's about where it ends for mine.

If we are to improve as a club and get anywhere near silverware in our life times i really don't think there's a place for the likes of a B.S. other than as a depth option who mostly playes (quite well) for Casey with the occasional call up when our stocks are very low.

Its hard to pull the trigger when Billy hasn't had any consecutive games (until this year) in the seniors since round 1 to 5 I think 2017. (I stand to be corrected though) How can you build confidence if that's the case. It's clear that the current coaching staff have zero confidence in him & IMO underrate what he brings....never shirks an issue, tackles hard, runs harder than most & never looks for an easy kick (something our current captains can learn from)

Plenty of non-impact players at the Dee's at the moment RN & I'd be happy to make a list for you?  At least with Stretch, & others like JKH & C Wagner etc, the effort is there & if you observe his numbers both at senior level & at Casey, I think you will find they are better than most. Maybe you'd prefer a senior player who just won't tackle, has an average or 7 turnovers a game & runs around the back of players to get an easy kick?

My nephew, who goes to the club training sessions regularly says Stretch is universally loved by all players because of his accountability, work rate & team first habits. The fact that the coaches want 22 bulls playing every week, is unfortunate for Stretch & he'd be better off finding a more welcoming environment & a club that might give him a go.

If the club is going to get 'anywhere near silverware', as you say, they've got far bigger pending issues than whether to p[lay BS or not. Maybe sorting our whether or not the current 22 actually have any care for one another, whether the coaches have an alternative game plan & for the likes of Viney, Jones, Lewis, & co to show any form of leadership.

I must say it was nice for JKH to get a run & perform well last night v Richmond. His speed, run & carry was exciting & something that has been clearly lacking the last 6-8 weeks. 20 disposals @ 80% efficiency is evidence that he should be out there.....

 

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, Laughing Goat said:

Its hard to pull the trigger when Billy hasn't had any consecutive games (until this year) in the seniors since round 1 to 5 I think 2017. (I stand to be corrected though) How can you build confidence if that's the case. It's clear that the current coaching staff have zero confidence in him & IMO underrate what he brings....never shirks an issue, tackles hard, runs harder than most & never looks for an easy kick (something our current captains can learn from)

Plenty of non-impact players at the Dee's at the moment RN & I'd be happy to make a list for you?  At least with Stretch, & others like JKH & C Wagner etc, the effort is there & if you observe his numbers both at senior level & at Casey, I think you will find they are better than most. Maybe you'd prefer a senior player who just won't tackle, has an average or 7 turnovers a game & runs around the back of players to get an easy kick?

My nephew, who goes to the club training sessions regularly says Stretch is universally loved by all players because of his accountability, work rate & team first habits. The fact that the coaches want 22 bulls playing every week, is unfortunate for Stretch & he'd be better off finding a more welcoming environment & a club that might give him a go.

If the club is going to get 'anywhere near silverware', as you say, they've got far bigger pending issues than whether to p[lay BS or not. Maybe sorting our whether or not the current 22 actually have any care for one another, whether the coaches have an alternative game plan & for the likes of Viney, Jones, Lewis, & co to show any form of leadership.

I must say it was nice for JKH to get a run & perform well last night v Richmond. His speed, run & carry was exciting & something that has been clearly lacking the last 6-8 weeks. 20 disposals @ 80% efficiency is evidence that he should be out there.....

 

 

 

 

Agree re JKH getting a go LG.  Stretch is better than a few others running around out there as you say.  But unfortunately some won't make the grade, assuming we want to make it to the main event.  If not then just keep on keeping on with the NQRs and we'll never get the elusive silverware and fab players like Maxy, Clarry and Harmes's careers will be [censored] down the toilet.

Our ladder position pretty much tells the tale.  List needs a major overhaul if we are to take advantage of the likes of Maxy, Clarry, Salem and start kicking some decent "winning" scores.

If May, Lever, Hore, Jetta and Frost fire up without injuries next year we'll do ok down back.   No issues there.  Need some quality run, speed and finish on the outside.  An accurate KF who can clunk regular marks and a couple of quality small forwards which we are desperately missing ATM.

I wont go in to game style and coaching issues which i've covered infinitum already.  Nothing we say here will change the leopard in the coaching box anyway.  They have their own style and methods.  We'll just have to suck it up for the next year and see what happens.

Edited by Rusty Nails
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Posted (edited)

Player / Team Stats - Weighted Composite Score

Rnd 20, 2019  - Demons vs Tigers (MCG)

 

image.png.474d28a6742c6d21ed64da15c38e997e.png

# Hit outs to advantage not accounted for

 

 

Edited by Rusty Nails
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Posted (edited)

Player / Team Stats Form Guide

(Composite Weighted Averages)

To Rnd 20, 2019 vs Season 2018

image.thumb.png.e6571b522665dccb4166d5923e27de96.png

image.thumb.png.e98dd76060dffe26573b03bf64948249.png

Edited by Rusty Nails

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@Dee-licious - sterling work! I looked to message you but couldnt - would love a link to your spreadsheet. well done and thanks very much.

