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Stats-file 2019


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3 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

That is correct LD ...our performance up forward has been diabolical so far and a player who dishes off with reasonable quality can't be expected to complete the good work further up the field.

I would like to see this same comparison if we were managing to hit the side of a barn door more often with shots at goal.

Better would be chains to inside 50.

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1 hour ago, buck_nekkid said:

Better would be chains to inside 50.

That article and Healy's explanation is just mash buck.  What constitutes a valid chain?  Where does it start and finish?  Does a scoring chain include both points and goals?  Assuming it includes points, does it also include rushed junk from spoils? Etc.

Clarry needs to clean up much of his work for sure but we can see that by observing.  Not sure if this is very revealing at all tbh.

Edited by Rusty Nails
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On ‎5‎/‎19‎/‎2019 at 3:59 PM, Rusty Nails said:

MFC Ave Kicking Efficiency Rankings to Rnd 9, 2019

image.png.7afcf17411ab713c25ba878e94d51b3d.png

 

Courtesy AFL Stats Pro:  Includes players who have played a minimum of 2 games

I always thought Jeffy and ANB were our worst kicks in the side, and now I know its true?

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1 minute ago, Demon Dude said:

I always thought Jeffy and ANB were our worst kicks in the side, and now I know its true?

Keep in mind that defenders generally have higher kicking efficiency than forwards. I suspect that's because they are kicking to more options as the ground ahead of them is wider. Forwards, on the other hand, have a narrowing ground and ultimately are penalised if they score a behind rather than a goal, even if the shot at goal is a snap under pressure or from the boundary line.

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Round 10, 2019  Demons vs Giants (MCG)

Pure Stats Predictor has the Giants winning by 65 points

Team weighted score from last round (including adjustment for Ins/Outs this round)

Demons  57.15     Giants  85.48

Top 6 ranked players (weighted statistical composite) last round

                    Demons                                          Giants

image.png.783ffebd85ac78feac4e31f2bd0f2c45.pngimage.png.6cb4d09c607223b03c07c48149196cbd.png

Aggregate:            23.85                                            34.10

                                             Bottom 6

image.png.a04403f4af41da4b00fdf62282beae85.pngimage.png.d3358392ffd11c1abb07282794669124.png

Aggregate:           8.03                                                     12.78

*Omitted for this match

Tip:  Use landscape mode if viewing from a mobile.

One of the biggest weighted team scores, top 6 and bottom 6 aggregate scores i've ever seen since compiling these over the last 3 years.  However, we know these figures are coming from a very one sided match against the lowly Blues.

What do we take from that?  Very hard to say but but what we can say is the last time we were coming in against a team coming off a match against the Blues the predictor had us losing by 22 points vs the Swans in Rnd 4.  We ended up winning away at the SCG by 26.  So lets say the predictor is off by the aggregate because of a very poor Blues outlier last week and we are 48 points the better (maximum optimism statistically!), we are effectively still down by 17 points.

So, not as bad as the above but suggests a loss is still (statistically) likely.  But as we know this is all historical and merely a snapshot in time.  And football matches are not won and lost on historical data.  It's 22 v 22 so we live in hope that we can bring home the bacon.  1 point ahead at the right time and our season's still alive!

Edited by Rusty Nails
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37 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

Round 10, 2019  Demons vs Giants (MCG)

Pure Stats Predictor has the Giants winning by 65 points

Team weighted score from last round (including adjustment for Ins/Outs this round)

Demons  57.15     Giants  85.48

Top 6 ranked players (weighted statistical composite) last round

                    Demons                                          Giants

image.png.783ffebd85ac78feac4e31f2bd0f2c45.pngimage.png.6cb4d09c607223b03c07c48149196cbd.png

Aggregate:            23.85                                            34.10

                                             Bottom 6

image.png.a04403f4af41da4b00fdf62282beae85.pngimage.png.d3358392ffd11c1abb07282794669124.png

Aggregate:           8.03                                                     12.78

*Omitted for this match

Tip:  Use landscape mode if viewing from a mobile.

