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Stats-file 2019

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Posted (edited)

Demonland’s 2019 Home of Stats

A bad time to get the ball rolling on 2019’s stats-file (and an obviously small sample) but hopefully we can keep this thread free of the usual so and so. Yes, stats never tell the full story. Yes, we all have eyes and can see what’s unfolding on the field. Yes, there’s only one stat that matter at the end of the day. But they can be a useful predictor to note trends and see which way things might be heading. Facebook isn’t worth $500 billion because of its advertising.

Where there’s a negative stat – e.g. tackles against – it’s ranked in order of desirability; 18th being the most tackles against.

Clearances – 1st

Centre Clearances – 1st

Contested Possessions – 2nd

Tackles – 2nd

Inside 50 – 5th

Tackles i-50 – 1st

 

CP Against – 18th

Tackles against – 18th

Uncontested Possessions – 18th

UP Against – 14th

 

Disposal Efficiency – 16th

Turnovers – 17th

Intercepts – 17th

Clangers – 13th

 

Contested Marks – 18th

CM against – 9th

Marks i-50 – 9th

 

Notes: The three teams with the least number of kicks are the bottom three teams – the only such reliable indicator. Port and Geelong are 2nd and 3rd for clearances (and 1st and 4th for contested) but we’re only 12th for clearances against – indicating they could both well be particularly strong in this area. Both finished in the top six for contested and clearances last year.

Summary: Despite not yet fully firing, the footy department would be pleased we’re still leading our key stat departments: contested, clearances, tackles. The decent number of inside-50 marks and tackles is a surprise (the latter perhaps highlighting our lack of crumb). We’re also forcing a contested battle as evidenced by the number of contested possessions and tackles against.

Our skills are clearly letting us down though – with high turnovers, intercepts against and poor efficiency. We’re not a big uncontested possession team (9th last year) but ranking dead last is an issue – bombing forward and lacking or not finding run/options. Goodwin: we need better connection and to get the fundamentals (skill execution) right. We are no doubt still rusty.

Also of concern, last year we were 2nd for contested marks and 3rd for intercepts – now bottom two for both. With Pedo and Hogan gone, Max struggling to get off the ground, Tmac out of sorts and Lever on the sidelines, we’re getting beaten in the air. Lever, Lewis and Smith were also among our top five intercepters last year – as well as Jetta who is well down on form.

Next up: the Bombers are in the bottom-five for just about every category bar contested marks and clearances, both 7th, but interestingly they are last for centre-clearances and second for stoppages. Our previous two contests have been uneven affairs due to us having an extra day's rest on short-turnarounds – so I don’t think much can be read into the stats there.

Go Dees!

 

 

 

 

Edited by Skuit
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Posted (edited)

Stats Predictor has the Bombers winning by 10 Points

 

Top 6 ranked players (weighted statistical composite) last round

              Demons                                          Bombers

image.png.b5122bfe6476a8db1b6b52c1736a716b.pngimage.png.4142b41b8b792b653108b2c6a938ebc7.png

Bottom 6

              Demons                                         Bombers

image.png.e5f52b34c00259d8d3b6c5c3ad5dae31.pngimage.png.1ab2c2e7bb81337a9b08a925d2197241.png

Note:  Composite does not account for hit outs to advantage.

Edited by Rusty Nails
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Opposition goal-scoring strike rates in 2019:

  • Essendon - 20 goals from 53 entries, which is a 37.7% strike rate
  • Geelong - 20 goals, 48 entries, 41.7%
  • Port - 12 goals, 59 entries, 20.3%

Opposition overall scoring strike rates in 2019:

  • Essendon - 30 shots, 53 entries, 57%
  • Geelong - 26 shots, 48 entries, 54%
  • Port Adelaide - 27 shots, 59 entries, 46%

So pretty much we're conceding a score every second time our opponent gets inside our defensive 50 and a goal every third time.

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3 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Opposition goal-scoring strike rates in 2019:

  • Essendon - 20 goals from 53 entries, which is a 37.7% strike rate
  • Geelong - 20 goals, 48 entries, 41.7%
  • Port - 12 goals, 59 entries, 20.3%

Opposition overall scoring strike rates in 2019:

  • Essendon - 30 shots, 53 entries, 57%
  • Geelong - 26 shots, 48 entries, 54%
  • Port Adelaide - 27 shots, 59 entries, 46%

So pretty much we're conceding a score every second time our opponent gets inside our defensive 50 and a goal every third time.

Worst defensive side in the league. 

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Posted (edited)

Top 6 ranked players (weighted statistical composite) Rnd 3 vs The Bombers...

image.png.5f308dd63d01409ee29a619d99ceafc8.png

Bottom 6 ranked players...

image.png.8837f917ef2bdcdda71ba84f9c9e4cd2.png

Note:  Composite does not account for hit outs to advantage.

Edited by Rusty Nails

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Posted (edited)

Normally i would not post any weighted average rankings till at least round 6 as the amount of data to go on just isn't robust enough.  And in this case the same principle applies so best not to take too much notice of the table below, especially with some players having played only one match and others coming in under done etc. 

