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Whispering_Jack

2019 AFL National Draft prospects: The next batch

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2 hours ago, Mach5 said:

 

Because no one knows conclusively, but you’re aiming to select players who have a higher probability of making it.

Saying that one player has slightly outperformed another is disingenuous and misses the point. If Curnow & Weideman both develop into quality tall forwards but Curnow is marginally better, it doesn’t make an earlier selection of Weideman to be the wrong decision, because he probably had less chance than Curnow of turning out to be a Mitch Thorp.

I might be wrong, but I think the correct way to judge a recruitment or list management team is to gauge how many hits they had versus misses, not comparing them to others who have performed better but taken later, if they’ve still developed into a competent AFL player for at least a period, and also referencing that against other players left at that pick who actually did make it.

And even then, not “making it” can be a fallacy. For instance, Lincoln McCarthy may have been judged a miss at Geelong for Wells, but he was held back by injuries and the performance of others he was competing with for a spot in the 22. His performance at Brisbane has shown that he was worth the selection. Likewise a player like Menegola at the cats would get a tick from Geelong (although not getting a game as much this season for similar reasons), however the original team that drafted him (Hawthorn? Fremantle?) wouldn’t get the same tick, but do they maybe deserve it?

Excellent post. Nuanced and intelligent perspective.

Many posters could take a lesson from this, but of course, won't.

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2 hours ago, Mach5 said:

 

I’m not trying to misrepresent your point, don’t try to misrepresent mine.

You’re not half as smart as you think you are.

I think he probably is.

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Keeping my eye on Ash, Gould, Flanders, Serong and Stephens of those listed. It was my first time watching most of these guys on Friday, however I though Green looked the best of the lot. 

 

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The final matches of the Under 18 Championships will be played today at Marvel Stadium and, like it or not, as Melbourne’s season unravels, there is a distinct possibility that the Demons will be in the running for a player like Noah Anderson - 

AFL No.1 draft pick fancy Noah Anderson likened to Western Bulldogs star Marcus Bontempelli

For those who have access to Foxtel, the games will be televised so watch them or check your local guides and tape away.

It won’t be long now and we’ll all be preoccupied by phantom drafts so in the meantime, here are the Draft Central Power Rankings: July 2019

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I’ve been banging on about Noah Anderson all year. As sad as it is, we might actually land him!  

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Just how many Crows supporters will be cheering us on this weekend?

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I'd like us to get creative this year and maybe send our first rounder to GWS, they have a young kid Green coming through who'll get earlish bids on (top 5), which they'd have to match with one of their 1st rounders. I was thinking we could send our first and second/third round picks to them for a combination of their first pick (from Essendon) plus another high pick, they don't have a second round pick this so maybe next years - plus Patton and Bonar/Langdon.

Result: MFC out: Picks 3 & 39  -  GWS out: Pick 9, Patton & Bonar. We could then look at Serong/O'Neil/Stephens (I'm just going of draft boards, not an expert by any means). We'd end up with a good tall, depth plus high end talent.

 

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35 minutes ago, whatwhatsaywhat said:

gw$ have two first round picks - theirs and the peptides

riley garcia from wa just did his knee, sad to see

They might need to use both for Greene. He's tipped to go top 5

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Serong sounds a likely type if we do not have picks 1 or 2.

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Posted (edited)

Reports on AFL that Orazia Fantasia want's to go back to South Australia. What impact could this have on the draft? My first thought being that Diodora would want Adelaide's first round draft pick.

Then, upon further reflection, I realised that's ridiculous, it's not how he rolls. He would want Adelaide's first pick and Port Adelaide's first pick too!

Edited by TRIGON

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12 minutes ago, TRIGON said:

Reports on AFL that Orazia Fantasia want's to go back to South Australia. What impact could this have on the draft? My first thought being that Diodora would want Adelaide's first round draft pick.

Then, upon further reflection, I realised that's ridiculous, it's not how he rolls. He would want Adelaide's first pick and Port Adelaide's first pick too!

Not like Mahoney the South Aust boy who rolled over in the Lever deal.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, whatwhatsaywhat said:

gw$ have two first round picks - theirs and the peptides

riley garcia from wa just did his knee, sad to see

I’m very good mates with his Dad. 

Was having such a cracker of a season. Will still get picked. 

Ed: possible PCL. Will have scans when back home. 

Edited by McQueen
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2 minutes ago, McQueen said:

I’m very good mates with his Dad. 