One of the biggest weighted team scores, top 6 and bottom 6 aggregate scores i've ever seen since compiling these over the last 3 years.  However, we know these figures are coming from a very one sided match against the lowly Blues.

What do we take from that?  Very hard to say but but what we can say is the last time we were coming in against a team coming off a match against the Blues the predictor had us losing by 22 points vs the Swans in Rnd 4.  We ended up winning away at the SCG by 26.  So lets say the predictor is off by the aggregate because of a very poor Blues outlier last week and we are 48 points the better (maximum optimism statistically!), we are effectively still down by 17 points.

So, not as bad as the above but suggests a loss is still (statistically) likely.  But as we know this is all historical and merely a snapshot in time.  And football matches are not won and lost on historical data.  It's 22 v 22 so we live in hope that we can bring home the bacon.  1 point ahead at the right time and our season's still alive!

Be interesting to compare them from the week before (exclude the blues game as an anomaly) and see how we compare up.

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14 hours ago, buck_nekkid said:

Be interesting to compare them from the week before (exclude the blues game as an anomaly) and see how we compare up.

Good point buck!  If i had or find the time i might just do that.  I don't normally go back beyond the last week, as my aim is a crude  attempt to try and capture the opp's latest rough form (without spending hours on it doing last three round averages or whatever) but in this instance that seems a better alternative.

Edited by Rusty Nails
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Round 10, 2019  Demons vs Giants (MCG) - Version B

Pure Stats Predictor has the Giants winning by 4 points

Team weighted score from our last round and the Giant's previous round vs the Hawks

(including adjustment for Ins/Outs this round)

Demons  57.15     Giants  58.96

Following Buck's suggestion i have used the Giant's stats from their match two weeks ago against the Hawks at the G.  The Hawks being a team playing competitively at AFL level vs the Blues from last week (in the first predictor above) who obviously aren't.

A massive turnaround and to be expected given how bad the Blues are at this point.  Strap yourselves in folks...this one looks like it's going right down to the line...again!   COIN FLIP!

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On 5/25/2019 at 7:52 PM, Rusty Nails said:

Round 10, 2019  Demons vs Giants (MCG) - Version B

Pure Stats Predictor has the Giants winning by 4 points

Team weighted score from our last round and the Giant's previous round vs the Hawks

(including adjustment for Ins/Outs this round)

Demons  57.15     Giants  58.96

Following Buck's suggestion i have used the Giant's stats from their match two weeks ago against the Hawks at the G.  The Hawks being a team playing competitively at AFL level vs the Blues from last week (in the first predictor above) who obviously aren't.

A massive turnaround and to be expected given how bad the Blues are at this point.  Strap yourselves in folks...this one looks like it's going right down to the line...again!   COIN FLIP!

Thanks for running that, Rusty.  At 3 quarter time, version A was on the money.  We were nowhere good enough for version B, but it showed the influence of the blues game.

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40 minutes ago, buck_nekkid said:

Thanks for running that, Rusty.  At 3 quarter time, version A was on the money.  We were nowhere good enough for version B, but it showed the influence of the blues game.

Np worth a one off fling Buck.  Unfortunately as you say, the first usual method was more robust at reflecting the difference in form of both teams coming in.

What i learned from method B is we aren't a very good possession team (vs the Hawks) and Goody isn't Clarkson.  And two weeks is a long time in footy let alone one!

Clarkson the master at finding ways to defeat a tricky opponent on odd days.  I'm not sure why Goody didn't at least try and utilise what Clarko revealed against the Giants.  Nor the Port match against the Eagles (dirty flat quick ball method coming inside 50).

We also lacked any sort of intensity required (defensively) that the Hawks probably brought at the ball carrier when they didn't have possession against the Giants.  Was as feeble a 2.5 quarters as I've seen since approx 2015.  We regressed badly in this regard, yet again.