However, thought i'd go a tad early due to the less than stellar beginning to get a very rough idea where some players are at, even at this premature phase, versus their entire 2018 season averages.  Will revisit this again after Rnd 6 vs 2018 and also compare the block of 3 games from tomorrow evening through to the Tigers and compare percentage & rank changes vs the first 3 rounds.

Whoever it was in the press who said Clarry (among others) is a bit off, needs to have a rethink IMHO.  May be a tad up and down (who isn't / wasn't in the first 3 rounds) but over the 3 matches so far he has started pretty much exactly where he left off in 2018, and that after surgery on both shoulders! 

This is the stuff legends are made of....get around him boys!  Premierships are won off the back of great players with courage such as Clarry, as long as everyone pulls in the same direction (and most gaping holes filled with solid recruiting!).   Carn the Mighty Demons!

image.png.dc42facb92b86276e2e58ea2f5f2f1bc.png

Note:  Big M's stats do not include hit outs to advantage.  His ranking would obviously be altered if there was some way of including this stat specific to ruck work only.

Edited by Rusty Nails
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Thanks Rusty, always appreciate your stats.  I know it’s early, but a few surprises emerging.  Clarry doing well.  Viney, TMac Hibbard and Trac all trending the wrong way...

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On 4/2/2019 at 2:09 AM, Rusty Nails said:

Stats Predictor has the Bombers winning by 10 Points

 

Not a bad effort Rusty. Do I want to know what it predicts for this week?

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8 minutes ago, Skuit said:

Not a bad effort Rusty. Do I want to know what it predicts for this week?

🏼 cheers Skuit and Buck.  I took a sneak peak straight after the Swans match ....lets just say it wasnt exactly warming 🙈  Although they were playing the Blues so maybe, just maybe, things are out of whack on their numbers.

I'll try and adjust for Ins / Outs (where possible) after tonight's announcements before hitting the prediction button and posting on here.

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Thanks for your effort.

Our engine room is firing based on those stats but the clearance and transition rates are a major indictment on the midfield group. It goes to show that winning the ball isn't enough: using an old cliche, you need to run both ways.

The value of your clearances and ability to score is only as strong as your ability to defend. TBH there were more positives in our loss vs Geelong than against Essendon.

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13 minutes ago, praha said:

Thanks for your effort.

Our engine room is firing based on those stats but the clearance and transition rates are a major indictment on the midfield group. It goes to show that winning the ball isn't enough: using an old cliche, you need to run both ways.

The value of your clearances and ability to score is only as strong as your ability to defend. TBH there were more positives in our loss vs Geelong than against Essendon.

Such a complex and difficult game Praha.  Hoping it's more an under done fitness/tank issue that's impacting the defensive two way aspect.  The outs are definitely impacting also.  No point being too harsh at this point but at some stage those who seem to be way off it vs last year (trend wise) need to start lifting their output/form.  If we had a few more knocking on the door at Casey it might help also.

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40 minutes ago, Optimus D said:

Is there a fumble factor or ugly football factor in the realm of footy statistics.

Clangers and Turnovers would probably go some way towards it Optimus.  That's all we have at public level.  Champion data may have something more specific we aren't privy to.

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Stats Predictor has the Swans winning by 26 Points (excludes allowance for umpiring bias!).

Top 6 ranked players (weighted statistical composite) last round

                             Demons                                                           Swans

image.png.41684a2f5357046741499f56368de80e.pngimage.png.5601b0b09a9f8ec69ea7bad190b10209.png

Bottom 6

                            Demons                                                            Swans

image.png.e20fc200fe71f32ad7cc9e715b5780c5.pngimage.png.9f7d15b2a23f281f5e551ad5aa294932.png

*Omitted for Rnd 4 2019

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Probably belongs in the Clarry thread, but (courtesy of some twitterist named @sirswampthing):

Fewest career games to register 10 games of 20+ contested possessions

64 - Clayton Oliver
65 - Patrick Cripps
81 - Josh Kennedy
94 - Nat Fyfe
110 - Tom Mitchell

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43 minutes ago, Skuit said:

Probably belongs in the Clarry thread, but (courtesy of some twitterist named @sirswampthing):

Fewest career games to register 10 games of 20+ contested possessions

64 - Clayton Oliver
65 - Patrick Cripps
81 - Josh Kennedy
94 - Nat Fyfe
110 - Tom Mitchell

Exalted company no doubt A champion and we are so lucky to have Clarry and not a Parishioner!!

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Also, while I'm here, may as well add some other MFC-related tid-bits from this swamp guy.