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4 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

Player / Team Stats - Weighted Composite Score

Rnd 20, 2019  - Demons vs Tigers (MCG)

 

image.png.474d28a6742c6d21ed64da15c38e997e.png

# Hit outs to advantage not accounted for

 

 

So Clarrie is 100 times better than Corey?  I know it doesnt work that way, but fair enough for mine...

Thanks Rusty, always interesting to review.  On the plus side, Clarrie and Gawn.  When you think that bustling Braydon was brought in to do more than just tap the ball, his score shows he was 5% of big Max in value, and perhaps the biggest fail. 

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9 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

Player / Team Stats Form Guide

(Composite Weighted Averages)

To Rnd 20, 2019 vs Season 2018

image.thumb.png.e6571b522665dccb4166d5923e27de96.png

image.thumb.png.e98dd76060dffe26573b03bf64948249.png

Again Look at Viney Jones and Brayshaw 

What is going on with these guys? Have the given up? Are there issues between players? Something is not right> 

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10 hours ago, buck_nekkid said:

So Clarrie is 100 times better than Corey?  I know it doesnt work that way, but fair enough for mine...

Thanks Rusty, always interesting to review.  On the plus side, Clarrie and Gawn.  When you think that bustling Braydon was brought in to do more than just tap the ball, his score shows he was 5% of big Max in value, and perhaps the biggest fail. 

Unfortunately Corey had only 6 effective disposals and that was offset by 8 turnovers Buck.  So a negative net result on that side. He did lay 5 tackles and kicked a goal which is a good effort.

However zero clearances and one percenters might inidicate he didn't impact much with pressure elsewhere or with his ability to get to many coal face ground ball contests.  Alternatively this may have been the result of the task/role he was asked to play on the night.  Nuances which are often missed within statistics.

Keep in mind like all such models there is a fair degree of subjectivity.  I destest turnover kings and punish them accordingly with a negative factor included as part of the player's overall net weighted score.  When you are looking at Clarry's score it is constructed using the exact same weighting method as Corey's which means all his crazy handball turnovers (and any others) are captured.  So yes your eyes are not deceiving you.  Clarry is that good he more than makes up for the turnover factor with his general 'other' work and output.

I'm afraid Pruess has been found out as not ready at this level yet in the last two matches he has played.  I think his ruck work in the middle is actually not bad.  Around the ground he is bog ordinary.  Clunking his marking attempts more often would help his confidence a little as well. Some major work required in the off season for the big fella if he is to make it at this level me thinks.

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4 hours ago, Kent said:

Again Look at Viney Jones and Brayshaw 

What is going on with these guys? Have the given up? Are there issues between players? Something is not right> 

Commitment has ebbed away coinciding with issues around the Jones negotiations maybe Kent.  Once that starts happening a few others begin to ask why also.  If 'we' know there's supposedly a bit of an issue then you can bet the leadership group knew ages ago.

The rest of the players down the line gradually learning or hearing the rumours not long afterwards.

It's the sort of thing that can destroy a club.  Jnr Mac treatment a classic example.  Jones was of course playing when all that went down as well.

Let's hope history isn't repeating itself in a similar fashion down at demon HQ.

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    THE RETRO ROUND by George on the Outer

    We have seen it all before… Yes, a wonderful idea to showcase what used to be in football.  Big crowds, umpires who knew how to apply the rules and not opinions, high marks, skilful players. But for the Melbourne supporters their retro is what it has been like for the past 10 years. Losing games, end on end, year after year.  Opportunities squandered in front of goal. VFL standard players running around at the MCG. Just more of the same, and the game against Collingwood was no ex

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    THE PEOPLE SPEAK by The Demonland Crew

    Thanks to Demonlanders for their input into this week’s preview. Ralphius Maximus is short and bittersweet: We'll crack in at the bounce to create a contest, win our share of the ball, butcher the forward movement and get scored on easily from the intercepts. Not that hard to predict. Big Demon says: Unfortunately Collingwood will win because they have a lot more to play for. We will be good in parts but really the season is well over so we will have to put up with those bell

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

    WHAT, NO BLOOD? by George on the Outer

    The feeling when turning up to the MCG on a Saturday night to play a top four side in Richmond, while the Melbourne sits cemented in close proximity to the bottom of the table is like attending the Colosseum in Ancient Roman times. The expectation is that a bloodbath is about to occur. There are 100,000 Richmond members and 50,000 Melbourne members, and despite the fact that it turned out to be a wet night after half-time, a crowd of only 37K bothered to turn up. That should never have happ

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

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