Edited by Rusty Nails
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On 4/23/2019 at 12:53 PM, Rusty Nails said:

Select Season Stat Rankings - 2018 v 2019 (inclusive to Rnd 5)

image.png.1a3c28559cc65e1aec8029722a482493.png

 

image.png.b8cd5a1a86124faed3bb41a1e2177cd1.png

Shows me the team is not working hard enough. Lloyd and Brown have both said it recently

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56 minutes ago, Kent said:

Shows me the team is not working hard enough. Lloyd and Brown have both said it recently

Yes it might be time to update that given we're another 10 rounds in.  I doubt we would see any improvements and have probably regressed further in some areas Kent.

There's been a fitness conditioning 'off' smell about most of the group all year.  Something seems amiss other than just off season surgeries for those that had them.

Edited by Rusty Nails
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11 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

Np worth a one off fling Buck.  Unfortunately as you say, the first usual method was more robust at reflecting the difference in form of both teams coming in.

What i learned from method B is we aren't a very good possession team (vs the Hawks) and Goody isn't Clarkson.  And two weeks is a long time in footy let alone one!

Clarkson the master at finding ways to defeat a tricky opponent on odd days.  I'm not sure why Goody didn't at least try and utilise what Clarko revealed against the Giants.  Nor the Port match against the Eagles (dirty flat quick ball method coming inside 50).

We also lacked any sort of intensity required (defensively) that the Hawks probably brought at the ball carrier when they didn't have possession against the Giants.  Was as feeble a 2.5 quarters as I've seen since approx 2015.  We regressed badly in this regard, yet again.

So true.  It felt like we really regressed, and I bet our numbers will show this.  We were poor by hand and foot, struggled to take a contested mark, and showed no defensive system that connected to anything forward of the ball.   Complete turn around from the Eagles game. Without Max in the first half, and Viney willing himself to every contest in the second and third, we would have been smashed - worse than we were.  Nothing learned, nothing executed.

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2 minutes ago, buck_nekkid said:

So true.  It felt like we really regressed, and I bet our numbers will show this.  We were poor by hand and foot, struggled to take a contested mark, and showed no defensive system that connected to anything forward of the ball.   Complete turn around from the Eagles game. Without Max in the first half, and Viney willing himself to every contest in the second and third, we would have been smashed - worse than we were.  Nothing learned, nothing executed.

That is what disturbs me most of all. The same problems  displayed in every game.

The players are not learning anything nor are the coaches able to address and  impact the problems.

There is more to this perhaps than we are being told. Its incomprehensible that we haven't improved over the season. Anyway there is no longer an imperative  to win games  in my view. I would like to see them coached and play to a game plan that suits our talent and hopefully we are ready next season.

I  also wouldn't be bothered bringing anyone back too soon, just no point. Another wasted season Ho Humm.

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Round 11, 2019  Demons vs Crows (TIO)

Pure Stats Predictor has the Crows winning by 26 points

Team weighted score from last round (including adjustment for Ins/Outs this round)

Demons  53.52     Giants  64.64

Top 6 ranked players (weighted statistical composite) last round

                    Demons                                          Crows

image.png.5605c740946f8922718a06f5ca724d25.pngimage.png.c90399534e45747215601cc28bd2e21a.png

Aggregate:               20.98                                        29.05

                                                Bottom 6

image.png.b1b4798fe11a279efa58b105c8fcb8f9.pngimage.png.c1f0f2fd3e7ec1f64add3674edd87584.png

*Omitted for this match

Tip:  Use landscape mode if viewing from a mobile.

Back to the standard method after an attempt at a variation (option B) last week failed abysmally.