Biggest hit-out differentials in a game - @AFL era

+66 - 2015 R12 - nth (89) v gws (23)
+60 - 2019 R04 - MELB (73) v SYD (13)
+59 - 2015 R09 - frem (86) v adel (27)
+56 - 2016 R09 - wce (71) v port (15)

Most recent MELB players to have 20+ disposals and 3+ goals in a game vs SYD

2019 R04 - NATHAN JONES
2007 R05- Aaron Davey
2000 R18 - Shane Woewodin
2000 R03 - Andrew Leoncelli
1993 R13 - Garry Lyon

Melb vs. Syd: the third time in past 3 years that sets of brothers from 3 different families have all played in the same V/@AFL game

2017 R18 ADEL v GEEL & 2018 R16 MELB v FREM being the others. The overall V/@AFL record for sets of brothers from different families playing is 5 (most recently in 1933).

 

 

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13 minutes ago, 58er said:

Exalted company no doubt A champion and we are so lucky to have Clarry and not a Parishioner!!

I put this one together a couple seasons back - with several players still current it needs an update if anyone can be bothered. Cripps may have entered the list by now as well. A fair few Brownlows among this crop.

The most contested possession across two games (career):

Patrick Dangerfield - 48 (2017; in career games 190/191)
Clayton Oliver - 46 (2017; in career games 30/31)
Josh Kennedy/Nat Fyfe - 46
Chris Judd - 44
Gary Ablett Jr. - 41
Dustin Martin/Jobe Watson - 40
Joel Selwood - 39
Dane Swan - 37
Trent Cotchin - 36

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8 minutes ago, Skuit said:

I put this one together a couple seasons back - with several players still current it needs an update if anyone can be bothered. Cripps may have entered the list by now as well. A fair few Brownlows among this crop.

The most contested possession across two games (career):

Patrick Dangerfield - 48 (2017; in career games 190/191)
Clayton Oliver - 46 (2017; in career games 30/31)
Josh Kennedy/Nat Fyfe - 46
Chris Judd - 44
Gary Ablett Jr. - 41
Dustin Martin/Jobe Watson - 40
Joel Selwood - 39
Dane Swan - 37
Trent Cotchin - 36

Go Clarry !!

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Round 5, 2019 Demons vs Saints MCG

Pure Stats Predictor has the Saints winning by 10 Points (includes best estimate for Ins/Outs)

Team weighted score Last Round prior to Ins/Outs....

Demons 53.93   Saints  61.10

                Top 6 ranked players (weighted statistical composite) last round

                             Demons                                                           Saints

image.png.8d06934da3d0b6a8e9b7a82a6ba63530.pngimage.png.8b4e2bf28eaabaf2715973d7b98185b6.png

                                                                  Bottom 6

                            Demons                                                            Saints

image.png.bf33bff2bdb03dfb6928b4b529189b2d.pngimage.png.921008336907b1d388188e9ce7338ef3.png

*Omitted this round (5) 2019

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2 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

Round 5, 2019 Demons vs Saints MCG

Pure Stats Predictor has the Saints winning by 10 Points (includes best estimate for Ins/Outs)

Team weighted score Last Round prior to Ins/Outs....

Demons 53.93   Saints  61.10

                Top 6 ranked players (weighted statistical composite) last round

                             Demons                                                           Saints

image.png.8d06934da3d0b6a8e9b7a82a6ba63530.pngimage.png.8b4e2bf28eaabaf2715973d7b98185b6.png

                                                                  Bottom 6

                            Demons                                                            Saints

image.png.bf33bff2bdb03dfb6928b4b529189b2d.pngimage.png.921008336907b1d388188e9ce7338ef3.png

*Omitted this round (5) 2019

Wow.  Our top 6 all score below any of their top 6.  That seems bizarre!

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, buck_nekkid said:

Wow.  Our top 6 all score below any of their top 6.  That seems bizarre!

Possibly an indicator of form ....or maybe not Buck.  The differing outcomes might also be a result of the quality of the opposition on the day/night in question. 

Other factors such as a high pressure match versus free flowing in the other etc.  Far from a perfect science especially using one set of numbers from one match to compare.  Comparing averages over 3 to 4 weeks probably a bit more robust.

P.S. Our bottom 6 are better!! :laugh:

Edited by Rusty Nails
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38 minutes ago, buck_nekkid said:

Wow.  Our top 6 all score below any of their top 6.  That seems bizarre!

The saints have won more games than us this year,  so far.   They have had better form.

But we are starting to move.

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Interesting stats posted on the AFL website in an article having a significant crack at us.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-04-22/stats-files-whos-become-the-poster-boy-for-dees-plight

Most interesting to me is the CP differential statistic. We were +17.7 in 2018 for CPs (i.e. we averaged 17.7 more CPs then our opposition).

This year we are -1.6.

Our "one wood" is to dominate CPs, get first touch on the ball and bully our opposition's midfield. When we do that, we get confidence, our opposition's midfield has less impact, and I reckon we find ourselves converting more inside 50s (last year we scored from 46.4% of our inside 50s, that figure is down to 33.7% this year).

We've built our list, and moulded our gameplan, around a starting fundamental of dominating CPs. We're not doing that this year and IMO many of the rest of our problems stem from this.

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Posted (edited)

I came across this last night. 

Scary reading as the problem is getting worse with each loss...

674DAF5C-FFEB-4EAB-80AD-7224A1D4B7A1.jpeg

Edited by Sir Why You Little
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