Was having such a cracker of a season. Will still get picked. 

Good luck to him. Plenty of time if he is good enough

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20 minutes ago, McQueen said:

I’m very good mates with his Dad. 

Was having such a cracker of a season. Will still get picked. 

Ed: possible PCL. Will have scans when back home. 

Heard that and thought that's better than what could have been, good to see the WA boys get the win some really good kids from both sides, Jaxon Prior is one of our clubs boys, not up there with some of the other boys but comes from good stock.

Really liked the look of Serong and Ash from VC

 

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32 minutes ago, Pennant St Dee said:

Heard that and thought that's better than what could have been, good to see the WA boys get the win some really good kids from both sides, Jaxon Prior is one of our clubs boys, not up there with some of the other boys but comes from good stock.

Really liked the look of Serong and Ash from VC

 

Have watched Ash a couple of times with the bushies as i am back doing some work for their under 16 developments squad.

He is a beauty, plays across half back and puts his speed to good use. Ability to set up from half back but also rebound and intercept are quiet elite. Next stage for his development is transitioning towards more midfield exposure. 

Very driven individual who shows fantastic leadership (named co-captainfor Vic Country) and maturity beyond his years. 

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53 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Have watched Ash a couple of times with the bushies as i am back doing some work for their under 16 developments squad.

He is a beauty, plays across half back and puts his speed to good use. Ability to set up from half back but also rebound and intercept are quiet elite. Next stage for his development is transitioning towards more midfield exposure. 

Very driven individual who shows fantastic leadership (named co-captainfor Vic Country) and maturity beyond his years. 

wonder what the likelihood of us drafting him would be..should we end up with a pick between 3-6/7?..

he could replace salem and christian could move up the ground to supply the forwards?

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2 hours ago, Rocky said:

wonder what the likelihood of us drafting him would be..should we end up with a pick between 3-6/7?..

he could replace salem and christian could move up the ground to supply the forwards?

Veey likely even if we have a pick 5 to 7.. I expect the likes of Anderson, Rowell, Serong, Young, Kemp to all feature around the top end mark.

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4 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Have watched Ash a couple of times with the bushies as i am back doing some work for their under 16 developments squad.

He is a beauty, plays across half back and puts his speed to good use. Ability to set up from half back but also rebound and intercept are quiet elite. Next stage for his development is transitioning towards more midfield exposure. 

Very driven individual who shows fantastic leadership (named co-captainfor Vic Country) and maturity beyond his years. 

Said to my mate today whilst there was some good young prospects in todays game Ash stood out was composed in traffic, made good decisions and showed skills under pressure would be a good pick up IMO. I think Rowell is a  very safe pick but wouldn't be surprised if from Kemp, Rivers or Green end up being outstanding midfielders 

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41 minutes ago, Pennant St Dee said:

Said to my mate today whilst there was some good young prospects in todays game Ash stood out was composed in traffic, made good decisions and showed skills under pressure would be a good pick up IMO. I think Rowell is a  very safe pick but wouldn't be surprised if from Kemp, Rivers or Green end up being outstanding midfielders 

Whats your thoughts on Devon Robertson mate? I didnt get a chance to watch his game today but has been impressively consistent throughout the champs. 

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it's funny that wa won the champs but two vic metro and two vic country boys are expected (at this stage) to go top four in rowell, anderson, young, and ash

and you'd think green might attract a bid in the top 5 too

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Can we another pick inside the top 10 by trading our 2020 1st round pick? I wonder if any clubs have low expectations of us improving next year...

If we have pick 3 and are taking best available, and it's Gould. Then we can/should offload a defender like a Frost or OMAC as part of any kind of package with that 2020 1st round pick.

Then with pick 7-10 you get a speedy mid like a Dylan Stephens..

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1 hour ago, John Demonic said:

Can we another pick inside the top 10 by trading our 2020 1st round pick? I wonder if any clubs have low expectations of us improving next year...

If we have pick 3 and are taking best available, and it's Gould. Then we can/should offload a defender like a Frost or OMAC as part of any kind of package with that 2020 1st round pick.

Then with pick 7-10 you get a speedy mid like a Dylan Stephens..
 

As polarising as Frost is, we cant afford to off load any quick players at the moment. we are so darn slow all over the field we need to keep the likes of frost and gawn. If we have a top 5 pick, I'm convinced we'll pick up Ash for this reason. 

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