Would have given us a very very slim chance this week IF we were to hold it together through the mid field and bring what we brought in the final quarter last week for most of this match as the Crows were less efficient last week than we were up forward.  If you can believe it! (see below)

However this optimism was quickly squashed as soon as i realised the likes of Spargo had been given another game, ahead of Pruess, and the bog ordinary Fritschkreig is more than likely to be played in a defensive role for some unbeknown reason ...again.  We are effectively two men short so forget everything i just said.  And no, not having a go at Spargo & Fritschkreig.  This has come about through poor recruiting catching up with us (lack of depth) and Goody's inability/refusal to recognise that the latter is not a defender's bootlace (at this point).  Shown some promise up forward though! :ph34r:  Actually make that almost three men down...i just recalled Garlett is still a shadow of his 2019 self and even that was just ok.

image.png.96daf48c368f3c4f4ed73d35d14fde24.png

Edited by Rusty Nails
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1 hour ago, Rusty Nails said:

Round 11, 2019  Demons vs Crows (TIO)

Pure Stats Predictor has the Crows winning by 26 points

Team weighted score from last round (including adjustment for Ins/Outs this round)

Demons  53.52     Giants  64.64

Top 6 ranked players (weighted statistical composite) last round

                    Demons                                          Crows

image.png.5605c740946f8922718a06f5ca724d25.pngimage.png.c90399534e45747215601cc28bd2e21a.png

Aggregate:               20.98                                        29.05

                                                Bottom 6

image.png.b1b4798fe11a279efa58b105c8fcb8f9.pngimage.png.c1f0f2fd3e7ec1f64add3674edd87584.png

*Omitted for this match

Tip:  Use landscape mode if viewing from a mobile.

Back to the standard method after an attempt at a variation (option B) last week failed abysmally.

Would have given us a very very slim chance this week IF we were to hold it together through the mid field and bring what we brought in the final quarter last week for most of this match as the Crows were less efficient last week than we were up forward.  If you can believe it! (see below)

However this optimism was quickly squashed as soon as i realised the likes of Spargo had been given another game, ahead of Pruess, and the bog ordinary Fritschkreig is more than likely to be played in a defensive role for some unbeknown reason ...again.  We are effectively two men short so forget everything i just said.  And no, not having a go at Spargo & Fritschkreig.  This has come about through poor recruiting catching up with us (lack of depth) and Goody's inability/refusal to recognise that the latter is not a defender's bootlace (at this point).  Shown some promise up forward though! :ph34r:  Actually make that almost three men down...i just recalled Garlett is still in and a shadow of his 2019 self and even that was just ok.

image.png.96daf48c368f3c4f4ed73d35d14fde24.png

Where can i find the Pure stats predictor Rusty?

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9 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

Round 11, 2019  Demons vs Crows (TIO)

Pure Stats Predictor has the Crows winning by 26 points

Team weighted score from last round (including adjustment for Ins/Outs this round)

Demons  53.52     Giants  64.64

Top 6 ranked players (weighted statistical composite) last round

                    Demons                                          Crows

image.png.5605c740946f8922718a06f5ca724d25.pngimage.png.c90399534e45747215601cc28bd2e21a.png

Aggregate:               20.98                                        29.05

                                                Bottom 6

image.png.b1b4798fe11a279efa58b105c8fcb8f9.pngimage.png.c1f0f2fd3e7ec1f64add3674edd87584.png

*Omitted for this match

Tip:  Use landscape mode if viewing from a mobile.

Back to the standard method after an attempt at a variation (option B) last week failed abysmally.

Would have given us a very very slim chance this week IF we were to hold it together through the mid field and bring what we brought in the final quarter last week for most of this match as the Crows were less efficient last week than we were up forward.  If you can believe it! (see below)

However this optimism was quickly squashed as soon as i realised the likes of Spargo had been given another game, ahead of Pruess, and the bog ordinary Fritschkreig is more than likely to be played in a defensive role for some unbeknown reason ...again.  We are effectively two men short so forget everything i just said.  And no, not having a go at Spargo & Fritschkreig.  This has come about through poor recruiting catching up with us (lack of depth) and Goody's inability/refusal to recognise that the latter is not a defender's bootlace (at this point).  Shown some promise up forward though! :ph34r:  Actually make that almost three men down...i just recalled Garlett is still a shadow of his 2019 self and even that was just ok.

image.png.96daf48c368f3c4f4ed73d35d14fde24.png

Please DO NOT run option B.  Simply not worth it.  I am hoping that the three inclusions have a big impact, and that Mr hyphen leading their points who played out of the box goes back to normal bog ordinary.  Might smooth things out a bit.  Charlie Spargo - Mr 1.45.  Rush him straight in.

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14 hours ago, Win4theAges said:

Where can i find the Pure stats predictor Rusty?

Just a little spreadsheet i put together a few seasons back W4TA.  Allows me to look at a week in isolation against other teams from previous week's performance which i use for the Stats Predictor.

Also how the boys are tracking vs each other using composite averages over any designated block of rounds.

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10 hours ago, buck_nekkid said:

Please DO NOT run option B.  Simply not worth it.  I am hoping that the three inclusions have a big impact, and that Mr hyphen leading their points who played out of the box goes back to normal bog ordinary.  Might smooth things out a bit.  Charlie Spargo - Mr 1.45.  Rush him straight in.

No harm in trying Buck but yeh won't be running that variation again.

The 3 ins are included in the above predictor using their average composites from this season and last year's season average for Hannan.  It's about as accurate as i can get it for this purpose.

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Round 12, 2019  Pies vs Demons (MCG Big Freeze 5)

Pure Stats Predictor has the Demons winning by 17 points

Team weighted score from last round (including adjustment for Ins/Outs this round)

Pies  60.45     Demons  67.92

Top 6 ranked players (composite weighted averages) last round

                          Pies                                            Demons

image.png.0131af05453abece064f3fcc70ff6a80.pngimage.png.90bd53cc9e34cdab25dc69d708b3599a.png

Aggregate:                 24.30                                             29.18

                                                 Bottom 6

image.png.8c393d03288a515aec525b368d190a8b.pngimage.png.17230e344711f33ba55d53ba72762f0e.png

*Omitted for this match

Tip:  Use landscape mode if viewing from a mobile phone.

Last week's performance was statistically our best 'Team' game for the year and only 3.4% off our 2018 average weighted score (69.53)!  Obviously our inaccurate kicking for goal was the difference and the Crows were super accurate (70% conversion is off the charts) but that was it.

The Pies appear to be a fair way off their best footy earlier in the year and we are coming into some decent form with some very solid 'Ins'.  Spargo and Baker will need to lift on last week's performance if we are to win though IMO.  If they put in a similar or worse one then the Pies might get a little closer.  I'm not sure where Lockhart is at by i would much prefer to have him in ahead of Spargo who needs a long stint at Casey.

The only other thing stopping us at this point is accuracy in front of goals.  We at least lowered our vision more often last week.

Harmes to Pendles pls...and IF we can improve our accuracy up forward then everything is pointing to a happy ending prior to the bye.

Edited by Rusty Nails
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  • Latest Podcast      

    PODCAST: Rd 02 vs Hawthorn

    The boys dissected the clinical thrashing of Hawks praising the immense performance of Christian Petracca whilst lamenting the injury toll to our defensive unit ... LISTEN

    Demonland | March 26

  • Training  

    Monday, 25th March 2024

    Demonland Trackwatchers Demon Dynasty & Kev Martin were trackside at Gosch's Paddock today to bring you their observations from training ... READ MORE

    Demonland | March 25

  • Casey Report      

    HIBERNATING by KC from Casey

    When they locked up the rooms for summer at the end of last year’s football season, the rooms gathered cobwebs, the atmosphere became dense and the place developed a sleepy feel. They opened up the rooms to let Casey out to play on Sunday but the team was still hibernating and they missed the bulk of the opening quarter ... READ MORE

    Demonland | March 25

  • PreGame      

    PREGAME: Rd 03 vs Port Adelaide

    The Demons head out on the road for the next 2 weeks as they travel to Adelaide to play Port on Saturday and then have a 5 Day break before facing the Crows in Gather Round. With injuries to May and Lever who comes in and who goes out? ...READ MORE

    Demonland | March 28

  • Match Report      

    A FORK IN THE HAWK by George on the Outer

    For too long in the past, Demon fans became habitually sick and tired of watching the Hawks hand out thrashings to their side. But Melbourne’s empahtic 55-point win at the MCG on Saturday has truly put a fork in the Hawk and turned that history well and truly on its head ... READ MORE

    Demonland | March 23

  • Post Game      

    POSTGAME: Rd 02 vs Hawthorn

    The Demons cruised to an easy 55 point win over the Hawks at the MCG but but paid a heavy toll on the injury front with Steven May & Jake Lever possibly sidelined for a number of weeks ...READ MORE

    Demonland | March 23

  • Votes      

    VOTES: Rd 02 vs Hawthorn

    Last week Steven May took the lead in the Demonland Player of the Year Award from Jack Viney. Clayton Oliver & Max Gawn round out the Top 4. Your votes for the win/loss against/to the Hawks. 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 ...READ MORE

    Demonland | March 23

  • Game Day      

    GAMEDAY: Round 02 vs Hawthorn

    It's Game Day and after mixed results in the first two weeks of the season the Demons have the opportunity to capitalise on their good form last week when they take on the Hawks at the MCG today ... READ MORE

    Demonland | March 23

  • Training  

    Friday, 22nd March 2024

    Demonland Trackwatcher Kev Martin and I attended the Captain's Run at Gosch's Paddock on this lovely sunny morning to bring you the following observations from the training session ... READ MORE

    Demonland | March 22

  • Training  

    Tuesday, 19th March 2024

    Demonland Trackwatchers Kev Martin & Walking Civil War attended Tuesday morning's training session at Gosch's Paddock to bring you the following observations ... READ MORE

    Demonland | March 19

  • Training  

    Saturday, 16th March 2024

    Demonland Trackwatchers Kev Martin and Dee Zephyr wandered down to Gosch's Paddock on Saturday morning to bring you their observations from the Captain's Run in the lead up to Sunday's Round One match against the Bulldogs ... READ MORE

    Demonland | March 16

  • Farewell  

    Angus Brayshaw Retires

    After 167 games including the drought breaking Premiership Angus Brayshaw has made the heart breaking decision to medically retire from football as a result of a series of serious head knocks over his nearly decade of footy. We wish Gus all the best and he'll always be a hero at Demonland ... READ MORE

    Demonland | February 22

  • Latest Podcast  

    PODCAST: Koltyn Tholstrup Interview

    I interview the Melbourne Football Club’s newest recruit Koltyn Tholstrup to have a chat about his journey from the farm to the Demons, his first few weeks of preseason training, which Dees have impressed him on the track and his aspirations of playing Round 1 ... LISTEN

    Demonland | December 14

  • Latest Podcast  

    PODCAST: Jason Taylor Interview

    I interview the Melbourne Football Club's National Recruitment Manager Jason Taylor to have a chat about our Trade and Draft period, our newest recruits, our recent recruits who have yet to debut as well as those father son prospects on the horizon ... LISTEN

    Demonland | November 27

  • Next Match 

    .

    Round 03

       vs   

    Saturday 30th March 2024
    @ 07:30pm (AO)

  • MFC Forum  

  • Match Previews & Reports  

  • Training Forum  

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  • 2024 Player Sponsorship

  • Topics

  • Injury List  


      PLAYER INJURY LENGTH
    Jake Lever Knee Test
    Clayton Oliver Hand Test
    Oliver Sestan Concussion Test
    Steven May Ribs 1 Week
    Lachie Hunter Calf 1 Week
    Daniel Turner Hip 2-3 Weeks
    Charlie Spargo Achilles 2-4 Weeks
    Shane McAdam Hamstring 3-5 Weeks
    Jake Bowey Shoulder 7 Weeks
    Jake Melksham ACL 12-14 Weeks
    Joel Smith Suspension TBA

  • Player of the Year  


        PLAYER VOTES
    1 Christian Petracca 27
    2 Steven May 25
    3 Max Gawn 21
    4 Jack Viney 20
    5 Bayley Fritsch 19
    6 Clayton Oliver 18
    7 Christian Salem 12
    8 Blake Howes 11
    9 Jack Billings 10
    9 Alex Neal-Bullen 10

        FULL TABLE
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